Tier 10 (Continued)
126. Jaylen Warren (RB42, PIT) – Just as Jaylen Warren truthers thought he’d get his time to shine with Najee Harris moving on to LA, the Steelers drafted a running back in the third round. Pittsburgh added Kaleb Johnson, a versatile back coming off a 1,537 rushing yard and 21 touchdown season. Knowing awful Arthur Smith’s disregard for common sense, the season likely starts as a true 50/50 committee. But I expect Johnson to become the lead back before long. Despite what you may hear elsewhere, Jaylen Warren is Just A Guy.
127. Tre’ Harris (WR51, LAC) – The second-round rookie was getting some significant offseason hype, but performed poorly in his first preseason action. He earned one target and was unable to reel it in, finishing with a big fat goose egg on 28 snaps. Considering the recent signing of Keenan Allen, Harris’s breakout potential has taken a serious hit. He’s worth a late-round flyer, but not a must-stash by any means.
128. Dallas Goedert (TE15, PHI) – Dallas Goedert had the worst fantasy finish of his career in 2024, but there aren’t any noteworthy or surprising statistics that point to a production cliff. Goedert played in only 10 games, the fewest of his career. However, compared to the prior five seasons, Goedert’s stats either exceeded or remained virtually unchanged in 2024. His targets per game went down a whopping — checks notes — half a target. His yards per route run last season ranked 17th. Not at the tight end position, among all players. Among tight ends? Goedert’s YPRR ranked 2nd to George Kittle (2.5 to 2.4). It’s pretty straightforward if you examine the numbers and apply common sense. Goedert is virtually being drafted at his floor.
129. Jared Goff (QB21, DET) – Jared Goff‘s floor is a lot lower than most want to admit. It’s not just the fact that the Lions lost Ben Johnson as a play caller; it’s the fact that their offensive line underwent a significant overhaul this offseason with the retirement of C Frank Ragnow and the loss of OG Kevin Zeitler in free agency. The Lions offense isn’t going to become one of the league’s worst, and Goff (hopefully) won’t spontaneously combust, but with an ADP of QB10, he won’t wind up on any of my fantasy teams in either 1QB or Superflex.
130. Jayden Higgins (WR52, HOU) – C.J. Stroud‘s supporting cast will look much different this year after a serious step back from his 2023 Rookie Of The Year season. Stefon Diggs signed with New England in free agency. Tank Dell is likely out for the entire 2025 season thanks to a gruesome Week 14 knee injury. The duo averaged a total of 13.4 targets between them, so there are plenty of vacated targets to go around for the new look Texans WR corps. Jayden Higgins is talented enough to make a push for second billing in Houston’s target hierarchy, but he’ll battle with veteran Christian Kirk for it. Unless Higgins erupts over the final few weeks of the preseason, he’s more of a draft-and-stash than a potential Week 1 fantasy starter.
131. Rachaad White (RB43, TB) – Rachaad White had his starting job pilfered by Bucky Irving last season, but considering his career 3.8 yards per carry average, it’s not all that surprising. As long as White continues to see a solid amount of targets, he is viable as a FLEX play. But White suffered a groin injury in Week 1 of the preseason and is expected to miss time. That could open the door for teammate Sean Tucker to carve out a larger role, and it wouldn’t be Bucky losing touches.
UPDATE: He’s returned from injury, but the backfield belongs to Bucky Irving. He’s a great handcuff, but won’t be consistent enough to trust as even a FLEX.
132. Jakobi Meyers (WR53, LV) – Jakobi Meyers is a McDouble: high floor, very low ceiling. He won’t win you any weeks by himself, but he’s a fair PPR bench option and a potential FLEX fill-in during bye weeks.
133. Rashid Shaheed (WR54, NO) – Rashid Shaheed had a blistering start to the 2024 season, scoring double-digit fantasy points in four of six games and catching a touchdown in three. Sadly, the breakout was snipped short in Week 6 due to a knee injury that ended his season. Shaheed’s involvement in the offense was on the rise, averaging nine targets from Weeks 4-6 after averaging just under five in the first three. There is concern with the Saints’ Quarterback situation. Shaheed would benefit most from Shough’s big arm ability, but he did see seven targets in the lone game he and Rattler played together. Shaheed should see enough volume as the set starter across from Chris Olave to return value on his WR57 ADP. The Saints’ suspect defense should lead to the offense having to air it out plenty as they play from behind. He’s a threat to take it to the house every time he touches the ball, and garbage time points count just the same in fantasy.
134. Najee Harris (RB44, LAC) – Until we know the true severity of Najee Harris‘ Fourth of July eye injury, it’s impossible to rank him accurately. At the time of writing, Harris had just begun to return to practice to run drills, but nothing more. I don’t expect him to miss multiple regular-season games, but the truth is, at this point, we don’t know. If/when Harris returns, expect him to get just enough work to hold FLEX value while lowering the floor for stud rookie Omarion Hampton.
UPDATE: His Fourth of July eye injury looks to have cost him his role in the Chargers offense.
135. Michael Penix Jr. (QB22, ATL) – Michael Penix Jr. showed some growth over his first three starts in the Falcons’ final three games. He did throw an interception in each game and totalled just three touchdowns, but his yardage totals and touchdowns increased with each game. He’s a wild card from a fantasy perspective with a wide range of outcomes. Penix finds himself in a great situation with a plethora of weapons, but an older prospect with an injury history does have a cloud of risk following him. If you draft him in 1QB leagues, be sure to pair him with a safe, high-floor option like Geno Smith in case Penix flops.
136. Luther Burden III (WR55, CHI) – I like Luther Burden III’s dynasty prospects, but he’ll have a hard time carving out a significant role among the crowded group of pass catchers in Chicago. He’s a draft-and-stash player for now.
137. Jaylin Noel (WR56, HOU) – The second of two Iowa State wide receivers drafted by the Texans, I’ve found Jaylin Noel making his way on more and more of my teams. He’ll have every opportunity to earn touches in a wide-open receiver room, and his cost is zero.
Tier 11
138. Brandon Aiyuk (WR57, SF) – Similar to the Joe Mixon situation, it’s unclear when we can expect to see Brandon Aiyuk back on the field. But unlike Mixon, we know Aiyuk will miss a significant portion of the beginning of the season. Week 6 has been repeatedly floated as Aiyuk’s expected return date. Head coach Kyle Shanahan recently reiterated “…which means that could be Week 10, it means it could be Week 5, but that’s the area where I start thinking about it…” when speaking about a trio of 49ers working their way back from ACL injuries.
It’s a tricky situation when considering drafting Aiyuk. An ADP of 113 for a player of his caliber is alluring, but there’s a hidden cost you may not be considering. He’s guaranteed to miss nearly half of the fantasy football regular season, even if he returns Week 5. That’s half the season you’re down a bench spot, putting yourself at a disadvantage not only for depth, but stashing that potential breakout player we’re all chasing. Even when Aiyuk does return, he won’t be at full speed as soon as he steps on the field. The most obvious issue is that there’s a very real chance he misses even more time. A healthy Aiyuk on a potentially pass-heavy 49ers team is the stuff dreams are made of, but I’d much rather wait to attempt to trade for him closer to his return than deal with the baggage that comes with rostering him.
UPDATE: Nothing changed for Aiyuk, but I can’t consider drafting him before any of the players above.
139. Jake Ferguson (TE16, DAL) – Jake Ferguson is the fantasy football equivalent of a slice of bread and a glass of water. He has his role. He’ll get the job done. But you’re not excited about starting him.
140. Sam Darnold (QB23, SEA) – Good on Sam Darnold for cashing in all his chips from his career revival in Minnesota, but he won’t have the Vikings’ offensive line in Seattle, where he may find himself seeing ghosts once again. Seattle was one of the worst pass-blocking units in the entire league in 2024, with an average time to pressure for their quarterbacks of 2.5 seconds. When Darnold had over 2.5 seconds before pressure last season, he completed 73.8% of his passes. But when he had 2.5 seconds or less? His completion percentage plummeted to 45.5%. The Seahawks did make moves in an attempt to shore up the o-line. But even if the line improves, Darnold’s going to see an exponential increase in pressure when he drops back in Seattle. I’m avoiding at all costs.
UPDATE: Similar to the Dak Prescott situation, I was down on Sam Darnold due to questions surrounding the offensive line. But the Seahawks’ moves this offseason appear to have paid off, granted in the preseason. If Darnold is afforded time to throw, we’ve seen him perform. Even with an impressive preseason, that’s still a big if.
141. Chris Godwin (WR58, TB) – The obvious and most prominent looming issue for Chris Godwin is his return from a devastating ankle fracture suffered in Week 7 of last season that required not just one, but also a recently revealed second surgery. He also fractured his fibula and suffered a torn deltoid ligament. This is his second significant injury since 2021, when he tore his ACL and MCL in Week 15. If/when Godwin returns to the field, he’ll be battling more than just age and injury to get back up to form. Add in the emergence of Jalen McMillan last season and the first-round pick spent on Emeka Egbuka, and the Bucs’ wide receiver corps suddenly got real crowded. I’d rather take a chance on a player with higher upside and fewer red flags.
UPDATE: Even without McMillan for most of the season, Egbuka’s emergence this preseason has nearly pushed Godwin completely off my board.
142. Darnell Mooney (WR59, ATL) – At WR46, there’s little risk in drafting Darnell Mooney. He’s a solid WR3 who can win you weeks. If the Falcons’ offense rises with Penix under center, he could easily jump into the top 24. He could miss a game or two at the start of the season due to a shoulder injury sustained in practice, but it’s not considered long-term.
143. Aaron Jones Sr. (RB45, MIN) – I’ve understandably caught a lot of heat for my exceptionally low rank of Aaron Jones Sr., but I’ve got the rationale to back it up. Jones is 30 years old, ancient for a running back. In the past 10 seasons, only 14 running backs 30 or older averaged 12+ points per game and played in at least eight games. He was inefficient, ranking in the bottom 10 in avoided tackle rate, yards after contact, and explosive run rate among all running backs with at least 150 carries. Jones totaled -2 yards on 13 carries inside the five, which led to the offensive acquisition of Mason, who KOC has made it clear will handle the short-yard and uber valuable goal-line carries.
144. Isaiah Likely (TE17, BAL) – One of my flag plants this season, a fractured foot and subsequent surgery have put the kabosh on Isaiah Likely‘s early-season potential. He’s not expected to miss a ton of time, but he’ll have to work back to game speed before producing on the field. If you have the room, he’s worth a draft-and-stash, but don’t let him float on waivers too long. Likely hasn’t lost his ceiling.
145. Tahj Brooks (RB46, CIN) – Shoutout to our very own Chris Helle for putting me on to Tahj Brooks. The Bengals’ release of Zack Moss elevates Brooks to actual handcuff status, and if he gets enough work in the pass game, he has potential standalone FLEX value.
UPDATE: As bad as the Bengals’ defense is going to be, there will be plenty of opportunities for both backs to eat. Tahj Brooks showed his playmaking ability in the preseason, and I expect his role to grow as the season progresses.
146. Cameron Ward (QB24, TEN) – The first overall pick in this year’s draft is not someone I’m interested in for fantasy purposes. I’m not drafting Cam Ward in 1QB leagues, and he’s a backup at best in Superflex.
147. Jerome Ford (RB47, CLE) – Currently slotted in as the Browns’ starting running back with the uncertainty surrounding Quinshon Judkins. He failed to do anything when he had this backfield to himself in 2023 after Nick Chubb’s injury. He’s a warm body with little to no upside.
148. Jack Bech (WR60, LV) – The Raiders’ weak WR corps consists of Jakobi Meyers, and that’s about it. Rookie receiver Jack Bech has impressed in training camp and has a chance to see substantial volume from day one. Brock Bowers can’t catch all the passes. Right?
UPDATE: An impressive training camp turned into a disappointing preseason, squandering his chances of a significant early-season role.
149. Wan’Dale Robinson (WR61, NYG) – Wan’Dale Robinson quietly had 140 targets last season and was the only Giant not named Nabers to see more than 70 targets. He was one of just 11 receivers with 90+ catches and over 100 targets, but the only one to finish outside of the top 16 at the position. Robinson’s WR36 finish certainly wasn’t helped by the abysmally poor offense he was on, as well as the 78.9% catchable target rate he received, which ranked 24th among qualifying WRs. I don’t envision Robinson seeing another 140 targets, but another season of playing second fiddle to Nabers should make 100+ easily attainable. That alone makes him a viable option for your FLEX spot or a bye week fill-in, but mostly if you’re playing in a PPR format.
150. Jaydon Blue (RB48, DAL) – Reports of the team’s unhappiness with Jaydon Blue‘s work ethic appear to be entirely fabricated. He’s impressive in training camp and a name to keep an eye on in case he can take over a wide-open Cowboys backfield.