Tier 4 (Continued)
41. Omarion Hampton (RB15, LAC) – If you asked ChatGPT to build you a prototypical NFL running back, odds are the output would be Omarion Hampton. Big, powerful, fast, and a skillset that can keep him on the field for all three downs. Najee Harris’ fourth of July freak accident could hinder his availability at the start of the season, opening the door for Omarion Hampton to run away with the job if he comes out of the gate blazing. His ADP is a tad higher than fellow rookie TreVeyon Henderson, but Hampton shares that same top 10 upside. Hampton’s a stud, but as the great JJ Zachariason has brought up, there’s traditionally been a cap on running backs’ pass-catching upside in a Greg Roman offense. Each scenario is different, and Hampton’s an uber-talented prospect. But it’s something to keep in mind.
42. Kyren Williams (RB16, LAR) – The disconnect between the game of football and the game about the game of football can blur perceptions of a player’s production. Yes, Kyren Williams is coming off back-to-back 1,000 rushing-yard seasons, but his value relies on a large volume of touches and touchdowns. He was one of six backs with over 300 attempts last season, but his 4.11 yards per carry was the worst among the group (which averaged 4.96 ypc). Williams was the only member of the 300+ carry club with an explosive run rate under 2%. I believe Blake Corum and Jarquez Hunter will get more playing time this season to help keep Williams fresh. A drop in touches may not be disastrous for his floor, but it certainly is for his ceiling. If the Rams offense takes a step back with Stafford ailing, what if Williams doesn’t hit double-digit touchdowns? I like Williams as an RB2, but you’ll have to draft him as an RB1. It’s just not a price I’m willing to pay.
Tier 5
43. Breece Hall (RB17, NYJ) – We’ve still yet to see the pre-injury explosiveness that made us fall in love with Breece Hall, and offseason chatter continues to get louder that the Jets backfield will become a Lions-esque committee with new head coach Aaron Glenn bringing Tanner Engstrand with him from Detroit. I’ve been a big fan of Hall since his rookie season, but I prefer to draft the other backs going around his ADP, such as Kenneth Walker III and Omarion Hampton.
44. David Montgomery (RB18, DET) – Montgomery has scored 25 total rushing touchdowns over the past two seasons, averaging 15.4 points per game and finishing as RB16 & RB15 in his two seasons as a Lion. Although he shares the backfield with Jahmyr Gibbs, he’s still averaged over 200 carries and 30 targets per season with Detroit. And he’s missed three games each season! He gets 53% of the team’s carries inside the 5 and outcarried Gibbs inside the 10 last season, 33 to 26. Even if the Lions’ offense takes a step back in 2025, it’s not suddenly going to be one of the worst in the league. Monty’s a high-end RB2 being drafted closer to FLEX value, but offensive line concerns and the loss of Ben Johnson bloody up Knuckles’ ceiling just a bit.
45. Jordan Mason (RB19, MIN) – Jordan Mason was incredible after inheriting lead-back duties from an injured Christian McCaffrey. His 15% explosive run rate was the 2nd highest among qualifying backs, and his 5.2 yards per carry and 3.3 yards after contact ranked inside the top-5. Mason’s 25.5% avoided tackle rate was just outside the top 5, ranking sixth. I’m not concerned with the incumbent starter, Aaron Jones Sr. The 30-year-old back (31 in December) ranked in the bottom 10 in avoided tackle rate (18.4), yards after contact (2.5), and explosive run rate (9.8). Jones was also one of seven running backs with an explosive run rate under 10%. Vikings Head Coach Kevin O’Connell has already stated that Mason will be involved on the goal line. He’s an upside play who’s proven capable with little to no risk. I’m incredibly high on Mason compared to consensus, but I believe in the talent and opportunity. I expect we’ll see him on a hefty share of championship teams at the end of the fantasy season.
46. Tyreek Hill (WR21, MIA) – Tyreek Hill turned 31 this offseason, a number that’s seen just six receivers play in at least 10 games while still averaging over 12 points per game. Hill’s numbers dropped across the board last season, from yards per target, yards per route run, explosive play rate, to nearly every efficiency metric. You can absolutely credit some of that to not having Tua under center for much of the season, but banking on a return to the top 10 from an aging receiver whose greatest asset is his game-breaking speed is a recipe for disaster. I get it’s hard to let go of a perennial WR1 overall threat, but drafting Hill as anything more than a WR2 is buying all the risk.
UPDATE: As bad as the Dolphins’ offensive line has looked, I’m concerned about their offense as a whole. The Tyreek Hill saga has just gotten weirder and weirder. Add in his age, injury issues, off-the-field and in-the-locker-room issues, I’m not convinced he’s capable of bouncing back to elite wide receiver status.
47. Joe Burrow (QB4, CIN) – Joe Burrow (almost) has it all. He has arguably the best wide receiver duo in the league. He has an awful defense that hemorrhages points, leading to splashy passing stats. He’s got “rizz,” as the kids say. But his career high rushing total is 259 yards, which is what holds him back from that upper echelon of fantasy quarterbacks. Don’t hear what I’m not saying. Joe Brr is an absolute stud and locked in as a QB1 for fantasy. But, he’ll be hard-pressed to ever finish as the QB1 overall due to his lack of rushing upside.
48. Patrick Mahomes II (QB5, KC) – Sure, Patrick Mahomes‘ fantasy production has been down over the past two seasons. Did he throw for the fewest passing yards in his career in 2024? Yup. But the fewest passing yards for Mahomes’ career (3,928) was still good for the sixth-most in the NFL. He finished third in attempts (581) and completions (392), and had a top 10 completion percentage (67.5%). After getting mollywhopped in the Super Bowl, I’m not counting out a motivated Patrick Mahomes. His status as an elite fantasy option is getting put out to pasture way too early. I’ll gladly take the discount, especially considering many forget he’ll chip in 300-400 yards on the ground. Being able to wait a few rounds and still draft an elite quarterback like Mahomes will afford you a shot to draft the likes of James Cook or Kenneth Walker III instead of David Montgomery or Aaron Jones Sr. That’s the type of edge that wins fantasy championships.
49. Jalen Hurts (QB6, PHI) – Jalen Hurts has the rushing stats and tons of “tush push” tuddy’s, but has yet to eclipse 3,900 passing yards or 25 passing touchdowns. I’m not saying he’s incapable of surpassing those numbers, and Hurts’ four straight seasons of 10+ rushing touchdowns have afforded him a safe floor and extremely high ceiling. But, the lack of passing upside, particularly in the touchdown department, paired with the reliance on rushing touchdowns, gives me enough pause to place him in the tier just below the top three.
50. Calvin Ridley (WR22, TEN) – One of my post-hype sleepers, Calvin Ridley, goes against the grain of my typical wide receiver targets. Yes, he’s over the age of 30, but he has a little less wear and tear on his body after missing nearly two full seasons for reasons other than injury. Ridley posted over 1,000 receiving yards and 64 catches with the human meme machine Will Levis under center. First overall pick Cameron Ward has a rocket arm, and the duo has the potential to form one of the most explosive QB/WR combos in the league. The best part is that there’s little to no risk baked into their draft positions. I prefer to avoid wide receivers 30 or older in fantasy due to their historical tendency to decline in production, but Calvin Ridley is an exception to the rule. It’s not just because he missed nearly two seasons in 2021-22 for non-injury-related reasons. It’s that he showed us last season that he’s still got it, even with sub-par quarterback play.
UPDATE: He didn’t play much this preseason, but all signs point to Ridley gobbling up targets like Kirby.
51. Zay Flowers (WR23, BAL) – After his first 1,000-yard season and second consecutive with over 70 catches and 100 targets, Zay Flowers isn’t getting the respect he deserves. I understand he’s on a run-first offense, but he also has Lamar Jackson as his quarterback. You know, the two-time MVP coming off a 4,172-yard, 41 passing touchdown season? I’m not concerned about DeAndre Hopkins eating into Flowers’ share at this point in his career. Flowers is being drafted at his floor, and won’t have to improve on much to jump into the teens.
52. Jameson Williams (WR24, DET) – Despite playing second fiddle to Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jameson Williams had a mini-breakout in 2024. Catching seven touchdowns and 58 passes on 91 targets and earning his first 1,000-yard season was good enough for a solid WR2 finish. At just 24 years old, Williams still has the potential to take a step forward and dance around that high-end WR2/low-end WR1 threshold. He’s the definition of a boom/bust wide receiver, but his spike weeks are the ones that win matchups.
53. Courtland Sutton (WR25, DEN) – Courtland Sutton surpassed 1,000 receiving yards for the first time since 2019 and set career highs in targets & receptions. He wasn’t overly efficient, posting a solid but unspectacular 2.13 yards per route run. Evan Engram could eat into Sutton’s target share, and an expected improvement in the running game with the additions of rookie RJ Harvey and veteran JK Dobbins could allow Denver to lean more on the run. Sutton is a solid WR2 option, but nothing more.
54. D’Andre Swift (RB20, CHI) – With all the changes the Chicago Bears made this offseason, it was a surprise they didn’t add any backfield competition for D’Andre Swift. His first year as a Bear was a bummer, sporting a career-low 3.8 yards per carry, the first in his career under four. Although Swift disappointed from a rushing perspective, he performed through the air. Among backs with a minimum of 35 targets, Swift ranked top 10 in yards per target (7.4), yards per reception (9.2), and yards after the catch per reception (9.6). He caught 42 passes on 52 targets for 386 yards. Those totals have a reasonable chance to go up with new Bears head coach Ben Johnson running the offense. Detroit running backs saw over 100 targets under Johnson in each of the last three seasons, including 70 for Swift as a Lion in 2022. With an ADP of RB24, the risk is already baked in. If the Bears’ offense takes the leap expected under Ben Johnson, a top 10 season is within reach.
UPDATE: The narrative that Ben Johnson doesn’t like D’Andre Swift may have suppressed his pricetag this offseason, but that notion was wiped away in the preseason. I’m excited to see what he’s going to do in this revamped Bears offense with little backfield competition.
Tier 6
55. Isiah Pacheco (RB21, KC) – Pacheco went down with a fractured fibula in Week 2 and didn’t return until Week 13 last season. He understandably had some rust and never looked exceptionally like the fiercely aggressive runner we saw over his first two seasons. As the lead back for the Kansas City Chiefs, Pacheco should be considered a safe-ish RB2 for fantasy purposes. However, the backfield is more crowded than we’ve seen in recent seasons with the Chiefs bringing back Kareem Hunt, signing Elijah Mitchell, and drafting Brashard Smith out of SMU. Pacheco is the top dog to start the season, but if he struggles to return to form, it could turn into an ugly committee in Kansas City.
56. Xavier Worthy (WR26, KC) – I love the upside of Xavier Worthy, but so much of his value hinges on how many games Rashee Rice winds up missing due to suspension. While Rice is out, Worthy likely becomes Mahomes’ top target. He’ll still be involved when Rice returns and maintains the same weekly ceiling, but with more mouths to feed, Worthy becomes a much more volatile WR2.
UPDATE: With Rashee Rice officially suspended for the first six games, he’ll operate as the top option in what I expect to be a much more explosive Chiefs offense than we’ve seen in the past few seasons.
57. Terry McLaurin (WR27, WAS) – I was all in on Terry McLaurin last season, and it paid off in the form of his first top 10 fantasy finish. But besides touchdowns, McLaurin’s stats were on par with his career averages. What pushed him into the top 10 was catching double-digit touchdowns for the first time in his career. Unfortunately for Scary Terry, things get very scary for receivers the season after they catch 10 or more touchdowns. From 2020 to 2024, 18 different wide receivers accounted for 31 instances of a wide receiver catching 10 or more touchdowns. Only six of them were able to accomplish the feat in consecutive seasons. Based on historical evidence, there’s a less than 30% chance he repeats 10+ touchdowns. His ceiling remains a WR2, and considering his current holdout, drafting him among the top 20 receivers is a dicey proposition.
58. DeVonta Smith (WR28, PHI) – The tempered Eagles’ passing attack has room for merely one elite fantasy wide receiver, and that title belongs to AJ Brown. DeVonta Smith is talented enough to put up WR1 seasons as he did in 2022, but with AJB around, Smith’s ceiling is capped. He’s a relatively consistent WR2 who periodically goes on hot and cold streaks.
59. DK Metcalf (WR29, PIT) – With a new team, a run-first offense, and a soon-to-be 42-year-old Aaron Rodgers, DK Metcalf is one of the most challenging players to rank this season. His range of outcomes is immense, but he’s talented enough to produce in nearly any situation. Metcalf should get peppered with targets from Rodgers, who’s known to lock on to and feed his favorite target. Metcalf very well may be his only target.
60. George Pickens (WR30, DAL) – The move to Dallas for George Pickens doesn’t move the needle much for me from a fantasy perspective. Yes, he’ll finally have a quality quarterback in Dak Prescott. But instead of being Batman, Pickens slides into the role of Robin beside CeeDee Lamb. If Dak can stay healthy, Dallas should have a potent offense that offers Pickens plenty of opportunity for big games. He’ll remain a boom/bust WR2.