Tier 1
1. Bijan Robinson (RB1, ATL) – There’s a two-person race for the top-ranked overall player in Fantasy Football this season: either Joe Burrow’s bae Ja’Maar Chase, or Bijan Robinson (pronounced bih-ZHAN, not BEE-zhan). Honestly, we’re just splitting hairs here. Both are absolute studs. But because bellcow backs are so hard to come by in fantasy football, I give the edge to my bae, Bijan Robinson. He was one of just six running backs to handle over 300 carries and more than 45 targets (a whopping 72!) in 2024. And, Robinson was one of just three backs to average over 20 points per game and was THE RB1 from Week 6 on. I expect him not just to be RB1, but the #1 position player in fantasy football for 2025.
2. Ja’Marr Chase (WR1, CIN) – The Bengals defense is still a dumpster fire. Joe Burrow is still his quarterback. While I don’t expect a repeat of his 127 catch, 1,708 receiving yard, 17 touchdown season, Chase can easily repeat as the WR1 in 2025. His targets have increased every season of his career, and he’s yet to see fewer than his rookie total of 128, despite only playing in 13 games in 2022. There are no such things as certainties in life, but Chase is as close as you can get to one for fantasy football. If he doesn’t repeat as WR1 overall, he won’t be far behind.
3. Justin Jefferson (WR2, MIN) – The only receiver I’d remotely consider putting ahead of Chase is Justin Jefferson, who has finished as a top-five receiver in four of his first five seasons. The lone time outside the top five was 2023, where he played in 10 games due to injury, yet he still caught 68 passes and accrued over 1,000 yards. Considering we’ve yet to see Minnesota starting quarterback J.J. McCarthy take a regular-season snap in the NFL, some uncertainty shrouds Jefferson in 2025. But not much. JJettas is quarterback-proof and worthy of a top-five pick in all fantasy formats.
4. Ashton Jeanty (RB2, LV) – There’s always hesitation with rookie running backs for fantasy. You’ll hear, “He’s never played a down in the NFL, how can you rank him so high?”. Well, simply put, Ashton Jeanty is special. A historic 2024 season had him finish as the Heisman runner-up to Travis Hunter and just 28 yards short of breaking college football’s all-time single-season rushing record (currently still held by Barry Sanders). Jeanty ran for 2,601 and 50, yes, 50 touchdowns! And I have zero hesitation ranking a rookie this high. He’s got the talent, expected workload, and scheme that immediately puts him in contention for RB1 overall and top 10 in all of fantasy.
5. Malik Nabers (WR3, NYG) – You want QB proof? I’ll show you QB proof. Malik Nabers had 109 receptions on 170 targets, totaling 1,204 receiving yards and seven touchdowns, finishing as WR7 in total points and points per game. His Quarterbacks? Daniel Jones, Drew Lock, and Tommy Cutlets (aka Tommy DeVito). Even in the twilight of his career, Russell Wilson is a significant upgrade from who was throwing Nabers the ball last season. And behind Mr. Unlimited is either Jameis Winston, a boon to any receiver’s fantasy value, or rookie Jaxson Dart, who impressed in his first preseason start. Nabers is an elite talent and a name you’ll likely see among the top receivers in the league for years to come. In just one season, he proved he belongs mentioned in the same breath as Chase and Jefferson.
6. Jahmyr Gibbs (RB3, DET) – Remember the three running backs I mentioned back in Bijan’s blurb that averaged 20+ points last season? Jahmyr Gibbs was one of them (Saquon Barkley the third). I have nothing negative to say about Gibbs’ game. But there are a couple of concerns for the Lions’ offense heading into 2025. Can they remain an offensive juggernaut sans Ben Johnson? How much of a step back does the offensive line take after the retirement of Frank Ragnow and the loss of Kevin Zeitler in free agency? Gibbs likely finishes the season among the best running backs in fantasy, but it’s not out of the question for a drop outside the top 10, considering the wide range of outcomes for a Lions offense in transition.
7. CeeDee Lamb (WR4, DAL) – A 101 catch, 1,194-yard, six-touchdown season would be a career year for many receivers. But losing 24 catches, 555 yards, and six touchdowns was considered a “down” year for CeeDee Lamb. He still finished inside the top 10 for the third straight season and remains firmly among the elite at the position. But the potential for George Pickens to eat into Lamb’s touchdown total, as well as new head coach Brian Schottenheimer’s propensity for a run-first offense, gives me pause on ranking him any higher.
8. Saquon Barkley (RB4, PHI) – Saquon Barkley‘s historic 2024 was attained partially thanks to a massive 482-touch workload (the second-highest total ever for a running back). Phenomenal for his 2024 production and the Philadelphia Eagles, but exponentially increases his risk for fantasy purposes in 2025. History has not been kind to running backs who exceed 370 touches in a season. Most have suffered a major injury or a significant decline in performance the following year. Recent victims of the 370-touch curse include Derrick Henry, Jonathan Taylor, and Josh Jacobs. Barkley is genuinely a “generational talent” who can defy these historical trends and repeat as an RB1, but despite his immense talent, the overwhelming historical data against running backs with his level of usage make him too risky to draft among the top three.
Tier 2
9. Brian Thomas Jr. (WR5, JAC) – The rookie receiver most fantasy managers desired last season was Marvin Harrison Jr., but the real prize was Brian Thomas Jr. His ADP outside the Top 100 and a finish as WR11 was one of the best value picks all of last season. You won’t get that type of discount in 2025, but he’s well worth the late first/early second price tag he’s now sporting. BTJ didn’t slow down when Trevor Lawrence‘s injury forced him out. Thomas Jr. averaged 20 points per game from Weeks 10-17 with Mac Jones under center. With a healthy Trevor Lawrence and a tantalizing new offensive scheme from the mind of new head coach Liam Coen, BTJ is a dark horse to finish as the WR1 overall.
10. Bucky Irving (RB5, TB) – Another late-round rookie pick that carried many to fantasy championships, Bucky Irving is in a position to improve on his rookie season that saw him amass 1,122 rushing yards and eight touchdowns. It would be negligent not to mention potential production pitfalls for Irving. Pro Bowl left tackle Tristin Wirfs is set to miss the start of the season after undergoing arthroscopic surgery in July, and Jaguars Head Coach Liam Coen was the Bucs’ offensive coordinator for Irving’s immaculate rookie season. Still, Bucky has the talent to thrive even if the offense takes a step back. A heavy workload was already expected, but A groin injury suffered in Week 1 of the preseason is expected to sideline backup Rachaad White for an extended period. This could push even more work Bucky’s way.
11. A.J. Brown (WR6, PHI) – Getting sidelined due to injury for four games couldn’t slow down A.J. Brown as an Eagle. Brown has surpassed 1,000 receiving yards and scored at least seven touchdowns in each of his first three seasons in Philadelphia. Even with the Eagles’ low passing volume, Brown is as safe as they come for a WR1. He’s in line for 100+ targets once again, and there’s little to suggest he won’t hit 1000+ yards for a fourth straight season. Brown likely flirts with double-digit touchdown receptions as well.
12. De’Von Achane (RB6, MIA) – While the absence of Tua Tagovailoa negatively impacted the fantasy production of most of the Miami Dolphins, none were affected more than star running back De’Von Achane. His rushing wasn’t affected too heavily, although he averaged nearly nine fewer yards without Tua. Instead, it was the evaporation of his passing game work that caused Achane’s points per game average to drop 13.7 points in the six Tua-less games. Achane is in line to lead this backfield once again, and as long as Tagovailoa is on the field, Achane’s an RB1. If Tua plays in all 17 games, that could mean an RB1 overall season.
13. Drake London (WR7, ATL) – Released from the clutches of the heinous one known as “Arthur Smith”, Drake London finally broke out in his third season. London leaped into the top five at the position, accumulating 100 catches, 1,271 receiving yards, and nine touchdowns. London headlines the Falcons’ pass catchers once again, and should see somewhere around the 158 targets he had last season. In the three games started by Michael Penix Jr., London averaged a promising 9.8 targets per game. He’s not just in the WR1 conversation; he’s coming to take the WR1 overall crown for himself.
14. Nico Collins (WR8, HOU) – Nico Collins is an electric talent who’s capable of scoring any time he’s on the field. The problem is, he has to remain on the field. Collins has balled out over the past two seasons despite missing seven games, attaining back-to-back 1000-yard seasons and 15 combined touchdowns. He remains an elite fantasy option, but remains outside the top tier of pass catchers due to the risk of missed games. Collins has yet to play a full season in his first four years in the NFL.
15. Ladd McConkey (WR9, LAC) – If Brian Thomas Jr. was the best rookie wide receiver value last season, Ladd McConkey wasn’t far behind. Among receivers with at least 75 targets, McConkey had the sixth-highest yards per route run (2.57) and fourth-highest yards per target (10.5). I have zero concern for the return of 33-year-old Keenan Allen as a threat to McConkey’s value. He’s the clear-cut top option in this offense, and another top-15 season is a safe bet.
16. Kenneth Walker III (RB7, SEA) – I’m not one to make excuses for players, but external factors heavily influenced Kenneth Walker III‘s disappointing 2024. A horrendous offensive line (league-worst .8 yards before contact) and a pass-heavy offense that ranked 27th in rush rate certainly don’t help the cause. Walker practically walked on water when given the rock. He led the entire NFL in avoided tackle rate and ranked inside the top ten for yards after contact. He set career highs in every receiving category, adding a dimension to his game we’ve yet to see from him in the pros. Seattle invested a first-round pick in guard Grey Zabel to elevate the offensive line, and key starters Charles Cross and Abraham Lucas come into the season healthy. Pass-happy OC Ryan Grubb was replaced by Klint Kubiak, who historically runs a much more balanced, run-friendlier offensive system. I’m not concerned with missed time in training camp due to a minor foot injury. Walker is being drafted far too low, around RB16. He still holds top-five potential.
17. Derrick Henry (RB8, BAL) – While I’m willing to embrace the unknown in fantasy, I prefer to be out a year too early than a year too late on running backs. I’ve been about four years too early on Derrick Henry. He’s an enigma. All the historical evidence shows he should have slowed down a long time ago. But historical evidence gets obliterated by outliers such as King Henry. While running backs historically fall off a production cliff at age 30, Henry at 30 nearly became the first running back in history to rush for 2,000 yards twice. He’s been able to stiff-arm Father Time thus far, but the end will inevitably come for King Henry as well. He’s finished outside the top 10 running backs once over the last six seasons, in 2021 when he played in just eight games. He still finished as RB21.
18. Christian McCaffrey (RB9, SF) – How you value Christian McCaffrey for this season all depends on your risk tolerance and whether or not you think he’ll play the majority of the season. His talent has never been in question. If CMC is on the field, he’s locked in as an RB1 and in contention to be the RB1 overall. Considering the state of the San Francisco wide receiver room, McCaffrey could be leaned on even more in the pass game if he’s on the field. The only risk in drafting CMC is the extensive injury history. He’s among the group of players in an echelon of their own. If you’re willing to take the gamble, McCaffrey can win you a fantasy championship single-handedly. However, without a solid backup plan behind him, another injury-riddled season could send you to the Toilet Bowl if you draft him too high.
Tier 3
19. James Cook (RB10, BUF) – I understand the concern for James Cook from a fantasy perspective this season. He’s due for massive negative touchdown regression, rushing for 16 touchdowns in 2024 after totaling four over his first two seasons. He’s in a contract dispute at the time of writing, and he’s not used a ton in the passing game. But, he could still wind up a value if his ADP remains outside the top 12 running backs. Cook is established as the lead back for a Bills offense that has ranked inside the top six highest scoring offenses in each of the past five seasons–an offense that runs at one of the highest rates in the NFL. Despite sharing the backfield with Josh Allen, Cook ranked 12th with 48 uber valuable red zone attempts. There’s little to suggest Cook won’t finish as an RB1 in 2025, but he’s currently being drafted like it.
20. Amon-Ra St. Brown (WR10, DET) – After three consecutive seasons with over 100 catches, 1,000 yards, and top 10 WR fantasy finishes, it’s hard even to consider that Amon-Ra St. Brown could wind up a bust based on his ADP. As I touched on with Jahmyr Gibbs, the changeover in multiple aspects of the Detroit offense can’t be ignored for their offensive weapons. Add the emergence of Jameson Williams and his potential to take on an even larger role, and I’m not willing to risk drafting the Sun God in the first round. He likely remains a borderline WR1, but I wouldn’t be shocked to see a finish outside the top 12.
21. Puka Nacua (WR11, LAR) – Matthew Stafford‘s back issues flaring up before the preseason even started have me quite unsettled. If the Rams have to pivot to Jimmy Garoppolo for any extended period, the sky-high ceilings of Puka Nacua (and Davante Adams) get their wings clipped. Whether or not Stafford is available in Week 1, an aggravated disc causing enough pain to require an epidural is not a situation that sparks confidence, especially for a 37-year-old quarterback with a history of chronic back problems. With Sean McVay calling plays and the skillet offered by Puka Nacua, he’ll be productive regardless of who’s under center. Still, similar to Amon-Ra St. Brown, considering the red flags that have arisen, I’m not willing to spend a first-round pick on Nacua.
22. Chase Brown (RB11, CIN) – Volume is king in fantasy football, as the adage goes, and Chase Brown is a textbook example. He wasn’t particularly efficient last season, sporting 4.32 yards per carry. He certainly wasn’t explosive; his 4.4% explosive run rate tied for 23rd out of the 46 running backs with at least 100 carries. However, Cincinnati fed him 229 rushing attempts, and his 63 targets were the sixth most at the position. Brown also saw 52% of the Bengals’ carries inside the five. After the recent release of Zack Moss, his only competition for touches is sixth-round rookie Tahj Brooks. With how bad the Bengals’ defense is projected to be, both can be plenty productive if Brooks earns a few extra touches. Brown’s volume isn’t going anywhere.
23. Jonathan Taylor (RB12, IND) – Jonathan Taylor‘s RB1 finish last season is massively misleading. A considerable part of his stats came against three of the worst teams in the league, who were all very accommodating to opposing running backs. An unprecedented 36% of his rushing yards and 55% of his rushing touchdowns came over the final three games of the season versus the Titans, Giants, and Jaguars. Thanks to the Colts’ shaky quarterback situation, Taylor faced one of the highest rates of stacked boxes in the league (47.5%). With Daniel Jones now part of the QB room, the potential for improvement is mild at best. While Taylor’s talent is tantalizing, his surrounding situation is significantly worse than that of the other backs being drafted near him.
24. Garrett Wilson (WR12, NYJ) – Garrett Wilson has the talent to be a tier 1 receiver for fantasy. Unfortunately, his career has been held back by B-list QBs and the corpse of Aaron Rodgers under center. Nowadays, the vibes are high with the reunion of Wilson with his Ohio State teammate Justin Fields. There’s hope for sure, but I’m also plagued by doubt. Fields has been fine for fantasy due to his mobility, but his passing production has been less than ideal. Wilson will likely be a target hog, but can Fields play well enough to get him a top-12 finish?
Tier 4
25. George Kittle (TE1, SF) – Considering the considerable losses for the 49ers’ defense, the departure of Deebo Samuel, and the health of Brandon Aiyuk and Jauan Jennings, Kittle is positioned for an abundance of targets from Brock Purdy. He’s being drafted at his floor in the fourth round and offers that positional advantage without having to pass on elite fantasy options at other positions.
26. Lamar Jackson (QB1, BAL) – What is there to say that hasn’t already been said about Lamar Jackson? Back-to-back top-five fantasy seasons. He’s finished outside the top 10 twice in the past six years, and only played in 12 games in those seasons. Jackson will flirt with 4,000 passing yards and 1,000 rushing yards. What more could you ask for? The two-time MVP remains one of the rare quarterbacks worthy of drafting in the early rounds of 1QB leagues and a top-six pick in Superflex formats. He’s the gold standard.
27. Jayden Daniels (QB2, WAS) – I’d be lying if I said I wasn’t tempted to rank Jayden Daniels as the top quarterback in fantasy after his phenomenal rookie season. Daneils finished inside the top five after throwing 3,568 passing yards, 25 touchdowns, and just nine interceptions. Daniels has room to grow and teased his 1,000-yard rushing potential, accumulating 891 rushing yards and six rushing touchdowns. He should remain a resident of the top five club for the foreseeable future, and QB1 overall isn’t out of the question as early as this year.
28. Josh Allen (QB3, BUF) – The most dominant fantasy quarterback of the last five-ish years, Josh Allen, has scored a combined 40 touchdowns every season since 2020. Technically, I have him behind Lamar Jackson and Jayden Daniels, but they’re all virtually ranked the same: Elite Tier 1 options that will be some combination of the first three to four quarterbacks off the board. You can’t go wrong with Josh Allen leading your squad.
29. D.J. Moore (WR13, CHI) – D.J. Moore‘s 22.1% target share last season was the 10th highest among all receivers. Moore was a downfield threat as well, with three touchdowns of 20 yards or more, tied for the third-most in the NFL. The expectations for the Bears’ offense have grown significantly with new head coach Ben Johnson taking control of the offense. Chicago did draft stud tight end Colston Loveland in the first round and wide receiver Luther Burden III in the second, so there will be competition for targets. But fantasy managers get blinded by the idea of having a team’s WR1. They’ll pass up good receivers on great offenses when there’s an undefined hierarchy among pass catchers, opting for the top option on a worse offense. All of Chicago’s pass catchers should play a considerable role this season. But Moore will lead the way, and he’s not being drafted like it.
30. Josh Jacobs (RB13, GB) – Despite finishing inside the top 12 at the position four out of the last five seasons, Josh Jacobs is perennially underrated. Jacobs’ first season in Green Bay was one of the best of his career, rushing for 1,329 yards and 15 touchdowns. At age 27, there’s nothing to suggest Jacobs is due for a drop in production. While he lacks some of the upside of his peers, he offers one of the highest floors an RB1 can offer.
31. Tee Higgins (WR14, CIN) – Tee Higgins may be the Cal Naughton Jr to Ja’Marr Chase’s Ricky Bobby, but there’s nothing wrong with silver. In the never-ending quest to collect as many WR1s as possible, fantasy managers often overlook highly productive WR2s. Don’t make that mistake with Higgins. His WR17 finish may look paltry to the untrained eye, but he played in just 12 games last season. In those games, however, he averaged 18.6 points per game, good for the fifth-highest, ahead of guys like Malik Nabers and Nico Collins. The Bengals will once again field one of the worst defenses in the NFL, forcing Joe Burrow to throw the ball a ton. You don’t want to rely on Higgins as your top receiver, but he’s a high-end WR2 who will have plenty of WR1 weeks sprinkled in.
32. Kyren Williams (RB14, LAR) – The disconnect between the game of football and the game about the game of football can blur perceptions of a player’s production. Yes, Kyren Williams is coming off back-to-back 1,000 rushing-yard seasons, but his value relies on a large volume of touches and touchdowns. He was one of six backs with over 300 attempts last season, but his 4.11 yards per carry was the worst among the group (which averaged 4.96 ypc). Williams was the only member of the 300+ carry club with an explosive run rate under 2%. I believe Blake Corum and Jarquez Hunter will get more playing time this season to help keep Williams fresh. A drop in touches may not be disastrous for his floor, but it certainly is for his ceiling. If the Rams offense takes a step back with Stafford ailing, what if Williams doesn’t hit double-digit touchdowns? I like Williams as an RB2, but you’ll have to draft him as an RB1. It’s just not a price I’m willing to pay.
33. Davante Adams (WR15, LAR) – Davante Adams had his least productive season since before the pandemic and still finished as WR9 in points per game. The biggest question for his 2025 season is: what are the chances he sees 140 targets for a sixth straight season as the Rams’ second option? Adams turns 33 in December, and concerns with Stafford’s back broaden the range of outcomes for all of the Rams’ skill position players, and not in a good way. He’s a volatile WR2 with WR1 upside, but it wouldn’t be a shock to see Adams’ production fall off a cliff.
34. Jaxon Smith-Njigba (WR16, SEA) – The Seahawks signed Sam Darnold to replace Geno Smith (who was traded to the Raiders), and I’m wary of his so-called resurrected career. Darnold struggles under pressure, and he’s going from one of the best offensive lines in Minnesota to one of the worst in Seattle. Without much target competition outside of Cooper Kupp, JSN should still get served the biggest piece of the target pie. The problem is that the pie is shrinking. The Seahawks replaced pass-happy Ryan Grubb with run-loving Klint Kubiak at offensive coordinator, and he intends to bring back a more balanced attack. This creates just a little more cloudiness around JSN’s upside than I’d like.
35. Jaylen Waddle (WR17, MIA) – Despite the down year, Jaylen Waddle led all Dolphins receivers in yards per target (9.2), yards per reception (13.2), and had a higher yards after the catch per reception than Tyreek Hill (4.5 to 3.6). With Jonnu Smith traded to Pittsburgh, Tua Tagovailoa healthy, and a 31-year-old Tyreek Hill that maybe does/maybe doesn’t want to be traded, the ingredients are there for Waddle to get his groove back in 2025. I’m waddling back one more time, and you should too.
36. Marvin Harrison Jr. (WR18, ARI) – I still believe in the elite upside offered by Marvin Harrison Jr. and the potential to become a perennial top-five receiver. But with more games under double-digit fantasy points (nine) than over (eight), he’s lost the benefit of the doubt. As long as he remains with an ADP in the teens among receivers, Harrison’s acquisition cost is well worth it. You’d be getting MHJ at his floor, and few match his ceiling.
37. Trey McBride (TE2, ARI) – How did Trey McBride follow up his breakout 2023 campaign? By blowing past his TE7 finish to end up the TE2 behind Brock Bowers. His 111 receptions were the fourth-most of any player in the league and just one behind Bowers. Had it not been for some terrible touchdown luck, McBride could have easily finished as the top TE in 2024. Similar to the top quarterback options, McBride, Bowers, and George Kittle are virtually interchangeable from a fantasy points perspective. But with an ADP of 26 overall, I’ll probably forgo drafting McBride this season. I can’t pass up the likes of Ladd McConkey, Chase Brown, and Bucky Irving to draft a tight end.
38. Brock Bowers (TE3, LV) – Rarely do we see an uberly hyped tight end prospect meet, let alone exceed, the expectations placed on him. Brock Bowers did that rather bigly. The Raiders fed him early and often, with Bowers racking up 111 receptions, 1,194 receiving yards, and five touchdowns on 153 targets. There is some concern that Bowers will have a hard time matching his rookie production, considering all the offseason changes in Las Vegas. New (but old) head coach Pete Carroll has not traditionally targeted tight ends heavily in his offense, and with the addition of Ashton Jeanty, he could shift more towards the run game compared to last season. Bowers is truly an elite talent and should easily remain one of the top fantasy tight ends for the foreseeable future. But like McBride, I won’t be drafting him this season. An ADP around 18 overall is far too rich for my blood.
39. Tyreek Hill (WR19, MIA) – Tyreek Hill turned 31 this offseason, a number that’s seen just six receivers play in at least 10 games while still averaging over 12 points per game. Hill’s numbers dropped across the board last season, from yards per target, yards per route run, explosive play rate, to nearly every efficiency metric. You can absolutely credit some of that to not having Tua under center for much of the season, but banking on a return to the top 10 from an aging receiver whose greatest asset is his game-breaking speed is a recipe for disaster. I get it’s hard to let go of a perennial WR1 overall threat, but drafting Hill as anything more than a WR2 is buying all the risk.
Tier 5
40. Mike Evans (WR20, TB) – Mike Evans is a surefire first-ballot Hall of Famer, no question. Thanks to some Week 18 force-feeding from Baker Mayfield, Evans tied Jerry Rice’s record of 11 consecutive 1,000-yard seasons. Still, considering Evans will be 32 by Week 1 and Mayfield’s owed a hefty helping of negative regression in touchdowns, he’ll find it hard-pressed to put up another WR1 season. Evans is a solid WR2, considering he’s coming off the board in the fourth round, but I’d much rather gamble on the upside of the guys going around him like Marvin Harrison Jr and D.J. Moore.
41. TreVeyon Henderson (RB15, NE) – Omarion Hampton has been the most talked-about rookie running back this offseason, but TreVeyon Henderson is just as likely to finish as the top first-year back in fantasy. Henderson has the explosiveness to score at any time, as evidenced by his 100-yard kickoff return touchdown on his first NFL touch. He’s in line for a solid workload from day one, and if he goes full hostile takeover on the backfield, he has legit RB1 upside—the perfect RB2 target.
42. David Montgomery (RB16, DET) – Montgomery has scored 25 total rushing touchdowns over the past two seasons, averaging 15.4 points per game and finishing as RB16 & RB15 in his two seasons as a Lion. Although he shares the backfield with Jahmyr Gibbs, he’s still averaged over 200 carries and 30 targets per season with Detroit. And he’s missed three games each season! He gets 53% of the team’s carries inside the 5 and outcarried Gibbs inside the 10 last season, 33 to 26. Even if the Lions’ offense takes a step back in 2025, it’s not suddenly going to be one of the worst in the league. Monty’s a high-end RB2 being drafted closer to FLEX value, but offensive line concerns and the loss of Ben Johnson bloody up Knuckles’ ceiling just a bit.
43. Jordan Mason (RB17, MIN) – Jordan Mason was incredible after inheriting lead-back duties from an injured Christian McCaffrey. His 15% explosive run rate was the 2nd highest among qualifying backs, and his 5.2 yards per carry and 3.3 yards after contact ranked inside the top-5. Mason’s 25.5% avoided tackle rate was just outside the top 5, ranking sixth. I’m not concerned with the incumbent starter, Aaron Jones Sr. The 30-year-old back (31 in December) ranked in the bottom 10 in avoided tackle rate (18.4), yards after contact (2.5), and explosive run rate (9.8). Jones was also one of seven running backs with an explosive run rate under 10%. Vikings Head Coach Kevin O’Connell has already stated that Mason will be involved on the goal line. He’s an upside play who’s proven capable with little to no risk. I’m incredibly high on Mason compared to consensus, but I believe in the talent and opportunity. I expect we’ll see him on a hefty share of championship teams at the end of the fantasy season.
44. Omarion Hampton (RB18, LAC) – If you asked ChatGPT to build you a prototypical NFL running back, odds are the output would be Omarion Hampton. Big, powerful, fast, and a skillset that can keep him on the field for all three downs. Najee Harris‘ fourth of July freak accident could hinder his availability at the start of the season, opening the door for Omarion Hampton to run away with the job if he comes out of the gate blazing. His ADP is a tad higher than fellow rookie TreVeyon Henderson, but Hampton shares that same top 10 upside. Hampton’s a stud, but as the great JJ Zachariason has brought up, there’s traditionally been a cap on running backs’ pass-catching upside in a Greg Roman offense. Each scenario is different, and Hampton’s an uber-talented prospect. But it’s something to keep in mind.
45. Breece Hall (RB19, NYJ) – We’ve still yet to see the pre-injury explosiveness that made us fall in love with Breece Hall, and offseason chatter continues to get louder that the Jets backfield will become a Lions-esque committee with new head coach Aaron Glenn bringing Tanner Engstrand with him from Detroit. I’ve been a big fan of Hall since his rookie season, but I prefer to draft the other backs going around his ADP, such as Kenneth Walker III and Omarion Hampton.
46. Tetairoa McMillan (WR21, CAR) – I expect Tetairoa McMillian to be the focal point of the Panthers’ offense and a target hog, but we still don’t know who the actual Bryce Young is. If Young can maintain or exceed the strides he made after his benching last season, McMillian has the skillset and opportunity to have one of those top 10 rookie receiver seasons that legends are made of. The range of outcomes is broad, but the upside is very real.
47. Joe Burrow (QB4, CIN) – Joe Burrow (almost) has it all. He has arguably the best wide receiver duo in the league. He has an awful defense that hemorrhages points, leading to splashy passing stats. He’s got “rizz,” as the kids say. But his career high rushing total is 259 yards, which is what holds him back from that upper echelon of fantasy quarterbacks. Don’t hear what I’m not saying. Joe Brr is an absolute stud and locked in as a QB1 for fantasy. But, he’ll be hard-pressed to ever finish as the QB1 overall due to his lack of rushing upside.
48. Patrick Mahomes II (QB5, KC) – Sure, Patrick Mahomes‘ fantasy production has been down over the past two seasons. Did he throw for the fewest passing yards in his career in 2024? Yup. But the fewest passing yards for Mahomes’ career (3,928) was still good for the sixth-most in the NFL. He finished third in attempts (581) and completions (392), and had a top 10 completion percentage (67.5%). After getting mollywhopped in the Super Bowl, I’m not counting out a motivated Patrick Mahomes. His status as an elite fantasy option is getting put out to pasture way too early. I’ll gladly take the discount, especially considering many forget he’ll chip in 300-400 yards on the ground. Being able to wait a few rounds and still draft an elite quarterback like Mahomes will afford you a shot to draft the likes of James Cook or Kenneth Walker III instead of David Montgomery or Aaron Jones Sr. That’s the type of edge that wins fantasy championships.
49. Jalen Hurts (QB6, PHI) – Jalen Hurts has the rushing stats and tons of “tush push” tuddy’s, but has yet to eclipse 3,900 passing yards or 25 passing touchdowns. I’m not saying he’s incapable of surpassing those numbers, and Hurts’ four straight seasons of 10+ rushing touchdowns have afforded him a safe floor and extremely high ceiling. But, the lack of passing upside, particularly in the touchdown department, paired with the reliance on rushing touchdowns, gives me enough pause to place him in the tier just below the top three.
50. Zay Flowers (WR22, BAL) – After his first 1,000-yard season and second consecutive with over 70 catches and 100 targets, Zay Flowers isn’t getting the respect he deserves. I understand he’s on a run-first offense, but he also has Lamar Jackson as his quarterback. You know, the two-time MVP coming off a 4,172-yard, 41 passing touchdown season? I’m not concerned about DeAndre Hopkins eating into Flowers’ share at this point in his career. Flowers is being drafted at his floor, and won’t have to improve on much to jump into the teens.
51. Jameson Williams (WR23, DET) – Despite playing second fiddle to Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jameson Williams had a mini-breakout in 2024. Catching seven touchdowns and 58 passes on 91 targets and earning his first 1,000-yard season was good enough for a solid WR2 finish. At just 24 years old, Williams still has the potential to take a step forward and dance around that high-end WR2/low-end WR1 threshold. He’s the definition of a boom/bust wide receiver, but his spike weeks are the ones that win matchups.
52. DeVonta Smith (WR24, PHI) – The tempered Eagles’ passing attack has room for merely one elite fantasy wide receiver, and that title belongs to AJ Brown. DeVonta Smith is talented enough to put up WR1 seasons as he did in 2022, but with AJB around, Smith’s ceiling is capped. He’s a relatively consistent WR2 who periodically goes on hot and cold streaks.
Tier 6
53. Calvin Ridley (WR25, TEN) – One of my post-hype sleepers, Calvin Ridley, goes against the grain of my typical wide receiver targets. Yes, he’s over the age of 30, but he has a little less wear and tear on his body after missing nearly two full seasons for reasons other than injury. Ridley posted over 1,000 receiving yards and 64 catches with the human meme machine Will Levis under center. First overall pick Cameron Ward has a rocket arm, and the duo has the potential to form one of the most explosive QB/WR combos in the league. The best part is that there’s little to no risk baked into their draft positions. I prefer to avoid wide receivers 30 or older in fantasy due to their historical tendency to decline in production, but Calvin Ridley is an exception to the rule. It’s not just because he missed nearly two seasons in 2021-22 for non-injury-related reasons. It’s that he showed us last season that he’s still got it, even with sub-par quarterback play.
54. Isiah Pacheco (RB20, KC) – Pacheco went down with a fractured fibula in Week 2 and didn’t return until Week 13 last season. He understandably had some rust and never looked exceptionally like the fiercely aggressive runner we saw over his first two seasons. As the lead back for the Kansas City Chiefs, Pacheco should be considered a safe-ish RB2 for fantasy purposes. However, the backfield is more crowded than we’ve seen in recent seasons with the Chiefs bringing back Kareem Hunt, signing Elijah Mitchell, and drafting Brashard Smith out of SMU. Pacheco is the top dog to start the season, but if he struggles to return to form, it could turn into an ugly committee in Kansas City.
55. Chuba Hubbard (RB21, CAR) – Chuba Hubbard was left for dead after the Panthers drafted Jonathan Brooks in the 2024 draft. The former Oklahoma State Cowboy took full advantage of his early-season opportunity with Brooks recovering from a torn ACL. Hubbard scored double-digit fantasy points in eight of the first 10 games and over 18 in half of them. His workload was expected to drop with the return of Brooks in Week 12, but in a cruel twist, Brooks tore his ACL for a second time in as many years in Week 15. Hubbard comes into the season as the unquestioned starter for the Panthers, but don’t discount the addition of Rico Dowdle. Hubbard is a rock-solid RB2, but Dowdle’s involvement has the potential to eat away at his upside.
56. Terry McLaurin (WR26, WAS) – I was all in on Terry McLaurin last season, and it paid off in the form of his first top 10 fantasy finish. But besides touchdowns, McLaurin’s stats were on par with his career averages. What pushed him into the top 10 was catching double-digit touchdowns for the first time in his career. Unfortunately for Scary Terry, things get very scary for receivers the season after they catch 10 or more touchdowns. From 2020 to 2024, 18 different wide receivers accounted for 31 instances of a wide receiver catching 10 or more touchdowns. Only six of them were able to accomplish the feat in consecutive seasons. Based on historical evidence, there’s a less than 30% chance he repeats 10+ touchdowns. His ceiling remains a WR2, and considering his current holdout, drafting him among the top 20 receivers is a dicey proposition.
57. Courtland Sutton (WR27, DEN) – Courtland Sutton surpassed 1,000 receiving yards for the first time since 2019 and set career highs in targets & receptions. He wasn’t overly efficient, posting a solid but unspectacular 2.13 yards per route run. Evan Engram could eat into Sutton’s target share, and an expected improvement in the running game with the additions of rookie RJ Harvey and veteran JK Dobbins could allow Denver to lean more on the run. Sutton is a solid WR2 option, but nothing more.
58. DK Metcalf (WR28, PIT) – With a new team, a run-first offense, and a soon-to-be 42-year-old Aaron Rodgers, DK Metcalf is one of the most challenging players to rank this season. His range of outcomes is immense, but he’s talented enough to produce in nearly any situation. Metcalf should get peppered with targets from Rodgers, who’s known to lock on to and feed his favorite target. Metcalf very well may be his only target.
59. George Pickens (WR29, DAL) – The move to Dallas for George Pickens doesn’t move the needle much for me from a fantasy perspective. Yes, he’ll finally have a quality quarterback in Dak Prescott. But instead of being Batman, Pickens slides into the role of Robin beside CeeDee Lamb. If Dak can stay healthy, Dallas should have a potent offense that offers Pickens plenty of opportunity for big games. He’ll remain a boom/bust WR2.
60. Rashee Rice (WR30, KC) – Without the pending multi-game suspension looming over his head, Rashee Rice would be MUCH higher on this list. We don’t know how many games he’ll miss, and we don’t know when the suspension will begin. I’m ranking him here assuming a four- to six-game suspension. If it were more than that, I’d drop him outside the top 100 players. He could be a midseason trade target to hold and stash if the team that drafts him in your league struggles to start the season.
61. Chris Olave (WR31, NO) – Finishing as a WR2 in each of his first two seasons, many expected Chris Olave to make the jump to WR1 in 2024. Unfortunately, he didn’t get the chance after two concussions in a matter of weeks ended his season early. If Olave can get somewhat decent quarterback play, he’s going to make a lot of us look silly for ranking him so low. Here’s to a full season of good health.
62. Alvin Kamara (RB22, NO) – Although he’s past the dreaded 30-year-old threshold, Alvin Karma is set to age more gracefully than his fantasy counterparts. Despite never rushing for over 1,000 yards, Kamara has finished as an RB1 in seven of eight seasons, ranking a respectable RB16 in 2022. His ADP currently sits at RB15 and 37 overall, which is a little too high for my taste. Slipping even just a round or two would make his cost much more palatable.
63. Evan Engram (TE4, DEN) – I’m eager to see what Evan Engram can do in Denver as Sean Payton’s “Swiss Army Knife”. He’s a dark horse to finish as TE1 overall.
64. D’Andre Swift (RB23, CHI) – With all the changes the Chicago Bears made this offseason, it was a surprise they didn’t add any backfield competition for D’Andre Swift. His first year as a Bear was a bummer, sporting a career-low 3.8 yards per carry, the first in his career under four. Although Swift disappointed from a rushing perspective, he performed through the air. Among backs with a minimum of 35 targets, Swift ranked top 10 in yards per target (7.4), yards per reception (9.2), and yards after the catch per reception (9.6). He caught 42 passes on 52 targets for 386 yards. Those totals have a reasonable chance to go up with new Bears head coach Ben Johnson running the offense. Detroit running backs saw over 100 targets under Johnson in each of the last three seasons, including 70 for Swift as a Lion in 2022. With an ADP of RB24, the risk is already baked in. If the Bears’ offense takes the leap expected under Ben Johnson, a top 10 season is within reach.
65. Rome Odunze (WR32, CHI) – Rome Odunze led the Bears receivers in a plethora of categories during his rookie campaign: yards per target (7.3), yards per reception (13.6), deep targets (23), air yards share (30.8%), and average depth of target (13.8), the only Bears receiver that averaged over 10. Odunze’s involvement increased as the season progressed, a common trend among rookie receivers. He averaged 5.3 targets per game from Weeks 1-8, with the average jumping to 6.9 from Weeks 9-17. If Ben Johnson truly turns around the Bears’ offense, Odunze is primed for a tier jump or three in his second season in Chi-town.
66. James Conner (RB24, ARI) – James Conner tends to be underrated from a fantasy perspective, but I have a cluster of concerns for him heading into 2025. After topping the 200-carry threshold just twice in his first six seasons, Conner managed to do so in back-to-back years over 2023-2024, also attaining his first two 1,000-yard seasons. I try to avoid the label of “injury prone,” but Conner’s never played in a full season, missing two or more games in each of his eight years in the NFL. He also turned 30 in May. That’s not old in “real life” (says the 38-year-old), but it’s ancient in RB years. When you’re looking to cook up a productive running back, start with an age-30 back, throw in a dollop of career-high workload, and sprinkle in a lengthy injury history, you’ve got a recipe for disaster.
67. Chris Godwin (WR33, TB) – The obvious and most prominent looming issue for Chris Godwin is his return from a devastating ankle fracture suffered in Week 7 of last season that required not just one, but also a recently revealed second surgery. He also fractured his fibula and suffered a torn deltoid ligament. This is his second significant injury since 2021, when he tore his ACL and MCL in Week 15. If/when Godwin returns to the field, he’ll be battling more than just age and injury to get back up to form. Add in the emergence of Jalen McMillan last season and the first-round pick spent on Emeka Egbuka, and the Bucs’ wide receiver corps suddenly got real crowded. I’d rather take a chance on a player with higher upside and fewer red flags.
68. Matthew Golden (WR34, GB) – The rich got richer in Green Bay with the addition of Texas WR Matthew Golden in the first round of the draft (the first receiver drafted in the first round by the Packers since Javon Walker in 2002). His ability to stretch the field with elite speed and play both outside and in the slot is a perfect fit for what the Packers want to do on offense. I wouldn’t be shocked if Matthew Golden finishes the season ranked inside the top 25, but the crowded Packers receivers room is always a concern.
69. Travis Hunter (WR35, JAC) – The Jaguars made a splash by trading up to draft Heisman Trophy winner WR/CB Travis Hunter. Jacksonville has already made it known that they view him as a wide receiver first. Considering Hunter’s skillset and the offensive mind of new Jags head coach Liam Coen, the upside is mouthwatering. But we genuinely have no idea how much he’ll play on offense until we see how he’s deployed in the regular season.
Tier 7
70. RJ Harvey (RB25, DEN) – The hype surrounding Broncos rookie RJ Harvey was smothered with a wet blanket when Denver signed veteran JK Dobbins, but that may have been an overreaction. Harvey handled all the carries with the first team offense in the Broncos’ first preseason game, and actually ran more routes than Dobbins despite not playing a single third down snap. Harvey can handle a heavy workload, and if Sean Payton gives the bulk of the carries to the rookie, he’d immediately become a locked-in RB2.
71. Xavier Worthy (WR36, KC) – I love the upside of Xavier Worthy, but so much of his value hinges on how many games Rashee Rice winds up missing due to suspension. While Rice is out, Worthy likely becomes Mahomes’ top target. He’ll still be involved when Rice returns and maintains the same weekly ceiling, but with more mouths to feed, Worthy becomes a much more volatile WR2.
72. Kaleb Johnson (RB26, PIT) – Considering the opportunity and offensive scheme, Kaleb Johnson couldn’t have landed in a better spot for his fantasy value. Arthur Smith loves to run the ball, and he has two capable backs in Johnson and Jaylen Warren. Although Johnson is the superior talent, Warren has been productive over his first three seasons, and I expect him to be a thorn in Johnson’s side, much like he was to former teammate Najee Harris. If given the bulk of the carries, Johnson can put up solid numbers, but with Warren expected to share the load, the rookie running back is more of a borderline RB2.
73. Tank Bigsby (RB27, JAC) – I’ve been in on Tank Bigsby since last year, and he’s one of my favorite post-hype sleepers. Even before the steady drumbeat of positive training camp reports, Bigsby makes more sense. He outproduced Etienne in nearly every rushing category last season and was among the best in the league in both explosive run rate and yard after contact. Don’t shy away from him because he doesn’t have top three potential. As much as I like Bigsby, his upside is capped by his lack of involvement in the passing game. There is absolutely ZERO risk drafting Bigsby at his current ADP. Don’t mistake his lack of top 10 upside for lack of value. Drafting a potential top-24 back outside the top 40 is an incredible boost for your fantasy team.
74. Tony Pollard (RB28, TEN) – Tony Pollard was better than you remember last season. He was certainly better than I remembered. Pollard surpassed 1,000 rushing yards for the third straight season and chipped in 41 catches to finish as RB21. What has me excited for his 2025 prospects are the underlying metrics. Pollard’s 2.76 yards after contact was the sixth-best at the position, and his 5.0% explosive run rate was among the best backs in the league, ahead of De’Von Achane, James Cook, and Bijan Robinson. His main competition for touches is Tyjae Spears, who missed five games last season due to injury. The oft-injured back is already set to miss most of the preseason and potentially the first few weeks after suffering the dreaded high ankle sprain in the Titans’ first preseason game against the Packers. Pollard’s a safe bet as your RB2 and could make a push for borderline RB1 status if Spears cedes the majority of touches.
75. Jordan Love (QB7, GB) – Jordan Love already has a top-five fantasy finish under his belt. But can he do it again, and can he stay on the field? Despite a down season statistically, Love didn’t play all that badly last season. His completion percentage remained virtually the same from 2023, and he improved on multiple efficiency stats, including yards per attempt, average depth of target, and deep throw completion percentage, among them. His depressed counting stats can partially be attributed to an MCL injury in Week 1 that hobbled Love all season, and eventually led to a groin injury in Week 8 that hobbled him even further. I saw nothing that concerns me from an efficiency standpoint with Love that would lead me to put a pause on the excitement for a potential tier jump most had for him a year ago. The difference is that you’re not buying all the risk by drafting him inside the top 10 at the position, unlike last season. Love’s current ADP of QB17 is criminal with the potential explosiveness of the Packers’ offense.
76. Caleb Williams (QB8, CHI) – Despite facing pressure on 29.4% of his dropbacks, merely 2% of Caleb Williams‘ throws were considered turnover-worthy. While his passing numbers left much to be desired, he delivered on his rushing potential. Williams had the 7th most rushing yards among quarterbacks (489) and averaged 6.0 yards per carry. But my excitement for Williams’ potential jump has more to do with his new head coach, former Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson. It’s confirmed he’ll be calling plays in Chicago, which is thrilling to hear for the Bears’ fantasy potential. The Bears made significant moves to address the offensive line, as well as adding two dynamic weapons with their first two draft picks: tight end Colston Loveland and wide receiver Luther Burden III. All things considered, Williams is my dark horse pick to finish as the QB1 overall this season.
77. Khalil Shakir (WR37, BUF) – The Buffalo Bills decided to embrace a wide receiver by committee approach after the departure of their WR1 Stefon Diggs. No Buffalo receiver surpassed 100 targets, but Khalil Shakir led the way with 97. Shakir scored double-digit fantasy points in 11 of 15 games, but over 16 points just three times. He’s what I like to call a McDouble, a solid but unspectacular fantasy option with a high floor but low ceiling.
78. Stefon Diggs (WR38, NE) – Well on his way to a seventh straight 1,000-yard season, Diggs’ season ended abruptly in October with a devastating ACL tear. After an eight-game stint in Houston, Diggs finds himself on his third team in three seasons, joining New England via free agency. Although all reports have been positive in regards to his health, don’t underestimate the hills that Diggs still has to climb. An ACL tear can be a career-altering injury for any athlete. Considering Diggs is 31, a return to pre-injury form is improbable. His status for the start of the season is still up in the air, and all things considered, Diggs isn’t someone I’m targeting.
79. Brian Robinson Jr. (RB29, WAS) – Brian Robinson Jr. is also a McDouble (a solid but unspectacular fantasy option with a high floor but low ceiling). Robinson’s lack of involvement in the pass game and inefficiency (4.3 yards per carry) caps his upside. He doesn’t have a ton of backfield competition, but Jayden Daniels averaged nearly 9 carries a game and had only three fewer red-zone carries. Robinson remains a decent RB3 or FLEX, but not much else.
Tier 8
80. Brock Purdy (QB9, SF) – *Paul Heyman voice* BRRRROOOCKKKK LESNAR PURDY…sorry…Brock Purdy offers a safe floor thanks to the Kyle Shanahan system, but his ceiling is higher than most realize. He’s coming off back-to-back seasons of finishing as a QB1 on a points per game basis. Already averaging 450 pass attempts over that same period, he has a legitimate shot at surpassing 500 in 2025 with the offseason gutting of the 49ers’ defense. Even with Brandon Aiyuk set to miss a solid chunk of the early season and Deebo Samuel now a Commander, Purdy has plenty of weapons in George Kittle, Ricky Pearsall, Jauan Jennings, and, of course, Christian McCaffrey. With an ADP outside the top 100 players, he’s an excellent target in 1QB leagues. He makes for a safe superflex play right on the QB1/QB2 border.
81. Kyler Murray (QB10, ARI) – Playing in his first full season since 2020, Kyler Murray finished as a borderline QB1 on a points per game basis. I’d stop short of calling him a bust, but he certainly didn’t live up to offseason expectations, especially with the addition of rookie wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. Among quarterbacks who played in at least 10 games, Murray’s sixth-ranked 68.8% completion percentage is deceptive. When looking at his adjusted completion percentage*, the number does go up, but his rank drops all the way to 16th. He ranked 20th in yards per attempt among qualified quarterbacks, and a touchdown-to-interception ratio of 21:11 leaves much to be desired. Murray’s rushing prowess provides him with a safe floor, but his ceiling is closer to QB7/QB8 than it is to QB1/2.
*Completion Percentage adjusted for drops, spikes, throwaways, hit as thrown, and batted passes.
82. Bo Nix (QB11, DEN) – I’m not a Nix hater, I’m just not a Bo-liever. Last year’s breakout is driving up the price, and fantasy managers are buying all the risk. Nix didn’t have a 300-yard passing game until Week 11, and he only had one more after that. Nix had 10 passing touchdowns through Week 10, failing to throw a single touchdown in half of the first ten games. What kept him afloat during those lean passing games was his rushing. Nix finished inside the top ten in rushing yards for quarterbacks with 430, but not because he ran remarkably well. Nix had a yards per carry of 4.7, but that doesn’t matter when you have as many attempts as Nix did last season; He was one of five quarterbacks with at least 90. But what happens when that number goes down? The Broncos have second-round stud RJ Harvey and recent free agent signing JK Dobbins as their one-two punch. I expect the running back touches to return closer to the norm for a Sean Payton offense this season. I don’t see a world where Nix finishes inside the top five, so drafting him at QB8 is buying all the risk. Unless his passing numbers improve significantly, a drastic drop in rushing attempts could be devastating for Nix’s fantasy value in 2025.
83. Jerry Jeudy (WR39, CLE) – In the 12 games Jameis Winston started for Cleveland last season, Jerry Jeudy averaged 7.8 targets, 5.1 receptions, 79.6 receiving yards, and 15.7 yards per reception. Without Winston, Jeudy averaged 10.2 targets, 5.8 receptions, 54.8 receiving yards, and 9.4 yards per reception. Despite averaging nearly three more targets and an additional catch when Winston wasn’t on the field, Jeudy’s receiving yards dropped by about 25 yards, and his yards per reception dropped from 15.7 to 9.4. Winston’s love for the YOLO ball meshed well with Jeudy’s skillset. Unfortunately for Jeudy, Winston left for the Giants in free agency. The Browns’ quarterback room is easily one of the worst in the league, and it’ll likely be a QB carousel not conducive to fantasy production. An ADP of WR33 isn’t awful, but I’d rather take a shot on the upside on the guys going around him, like Chris Olave or Rome Odunze.
84. Joe Mixon (RB30, HOU) – This ranking of Joe Mixon takes into consideration the nagging foot injury that has had him on the non-football injury list since the start of training camp. We’ve yet to find out what the exact injury is and what sort of timetable is expected for his return. I’m assuming he misses a game or two to start the season, but if it turns out to be more, I’d drop Mixon outside the top 100. I’m likely avoiding him regardless of the injury updates. Take a chance if he falls to the seventh round or so, but I’m avoiding drafting him at his current ADP in the late 50s.
85. Brandon Aiyuk (WR40, SF) – Similar to the Joe Mixon situation, it’s unclear when we can expect to see Brandon Aiyuk back on the field. But unlike Mixon, we know Aiyuk will miss a significant portion of the beginning of the season. Week 6 has been repeately floated as Aiyuk’s expected return date, head coach Kyle Shanahan recently reiterated “…which means that could be Week 10, it means it could be Week 5, but that’s the area where I start thinking about it…” when speaking about a trio of 49ers working their way back from ACL injuries.
It’s a tricky situation when considering drafting Aiyuk. An ADP of 113 for a player of his caliber is alluring, but there’s a hidden cost you may not be considering. He’s guaranteed to miss nearly half of the fantasy football regular season, even if he returns Week 5. That’s half the season you’re down a bench spot, putting yourself at a disadvantage not only for depth, but stashing that potential breakout player we’re all chasing. Even when Aiyuk does return, he won’t be at full speed as soon as he steps on the field. The most obvious issue is that there’s a very real chance he misses even more time. A healthy Aiyuk on a potentially pass-heavy 49ers team is the stuff dreams are made of, but I’d much rather wait to attempt to trade for him closer to his return than deal with the baggage that comes with rostering him.
86. T.J. Hockenson (TE5, MIN) – Nearly two years after tearing his ACL and MCL in Week 16 of the 2023 season, T.J. Hockenson is right around the ADP I’m generally starting to consider drafting a tight end. Not considering last year’s mid-season return and working his way back to form, Hockenson was a top-five fantasy tight end in three of the previous four seasons. Jordan Addison is set to miss the first three games of the season, giving Hockenson an early-season advantage in potential targets and chemistry building with new quarterback J.J. McCarthy. Hockenson is a phenomenal option at tight end due to his reasonable cost and relatively high floor and ceiling. He’ll remind people how talented he is.
87. Cooper Kupp (WR41, SEA) – It’s hard to pass up on a fantasy football legend the likes of Cooper Kupp when you see him still hanging around in the eighth or ninth round. But let someone else draft the former Triple Crown winner. Kupp recently turned 32, no longer has offensive mastermind Sean McVay calling plays, and hasn’t played a full season since 2021. Oh, and his quarterback is no longer his breakfast buddy, Matthew Stafford. If you want to roster Kupp as a WR3, be my guest. But you’ll be passing on the upside of guys going around him, the likes of Matthew Golden and Rome Odunze.
88. Justin Fields (QB12, NYJ) – Finally free from Chicago and Pittsburgh, Justin Fields heads to …the Jets. Yes, I know, I know, it’s the Jets, but hear me out. I love the hiring of Aaron Glenn, and with him comes Tanner Engstrand, the first-time offensive coordinator who served under Ben Johnson as the Lions’ passing game coordinator for the past two seasons. Fields does have a better arm than he’s shown in the pros. He threw for 5,701 yards and 62 touchdowns in his college career. Notably, his completion percentage and QB rating have improved in every one of his first four seasons in the NFL. If Fields can become just decent enough of a passer, a top-five fantasy finish is within reach. In 1QB, I’d pair him with a Justin Herbert-type high-floor QB to offset the risk of Fields. In Superflex, Fields is my prototypical QB2 target—an ADP value with upside.
89. Trevor Lawrence (QB13, JAC) – Trevor Lawrence enters 2025 with a new head coach for the fourth time in five seasons. Thankfully, Liam Coen hails from the much-beloved, uber-productive Sean McVay coaching tree. In just one season as Tampa Bay’s offensive coordinator, Coen rejuvenated both the Bucs offense and Baker Mayfield‘s career. There was a lot to like about how Lawrence played pre-shoulder injury last year. He had the third-highest accuracy rate (83.25) and the second-highest average depth of target (9.8) among quarterbacks with at least 10 starts. Lawrence is coming off back-to-back seasons of over 4,000 passing yards, and averaged 321 rushing yards and about four rushing touchdowns in his first three seasons, adding nearly four extra points per game. Jacksonville addressed the offensive line this offseason and made a splash by trading up to draft Heisman Trophy winner WR/CB Travis Hunter. Paired with Pro Bowl sophomore wideout Brian Thomas Jr., the duo already appears to headline the best arsenal of weapons TLaw has had in his professional career. Is a QB1 overall season in his future? Likely not. But a top-10 fantasy finish is undoubtedly attainable. Maybe as early as this year.
90. Trey Benson (RB31, ARI) – Second-year back Trey Benson has an ADP around RB46 and has—stop me if you’ve heard this before— league-winning potential if he manages to get the bulk of backfield carries in Arizona. Benson matched Conner’s 4.6 yards per carry over the full season and got better as the year progressed. From Weeks 10-17, Benson bested Conner’s yards per carry, 5.7 to 4.8. Over that same period, Benson had a higher avoided tackle rate, explosive (20+ yard) run rate, and yards after contact. Granted, that was in about 1/4 of the touches, but it proves the point I’m trying to make: Benson is more than capable of producing at the highest level. I believe there’s a good chance Connor sees a drop in production and/or misses multiple games due to injury. Either could lead to a backfield takeover by Benson.
91. Sam LaPorta (TE6, DET) – I kinda think Sam LaPorta is being slept on. LaPorta was solid last season. His yards per route run were very comparable year-over-year (1.95 to 1.8), his yards per target and yards per reception went up, and he had two additional red zone targets. The problem was that his acquisition cost was way too high. He was TE2 off the board and the 33rd player overall, around or before guys like Malik Nabers, James Conner, Mike Evans, and James Cook. The emergence of Jameson Williams also led to 2 fewer targets per game and a total of 37 fewer on the season (he played in one less game, too). Sometimes, it’s just not enough volume. I don’t have an issue with LaPorta being the fourth tight end drafted. I do have an issue with where you have to draft him. A current overall ADP of 50 would require you to take him over the likes of TreVeyon Henderson, RJ Harvey, Tetairoa McMillian, and even teammate Jameson Williams. Not a chance I’d take him over a single one of the guys in that range.
92. Michael Pittman Jr. (WR42, IND) – It was revealed that Michael Pittman Jr. played with a fractured back nearly all of 2024. He didn’t look like the same guy who averaged over 98 catches, 1,053 yards, and ~5 touchdowns, finishing as WR13, WR20, and WR17 over the previous three seasons. I get why people are down on him after last year’s WR41 finish. But he wasn’t as bad as you think. Pittman led the Colts in targets for the third straight year (albeit in two more games than Josh Downs) and was the first read on 73% of his targets. He was the first read most often, sitting at 14.3%, which is good news considering that both Anthony Richardson Sr. and Daniel Jones targeted their first read over 50% of dropbacks last season. Both the Giants and Colts ranked inside the top 10 for first-read pass percentage, with Indy’s 53.5% being the third-highest rate in the league. Pittman is being drafted outside the top 100 players. That’s WR49, after last season’s faceplant finish of WR41. The hate has gone way too far. He’s quite literally being drafted under his floor.
93. Mark Andrews (TE7, BAL) – Mark Andrews struggled most of last season, but finished strong. Over the second half of 2024, Andrews had 25 catches on 33 targets for 316 yards and SIX touchdowns. His tuddy total was the second most in the league over that span, and his 9.6 yards per target and 12.6 yards per reception were both top 10 at the position. I’m still a big fan of Isaiah Likely, but he recently had surgery to repair a broken bone in his foot. He’s not sure to be ready by the start of the season, although it’s not considered a long-term issue. All things considered, I’m beginning to like Mark Andrews more and more at his ADP.
94. J.K. Dobbins (RB32, DEN) – J.K. Dobbins took the fantasy world by storm with his electric start to his Chargers career, rushing for a combined 166 yards and two touchdowns through the first two weeks of the 2024 season. Unfortunately for Dobbins, those would be the only games he’d rush for over 100 yards the entire season. It was a mirage you could see right through if you looked closely enough. Over his first four games, he had an undoubtedly unsustainable 6.1 yards per carry and 16.1% explosive run rate. He finished the season with respectable ratios: 4.64 yards per carry and a 5.1% explosive run rate, but nowhere near the elite numbers of his first two games. Dobbins signed late in free agency with the Broncos, after the draft and after drafting RJ Harvey in the second round. Sean Payton has a record of preferring to use multiple backs, and Dobbins will get a little run. But this backfield belongs to Harvey, and Dobbins is little more than a handcuff with some FLEX value. Pass.
95. Baker Mayfield (QB14, TB) – Last season’s 41 touchdown barrage by Baker Mayfield produced a career-high 7.3% touchdown rate (the number of touchdowns thrown per passing attempt) after averaging 4.5% over the previous four seasons. Just four quarterbacks have had a touchdown rate over 7% in the past five seasons (per teamrankings.com). Touchdown rate wasn’t the only stat Baker produced an outlier in last year. He also had the best competition percentage of his career in 2024 at 71.4%, nearly ten percent higher than the rate of his previous four years (61.9%). There are concerns surrounding Mayfield’s supporting cast, as well. Mike Evans is a surefire Hall of Famer, but he’ll be 32 this August. Chris Godwin‘s return to the field is up in the air after a grueling Week 7 dislocated ankle. Even when he returns, he’ll be eased into action, and a return to form is far from a guarantee. Tristan Wirfs, arguably the best LT in the league, is uncertain to be ready for the start of the season. And with Liam Coen leaving for Jacksonville, the Bucs promoted passing game coordinator Josh Grizzard to offensive coordinator. Tampa is banking on a plug-and-play OC swap, but significant question marks remain. Mayfield should end up a borderline QB1, but his ADP inside the top 10 quarterbacks is a classic overpay after a career season.
96. C.J. Stroud (QB15, HOU) – C.J. Stroud‘s sophomore step back isn’t all that surprising when you dig into the details. Stroud faced pressure on 34.8% of his drop-backs (the highest rate in the NFL) and was sacked 52 times (the second most). When given time, Stroud was just fine, with a completion percentage of 70.1% and yards per attempt of 7.3. When pressured, his completion percentage dipped to 47.6% and yards per attempt dropped a whole yard to 6.3. Thankfully, Houston revamped its line this offseason, signing a handful of veterans in OG Laken Tomlinson, OT Cam Robinson, and OT Trent Brown, trading for OG Ed Ingram, and drafting OT Aireontae Ersery in the 2nd round. The offensive line should be improved, but to what degree will determine Stroud’s true bounce-back potential. Another positive development is Houston’s acquisitions of both talent and depth at wide receiver: signing Christian Kirk and drafting Iowa State teammates Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel at 34th and 79th overall. Stroud’s being drafted way below his floor around the QB 18-20 mark. The difference is that a QB1 overall season is still in the realm of possibility for Stroud.
97. Travis Etienne Jr. (RB33, JAC) – After a top-five finish in 2023, Travis Etienne Jr. had a full-on fantasy faceplant last season. He fell to RB35 in 2024, and if it hadn’t been for his usage in the passing game, it could have been a whole lot worse. Among the 31 running backs with at least 150 carries last season, Etienne ranked 30th in yards per carry, 21st in explosive run rate, 20th in yards after contact per attempt, and 30th in percentage of team carries inside the five. I know people are excited to see what ETN can do with Liam Coen, but it feels eerily similar to the Rachaad White/Bucky Irving situation from just a season ago: an incumbent starter with pass-catching chops who is an inefficient runner is replaced by an efficient, explosive “backup” who is a capable pass catcher but has not been asked to do it at the pro level. I recognize I am extremely low on Etienne compared to the masses. But I trust my process, and I’m willing to eat crow if I wind up on the wrong side of this take.
98. Zach Charbonnet (RB34, SEA) – Zach Charbonnet holds tremendous upside if something were to happen to Kenneth Walker. What makes him one of the most valuable handcuffs in all the land is his viability as a FLEX starter even if he remains KWIII’s understudy all season. Charbs averaged 11 points per game last season, good for 29th among RBs with at least 100 carries. In the six games Walker missed last season, Charbonnet averaged 19.2 ppg, including games with point totals of 25.7 and 38.3. He’s a tremendous value coming off the board around the 116th pick.
Tier 9
99. Tucker Kraft (TE8, GB) – Tucker Kraft could be the most disrespected tight end in fantasy. Kraft quietly caught seven touchdowns last season, and it wouldn’t be a shock for him to repeat (or improve) on that number. He’s a low-risk, moderately high-reward selection with an ADP outside the top 100 players.
100. Kyle Pitts Sr. (TE9, ATL) – A few fun facts about Kyle Pitts Sr.:
-He’s never had a yards per reception under 12.
-He’s finished outside of the Top 15 tight ends just once, in his sophomore season, when he played just 10 games.
-Last season, he ranked 13th at the position in receiving yardage (602) and touchdowns (4).
-He was tied for the 5th most targets over 20+ yards among tight ends.
There have also been trade rumors swirling around Pitts this offseason, but on the bright side, a trade to the right situation could increase his value. All in all, there is a wide range of outcomes for Kyle Pitts this season, but in that range is a top-five finish. With the state of the tight end position, he won’t have to do much to finish as a TE1. Being drafted among backup running backs and 3rd string wide receivers, Pitts is easily worth the dart throw at his next-to-nothing cost.
101. Cam Skattebo (RB35, NYG) – I have Cam Skattebo and Tyrone Tracy Jr. ranked butt-to-butt because of Skatt’s bum hammy. The training camp injury has kept the rookie off the field for a few weeks, but the hope is he’ll be able to get some run before the preseason is over. You’ll see why I’m not a fan of Tracy in his blurb below, but Skattebo’s injury sets back what I feel like is an inevitable backfield takeover. Missing invaluable training camp touches and a chance to show his skills in preseason games gives Tracy a longer leash to start the season. I’m still drafting Skattebo everywhere I can; I’d much rather stash him to start the season than drop the waiver wire bag on him when he becomes the G-Men’s RB1.
102. Tyrone Tracy Jr. (RB36, NYG) – It’s relatively simple: Tyrone Tracy Jr. was a waiver wire darling that paid dividends thanks to a cost of $Free.99. But Tracy was simply not very good. Tracy was tied for 20th in yards per carry (4.4), 24th in yards before contact (1.5), 18th in yards after contact (2.8), 25th in avoided tackle rate (20.3%), and 35th in explosive run rate (9.4%). And that’s without mentioning the five fumbles Tracy committed in 2024, tied for third-most among RBs. As we know, ball security is job security, and the leash for Day 3 running backs is not long. The Giants drafted running back Cam Skattebo in the fourth round, and I expect him to overtake this backfield before the season’s end. If not for a training camp hamstring injury, it may have been before the season’s start. Tracy’s lackluster efficiency, explosiveness, and the addition of Skattebo make him a complete fade for me in 2025.
103. Jauan Jennings (WR43, SF) – With Deebo Samuel Sr. now a member of the Washington Commanders and Brandon Aiyuk set to miss a minimum of about five games, Jauan Jennings finds himself in a position to serve as San Francisco’s WR1 to start the season. …wait, what’s that I’m hearing? Ah. I must have used a monkey’s paw, because Jennings is both battling injury and locked in a contract dispute with the Niners. Jennings hit GM John Lynch with the “pay me or trade me” ultimatum, and to this point, Lynch has called his bluff. If things get resolved and Jennings ends up on the field sooner rather than later, he has the potential to win weeks with monstrous blow-up performances.
104. Tyler Warren (TE10, IND) – Despite the stench of the putrid quarterback play he’ll likely deal with in his rookie season, Tyler Warren is a favorite tight end target for me this season. Warren should slot right into an every-down role on a team that has a plethora of above-average pass catchers, but lacks an alpha. With an ADP around 100 overall, there’s not much risk but plenty of reward in taking Warren as your starting tight end for fantasy.
105. Jayden Reed (WR44, GB) – Green Bay boasts one of the strongest receiver rooms in the entire NFL. Great for Jordan Love‘s upside, not so much for the consistency of the Packers’ pass catchers. But how in the world is Jayden Reed going outside the top 100 players? He finished as WR29 in total points despite Love missing two games and being hampered by injury from Week 4 on. Yes, his targets decreased by nearly 20 from his rookie season, but he still scored six touchdowns and increased his receiving yardage thanks to improved efficiency. Reed ranked fourth in yards per reception (15.58), yards after the catch per reception (7.33), and 12th in yards per route run among qualifying receivers. Additionally, he tied BTJ and Alec Pierce for the fourth most receptions of 20+ yards (12). Reed is just entering his third season and is continuing to develop. Even with the competition for targets, Reed is a big-play threat on one of the most explosive offenses in the league. With a healthy Love, Reed still has plenty of upside.
106. Brenton Strange (TE11, JAC) – Brenton Strange put up solid numbers when given the opportunity last season. In the games he played at least 60% of snaps, Strange averaged five targets, 3.4 receptions, 7.8 yards per reception, and caught two touchdowns. In the games without Engram, Strange leveled up, adding five fantasy points per game. Engram is gone. Christian Kirk is gone. You’re getting a guy with a clear path to the top 12 for the price of a late-round bench warmer. He doesn’t have to be a world-beater to smash that value.
107. Joshua Palmer (WR45, BUF) – With Mack Hollins and Amari Cooper gone, two of the three deep threats from last season are no longer on the Buffalo Bills. They brought in both Palmer and Elijah Moore to help fill the void, but I prefer Palmer. Despite finishing fourth in targets on the Chargers last season, Palmer accounted for 25.6% of Los Angeles’ air yards and ranked second on the team in deep targets with 18. Among the teams’ receivers with at least 10 catches, Palmer had the highest yards per reception with 14.97. His ADP outside the top 200 players is borderline fantasy malpractice. If things between him and Allen click, Palmer can easily become a viable every-week fantasy starter.
108. Dak Prescott (QB16, DAL) – Rayne Dakota Prescott is another guy who I’m drastically lower on than most. I’m not into hot takes or interested in false claims for clicks. But at age 32, coming off yet another season with significant time missed due to injury and projected to have one of the league’s worst offensive lines, I’m out on him. O-line stalwart Zack Martin retired this offseason from an offensive line that already had its issues with him on it. Dak could make me look like a complete fool, especially with newly acquired George Pickens starting opposite of Pro Bowler CeeDee Lamb. But I’ll take my chances betting against an old, oft-injured quarterback with a turnstile-filled offensive line.
109. Tua Tagovailoa (QB17, MIA) – No quarterback has a broader range of outcomes than Tuanigamanuolepola Tagovailoa. After suffering three terrifying concussions over two years, retirement was a legitimate option for Tua during and after last season. Even with the extremely valid health concerns, I believe his talent, Mike McDaniel on the joysticks, and the weapons at his disposal mean Tua can put up crooked numbers with the best of them. He’s being underdrafted, and understandably so. But the upside is worth the risk of drafting Tua with an ADP of QB21.
110. J.J. McCarthy (QB18, MIN) – The J.J. McCarthy hype was so palpable after Week 1 of the 2024 preseason, you could practically taste it. Then it was revealed he suffered a torn meniscus in his right knee and would miss his entire rookie season. It was quite the gut punch, but he’s back and in practically the same situation for 2025. I don’t get why the same energy isn’t surrounding him this draft season. Sam Darnold stepping in and having a career year should thrill McCarthy believers. They have one of the best offensive lines in football. Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison (after his three-game suspension) will line up at wide receiver. TJ Hockenson is healthy. Aaron Jones Sr. is a year older, but they added Jordan Mason in the backfield. I. Just. Don’t. Get. It. McCarthy is an ideal target in 1QB leagues, boasting a perfect pairing of low acquisition cost and untapped upside.
111. Josh Downs (WR46, IND) – I like Josh Downs, but he’s one of the most overvalued players in all of fantasy football. He’s a solid PPR option and someone I wouldn’t mind as a FLEX or bye-week fill-in. Downs averaged 9.2 points per game in 2023 and 13.1 in 2024. On the flip side, he has one of the worst QB situations in the league and will have to compete for targets with Tyler Warren, Michael Pittman Jr., Alec Pierce, and AD Mitchell. He’s another McDouble: solid floor, limited ceiling. If you have a risky WR1 and/or WR2, Downs would make sense as your WR3 from a roster construction standpoint. Based solely on draft cost, I’d rather shoot for upside with someone else.
112. Jordan Addison (WR47, MIN) – With the announcement of his three-game suspension to start the season, I’d expect to see Jordan Addison‘s ADP drop just a little from its current placement of 78th overall. But don’t let it fall too much, because far too often fantasy managers forget we play a weekly game. As of Week 4, Addison slides right back into a stable WR2 with a sprinkle of week-winning spike weeks.
113. David Njoku (TE12, CLE) – Can you believe this will be David Njoku‘s ninth season in the league? After just one in his first five seasons, Njoku has had three straight seasons with a TE1 finish. His upside is capped with the monstristy that is the Cleveland quarterback room, but he’s a set it and forget it starter for fantasy.
114. Travis Kelce (TE13, KC) – One of the most dominant tight ends in fantasy football history was still productive in 2024, but he wasn’t really the same Travis Kelce. He had under 1,000 receiving yards for the second straight season after surpassing the total in the seven seasons prior. He’ll remain one of Mahomes’ most trusted targets, but there are a lot of mouths to feed in Kansas City. He’ll stay firmly in the TE1 conversation and flirt with top 5 status. But at age 35, his days of complete dominance are a thing of the past. Remembering him comes in flashbacks and echoes. Tell myself it’s time now, gotta let go.
115. Colston Loveland (TE14, CHI) – Colston Loveland wasn’t supposed to be the first tight end drafted, but the Bears shocked us all in taking him 10th overall before presumed top option Tyler Warren. He has the talent to become a perennial top-five tight end in fantasy football, but I have a few concerns with him getting there in his first year. Chicago has a collection of promising pass catchers, and while I’m extremely high on Caleb Williams this season, he can’t feed them all a ton of targets.
116. Justin Herbert (QB19, LAC) – This ranking isn’t a knock on Justin Herbert‘s talent. I love what Jim Harbaugh is doing for the Chargers from an NFL or “real” football standpoint, just not from a fantasy football perspective. Herbert’s 7.7 yards per attempt were the highest of his career, and he finished with a QBR over 100 for the first time. However, he averaged fewer than 30 passing attempts for the first time in his career, had just two games with over 300 passing yards, and had more games with 1 or 0 passing touchdowns (9) than with two or more (8). Throwing just three more touchdowns in 2024 despite playing in four more games than 2023 is not great. Herbie is a safe-ish pick at QB15, but his ceiling’s capped in the Harbaugh-led offense. I’d rather C.J. Stroud or Jordan Love for the upside.
117. Drake Maye (QB20, NE) – Most of Drake Maye‘s production has come on the ground, raising both his floor and ceiling. But before the former Tar Heel can leap into the next level, Maye must first drastically improve his passing production. Though he has 12 career starts, Maye has thrown multiple touchdowns in just four of his first 12 starts, and he’s yet to have a 300-yard game.
118. Deebo Samuel Sr. (WR48, WAS) – If he can stay healthy, Deebo Samuel Sr. may wind up one of the best values of 2025. Kliff Kingsbury flopped as a head coach, but he’s salvaged his reputation as an offensive mind with the work he’s done as the Commanders’ offensive coordinator. His claim to fame has been his ability to adapt his version of the air raid offense to fit the strengths of his personnel. That’s what excites me most when considering a bounce-back season for Deebo. His multifaceted skillset is a perfect fit for a creative mind like Kingsbury. Depending on how Terry McLaurin‘s contract situation finalizes, Samuel could find himself as the team’s WR1. It’s unlikely, but whether he’s the top option or not, Deebo’s worth the gamble at his WR38 ADP.
Tier 10
119. Emeka Egbuka (WR49, TB) – Initial reactions to Emeka Egbuka landing in Tampa were a half-hearted, “just wait until next year”. You may not have to. Although the Bucs’ wide receiver depth chart looks crowded on paper, Egbuka is in line to produce from Day 1. As much as I love Chris Godwin, I’m not holding my breath for an immediate return to pre-injury form from a devastating ankle injury at age 29. Mike Evans will be 32 at the start of the season. As much as Tampa uses three wide receiver sets, Egbuka should see the field plenty in his rookie season. It’s not out of the question for him to wind up as the top rookie wide receiver of this class and completely smash his ADP.
120. Rico Dowdle (RB37, CAR) – Despite leaving Dallas for the land of the pines, Rico Dowdle once again finds himself stuck behind an incumbent starter. But don’t sleep on Dowdle’s potential to carve out a role in the Carolina offense. He’s a much better pass catcher than Chuba Hubbard, and per Dwain McFarland, Dowdle ran most of the running back routes with the starters and was on the field in third-and-long situations. The Panthers could have themselves a full-blown committee, lowering the ceiling of Hubbard and bringing Dowdle into standalone FLEX territory. But as we saw in Dallas last season, Dowdle can put up solid fantasy numbers if given the touches. He’s practically free with an ADP of 142 overall. He’s not a must-draft, but he’s certainly someone to keep an eye on early in the season.
121. Najee Harris (RB38, LAC) – Until we know the true severity of Najee Harris‘ Fourth of July eye injury, it’s impossible to rank him accurately. At the time of writing, Harris had just begun to return to practice to run drills, but nothing more. I don’t expect him to miss multiple regular-season games, but the truth is, at this point, we don’t know. If/when Harris returns, expect him to get just enough work to hold FLEX value while lowering the floor for stud rookie Omarion Hampton.
122. Ray Davis (RB39, BUF) – As much as the Buffalo Bills run the ball, all of their running backs should be on your radar. Ray Davis is the direct handcuff to James Cook, who recently secured the bag. So dreams of a holdout or trade leading to Davis becoming the starter are, in the words of *NSYNC, “Gone”. But Davis is a worthy stash at the end of the benches as a lottery ticket.
123. Aaron Jones Sr. (RB40, MIN) – I’ve understandably caught a lot of heat for my exceptionally low rank of Aaron Jones Sr., but I’ve got the rationale to back it up. Jones is 30 years old, ancient for a running back. In the past 10 seasons, only 14 running backs 30 or older averaged 12+ points per game and played in at least eight games. He was inefficient, ranking in the bottom 10 in avoided tackle rate, yards after contact, and explosive run rate among all running backs with at least 150 carries. Jones totaled -2 yards on 13 carries inside the five, which led to the offensive acquisition of Mason, who KOC has made it clear will handle the short-yard and uber valuable goal-line carries.
124. Rachaad White (RB41, TB) – Rachaad White had his starting job pilfered by Bucky Irving last season, but considering his career 3.8 yards per carry average, it’s not all that surprising. As long as White continues to see a solid amount of targets, he is viable as a FLEX play. But White suffered a groin injury in Week 1 of the preseason and is expected to miss time. That could open the door for teammate Sean Tucker to carve out a larger role, and it wouldn’t be Bucky losing touches.
125. Tre’ Harris (WR50, LAC) – The second-round rookie was getting some significant offseason hype, but performed poorly in his first preseason action. He earned one target and was unable to reel it in, finishing with a big fat goose egg on 28 snaps. Considering the recent signing of Keenan Allen, Harris’s breakout potential has taken a serious hit. He’s worth a late-round flyer, but not a must-stash by any means.
126. Braelon Allen (RB42, NYJ) – As I mentioned in Breece Hall‘s blurb, we’ve yet to see him back to the pre-injury form. The drum beats continue to get louder, suggesting a Lions-esque committee could be in store for the Jets with new offensive coordinator Tanner Engstrand following Aaron Glenn from Detroit. We’ve seen flashes of elite upside from Braelon Allen. If Hall were to go down with an injury, Allen has RB1 upside.
127. Jayden Higgins (WR51, HOU) – C.J. Stroud‘s supporting cast will look much different this year after a serious step back from his 2023 Rookie Of The Year season. Stefon Diggs signed with New England in free agency. Tank Dell is likely out for the entire 2025 season thanks to a gruesome Week 14 knee injury. The duo averaged a total of 13.4 targets between them, so there are plenty of vacated targets to go around for the new look Texans WR corps. Jayden Higgins is talented enough to make a push for second billing in Houston’s target hierarchy, but he’ll battle with veteran Christian Kirk for it. Unless Higgins erupts over the final few weeks of the preseason, he’s more of a draft-and-stash than a potential Week 1 fantasy starter.
128. Dallas Goedert (TE15, PHI) – Dallas Goedert had the worst fantasy finish of his career in 2024, but there aren’t any noteworthy or surprising statistics that point to a production cliff. Goedert played in only 10 games, the fewest of his career. However, compared to the prior five seasons, Goedert’s stats either exceeded or remained virtually unchanged in 2024. His targets per game went down a whopping — checks notes — half a target. His yards per route run last season ranked 17th. Not at the tight end position, among all players. Among tight ends? Goedert’s YPRR ranked 2nd to George Kittle (2.5 to 2.4). It’s pretty straightforward if you examine the numbers and apply common sense. Goedert is virtually being drafted at his floor.
129. Jared Goff (QB21, DET) – Jared Goff‘s floor is a lot lower than most want to admit. It’s not just the fact that the Lions lost Ben Johnson as a play caller; it’s the fact that their offensive line underwent a significant overhaul this offseason with the retirement of C Frank Ragnow and the loss of OG Kevin Zeitler in free agency. The Lions offense isn’t going to become one of the league’s worst, and Goff (hopefully) won’t spontaneously combust, but with an ADP of QB10, he won’t wind up on any of my fantasy teams in either 1QB or Superflex.
130. Jack Bech (WR52, LV) – The Raiders’ weak WR corps consists of Jakobi Meyers, and that’s about it. Rookie receiver Jack Bech has impressed in training camp and has a chance to see substantial volume from day one. Brock Bowers can’t catch all the passes. Right?
131. Jaylen Warren (RB43, PIT) – Just as Jaylen Warren truthers thought he’d get his time to shine with Najee Harris moving on to LA, the Steelers drafted a running back in the third round. Pittsburgh added Kaleb Johnson, a versatile back coming off a 1,537 rushing yard and 21 touchdown season. Knowing awful Arthur Smith’s disregard for common sense, the season likely starts as a true 50/50 committee. But I expect Johnson to become the lead back before long. Despite what you may hear elsewhere, Jaylen Warren is Just A Guy.
132. Rashid Shaheed (WR53, NO) – Rashid Shaheed had a blistering start to the 2024 season, scoring double-digit fantasy points in four of six games and catching a touchdown in three. Sadly, the breakout was snipped short in Week 6 due to a knee injury that ended his season. Shaheed’s involvement in the offense was on the rise, averaging nine targets from Weeks 4-6 after averaging just under five in the first three. There is concern with the Saints’ Quarterback situation. Shaheed would benefit most from Shough’s big arm ability, but he did see seven targets in the lone game he and Rattler played together. Shaheed should see enough volume as the set starter across from Chris Olave to return value on his WR57 ADP. The Saints’ suspect defense should lead to the offense having to air it out plenty as they play from behind. He’s a threat to take it to the house every time he touches the ball, and garbage time points count just the same in fantasy.
Tier 11
133. Luther Burden III (WR54, CHI) – I like Luther Burden III’s dynasty prospects, but he’ll have a hard time carving out a significant role among the crowded group of pass catchers in Chicago. He’s a draft-and-stash player for now.
134. Dylan Sampson (RB44, CLE) – Similar to the Rashee Rice/Xavier Worthy discussion, so much of Dylan Sampson‘s fantasy value relies on what becomes of Quinshon Judkins‘ potential/inevitable suspension. If Judkins misses the entire season, Sampson is in line for a heavy workload and immediately becomes a borderline RB2. But if Judkins plays in 2025, his return would relegate Sampson back to handcuff territory.
135. Michael Penix Jr. (QB22, ATL) – Michael Penix Jr. showed some growth over his first three starts in the Falcons’ final three games. He did throw an interception in each game and totalled just three touchdowns, but his yardage totals and touchdowns increased with each game. He’s a wild card from a fantasy perspective with a wide range of outcomes. Penix finds himself in a great situation with a plethora of weapons, but an older prospect with an injury history does have a cloud of risk following him. If you draft him in 1QB leagues, be sure to pair him with a safe, high-floor option like Geno Smith in case Penix flops.
136. Ricky Pearsall (WR55, SF) – With the Jauan Jennings contract situation and Brandon Aiyuk set to miss the start of the season, Ricky Pearsall could start the season as the WR1 for the Niners. He finished his rookie season strong and could emerge as a WR2 if he ends up as a top option for Brock Purdy.
137. Jaylin Noel (WR56, HOU) – The second of two Iowa State wide receivers drafted by the Texans, I’ve found Jaylin Noel making his way on more and more of my teams. He’ll have every opportunity to earn touches in a wide-open receiver room, and his cost is zero.
138. Christian Kirk (WR57, HOU) – It’s been reported by Texans beat reporter DJ Bien-Aime that early in training camp, Kirk has seemingly developed into a safety blanket for C.J. Stroud. Kirk produced when he was on the field, averaging 14 yards per catch and 1.84 yards per route run in 2024, just behind former Jacksonville teammate and stud receiver Brian Thomas Jr. The last time Kirk played a full season, he finished as WR11 in total points. He’s not going to finish anywhere near that this season, but especially in PPR formats, he’s a solid WR3 being drafted outside the top 50 receivers. Draft Kirk instead of having to pay up to grab him off waivers a week or two into the season.
139. Jake Ferguson (TE16, DAL) – Jake Ferguson is the fantasy football equivalent of a slice of bread and a glass of water. He has his role. He’ll get the job done. But you’re not excited about starting him.
140. Cameron Ward (QB23, TEN) – The first overall pick in this year’s draft is not someone I’m interested in for fantasy purposes. I’m not drafting Cam Ward in 1QB leagues, and he’s a backup at best in Superflex.
141. Darnell Mooney (WR58, ATL) – At WR46, there’s little risk in drafting Darnell Mooney. He’s a solid WR3 who can win you weeks. If the Falcons’ offense rises with Penix under center, he could easily jump into the top 24. He could miss a game or two at the start of the season due to a shoulder injury sustained in practice, but it’s not considered long-term.
142. Jakobi Meyers (WR59, LV) – Jakobi Meyers is a McDouble: high floor, very low ceiling. He won’t win you any weeks by himself, but he’s a fair PPR bench option and a potential FLEX fill-in during bye weeks.
143. Rhamondre Stevenson (RB45, NE) – I was high on Rhamondre Stevenson over the past few seasons, and he’s produced solid numbers. But his inability to hold onto the ball (seven fumbles last season) and inefficiency led the Patriots to draft TreVeyon Henderson in the second round of this year’s draft. Stevenson likely starts the season in a timeshare with Henderson, but the rookie is talented enough to completely take over the backfield. It may be over for Rhamondre.
144. Isaiah Likely (TE17, BAL) – One of my flag plants this season, a fractured foot and subsequent surgery have put the kabosh on Isaiah Likely‘s early-season potential. He’s not expected to miss a ton of time, but he’ll have to work back to game speed before producing on the field. If you have the room, he’s worth a draft-and-stash, but don’t let him float on waivers too long. Likely hasn’t lost his ceiling.
145. Jaydon Blue (RB46, DAL) – Reports of the team’s unhappiness with Jaydon Blue‘s work ethic appear to be entirely fabricated. He’s impressive in training camp and a name to keep an eye on in case he can take over a wide-open Cowboys backfield.
146. Javonte Williams (RB47, DAL) – The favorite to start the season as the Cowboys’ starting running back, Javonte Williams, is another in a long line of “what-ifs” whose ceiling is likely never reached due to injury. There’s a snowball’s chance he could have a career resurgence in Dallas, but don’t bet on it.
147. Bryce Young (QB24, CAR) – He’s neither a target nor a player I’m explicitly avoiding. But for me, the limited upside isn’t worth the headache of figuring out if the real Bryce Young is his pre-benching or post-benching form from 2024.
148. Tyjae Spears (RB48, TEN) – Tyjae Spears is once again expected to miss significant time due to injury, this time a high ankle sprain. He won’t play the rest of the preseason at a minimum, and likely more. He’s an unreliable handcuff with a smidge of upside.
149. Keon Coleman (WR60, BUF) – Keon Coleman is my favorite kind of post-hype sleeper. Those who were in on him last season expected him to slide right in and become the next Stefon Diggs, and because that didn’t happen, they’ve written him off. No, Coleman wasn’t the most targeted receiver on the Bills. Dalton Kincaid had more targets, too. But he tied for the team lead in receiving touchdowns (4) despite playing in just 13 games. He was also Mr. Hailee Steinfeld’s go-to guy downfield. Coleman led the Bills in deep targets (18) and more than doubled the average depth of the target of Kincaid and nearly tripled that of Khalil Shakir.
150. Wan’Dale Robinson (WR61, NYG) – Wan’Dale Robinson quietly had 140 targets last season and was the only Giant not named Nabers to see more than 70 targets. He was one of just 11 receivers with 90+ catches and over 100 targets, but the only one to finish outside of the top 16 at the position. Robinson’s WR36 finish certainly wasn’t helped by the abysmally poor offense he was on, as well as the 78.9% catchable target rate he received, which ranked 24th among qualifying WRs. I don’t envision Robinson seeing another 140 targets, but another season of playing second fiddle to Nabers should make 100+ easily attainable. That alone makes him a viable option for your FLEX spot or a bye week fill-in, but mostly if you’re playing in a PPR format.
151. Tahj Brooks (RB49, CIN) – Shoutout to our very own Chris Helle for putting me on to Tahj Brooks. The Bengals’ release of Zack Moss elevates Brooks to actual handcuff status, and if he gets enough work in the pass game, he has potential standalone FLEX value.
152. Geno Smith (QB25, LV) – The McDouble of Quarterbacks. If a McDouble passes a touchdown to a McDouble, is that a McDouble Double?
153. DeMario Douglas (WR62, NE) – We saw flashes from Pop Douglas last season, but he has become an afterthought with the Patriots’ acquisition of Stefon Diggs. Opportunities are plentiful in an offense in need of playmakers and an emerging talent at quarterback.
Tier 12
154. Mason Taylor (TE18, NYJ) – The competition for targets behind Garrett Wilson is a washed Allen Lazard and a couple of J.A.G.s. Mason Taylor‘s path to targets is a wide-open, freshly paved four-lane highway. Warren is the only tight end at LSU to ever hit 100 catches and 1,000 yards. The pass-catching chops are not a question. His only concern is his blocking; if that doesn’t keep him off the field, Taylor has the skill and opportunity to be this year’s breakout.
155. Jerome Ford (RB50, CLE) – Currently slotted in as the Browns’ starting running back with the uncertainty surrounding Quinshon Judkins. He failed to do anything when he had this backfield to himself in 2023 after Nick Chubb’s injury. He’s a warm body with little to no upside.
156. Roschon Johnson (RB51, CHI) – Chicago’s offensive line has been significantly upgraded this offseason, and with Ben Johnson on the sidelines calling plays, the offense is expected to be substantially improved. Johnson is still just 24 years old; if he can become the “Knuckles” to Swift’s “Sonic”, Johnson would be in line for major fantasy production. A $1 scratch off where you’re trying to win $1,000,000.
157. Dalton Kincaid (TE19, BUF) – Still holds some upside strictly due to his age and athletic profile, but Dalton Kincaid is part of the tight end glob of mediocrity.
158. Matthew Stafford (QB26, LAR) – Reports are “confident” out of Rams camp that Matthew Stafford will be ready for Week 1 despite his current back issues. But I’m staying far away from the 37-year-old quarterback with a history of back issues who had to get an epidural because of bulging disc pain.
159. Jarquez Hunter (RB52, LAR) – The rookie has sky-high upside if he finds himself with significant touches, but Jarquez Hunter is nothing more than a handcuff for now.
160. Woody Marks (RB53, HOU) – Houston traded up and gave a 2026 third-round pick to draft Woody Marks, so there’s obviously something they see in him. With Joe Mixon and Nick Chubb already dealing with injuries, Marks could find himself in a position to earn a role in the offense early in the season.
161. Jaylen Wright (RB54, MIA) – The handcuff to De’Von Achane, it appears Jaylen Wright is also the goal line back for the Dolphins. He offers sneaky touchdown upside if that holds throughout the season.
162. Quinshon Judkins (RB55, CLE) – Until his legal matters are resolved, Quinshon Judkins is the biggest question mark of 2025. If he misses fewer than six games, I’d be willing to draft him somewhere in the 80-100 range. Anything more than that, he’s outside the top 50 RBs.
163. Marquise Brown (WR63, KC) – The Temu Xavier Worthy. Hollywood Brown could have some big games in a Chiefs offense expected to air it out more, but he’s not in the top four in Mahomes’ target hierarchy. He’d need a long Rashee Rice suspension or injuries ahead of him to have real fantasy value.
164. Adonai Mitchell (WR64, IND) – A big play threat in a crowded group of pass catchers on a team with mediocre quarterback play. A potential waiver wire watch.
165. Cedric Tillman (WR65, CLE) – He had a Travis Fulgham-esque three-game stretch that looks to be more of a flash in the pan than a potential breakout.
166. Bhayshul Tuten (RB56, JAC) – The chiq late-round rookie running back is everyone’s obsession this year. If he earns significant touches, he’s got the wiggle and zoom to put up some crooked numbers. But he’s more likely a target for 2026, when free-agent-to-be Travis Etienne Jr. is likely no longer on the team.
167. Rashod Bateman (WR66, BAL) – A better Baltimore Raven than a member of your fantasy team. Rashod Bateman will have a few blow-up weeks, but chances are he’ll be on your bench when he does.
168. Brashard Smith (RB57, KC) – Nothing more than a name to watch. Brashard Smith has serious upside, but has multiple names ahead of him to start the season.
169. Jalen McMillan (WR67, TB) – Jalen McMillan will have a role in the Bucs offense, but lacks the upside of rookie receiver Emeka Egbuka. Don’t be fooled into overdrafting him after his TD onslaught to finish 2024–there is too much target competition in this offense.
170. MarShawn Lloyd (RB58, GB) – His rookie season was over before it started, playing in just one game before succumbing to injury. Appears fully healthy and could be the handcuff to Josh Jacobs in a potent Packers offense.
171. Kyle Williams (WR68, NE) – Keep an eye on rookie Kyle Williams. If he can carve out a role in the Patriots’ offense, he has the talent to become more than just fantasy viable. For now, he’s probably not cracking your rosters in redraft leagues as more than a late bench stash.
172. Sam Darnold (QB27, SEA) – Good on Sam Darnold for cashing in all his chips from his career revival in Minnesota, but he won’t have the Vikings’ offensive line in Seattle, where he may find himself seeing ghosts once again. Seattle was one of the worst pass-blocking units in the entire league in 2024, with an average time to pressure for their quarterbacks of 2.5 seconds. When Darnold had over 2.5 seconds before pressure last season, he completed 73.8% of his passes. But when he had 2.5 seconds or less? His completion percentage plummeted to 45.5%. The Seahawks did make moves in an attempt to shore up the o-line. But even if the line improves, Darnold’s going to see an exponential increase in pressure when he drops back in Seattle. I’m avoiding at all costs.
173. Xavier Legette (WR69, CAR) – I like the talent. I love the person even more. But I don’t trust Bryce Young to be able to support multiple wide receivers for fantasy, and I expect Tet McMillian to eat targets like Kirby.
Tier 13
174. Dalton Schultz (TE20, HOU) – See: Ferguson, Jake.
175. Blake Corum (RB59, LAR) – I’d be much more interested had the Rams not drafted Jarquez Hunter, but Blake Corum still has upside if he found himself with significant touches.
176. Ollie Gordon II (RB60, MIA) – Not draftable, but a name I’m watching very closely on the waiver wire.
177. Hunter Henry (TE21, NE) – Another esteemed member of the tight end glob of mediocrity.
178. Austin Ekeler (RB61, WAS) – Wonderful human being. Former fantasy stud. Nothing more than a low-tier FLEX.
179. Pat Freiermuth (TE22, PIT) – If you wait on tight end like I tend to do, pair Pat Freiermuth with an upside play along the lines of Kyle Pitts (I still believe), Isaiah Likely, or Mason Taylor. If they fall flat, you’ll have a firm foundation to fall back on.
180. Mike Gesicki (TE23, CIN) – Gesicki’s borderline starter status took a tumble with the Bengals’ addition of Noah Fant. He’ll have some solid games, catch a few touchdowns, and dazzle us with some horrendous dance moves, but he should live on the waiver wire in most leagues.
181. Daniel Jones (QB28, IND) – A potential post-hype sleeper who costs nearly nothing, if Jones wins the starting job and the Colts’ o-line can give him time, Danny Dimes could come out of hibernation and offer solid QB2 numbers. Yes, you read that right.
182. Anthony Richardson Sr. (QB29, IND) – I’m unsure if Anthony Richardson Sr. can ever put it together. But he’s worth stashing just in case. He’ll have a QB1 overall ceiling until the day he retires. Hopefully, he can learn to pass.
183. Tyler Allgeier (RB62, ATL) – Bijan Robinson‘s handcuff, nothing more.
184. Jalen Royals (WR70, KC) – A talented fourth-round rookie, Jalen Royals is buried on the depth chart by talented receivers all around him.
185. Elijah Mitchell (RB63, KC) – Outside of Elijah Mitchell, the only additions at the position for the Chiefs were re-signing soon-to-be 30-year-old Kareem Hunt and seventh-round pick Brashard Smith. Significant opportunity if Isiah Pacheco were to miss time or is unable to return to pre-injury form, but the fact that there are multiple potential handcuffs makes this handcuff’s upside less clear.
186. Cade Otton (TE24, TB) – Had a solid six-game stretch for the Bucs, but Cade Otton is yet another esteemed member of the tight end glob of mediocrity.
187. DJ Giddens (RB64, IND) – Didn’t look great in his first preseason game, but it’s too early to write him off just yet. Worth watching as Jonathan Taylor‘s handcuff.
188. Darren Waller (TE25, MIA) – From retirement straight to the PUP list. Waller could catch a few touchdowns, but he’s not fantasy relevant.
189. Miles Sanders (RB65, DAL) – Could stumble into a few starts based on the Cowboys’ RB room, but not much upside.
190. Jordan James (RB66, SF) – Any running back on the 49ers roster is worth keeping an eye on.
191. Isaac Guerendo (RB67, SF) – Any running back on the 49ers roster is worth keeping an eye on. Was that an echo?
192. Terrance Ferguson (TE26, LAR) – Not someone I’m drafting, but I do like the potential for Terrance Ferguson to become one of those “lightning in a bottle” tight ends if he can carve out a role in the offense. A name to remember.
193. Jacory Croskey-Merritt (RB68, WAS) – The belle of the preseason fantasy football (I’m sorry), and an intriguing deep sleeper who’s impressed this preseason.
Tier 14
194. Nick Chubb (RB69, HOU) – Even with the injury status of Joe Mixon, I’m not interested in Nick Chubb this season. He’s talented enough to make me eat my words, but he’d have to find the fountain of youth first.
195. Russell Wilson (QB30, NYG) – A sneaky Superflex target who could put up some solid point totals. Nothing more than a QB3/backup, but intriguing with Malik Nabers as his WR1.
196. Jaxson Dart (QB31, NYG) – I expect to see Jaxson Dart make a few starts this season, but the question is when. He’s off the 1QB radar, but a name to watch for Superflex leagues if/when he becomes the Giants starter.
197. Elijah Arroyo (TE27, SEA) – A tad more intriguing with the Seahawks’ release of Noah Fant, but he has to beat out AJ Barner first.
198. Jalen Nailor (WR71, MIN) – A potential FLEX starter while Jordan Addison is suspended for the first three weeks of the season.
199. Isaiah Davis (RB70, NYJ) – Isaiah Davis could see some run in a potential Jets committee, but would need an injury to Breece Hall or Braelon Allen to become fantasy viable.
200. Dyami Brown (WR72, JAC) – Dyami Brown could see more run than most WR3s with Travis Hunter‘s snaps limited by playing both sides of the ball.
201. Romeo Doubs (WR73, GB) – A solid member of the Green Bay Packers’ overcrowded receiver room. Romeo Doubs will have startable weeks. The problem is guessing which they are.
202. Quentin Johnston (WR74, LAC) – A glimmer of hope remains thanks to the retirement of Mike Williams. If Quentin Johnston could solve his drop issues, he’d be a lot higher on this list.
203. Dontayvion Wicks (WR75, GB) – Romeo Doubs 2: Electric Boogaloo.
204. Alec Pierce (WR76, IND) – The guy you pick up and start in desperation when you realize your starter is on BYE. Alec Pierce will get you two or 20 points. There is no in between.
205. A.J. Dillon (RB71, PHI) – Intriguing name to watch in case the curse of 370 indeed hits Saquon Barkley.
206. Devin Neal (RB72, NO) – In the discussion for the Saints’ backup running back job. Set to miss multiple weeks with a hamstring injury.
207. Kendre Miller (RB73, NO) – The favorite to start the season as the Saints’ backup running back, but should change his legal name to Kendre Meh-ller.
208. Andrei Iosivas (WR77, CIN) – Incredibly handsome, but would need an injury to Ja’Marr Chase or Tee Higgins to sniff any fantasy value.
209. Marvin Mims Jr. (WR78, DEN) – A boom/bust dart throw when bye-mageddon hits. Could lose playing time if rookie Pat Bryant emerges.
210. Tre Tucker (WR79, LV) – The likely WR2 in Las Vegas, Tre Tucker, could be a low-end FLEX play based on volume.
211. Adam Thielen (WR80, CAR) – Adam Thielen will remain a threat to catch a touchdown at 78 years old. He’ll have a few good games when the volume comes his way, but Tet McMillian will steal the majority of those away.
212. DeAndre Hopkins (WR81, BAL) – Expect production similar to what we saw from DeAndre Hopkins in Kansas City.
213. Keenan Allen (WR82, LAC) – The best-case scenario is that he has a similar season to last year. The worst-case scenario is the 33-year-old plays like a 33-year-old.
214. Hunter Renfrow (WR83, CAR) – Not a lock to make the team, but an intriguing flyer if he does.
215. Theo Johnson (TE28, NYG) – A sneaky tight end sleeper if he can earn a somewhat meaningful target share.
216. Calvin Austin III (WR84, PIT) – The Steelers’ weak WR corps consists of DK Metcalf, and that’s about it. A chance to see substantial volume from day one. Metcalf can’t catch all the passes. Right?
217. Jalen Coker (WR85, CAR) – A couple of big games in his rookie season caused his truthers to call themselves “Cokeheads”. Do with that information what you will.
218. Harold Fannin Jr. (TE29, CLE) – Currently behind David Njoku on the pecking order, but Harold Fannin Jr. has the talent to emerge as his heir apparent. A solid Dynasty stash, but not an add in redraft leagues unless Njoku gets hurt.
219. Jalen Tolbert (WR86, DAL) – Coming off a career year, Jalen Tolbert is set to enter the season as the Cowboys’ WR3.
220. Chig Okonkwo (TE30, TEN) – The once uber hyped fantasy darling finished the 2024 season strong. There’s a chance he could still become a thing, but keep an eye on rookie Gunnar Helm.
221. Cole Kmet (TE31, CHI) – As a former member of the Cole Kmet Club, it hurts to say that the dream is dead. He’ll have some solid games, but it wouldn’t be a shock to see him traded.
222. Will Shipley (RB74, PHI) – A handcuff to Saquon Barkley is worth watching regardless of who it is.
223. Trevor Etienne (RB75, CAR) – The fourth-rounder is battling for the RB3 spot on the Panthers.
224. Kyle Monangai (RB76, CHI) – A sneaky late-round dart throw that would pay huge dividends if he can become the Bears’ version of David Montgomery.
225. Jonnu Smith (TE32, PIT) – The fact that Jonnu Smith is being drafted as the TE11 before upside plays like Colston Loveland, Tucker Kraft, and even former teammate Kyle Pitts is absurd. Yes, Jonnu set previous career highs with Arthur Smith in Atlanta the season prior, but nowhere near his breakout 2024 numbers. 50 catches, 582 yards, three touchdowns, and a TE17 finish. How did he finish while they were together in Tennessee from 2017 to 2020? TE 49, TE 35, and TE20.
Tier 15
226. Denver Broncos (DST1, DEN) – The top fantasy defense from a year ago starts the season off facing Tennessee and Indianapolis. Yes please. If you’re not waiting until the last two rounds to take your defense, the Broncos are one of the few teams I’d be okay with snagging a few rounds early.
227. Tyler Lockett (WR87, TEN) – Should start for the Titans and could be a veteran safety blanket for rookie Cameron Ward.
228. Houston Texans (DST2, HOU) – Gets to face the Colts, Titans, and Jags twice each.
229. Roman Wilson (WR88, PIT) – Opportunity awaits behind DK Metcalf on the Steelers depth chart. Wilson has the talent to take advantage.
230. Minnesota Vikings (DST3, MIN) – Finished in the top five in sacks and first in interceptions last season.
231. Elijah Moore (WR89, BUF) – A deep threat on a team that lost a couple of deep threats and likes to throw the deep ball.
232. Philadelphia Eagles (DST4, PHI) – Gets to face the Giants and Cowboys twice, led the league in turnovers, and racks up plenty of sacks.
233. Kareem Hunt (RB77, KC) – Proved he still has it last season, earning another contract with the Chiefs. A viable FLEX if he winds up with a solid number of touches.
234. Justice Hill (RB78, BAL) – Justice Hill is a desperation FLEX play who needs a touchdown to get over the double-digit point threshold.
235. Aaron Rodgers (QB32, PIT) – Could Aaron Rodgers have some weeks he’s a viable fantasy starter? Sure. He’s a four-time MVP after all. But I’m not all that interested in a soon-to-be 42-year-old Rodgers two years removed from a ruptured Achilles in an awful Arthur Smith offense. Hard Pass.
236. Joe Flacco (QB33, CLE) – If he starts, Elite Joe Flacco is an option as a QB2 in Superflex leagues.
237. Shedeur Sanders (QB34, CLE) – Looked good in his first preseason start. Worth watching in case he shocks the world and makes the rest of the league eat their words.
238. Christian Watson (WR90, GB) – Should be back this season, but he’ll start on the PUP list. Worth a stash if your league has IR slots.
239. Darius Slayton (WR91, NYG) – A desperation FLEX play with boom potential if Russell Wilson can hit him with a deep ball.
240. Antonio Gibson (RB79, NE) – An injury away from being fantasy viable in New England.
241. Noah Fant (TE33, CIN) – Limited ceiling considering his target competition. But worth watching, considering the tight end position.
242. Devin Singletary (RB80, NYG) – Could be in line for more early-season work than anticipated with rookie Cam Skattebo battling a hamstring injury.
243. Damien Martinez (RB81, SEA) – Considering the injury history of the guys ahead of him, he’s an intriguing name to keep an eye on.
244. Taysom Hill (TE34, NO) – A true enigma of the fantasy football world, the TE/QB/RB/WR’s timetable to return is unclear after a season-ending knee injury last season. If/when he returns this season, he’s the definition of a lottery ticket. It remains to be seen how he’ll be used in a Kellen Moore offense.
245. Keaton Mitchell (RB82, BAL) – Looked explosive in the Ravens’ first preseason game; could become FLEX viable if he regularly spells King Henry.
246. Luke Musgrave (TE35, GB) – Another esteemed member of the tight end glob of mediocrity. This time with less upside!
247. Sean Tucker (RB83, TB) – In line for a larger role if Rachaad White‘s injury lingers.
248. Raheem Mostert (RB84, LV) – Nothing more than Ashton Jeanty‘s handcuff, and an old and injury-prone one at that.
249. Michael Mayer (TE36, LV) – The rare tight end handcuff. Would hold value if Brock Bowers missed time.
250. AJ Barner (TE37, SEA) – Lower upside than Arroyo, but holds the inside lane on the Seahawks’ starting TE spot.
251. Baltimore Ravens (DST5, BAL) – Year in and year out, one of the best defenses in fantasy and real life.
252. Michael Wilson (WR92, ARI) – A late-round flyer who’s shown flashes of productivity over his first two seasons.
253. Ty Johnson (RB85, BUF) – A handcuff to James Cook, worth keeping an eye on considering how much the Bills run the ball.
254. Jalen Milroe (QB35, SEA) – High upside QB to watch in case Sam Darnold starts seeing ghosts again.
255. New England Patriots (DST6, NE) – Gets to face the Jets and Dolphins twice.
256. Isaac TeSlaa (WR93, DET) – A strong preseason has TeSlaa emerging as the potential WR3 for Detroit.
257. Parker Washington (WR94, JAC) – Scored double-digit fantasy points in three of the Jaguars’ final six games, and is an intriguing deep sleeper to keep an eye on considering the potential upside of Jacksonville’s Liam Coen-led offense.
258. Dameon Pierce (RB86, HOU) – With Joe Mixon and Nick Chubb already dealing with injury, Dameon Pierce could find himself in line for significant touches. Limited upside, but we’ve seen him have stretches of productivity.
259. Pittsburgh Steelers (DST7, PIT) – An already loaded defense led by T.J. Watt that added Jalen Ramsey, Darius Slay, and rookie defensive end Derrick Harmon in the first round.
260. Detroit Lions (DST8, DET) – One of four teams to allow fewer than 20 passing touchdowns in 2024. Sack total should jump with the return of DE Aidan Hutchinson.
261. Buffalo Bills (DST9, BUF) – Led the NFL in turnover differential in 2024.
262. Kansas City Chiefs (DST10, KC) – The McDouble of fantasy defenses.
263. Los Angeles Chargers (DST11, LAC) – Top 10 last season in sacks and interceptions, and a juicy schedule from Weeks 2-5.
264. Green Bay Packers (DST12, GB) – Top 10 in sacks and interceptions in 2024.
265. Seattle Seahawks (DST13, SEA) – A dark horse to finish as a top five fantasy defense on the backs of their strong D-line and secondary.
266. Spencer Rattler (QB36, NO) – Currently the favorite to open the season as the Saints’ starting quarterback, but expect an ever-changing carousel in New Orleans. Spencer Rattler (or whoever starts) is at best a desperation Superflex play.
267. Tyler Shough (QB37, NO) – The ceiling is certainly limited with Shough; he had turnover issues in college and has a reputation for making slow reads. But considering the strong set of weapons he’ll have at his disposal (Chris Olave, Rashid Shaheed, Alvin Kamara) and a head coach in Kellen Moore known for his elite offenses as an OC, Shough is a free lottery ticket. He’s more of a target in Superflex leagues, but there’s no risk at an ADP of QB34. He could offer some upside as a solid 1QB league backup with occasional spike weeks.
268. Ray-Ray McCloud III (WR95, ATL) – Ray-Ray McCloud III stands to gain the most value while Darnell Mooney is out. He’s a low-end WR3/FLEX play while Mooney is on the shelf.
269. Kimani Vidal (RB87, LAC) – Offers upside as the likely RB3 behind Hampton and Harris, but needs to perform over the final weeks of the preseason to avoid being cut.
270. Sincere McCormick (RB88, LV) – Buried behind Raheem Mostert and Zamir White on the depth chart, but showed promise when given the opportunity in 2024.
271. Tutu Atwell (WR96, LAR) – As long as Matthew Stafford is under center, Tutu Atwell is fine as a deep high-risk, high-reward FLEX play.
272. Demarcus Robinson (WR97, SF) – Demarcus Robinson could miss some games with a possible suspension looming, but a sneaky early-season FLEX play for a 49ers team desperate for pass catchers.
273. Jahan Dotson (WR98, PHI) – Still just 25 years old, he can provide WR2 value if he were to ever put it all together. Likely the Eagles’ WR3 to start the season, but would need to see consistent production before even considering Jahan Dotson is a name to watch on the waiver wire, but nothing more.
274. Allen Lazard (WR99, NYJ) – He’ll hold some low-end FLEX value some weeks simply due to the lack of pass catchers behind Garrett Wilson, but Allen Lazard is the awful combo of low floor, low ceiling.
275. Zamir White (RB89, LV) – We’ve seen the upside when given enough work, but Zamir White is off the fantasy radar unless Mostert gets hurt or demoted.
276. Elic Ayomanor (WR100, TEN) – An intriguing sleeper after the release of Treylon Burks. A draft-and-stash at best, but more along the lines of a guy to keep an eye on.
277. Cam Akers (RB90, NO) – Another “what if” working to earn the Saints’ backup role.
278. Emanuel Wilson (RB91, GB) – Finished the season scoring in three straight games. In a battle with MarShawn Lloyd for the right to be Josh Jacobs’ backup.
279. Devaughn Vele (WR101, DEN) – Devaughn Vele quietly had seven games over 10 fantasy points in his rookie season. A low-end desperation FLEX play.
280. Brandin Cooks (WR102, NO) – Cool story returning to the team that drafted him. Don’t let him return to your fantasy team.
281. Kayshon Boutte (WR103, NE) – The sixth-round pick’s career has been Boutte so far, but Kayshon can flirt with FLEX value if he’s able to earn a role behind Stefon Diggs.
282. Malik Washington (WR104, MIA) – With Tyreek Hill‘s age and Jonnu Smith traded to the Steelers, there’s a potential opportunity behind Jaylen Waddle
283. Nick Westbrook-Ikhine (WR105, MIA) – see: Washington, Malik
284. Xavier Restrepo (WR106, TEN) – Worth keeping an eye on solely based on his relationship with former college teammate Cameron Ward.
285. Luke McCaffrey (WR107, WAS) – Would need injury or a Terry McLaurin trade to be even remotely fantasy relevant. He’d likely still not be.
286. Jordan Whittington (WR108, LAR) – Last season’s pre-season darling isn’t on the fantasy radar.
287. Tyler Higbee (TE38, LAR) – #NeverHigbee.
288. Jake Bates (K1, DET) – Don’t
289. Brandon Aubrey (K2, DAL) – Draft
290. Harrison Butker (K3, KC) – Your
291. Ka’imi Fairbairn (K4, HOU) – Kicker
292. Chris Boswell (K5, PIT) – Until
293. Graham Gano (K6, NYG) – The
294. Chase McLaughlin (K7, TB) – Last
295. Cameron Dicker (K8, LAC) – Round
296. Cam Little (K9, JAC) – Of
297. Jake Elliott (K10, PHI) – Your
298. Younghoe Koo (K11, ATL) – Fantasy
299. Matt Gay (K12, WAS) – Draft!
300. Frank Gore – Sr. and/or Jr. Both are equally likely to contribute to your fantasy teams.