Tier 8 (Continued)
81. Bo Nix (QB10, DEN) – I’m not a Nix hater, I’m just not a Bo-liever. Last year’s breakout is driving up the price, and fantasy managers are buying all the risk. Nix didn’t have a 300-yard passing game until Week 11, and he only had one more after that. Nix had 10 passing touchdowns through Week 10, failing to throw a single touchdown in half of the first ten games. What kept him afloat during those lean passing games was his rushing. Nix finished inside the top ten in rushing yards for quarterbacks with 430, but not because he ran remarkably well. Nix had a yards per carry of 4.7, but that doesn’t matter when you have as many attempts as Nix did last season; He was one of five quarterbacks with at least 90. But what happens when that number goes down? The Broncos have second-round stud RJ Harvey and recent free agent signing JK Dobbins as their one-two punch. I expect the running back touches to return closer to the norm for a Sean Payton offense this season. I don’t see a world where Nix finishes inside the top five, so drafting him at QB8 is buying all the risk. Unless his passing numbers improve significantly, a drastic drop in rushing attempts could be devastating for Nix’s fantasy value in 2025.
82. Jordan Love (QB11, GB) – Jordan Love already has a top-five fantasy finish under his belt. But can he do it again, and can he stay on the field? Despite a down season statistically, Love didn’t play all that badly last season. His completion percentage remained virtually the same from 2023, and he improved on multiple efficiency stats, including yards per attempt, average depth of target, and deep throw completion percentage, among them. His depressed counting stats can partially be attributed to an MCL injury in Week 1 that hobbled Love all season, and eventually led to a groin injury in Week 8 that hobbled him even further. I saw nothing that concerns me from an efficiency standpoint with Love that would lead me to put a pause on the excitement for a potential tier jump most had for him a year ago. The difference is that you’re not buying all the risk by drafting him inside the top 10 at the position, unlike last season. Love’s current ADP of QB17 is criminal with the potential explosiveness of the Packers’ offense.
UPDATE: I still love (sorry) his game and believe he can finish inside the top 10. But considering the injuries to receivers Jayden Reed (sprained foot) and Dontayvion Wicks (calf), and Love having to undergo surgery on his thumb on his non-throwing hand, there’s some risk here. With the Packers already missing Christian Watson for the foreseeable future and Love missing valuable preseason practice reps, he could start the season slowly.
83. Jerry Jeudy (WR39, CLE) – In the 12 games Jameis Winston started for Cleveland last season, Jerry Jeudy averaged 7.8 targets, 5.1 receptions, 79.6 receiving yards, and 15.7 yards per reception. Without Winston, Jeudy averaged 10.2 targets, 5.8 receptions, 54.8 receiving yards, and 9.4 yards per reception. Despite averaging nearly three more targets and an additional catch when Winston wasn’t on the field, Jeudy’s receiving yards dropped by about 25 yards, and his yards per reception dropped from 15.7 to 9.4. Winston’s love for the YOLO ball meshed well with Jeudy’s skillset. Unfortunately for Jeudy, Winston left for the Giants in free agency. The Browns’ quarterback room is easily one of the worst in the league, and it’ll likely be a QB carousel not conducive to fantasy production. An ADP of WR33 isn’t awful, but I’d rather take a shot on the upside on the guys going around him, like Chris Olave or Rome Odunze.
84. Travis Etienne Jr. (RB30, JAC) – After a top-five finish in 2023, Travis Etienne Jr. had a full-on fantasy faceplant last season. He fell to RB35 in 2024, and if it hadn’t been for his usage in the passing game, it could have been a whole lot worse. Among the 31 running backs with at least 150 carries last season, Etienne ranked 30th in yards per carry, 21st in explosive run rate, 20th in yards after contact per attempt, and 30th in percentage of team carries inside the five. I know people are excited to see what ETN can do with Liam Coen, but it feels eerily similar to the Rachaad White/Bucky Irving situation from just a season ago: an incumbent starter with pass-catching chops who is an inefficient runner is replaced by an efficient, explosive “backup” who is a capable pass catcher but has not been asked to do it at the pro level. I recognize I am extremely low on Etienne compared to the masses. But I trust my process, and I’m willing to eat crow if I wind up on the wrong side of this take.
UPDATE: Reportedly on the trading block (along with Tank Bigsby), even if the backfield is shared, Etienne can put up productive numbers in Liam Coen’s offense. If one of the backs is traded, both their values likely jump.
85. Cooper Kupp (WR40, SEA) – It’s hard to pass up on a fantasy football legend the likes of Cooper Kupp when you see him still hanging around in the eighth or ninth round. But let someone else draft the former Triple Crown winner. Kupp recently turned 32, no longer has offensive mastermind Sean McVay calling plays, and hasn’t played a full season since 2021. Oh, and his quarterback is no longer his breakfast buddy, Matthew Stafford. If you want to roster Kupp as a WR3, be my guest. But you’ll be passing on the upside of guys going around him, the likes of Matthew Golden and Rome Odunze.
86. Tyler Warren (TE5, IND) – Despite the stench of the putrid quarterback play he’ll likely deal with in his rookie season, Tyler Warren is a favorite tight end target for me this season. Warren should slot right into an every-down role on a team that has a plethora of above-average pass catchers, but lacks an alpha. With an ADP around 100 overall, there’s not much risk but plenty of reward in taking Warren as your starting tight end for fantasy.
UPDATE: Believe it or not, Daniel Jones being named the starter for the Colts is good news for the Colts’ pass catchers. Tyler Warren played nearly every single starter snap with the Colts this preseason and should see a healthy target. I’ll stop short of saying he’ll have a Bowers-like season, but Warren will remind people why he was the top-ranked rookie going into the NFL draft.
87. Michael Pittman Jr. (WR41, IND) – It was revealed that Michael Pittman Jr. played with a fractured back nearly all of 2024. He didn’t look like the same guy who averaged over 98 catches, 1,053 yards, and ~5 touchdowns, finishing as WR13, WR20, and WR17 over the previous three seasons. I get why people are down on him after last year’s WR41 finish. But he wasn’t as bad as you think. Pittman led the Colts in targets for the third straight year (albeit in two more games than Josh Downs) and was the first read on 73% of his targets. He was the first read most often, sitting at 14.3%, which is good news considering that both Anthony Richardson Sr. and Daniel Jones targeted their first read over 50% of dropbacks last season. Both the Giants and Colts ranked inside the top 10 for first-read pass percentage, with Indy’s 53.5% being the third-highest rate in the league. Pittman is being drafted outside the top 100 players. That’s WR49, after last season’s faceplant finish of WR41. The hate has gone way too far. He’s quite literally being drafted under his floor.
88. Justin Fields (QB12, NYJ) – Finally free from Chicago and Pittsburgh, Justin Fields heads to …the Jets. Yes, I know, I know, it’s the Jets, but hear me out. I love the hiring of Aaron Glenn, and with him comes Tanner Engstrand, the first-time offensive coordinator who served under Ben Johnson as the Lions’ passing game coordinator for the past two seasons. Fields does have a better arm than he’s shown in the pros. He threw for 5,701 yards and 62 touchdowns in his college career. Notably, his completion percentage and QB rating have improved in every one of his first four seasons in the NFL. If Fields can become just decent enough of a passer, a top-five fantasy finish is within reach. In 1QB, I’d pair him with a Justin Herbert-type high-floor QB to offset the risk of Fields. In Superflex, Fields is my prototypical QB2 target—an ADP value with upside.
89. Trevor Lawrence (QB13, JAC) – Trevor Lawrence enters 2025 with a new head coach for the fourth time in five seasons. Thankfully, Liam Coen hails from the much-beloved, uber-productive Sean McVay coaching tree. In just one season as Tampa Bay’s offensive coordinator, Coen rejuvenated both the Bucs offense and Baker Mayfield‘s career. There was a lot to like about how Lawrence played pre-shoulder injury last year. He had the third-highest accuracy rate (83.25) and the second-highest average depth of target (9.8) among quarterbacks with at least 10 starts. Lawrence is coming off back-to-back seasons of over 4,000 passing yards, and averaged 321 rushing yards and about four rushing touchdowns in his first three seasons, adding nearly four extra points per game. Jacksonville addressed the offensive line this offseason and made a splash by trading up to draft Heisman Trophy winner WR/CB Travis Hunter. Paired with Pro Bowl sophomore wideout Brian Thomas Jr., the duo already appears to headline the best arsenal of weapons TLaw has had in his professional career. Is a QB1 overall season in his future? Likely not. But a top-10 fantasy finish is undoubtedly attainable. Maybe as early as this year.
90. Trey Benson (RB31, ARI) – Second-year back Trey Benson has an ADP around RB46 and has—stop me if you’ve heard this before— league-winning potential if he manages to get the bulk of backfield carries in Arizona. Benson matched Conner’s 4.6 yards per carry over the full season and got better as the year progressed. From Weeks 10-17, Benson bested Conner’s yards per carry, 5.7 to 4.8. Over that same period, Benson had a higher avoided tackle rate, explosive (20+ yard) run rate, and yards after contact. Granted, that was in about 1/4 of the touches, but it proves the point I’m trying to make: Benson is more than capable of producing at the highest level. I believe there’s a good chance Connor sees a drop in production and/or misses multiple games due to injury. Either could lead to a backfield takeover by Benson.
91. T.J. Hockenson (TE6, MIN) – Nearly two years after tearing his ACL and MCL in Week 16 of the 2023 season, T.J. Hockenson is right around the ADP I’m generally starting to consider drafting a tight end. Not considering last year’s mid-season return and working his way back to form, Hockenson was a top-five fantasy tight end in three of the previous four seasons. Jordan Addison is set to miss the first three games of the season, giving Hockenson an early-season advantage in potential targets and chemistry building with new quarterback J.J. McCarthy. Hockenson is a phenomenal option at tight end due to his reasonable cost and relatively high floor and ceiling. He’ll remind people how talented he is.
92. Rashee Rice (WR42, KC) – Without the pending multi-game suspension looming over his head, Rashee Rice would be MUCH higher on this list. We don’t know how many games he’ll miss, and we don’t know when the suspension will begin. I’m ranking him here assuming a four- to six-game suspension. If it were more than that, I’d drop him outside the top 100 players. He could be a midseason trade target to hold and stash if the team that drafts him in your league struggles to start the season.
UPDATE: Officially suspended for six games, he’ll miss the start of the season. But if you can get him late in drafts or via mid-season trade, he’ll be ready to roll Week 7 and have every chance to dominate the second half of the fantasy football season.
93. Mark Andrews (TE7, BAL) – Mark Andrews struggled most of last season, but finished strong. Over the second half of 2024, Andrews had 25 catches on 33 targets for 316 yards and SIX touchdowns. His tuddy total was the second most in the league over that span, and his 9.6 yards per target and 12.6 yards per reception were both top 10 at the position. I’m still a big fan of Isaiah Likely, but he recently had surgery to repair a broken bone in his foot. He’s not sure to be ready by the start of the season, although it’s not considered a long-term issue. All things considered, I’m beginning to like Mark Andrews more and more at his ADP.
94. Braelon Allen (RB32, NYJ) – As I mentioned in Breece Hall‘s blurb, we’ve yet to see him back to the pre-injury form. The drum beats continue to get louder, suggesting a Lions-esque committee could be in store for the Jets with new offensive coordinator Tanner Engstrand following Aaron Glenn from Detroit. We’ve seen flashes of elite upside from Braelon Allen. If Hall were to go down with an injury, Allen has RB1 upside.
UPDATE: The expectations of a shared backfield look true, and Braelon Allen has looked the part. If the Jets’ offensive line has improved considerably, Allen is capable of big-time production on limited touches.
95. Baker Mayfield (QB14, TB) – Last season’s 41 touchdown barrage by Baker Mayfield produced a career-high 7.3% touchdown rate (the number of touchdowns thrown per passing attempt) after averaging 4.5% over the previous four seasons. Just four quarterbacks have had a touchdown rate over 7% in the past five seasons (per teamrankings.com). Touchdown rate wasn’t the only stat Baker produced an outlier in last year. He also had the best competition percentage of his career in 2024 at 71.4%, nearly ten percent higher than the rate of his previous four years (61.9%). There are concerns surrounding Mayfield’s supporting cast, as well. Mike Evans is a surefire Hall of Famer, but he’ll be 32 this August. Chris Godwin‘s return to the field is up in the air after a grueling Week 7 dislocated ankle. Even when he returns, he’ll be eased into action, and a return to form is far from a guarantee. Tristan Wirfs, arguably the best LT in the league, is uncertain to be ready for the start of the season. And with Liam Coen leaving for Jacksonville, the Bucs promoted passing game coordinator Josh Grizzard to offensive coordinator. Tampa is banking on a plug-and-play OC swap, but significant question marks remain. Mayfield should end up a borderline QB1, but his ADP inside the top 10 quarterbacks is a classic overpay after a career season.
96. C.J. Stroud (QB15, HOU) – C.J. Stroud‘s sophomore step back isn’t all that surprising when you dig into the details. Stroud faced pressure on 34.8% of his drop-backs (the highest rate in the NFL) and was sacked 52 times (the second most). When given time, Stroud was just fine, with a completion percentage of 70.1% and yards per attempt of 7.3. When pressured, his completion percentage dipped to 47.6% and yards per attempt dropped a whole yard to 6.3. Thankfully, Houston revamped its line this offseason, signing a handful of veterans in OG Laken Tomlinson, OT Cam Robinson, and OT Trent Brown, trading for OG Ed Ingram, and drafting OT Aireontae Ersery in the 2nd round. The offensive line should be improved, but to what degree will determine Stroud’s true bounce-back potential. Another positive development is Houston’s acquisitions of both talent and depth at wide receiver: signing Christian Kirk and drafting Iowa State teammates Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel at 34th and 79th overall. Stroud’s being drafted way below his floor around the QB 18-20 mark. The difference is that a QB1 overall season is still in the realm of possibility for Stroud.
97. Zach Charbonnet (RB33, SEA) – Zach Charbonnet holds tremendous upside if something were to happen to Kenneth Walker. What makes him one of the most valuable handcuffs in all the land is his viability as a FLEX starter even if he remains KWIII’s understudy all season. Charbs averaged 11 points per game last season, good for 29th among RBs with at least 100 carries. In the six games Walker missed last season, Charbonnet averaged 19.2 ppg, including games with point totals of 25.7 and 38.3. He’s a tremendous value coming off the board around the 116th pick.
98. J.K. Dobbins (RB34, DEN) – J.K. Dobbins took the fantasy world by storm with his electric start to his Chargers career, rushing for a combined 166 yards and two touchdowns through the first two weeks of the 2024 season. Unfortunately for Dobbins, those would be the only games he’d rush for over 100 yards the entire season. It was a mirage you could see right through if you looked closely enough. Over his first four games, he had an undoubtedly unsustainable 6.1 yards per carry and 16.1% explosive run rate. He finished the season with respectable ratios: 4.64 yards per carry and a 5.1% explosive run rate, but nowhere near the elite numbers of his first two games. Dobbins signed late in free agency with the Broncos, after the draft and after drafting RJ Harvey in the second round. Sean Payton has a record of preferring to use multiple backs, and Dobbins will get a little run. But this backfield belongs to Harvey, and Dobbins is little more than a handcuff with some FLEX value. Pass.
Tier 9
99. Sam LaPorta (TE8, DET) – I kinda think Sam LaPorta is being slept on. LaPorta was solid last season. His yards per route run were very comparable year-over-year (1.95 to 1.8), his yards per target and yards per reception went up, and he had two additional red zone targets. The problem was that his acquisition cost was way too high. He was TE2 off the board and the 33rd player overall, around or before guys like Malik Nabers, James Conner, Mike Evans, and James Cook. The emergence of Jameson Williams also led to 2 fewer targets per game and a total of 37 fewer on the season (he played in one less game, too). Sometimes, it’s just not enough volume. I don’t have an issue with LaPorta being the fourth tight end drafted. I do have an issue with where you have to draft him. A current overall ADP of 50 would require you to take him over the likes of TreVeyon Henderson, RJ Harvey, Tetairoa McMillian, and even teammate Jameson Williams. Not a chance I’d take him over a single one of the guys in that range.
UPDATE: The emergence of rookie wide receiver Isaac TeSlaa as yet another pass-catching option for Jared Goff could chip away at an already lower-than-ideal target share.
100. Tucker Kraft (TE9, GB) – Tucker Kraft could be the most disrespected tight end in fantasy. Kraft quietly caught seven touchdowns last season, and it wouldn’t be a shock for him to repeat (or improve) on that number. He’s a low-risk, moderately high-reward selection with an ADP outside the top 100 players.