Tier 6 (Continued)
61. Chris Olave (WR31, NO) – Finishing as a WR2 in each of his first two seasons, many expected Chris Olave to make the jump to WR1 in 2024. Unfortunately, he didn’t get the chance after two concussions in a matter of weeks ended his season early. If Olave can get somewhat decent quarterback play, he’s going to make a lot of us look silly for ranking him so low. Here’s to a full season of good health.
62. Alvin Kamara (RB22, NO) – Although he’s past the dreaded 30-year-old threshold, Alvin Karma is set to age more gracefully than his fantasy counterparts. Despite never rushing for over 1,000 yards, Kamara has finished as an RB1 in seven of eight seasons, ranking a respectable RB16 in 2022. His ADP currently sits at RB15 and 37 overall, which is a little too high for my taste. Slipping even just a round or two would make his cost much more palatable.
63. Evan Engram (TE4, DEN) – I’m eager to see what Evan Engram can do in Denver as Sean Payton’s “Swiss Army Knife”. He’s a dark horse to finish as TE1 overall.
64. D’Andre Swift (RB23, CHI) – With all the changes the Chicago Bears made this offseason, it was a surprise they didn’t add any backfield competition for D’Andre Swift. His first year as a Bear was a bummer, sporting a career-low 3.8 yards per carry, the first in his career under four. Although Swift disappointed from a rushing perspective, he performed through the air. Among backs with a minimum of 35 targets, Swift ranked top 10 in yards per target (7.4), yards per reception (9.2), and yards after the catch per reception (9.6). He caught 42 passes on 52 targets for 386 yards. Those totals have a reasonable chance to go up with new Bears head coach Ben Johnson running the offense. Detroit running backs saw over 100 targets under Johnson in each of the last three seasons, including 70 for Swift as a Lion in 2022. With an ADP of RB24, the risk is already baked in. If the Bears’ offense takes the leap expected under Ben Johnson, a top 10 season is within reach.
65. Rome Odunze (WR32, CHI) – Rome Odunze led the Bears receivers in a plethora of categories during his rookie campaign: yards per target (7.3), yards per reception (13.6), deep targets (23), air yards share (30.8%), and average depth of target (13.8), the only Bears receiver that averaged over 10. Odunze’s involvement increased as the season progressed, a common trend among rookie receivers. He averaged 5.3 targets per game from Weeks 1-8, with the average jumping to 6.9 from Weeks 9-17. If Ben Johnson truly turns around the Bears’ offense, Odunze is primed for a tier jump or three in his second season in Chi-town.
66. James Conner (RB24, ARI) – James Conner tends to be underrated from a fantasy perspective, but I have a cluster of concerns for him heading into 2025. After topping the 200-carry threshold just twice in his first six seasons, Conner managed to do so in back-to-back years over 2023-2024, also attaining his first two 1,000-yard seasons. I try to avoid the label of “injury prone,” but Conner’s never played in a full season, missing two or more games in each of his eight years in the NFL. He also turned 30 in May. That’s not old in “real life” (says the 38-year-old), but it’s ancient in RB years. When you’re looking to cook up a productive running back, start with an age-30 back, throw in a dollop of career-high workload, and sprinkle in a lengthy injury history, you’ve got a recipe for disaster.
67. Chris Godwin (WR33, TB) – The obvious and most prominent looming issue for Chris Godwin is his return from a devastating ankle fracture suffered in Week 7 of last season that required not just one, but also a recently revealed second surgery. He also fractured his fibula and suffered a torn deltoid ligament. This is his second significant injury since 2021, when he tore his ACL and MCL in Week 15. If/when Godwin returns to the field, he’ll be battling more than just age and injury to get back up to form. Add in the emergence of Jalen McMillan last season and the first-round pick spent on Emeka Egbuka, and the Bucs’ wide receiver corps suddenly got real crowded. I’d rather take a chance on a player with higher upside and fewer red flags.
68. Matthew Golden (WR34, GB) – The rich got richer in Green Bay with the addition of Texas WR Matthew Golden in the first round of the draft (the first receiver drafted in the first round by the Packers since Javon Walker in 2002). His ability to stretch the field with elite speed and play both outside and in the slot is a perfect fit for what the Packers want to do on offense. I wouldn’t be shocked if Matthew Golden finishes the season ranked inside the top 25, but the crowded Packers receivers room is always a concern.
69. Travis Hunter (WR35, JAC) – The Jaguars made a splash by trading up to draft Heisman Trophy winner WR/CB Travis Hunter. Jacksonville has already made it known that they view him as a wide receiver first. Considering Hunter’s skillset and the offensive mind of new Jags head coach Liam Coen, the upside is mouthwatering. But we genuinely have no idea how much he’ll play on offense until we see how he’s deployed in the regular season.
Tier 7
70. RJ Harvey (RB25, DEN) – The hype surrounding Broncos rookie RJ Harvey was smothered with a wet blanket when Denver signed veteran JK Dobbins, but that may have been an overreaction. Harvey handled all the carries with the first team offense in the Broncos’ first preseason game, and actually ran more routes than Dobbins despite not playing a single third down snap. Harvey can handle a heavy workload, and if Sean Payton gives the bulk of the carries to the rookie, he’d immediately become a locked-in RB2.
71. Xavier Worthy (WR36, KC) – I love the upside of Xavier Worthy, but so much of his value hinges on how many games Rashee Rice winds up missing due to suspension. While Rice is out, Worthy likely becomes Mahomes’ top target. He’ll still be involved when Rice returns and maintains the same weekly ceiling, but with more mouths to feed, Worthy becomes a much more volatile WR2.
72. Kaleb Johnson (RB26, PIT) – Considering the opportunity and offensive scheme, Kaleb Johnson couldn’t have landed in a better spot for his fantasy value. Arthur Smith loves to run the ball, and he has two capable backs in Johnson and Jaylen Warren. Although Johnson is the superior talent, Warren has been productive over his first three seasons, and I expect him to be a thorn in Johnson’s side, much like he was to former teammate Najee Harris. If given the bulk of the carries, Johnson can put up solid numbers, but with Warren expected to share the load, the rookie running back is more of a borderline RB2.
73. Tank Bigsby (RB27, JAC) – I’ve been in on Tank Bigsby since last year, and he’s one of my favorite post-hype sleepers. Even before the steady drumbeat of positive training camp reports, Bigsby makes more sense. He outproduced Etienne in nearly every rushing category last season and was among the best in the league in both explosive run rate and yard after contact. Don’t shy away from him because he doesn’t have top three potential. As much as I like Bigsby, his upside is capped by his lack of involvement in the passing game. There is absolutely ZERO risk drafting Bigsby at his current ADP. Don’t mistake his lack of top 10 upside for lack of value. Drafting a potential top-24 back outside the top 40 is an incredible boost for your fantasy team.
74. Tony Pollard (RB28, TEN) – Tony Pollard was better than you remember last season. He was certainly better than I remembered. Pollard surpassed 1,000 rushing yards for the third straight season and chipped in 41 catches to finish as RB21. What has me excited for his 2025 prospects are the underlying metrics. Pollard’s 2.76 yards after contact was the sixth-best at the position, and his 5.0% explosive run rate was among the best backs in the league, ahead of De’Von Achane, James Cook, and Bijan Robinson. His main competition for touches is Tyjae Spears, who missed five games last season due to injury. The oft-injured back is already set to miss most of the preseason and potentially the first few weeks after suffering the dreaded high ankle sprain in the Titans’ first preseason game against the Packers. Pollard’s a safe bet as your RB2 and could make a push for borderline RB1 status if Spears cedes the majority of touches.
75. Jordan Love (QB7, GB) – Jordan Love already has a top-five fantasy finish under his belt. But can he do it again, and can he stay on the field? Despite a down season statistically, Love didn’t play all that badly last season. His completion percentage remained virtually the same from 2023, and he improved on multiple efficiency stats, including yards per attempt, average depth of target, and deep throw completion percentage, among them. His depressed counting stats can partially be attributed to an MCL injury in Week 1 that hobbled Love all season, and eventually led to a groin injury in Week 8 that hobbled him even further. I saw nothing that concerns me from an efficiency standpoint with Love that would lead me to put a pause on the excitement for a potential tier jump most had for him a year ago. The difference is that you’re not buying all the risk by drafting him inside the top 10 at the position, unlike last season. Love’s current ADP of QB17 is criminal with the potential explosiveness of the Packers’ offense.
76. Caleb Williams (QB8, CHI) – Despite facing pressure on 29.4% of his dropbacks, merely 2% of Caleb Williams‘ throws were considered turnover-worthy. While his passing numbers left much to be desired, he delivered on his rushing potential. Williams had the 7th most rushing yards among quarterbacks (489) and averaged 6.0 yards per carry. But my excitement for Williams’ potential jump has more to do with his new head coach, former Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson. It’s confirmed he’ll be calling plays in Chicago, which is thrilling to hear for the Bears’ fantasy potential. The Bears made significant moves to address the offensive line, as well as adding two dynamic weapons with their first two draft picks: tight end Colston Loveland and wide receiver Luther Burden III. All things considered, Williams is my dark horse pick to finish as the QB1 overall this season.
77. Khalil Shakir (WR37, BUF) – The Buffalo Bills decided to embrace a wide receiver by committee approach after the departure of their WR1 Stefon Diggs. No Buffalo receiver surpassed 100 targets, but Khalil Shakir led the way with 97. Shakir scored double-digit fantasy points in 11 of 15 games, but over 16 points just three times. He’s what I like to call a McDouble, a solid but unspectacular fantasy option with a high floor but low ceiling.
78. Stefon Diggs (WR38, NE) – Well on his way to a seventh straight 1,000-yard season, Diggs’ season ended abruptly in October with a devastating ACL tear. After an eight-game stint in Houston, Diggs finds himself on his third team in three seasons, joining New England via free agency. Although all reports have been positive in regards to his health, don’t underestimate the hills that Diggs still has to climb. An ACL tear can be a career-altering injury for any athlete. Considering Diggs is 31, a return to pre-injury form is improbable. His status for the start of the season is still up in the air, and all things considered, Diggs isn’t someone I’m targeting.
79. Brian Robinson Jr. (RB29, WAS) – Brian Robinson Jr. is also a McDouble (a solid but unspectacular fantasy option with a high floor but low ceiling). Robinson’s lack of involvement in the pass game and inefficiency (4.3 yards per carry) caps his upside. He doesn’t have a ton of backfield competition, but Jayden Daniels averaged nearly 9 carries a game and had only three fewer red-zone carries. Robinson remains a decent RB3 or FLEX, but not much else.
Tier 8
80. Brock Purdy (QB9, SF) – *Paul Heyman voice* BRRRROOOCKKKK LESNAR PURDY…sorry…Brock Purdy offers a safe floor thanks to the Kyle Shanahan system, but his ceiling is higher than most realize. He’s coming off back-to-back seasons of finishing as a QB1 on a points per game basis. Already averaging 450 pass attempts over that same period, he has a legitimate shot at surpassing 500 in 2025 with the offseason gutting of the 49ers’ defense. Even with Brandon Aiyuk set to miss a solid chunk of the early season and Deebo Samuel now a Commander, Purdy has plenty of weapons in George Kittle, Ricky Pearsall, Jauan Jennings, and, of course, Christian McCaffrey. With an ADP outside the top 100 players, he’s an excellent target in 1QB leagues. He makes for a safe superflex play right on the QB1/QB2 border.