Tier 6 (Continued)
61. Chris Olave (WR31, NO) – Finishing as a WR2 in each of his first two seasons, many expected Chris Olave to make the jump to WR1 in 2024. Unfortunately, he didn’t get the chance after two concussions in a matter of weeks ended his season early. If Olave can get somewhat decent quarterback play, he’s going to make a lot of us look silly for ranking him so low. Here’s to a full season of good health.
62. Chuba Hubbard (RB22, CAR) – Chuba Hubbard was left for dead after the Panthers drafted Jonathan Brooks in the 2024 draft. The former Oklahoma State Cowboy took full advantage of his early-season opportunity with Brooks recovering from a torn ACL. Hubbard scored double-digit fantasy points in eight of the first 10 games and over 18 in half of them. His workload was expected to drop with the return of Brooks in Week 12, but in a cruel twist, Brooks tore his ACL for a second time in as many years in Week 15. Hubbard comes into the season as the unquestioned starter for the Panthers, but don’t discount the addition of Rico Dowdle. Hubbard is a rock-solid RB2, but Dowdle’s involvement has the potential to eat away at his upside.
63. Evan Engram (TE4, DEN) – I’m eager to see what Evan Engram can do in Denver as Sean Payton’s “Swiss Army Knife”. He’s a dark horse to finish as TE1 overall.
64. Alvin Kamara (RB23, NO) – Although he’s past the dreaded 30-year-old threshold, Alvin Karma is set to age more gracefully than his fantasy counterparts. Despite never rushing for over 1,000 yards, Kamara has finished as an RB1 in seven of eight seasons, ranking a respectable RB16 in 2022. His ADP currently sits at RB15 and 37 overall, which is a little too high for my taste. Slipping even just a round or two would make his cost much more palatable.
65. Rome Odunze (WR32, CHI) – Rome Odunze led the Bears receivers in a plethora of categories during his rookie campaign: yards per target (7.3), yards per reception (13.6), deep targets (23), air yards share (30.8%), and average depth of target (13.8), the only Bears receiver that averaged over 10. Odunze’s involvement increased as the season progressed, a common trend among rookie receivers. He averaged 5.3 targets per game from Weeks 1-8, with the average jumping to 6.9 from Weeks 9-17. If Ben Johnson truly turns around the Bears’ offense, Odunze is primed for a tier jump or three in his second season in Chi-town.
66. RJ Harvey (RB24, DEN) – The hype surrounding Broncos rookie RJ Harvey was smothered with a wet blanket when Denver signed veteran JK Dobbins, but that may have been an overreaction. Harvey handled all the carries with the first team offense in the Broncos’ first preseason game, and actually ran more routes than Dobbins despite not playing a single third down snap. Harvey can handle a heavy workload, and if Sean Payton gives the bulk of the carries to the rookie, he’d immediately become a locked-in RB2.
UPDATE: A perfect fit in Sean Payton’s offense, his chances of a significant role rose with the release of second-year back Audric Estime. He should see work in the passing game at a minimum, with potential for much more. A dark horse to finish as the top rookie running back in fantasy.
67. Matthew Golden (WR33, GB) – The rich got richer in Green Bay with the addition of Texas WR Matthew Golden in the first round of the draft (the first receiver drafted in the first round by the Packers since Javon Walker in 2002). His ability to stretch the field with elite speed and play both outside and in the slot is a perfect fit for what the Packers want to do on offense. I wouldn’t be shocked if Matthew Golden finishes the season ranked inside the top 25, but the crowded Packers receivers room is always a concern.
68. Travis Hunter (WR34, JAC) – The Jaguars made a splash by trading up to draft Heisman Trophy winner WR/CB Travis Hunter. Jacksonville has already made it known that they view him as a wide receiver first. Considering Hunter’s skillset and the offensive mind of new Jags head coach Liam Coen, the upside is mouthwatering. But we genuinely have no idea how much he’ll play on offense until we see how he’s deployed in the regular season.
Tier 7
69. Khalil Shakir (WR35, BUF) – The Buffalo Bills decided to embrace a wide receiver by committee approach after the departure of their WR1 Stefon Diggs. No Buffalo receiver surpassed 100 targets, but Khalil Shakir led the way with 97. Shakir scored double-digit fantasy points in 11 of 15 games, but over 16 points just three times. He’s what I like to call a McDouble, a solid but unspectacular fantasy option with a high floor but low ceiling.
70. James Conner (RB25, ARI) – James Conner tends to be underrated from a fantasy perspective, but I have a cluster of concerns for him heading into 2025. After topping the 200-carry threshold just twice in his first six seasons, Conner managed to do so in back-to-back years over 2023-2024, also attaining his first two 1,000-yard seasons. I try to avoid the label of “injury prone,” but Conner’s never played in a full season, missing two or more games in each of his eight years in the NFL. He also turned 30 in May. That’s not old in “real life” (says the 38-year-old), but it’s ancient in RB years. When you’re looking to cook up a productive running back, start with an age-30 back, throw in a dollop of career-high workload, and sprinkle in a lengthy injury history, you’ve got a recipe for disaster.
71. Emeka Egbuka (WR36, TB) – Initial reactions to Emeka Egbuka landing in Tampa were a half-hearted, “just wait until next year”. You may not have to. Although the Bucs’ wide receiver depth chart looks crowded on paper, Egbuka is in line to produce from Day 1. As much as I love Chris Godwin, I’m not holding my breath for an immediate return to pre-injury form from a devastating ankle injury at age 29. Mike Evans will be 32 at the start of the season. As much as Tampa uses three wide receiver sets, Egbuka should see the field plenty in his rookie season. It’s not out of the question for him to wind up as the top rookie wide receiver of this class and completely smash his ADP.
UPDATE: With an aging Mike Evans and Chris Godwin battling to return from a devastating ankle injury, Egbuka’s largest obstacle to significant playing time was second-year wideout Jalen McMillan. Now, McMillan is expected to be out until at least October with a neck strain, opening up a gaping hole ready for Egbuka to serve as the replacement for the missing receiver production.
72. Kaleb Johnson (RB26, PIT) – Considering the opportunity and offensive scheme, Kaleb Johnson couldn’t have landed in a better spot for his fantasy value. Arthur Smith loves to run the ball, and he has two capable backs in Johnson and Jaylen Warren. Although Johnson is the superior talent, Warren has been productive over his first three seasons, and I expect him to be a thorn in Johnson’s side, much like he was to former teammate Najee Harris. If given the bulk of the carries, Johnson can put up solid numbers, but with Warren expected to share the load, the rookie running back is more of a borderline RB2.
73. Tank Bigsby (RB27, JAC) – I’ve been in on Tank Bigsby since last year, and he’s one of my favorite post-hype sleepers. Even before the steady drumbeat of positive training camp reports, Bigsby makes more sense. He outproduced Etienne in nearly every rushing category last season and was among the best in the league in both explosive run rate and yard after contact. Don’t shy away from him because he doesn’t have top three potential. As much as I like Bigsby, his upside is capped by his lack of involvement in the passing game. There is absolutely ZERO risk drafting Bigsby at his current ADP. Don’t mistake his lack of top 10 upside for lack of value. Drafting a potential top-24 back outside the top 40 is an incredible boost for your fantasy team.
74. Tony Pollard (RB28, TEN) – Tony Pollard was better than you remember last season. He was certainly better than I remembered. Pollard surpassed 1,000 rushing yards for the third straight season and chipped in 41 catches to finish as RB21. What has me excited for his 2025 prospects are the underlying metrics. Pollard’s 2.76 yards after contact was the sixth-best at the position, and his 5.0% explosive run rate was among the best backs in the league, ahead of De’Von Achane, James Cook, and Bijan Robinson. His main competition for touches is Tyjae Spears, who missed five games last season due to injury. The oft-injured back is already set to miss most of the preseason and potentially the first few weeks after suffering the dreaded high ankle sprain in the Titans’ first preseason game against the Packers. Pollard’s a safe bet as your RB2 and could make a push for borderline RB1 status if Spears cedes the majority of touches.
75. Caleb Williams (QB7, CHI) – Despite facing pressure on 29.4% of his dropbacks, merely 2% of Caleb Williams‘ throws were considered turnover-worthy. While his passing numbers left much to be desired, he delivered on his rushing potential. Williams had the 7th most rushing yards among quarterbacks (489) and averaged 6.0 yards per carry. But my excitement for Williams’ potential jump has more to do with his new head coach, former Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson. It’s confirmed he’ll be calling plays in Chicago, which is thrilling to hear for the Bears’ fantasy potential. The Bears made significant moves to address the offensive line, as well as adding two dynamic weapons with their first two draft picks: tight end Colston Loveland and wide receiver Luther Burden III. All things considered, Williams is my dark horse pick to finish as the QB1 overall this season.
76. Brock Purdy (QB8, SF) – *Paul Heyman voice* BRRRROOOCKKKK LESNAR PURDY…sorry…Brock Purdy offers a safe floor thanks to the Kyle Shanahan system, but his ceiling is higher than most realize. He’s coming off back-to-back seasons of finishing as a QB1 on a points per game basis. Already averaging 450 pass attempts over that same period, he has a legitimate shot at surpassing 500 in 2025 with the offseason gutting of the 49ers’ defense. Even with Brandon Aiyuk set to miss a solid chunk of the early season and Deebo Samuel now a Commander, Purdy has plenty of weapons in George Kittle, Ricky Pearsall, Jauan Jennings, and, of course, Christian McCaffrey. With an ADP outside the top 100 players, he’s an excellent target in 1QB leagues. He makes for a safe superflex play right on the QB1/QB2 border.
77. Keon Coleman (WR37, BUF) – Keon Coleman is my favorite kind of post-hype sleeper. Those who were in on him last season expected him to slide right in and become the next Stefon Diggs, and because that didn’t happen, they’ve written him off. No, Coleman wasn’t the most targeted receiver on the Bills. Dalton Kincaid had more targets, too. But he tied for the team lead in receiving touchdowns (4) despite playing in just 13 games. He was also Mr. Hailee Steinfeld’s go-to guy downfield. Coleman led the Bills in deep targets (18) and more than doubled the average depth of the target of Kincaid and nearly tripled that of Khalil Shakir.
UPDATE: Although Coleman lacks the ceiling of a top-five fantasy receiver, the ingredients are there for a mouthwatering season: A team without a true alpha. An elite quarterback who excels at throwing the ball deep. A team that throws deep at one of the highest rates in the league.
78. Stefon Diggs (WR38, NE) – Well on his way to a seventh straight 1,000-yard season, Diggs’ season ended abruptly in October with a devastating ACL tear. After an eight-game stint in Houston, Diggs finds himself on his third team in three seasons, joining New England via free agency. Although all reports have been positive in regards to his health, don’t underestimate the hills that Diggs still has to climb. An ACL tear can be a career-altering injury for any athlete. Considering Diggs is 31, a return to pre-injury form is improbable. His status for the start of the season is still up in the air, and all things considered, Diggs isn’t someone I’m targeting.
79. Quinshon Judkins (RB29, CLE) – Until his legal matters are resolved, Quinshon Judkins is the biggest question mark of 2025. If he misses fewer than six games, I’d be willing to draft him somewhere in the 80-100 range. Anything more than that, he’s outside the top 50 RBs.
UPDATE: Good news, Bad news. Good news? Charges were dropped against Quinshon Judkins. Bad news? He’s still unsigned, and it’s reported the Browns won’t sign him until the NFL finishes its investigation, in which Judkins could still face a suspension. There’s a significant risk in drafting Judkins, but a considerable reward as well if he misses just a few games, or none at all.
Tier 8
80. Kyler Murray (QB9, ARI) – Playing in his first full season since 2020, Kyler Murray finished as a borderline QB1 on a points per game basis. I’d stop short of calling him a bust, but he certainly didn’t live up to offseason expectations, especially with the addition of rookie wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. Among quarterbacks who played in at least 10 games, Murray’s sixth-ranked 68.8% completion percentage is deceptive. When looking at his adjusted completion percentage*, the number does go up, but his rank drops all the way to 16th. He ranked 20th in yards per attempt among qualified quarterbacks, and a touchdown-to-interception ratio of 21:11 leaves much to be desired. Murray’s rushing prowess provides him with a safe floor, but his ceiling is closer to QB7/QB8 than it is to QB1/2.
*Completion Percentage adjusted for drops, spikes, throwaways, hit as thrown, and batted passes.