Tier 9 (Continued)
101. Cam Skattebo (RB35, NYG) – I have Cam Skattebo and Tyrone Tracy Jr. ranked butt-to-butt because of Skatt’s bum hammy. The training camp injury has kept the rookie off the field for a few weeks, but the hope is he’ll be able to get some run before the preseason is over. You’ll see why I’m not a fan of Tracy in his blurb below, but Skattebo’s injury sets back what I feel like is an inevitable backfield takeover. Missing invaluable training camp touches and a chance to show his skills in preseason games gives Tracy a longer leash to start the season. I’m still drafting Skattebo everywhere I can; I’d much rather stash him to start the season than drop the waiver wire bag on him when he becomes the G-Men’s RB1.
UPDATE: His hammy issue prevented the preseason takeover, but he was able to play in the final preseason game. He’s as inevitable as Thanos. Wait…maybe that’s not a good thing.
102. Tyrone Tracy Jr. (RB36, NYG) – It’s relatively simple: Tyrone Tracy Jr. was a waiver wire darling that paid dividends thanks to a cost of $Free.99. But Tracy was simply not very good. Tracy was tied for 20th in yards per carry (4.4), 24th in yards before contact (1.5), 18th in yards after contact (2.8), 25th in avoided tackle rate (20.3%), and 35th in explosive run rate (9.4%). And that’s without mentioning the five fumbles Tracy committed in 2024, tied for third-most among RBs. As we know, ball security is job security, and the leash for Day 3 running backs is not long. The Giants drafted running back Cam Skattebo in the fourth round, and I expect him to overtake this backfield before the season’s end. If not for a training camp hamstring injury, it may have been before the season’s start. Tracy’s lackluster efficiency, explosiveness, and the addition of Skattebo make him a complete fade for me in 2025.
103. Joshua Palmer (WR43, BUF) – With Mack Hollins and Amari Cooper gone, two of the three deep threats from last season are no longer on the Buffalo Bills. They brought in both Palmer and Elijah Moore to help fill the void, but I prefer Palmer. Despite finishing fourth in targets on the Chargers last season, Palmer accounted for 25.6% of Los Angeles’ air yards and ranked second on the team in deep targets with 18. Among the teams’ receivers with at least 10 catches, Palmer had the highest yards per reception with 14.97. His ADP outside the top 200 players is borderline fantasy malpractice. If things between him and Allen click, Palmer can easily become a viable every-week fantasy starter.
UPDATE: Scroll back up to the Update for Keon Coleman. Replace Coleman’s name with Joshua Palmer. Take your TI-89 calculator and multiply the blurb by .752999999. Boom…science.
104. Travis Kelce (TE10, KC) – One of the most dominant tight ends in fantasy football history was still productive in 2024, but he wasn’t really the same Travis Kelce. He had under 1,000 receiving yards for the second straight season after surpassing the total in the seven seasons prior. He’ll remain one of Mahomes’ most trusted targets, but there are a lot of mouths to feed in Kansas City. He’ll stay firmly in the TE1 conversation and flirt with top 5 status. But at age 35, his days of complete dominance are a thing of the past. Remembering him comes in flashbacks and echoes. Tell myself it’s time now, gotta let go.
UPDATE: Rashee Rice being suspended for six games is about two more than I anticipated, leaving a blank space in targets for nearly half the fantasy football regular season. Plus, come on, how could I not bump Kelce up after proposing to Taylor Swift? It’s a love story, Kelce, just say “Yes”.
105. Jordan Addison (WR44, MIN) – With the announcement of his three-game suspension to start the season, I’d expect to see Jordan Addison‘s ADP drop just a little from its current placement of 78th overall. But don’t let it fall too much, because far too often fantasy managers forget we play a weekly game. As of Week 4, Addison slides right back into a stable WR2 with a sprinkle of week-winning spike weeks.
106. Kyle Pitts Sr. (TE11, ATL) – A few fun facts about Kyle Pitts Sr.:
-He’s never had a yards per reception under 12.
-He’s finished outside of the Top 15 tight ends just once, in his sophomore season, when he played just 10 games.
-Last season, he ranked 13th at the position in receiving yardage (602) and touchdowns (4).
-He was tied for the 5th most targets over 20+ yards among tight ends.
There have also been trade rumors swirling around Pitts this offseason, but on the bright side, a trade to the right situation could increase his value. All in all, there is a wide range of outcomes for Kyle Pitts this season, but in that range is a top-five finish. With the state of the tight end position, he won’t have to do much to finish as a TE1. Being drafted among backup running backs and 3rd string wide receivers, Pitts is easily worth the dart throw at his next-to-nothing cost.
107. Josh Downs (WR45, IND) – I like Josh Downs, but he’s one of the most overvalued players in all of fantasy football. He’s a solid PPR option and someone I wouldn’t mind as a FLEX or bye-week fill-in. Downs averaged 9.2 points per game in 2023 and 13.1 in 2024. On the flip side, he has one of the worst QB situations in the league and will have to compete for targets with Tyler Warren, Michael Pittman Jr., Alec Pierce, and AD Mitchell. He’s another McDouble: solid floor, limited ceiling. If you have a risky WR1 and/or WR2, Downs would make sense as your WR3 from a roster construction standpoint. Based solely on draft cost, I’d rather shoot for upside with someone else.
108. Dak Prescott (QB16, DAL) – Rayne Dakota Prescott is another guy who I’m drastically lower on than most. I’m not into hot takes or interested in false claims for clicks. But at age 32, coming off yet another season with significant time missed due to injury and projected to have one of the league’s worst offensive lines, I’m out on him. O-line stalwart Zack Martin retired this offseason from an offensive line that already had its issues with him on it. Dak could make me look like a complete fool, especially with newly acquired George Pickens starting opposite of Pro Bowler CeeDee Lamb. But I’ll take my chances betting against an old, oft-injured quarterback with a turnstile-filled offensive line.
UPDATE: I’ve struggled with how to rank Dak Prescott this year. I am down on him more than most, with his age, return from injury, and questions surrounding the offensive line giving me pause. But the offensive line impressed this pre-season and looks to be able to handle the retirement of Zack Martin better than I had anticipated. I still have my concerns, but with the duo of Lamb and Pickens, Dak could have “one more in him”.
109. J.J. McCarthy (QB17, MIN) – The J.J. McCarthy hype was so palpable after Week 1 of the 2024 preseason, you could practically taste it. Then it was revealed he suffered a torn meniscus in his right knee and would miss his entire rookie season. It was quite the gut punch, but he’s back and in practically the same situation for 2025. I don’t get why the same energy isn’t surrounding him this draft season. Sam Darnold stepping in and having a career year should thrill McCarthy believers. They have one of the best offensive lines in football. Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison (after his three-game suspension) will line up at wide receiver. TJ Hockenson is healthy. Aaron Jones Sr. is a year older, but they added Jordan Mason in the backfield. I. Just. Don’t. Get. It. McCarthy is an ideal target in 1QB leagues, boasting a perfect pairing of low acquisition cost and untapped upside.
110. Tua Tagovailoa (QB18, MIA) – No quarterback has a broader range of outcomes than Tuanigamanuolepola Tagovailoa. After suffering three terrifying concussions over two years, retirement was a legitimate option for Tua during and after last season. Even with the extremely valid health concerns, I believe his talent, Mike McDaniel on the joysticks, and the weapons at his disposal mean Tua can put up crooked numbers with the best of them. He’s being underdrafted, and understandably so. But the upside is worth the risk of drafting Tua with an ADP of QB21.
UPDATE: I have serious concerns for the Dolphins’ offense as a whole. Starting running back De’Von Achane has missed time with a calf strain. There’s hope he’ll be ready for Week 1, but his timetable to return remains uncertain. Tyreek Hill is battling an oblique injury that is keeping him from the practice field, but it isn’t expected to force him to miss regular-season games at the moment. But my biggest concern is the offensive line. The injury bug has hit the average at best o-line, and unfortunately for dolphins fans, there’s not much depth to help fill the void. Tagovailoa throwing two touchdowns in the preseason finale is encouraging, but taking two sacks against a Jaguars team not playing its starters is not.
111. Christian Kirk (WR46, HOU) – It’s been reported by Texans beat reporter DJ Bien-Aime that early in training camp, Kirk has seemingly developed into a safety blanket for C.J. Stroud. Kirk produced when he was on the field, averaging 14 yards per catch and 1.84 yards per route run in 2024, just behind former Jacksonville teammate and stud receiver Brian Thomas Jr. The last time Kirk played a full season, he finished as WR11 in total points. He’s not going to finish anywhere near that this season, but especially in PPR formats, he’s a solid WR3 being drafted outside the top 50 receivers. Draft Kirk instead of having to pay up to grab him off waivers a week or two into the season.
UPDATE: The hype continues to surround Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel, but Kirk enters the season as the starting slot for the Texans. His ADP is dropping, but I’m still buying.
112. Jauan Jennings (WR47, SF) – With Deebo Samuel Sr. now a member of the Washington Commanders and Brandon Aiyuk set to miss a minimum of about five games, Jauan Jennings finds himself in a position to serve as San Francisco’s WR1 to start the season. …wait, what’s that I’m hearing? Ah. I must have used a monkey’s paw, because Jennings is both battling injury and locked in a contract dispute with the Niners. Jennings hit GM John Lynch with the “pay me or trade me” ultimatum, and to this point, Lynch has called his bluff. If things get resolved and Jennings ends up on the field sooner rather than later, he has the potential to win weeks with monstrous blow-up performances.
113. David Njoku (TE12, CLE) – Can you believe this will be David Njoku‘s ninth season in the league? After just one in his first five seasons, Njoku has had three straight seasons with a TE1 finish. His upside is capped with the monstristy that is the Cleveland quarterback room, but he’s a set it and forget it starter for fantasy.
UPDATE: Joe Flacco officially being named the starter is a positive for all Browns’ tight ends.
114. Brenton Strange (TE13, JAC) – Brenton Strange put up solid numbers when given the opportunity last season. In the games he played at least 60% of snaps, Strange averaged five targets, 3.4 receptions, 7.8 yards per reception, and caught two touchdowns. In the games without Engram, Strange leveled up, adding five fantasy points per game. Engram is gone. Christian Kirk is gone. You’re getting a guy with a clear path to the top 12 for the price of a late-round bench warmer. He doesn’t have to be a world-beater to smash that value.
115. Colston Loveland (TE14, CHI) – Colston Loveland wasn’t supposed to be the first tight end drafted, but the Bears shocked us all in taking him 10th overall before presumed top option Tyler Warren. He has the talent to become a perennial top-five tight end in fantasy football, but I have a few concerns with him getting there in his first year. Chicago has a collection of promising pass catchers, and while I’m extremely high on Caleb Williams this season, he can’t feed them all a ton of targets.
116. Justin Herbert (QB19, LAC) – This ranking isn’t a knock on Justin Herbert‘s talent. I love what Jim Harbaugh is doing for the Chargers from an NFL or “real” football standpoint, just not from a fantasy football perspective. Herbert’s 7.7 yards per attempt were the highest of his career, and he finished with a QBR over 100 for the first time. However, he averaged fewer than 30 passing attempts for the first time in his career, had just two games with over 300 passing yards, and had more games with 1 or 0 passing touchdowns (9) than with two or more (8). Throwing just three more touchdowns in 2024 despite playing in four more games than 2023 is not great. Herbie is a safe-ish pick at QB15, but his ceiling’s capped in the Harbaugh-led offense. I’d rather C.J. Stroud or Jordan Love for the upside.
117. Drake Maye (QB20, NE) – Most of Drake Maye‘s production has come on the ground, raising both his floor and ceiling. But before the former Tar Heel can leap into the next level, Maye must first drastically improve his passing production. Though he has 12 career starts, Maye has thrown multiple touchdowns in just four of his first 12 starts, and he’s yet to have a 300-yard game.
118. Jayden Reed (WR48, GB) – Green Bay boasts one of the strongest receiver rooms in the entire NFL. Great for Jordan Love‘s upside, not so much for the consistency of the Packers’ pass catchers. But how in the world is Jayden Reed going outside the top 100 players? He finished as WR29 in total points despite Love missing two games and being hampered by injury from Week 4 on. Yes, his targets decreased by nearly 20 from his rookie season, but he still scored six touchdowns and increased his receiving yardage thanks to improved efficiency. Reed ranked fourth in yards per reception (15.58), yards after the catch per reception (7.33), and 12th in yards per route run among qualifying receivers. Additionally, he tied BTJ and Alec Pierce for the fourth most receptions of 20+ yards (12). Reed is just entering his third season and is continuing to develop. Even with the competition for targets, Reed is a big-play threat on one of the most explosive offenses in the league. With a healthy Love, Reed still has plenty of upside.
UPDATE: Expected to be ready for Week 1, seeing Jayden Reed continue to walk around in a boot due to a lingering foot sprain doesn’t instill much confidence.
119. Deebo Samuel Sr. (WR49, WAS) – If he can stay healthy, Deebo Samuel Sr. may wind up one of the best values of 2025. Kliff Kingsbury flopped as a head coach, but he’s salvaged his reputation as an offensive mind with the work he’s done as the Commanders’ offensive coordinator. His claim to fame has been his ability to adapt his version of the air raid offense to fit the strengths of his personnel. That’s what excites me most when considering a bounce-back season for Deebo. His multifaceted skillset is a perfect fit for a creative mind like Kingsbury. Depending on how Terry McLaurin‘s contract situation finalizes, Samuel could find himself as the team’s WR1. It’s unlikely, but whether he’s the top option or not, Deebo’s worth the gamble at his WR38 ADP.
Tier 10
120. Rico Dowdle (RB37, CAR) – Despite leaving Dallas for the land of the pines, Rico Dowdle once again finds himself stuck behind an incumbent starter. But don’t sleep on Dowdle’s potential to carve out a role in the Carolina offense. He’s a much better pass catcher than Chuba Hubbard, and per Dwain McFarland, Dowdle ran most of the running back routes with the starters and was on the field in third-and-long situations. The Panthers could have themselves a full-blown committee, lowering the ceiling of Hubbard and bringing Dowdle into standalone FLEX territory. But as we saw in Dallas last season, Dowdle can put up solid fantasy numbers if given the touches. He’s practically free with an ADP of 142 overall. He’s not a must-draft, but he’s certainly someone to keep an eye on early in the season.
121. Ray Davis (RB38, BUF) – As much as the Buffalo Bills run the ball, all of their running backs should be on your radar. Ray Davis is the direct handcuff to James Cook, who recently secured the bag. So dreams of a holdout or trade leading to Davis becoming the starter are, in the words of *NSYNC, “Gone”. But Davis is a worthy stash at the end of the benches as a lottery ticket.
122. Jacory Croskey-Merritt (RB39, WAS) – The belle of the preseason fantasy football (I’m sorry), and an intriguing deep sleeper who’s impressed this preseason.
UPDATE: What rock have you been sleeping under? The JCM preseason hype train shipped Brian Robinson Jr. to San Fransico, opening the door for a major role in the offense.
123. Dylan Sampson (RB40, CLE) – Similar to the Rashee Rice/Xavier Worthy discussion, so much of Dylan Sampson‘s fantasy value relies on what becomes of Quinshon Judkins‘ potential/inevitable suspension. If Judkins misses the entire season, Sampson is in line for a heavy workload and immediately becomes a borderline RB2. But if Judkins plays in 2025, his return would relegate Sampson back to handcuff territory.
UPDATE: With the question marks still surrounding Judkins’ NFL debut, Sampson has the most to gain in his absence and has played well in the preseason. ody
124. Ollie Gordon II (RB41, MIA) – Not draftable, but a name I’m watching very closely on the waiver wire.
UPDATE: Achane is hurt, and his backup, Jaylen Wright, is too, opening the door for Ollie Gordon to be the Week 1 starter for the Dolphins. Both are expected to return early in the season, but nothing is ever a guarantee in the NFL. He’s going to be a popular late-round pick with the opportunity available to him right out of the gate.
125. Ricky Pearsall (WR50, SF) – With the Jauan Jennings contract situation and Brandon Aiyuk set to miss the start of the season, Ricky Pearsall could start the season as the WR1 for the Niners. He finished his rookie season strong and could emerge as a WR2 if he ends up as a top option for Brock Purdy.
UPDATE: About a week before the season, and still no resolution for Jauan Jennings. Perasall is in line to enter the season as WR1 for Purdy and the Niners.