Tier 3 (Continued)
21. Puka Nacua (WR11, LAR) – Matthew Stafford‘s back issues flaring up before the preseason even started have me quite unsettled. If the Rams have to pivot to Jimmy Garoppolo for any extended period, the sky-high ceilings of Puka Nacua (and Davante Adams) get their wings clipped. Whether or not Stafford is available in Week 1, an aggravated disc causing enough pain to require an epidural is not a situation that sparks confidence, especially for a 37-year-old quarterback with a history of chronic back problems. With Sean McVay calling plays and the skillet offered by Puka Nacua, he’ll be productive regardless of who’s under center. Still, similar to Amon-Ra St. Brown, considering the red flags that have arisen, I’m not willing to spend a first-round pick on Nacua.
22. Chase Brown (RB11, CIN) – Volume is king in fantasy football, as the adage goes, and Chase Brown is a textbook example. He wasn’t particularly efficient last season, sporting 4.32 yards per carry. He certainly wasn’t explosive; his 4.4% explosive run rate tied for 23rd out of the 46 running backs with at least 100 carries. However, Cincinnati fed him 229 rushing attempts, and his 63 targets were the sixth most at the position. Brown also saw 52% of the Bengals’ carries inside the five. After the recent release of Zack Moss, his only competition for touches is sixth-round rookie Tahj Brooks. With how bad the Bengals’ defense is projected to be, both can be plenty productive if Brooks earns a few extra touches. Brown’s volume isn’t going anywhere.
23. Jonathan Taylor (RB12, IND) – Jonathan Taylor‘s RB1 finish last season is massively misleading. A considerable part of his stats came against three of the worst teams in the league, who were all very accommodating to opposing running backs. An unprecedented 36% of his rushing yards and 55% of his rushing touchdowns came over the final three games of the season versus the Titans, Giants, and Jaguars. Thanks to the Colts’ shaky quarterback situation, Taylor faced one of the highest rates of stacked boxes in the league (47.5%). With Daniel Jones now part of the QB room, the potential for improvement is mild at best. While Taylor’s talent is tantalizing, his surrounding situation is significantly worse than that of the other backs being drafted near him.
24. Garrett Wilson (WR12, NYJ) – Garrett Wilson has the talent to be a tier 1 receiver for fantasy. Unfortunately, his career has been held back by B-list QBs and the corpse of Aaron Rodgers under center. Nowadays, the vibes are high with the reunion of Wilson with his Ohio State teammate Justin Fields. There’s hope for sure, but I’m also plagued by doubt. Fields has been fine for fantasy due to his mobility, but his passing production has been less than ideal. Wilson will likely be a target hog, but can Fields play well enough to get him a top-12 finish?
Tier 4
25. George Kittle (TE1, SF) – Considering the considerable losses for the 49ers’ defense, the departure of Deebo Samuel, and the health of Brandon Aiyuk and Jauan Jennings, Kittle is positioned for an abundance of targets from Brock Purdy. He’s being drafted at his floor in the fourth round and offers that positional advantage without having to pass on elite fantasy options at other positions.
26. Lamar Jackson (QB1, BAL) – What is there to say that hasn’t already been said about Lamar Jackson? Back-to-back top-five fantasy seasons. He’s finished outside the top 10 twice in the past six years, and only played in 12 games in those seasons. Jackson will flirt with 4,000 passing yards and 1,000 rushing yards. What more could you ask for? The two-time MVP remains one of the rare quarterbacks worthy of drafting in the early rounds of 1QB leagues and a top-six pick in Superflex formats. He’s the gold standard.
27. Jayden Daniels (QB2, WAS) – I’d be lying if I said I wasn’t tempted to rank Jayden Daniels as the top quarterback in fantasy after his phenomenal rookie season. Daneils finished inside the top five after throwing 3,568 passing yards, 25 touchdowns, and just nine interceptions. Daniels has room to grow and teased his 1,000-yard rushing potential, accumulating 891 rushing yards and six rushing touchdowns. He should remain a resident of the top five club for the foreseeable future, and QB1 overall isn’t out of the question as early as this year.
28. Josh Allen (QB3, BUF) – The most dominant fantasy quarterback of the last five-ish years, Josh Allen, has scored a combined 40 touchdowns every season since 2020. Technically, I have him behind Lamar Jackson and Jayden Daniels, but they’re all virtually ranked the same: Elite Tier 1 options that will be some combination of the first three to four quarterbacks off the board. You can’t go wrong with Josh Allen leading your squad.
29. D.J. Moore (WR13, CHI) – D.J. Moore‘s 22.1% target share last season was the 10th highest among all receivers. Moore was a downfield threat as well, with three touchdowns of 20 yards or more, tied for the third-most in the NFL. The expectations for the Bears’ offense have grown significantly with new head coach Ben Johnson taking control of the offense. Chicago did draft stud tight end Colston Loveland in the first round and wide receiver Luther Burden III in the second, so there will be competition for targets. But fantasy managers get blinded by the idea of having a team’s WR1. They’ll pass up good receivers on great offenses when there’s an undefined hierarchy among pass catchers, opting for the top option on a worse offense. All of Chicago’s pass catchers should play a considerable role this season. But Moore will lead the way, and he’s not being drafted like it.
30. Josh Jacobs (RB13, GB) – Despite finishing inside the top 12 at the position four out of the last five seasons, Josh Jacobs is perennially underrated. Jacobs’ first season in Green Bay was one of the best of his career, rushing for 1,329 yards and 15 touchdowns. At age 27, there’s nothing to suggest Jacobs is due for a drop in production. While he lacks some of the upside of his peers, he offers one of the highest floors an RB1 can offer.
31. Tee Higgins (WR14, CIN) – Tee Higgins may be the Cal Naughton Jr to Ja’Marr Chase’s Ricky Bobby, but there’s nothing wrong with silver. In the never-ending quest to collect as many WR1s as possible, fantasy managers often overlook highly productive WR2s. Don’t make that mistake with Higgins. His WR17 finish may look paltry to the untrained eye, but he played in just 12 games last season. In those games, however, he averaged 18.6 points per game, good for the fifth-highest, ahead of guys like Malik Nabers and Nico Collins. The Bengals will once again field one of the worst defenses in the NFL, forcing Joe Burrow to throw the ball a ton. You don’t want to rely on Higgins as your top receiver, but he’s a high-end WR2 who will have plenty of WR1 weeks sprinkled in.
32. Kyren Williams (RB14, LAR) – The disconnect between the game of football and the game about the game of football can blur perceptions of a player’s production. Yes, Kyren Williams is coming off back-to-back 1,000 rushing-yard seasons, but his value relies on a large volume of touches and touchdowns. He was one of six backs with over 300 attempts last season, but his 4.11 yards per carry was the worst among the group (which averaged 4.96 ypc). Williams was the only member of the 300+ carry club with an explosive run rate under 2%. I believe Blake Corum and Jarquez Hunter will get more playing time this season to help keep Williams fresh. A drop in touches may not be disastrous for his floor, but it certainly is for his ceiling. If the Rams offense takes a step back with Stafford ailing, what if Williams doesn’t hit double-digit touchdowns? I like Williams as an RB2, but you’ll have to draft him as an RB1. It’s just not a price I’m willing to pay.
33. Davante Adams (WR15, LAR) – Davante Adams had his least productive season since before the pandemic and still finished as WR9 in points per game. The biggest question for his 2025 season is: what are the chances he sees 140 targets for a sixth straight season as the Rams’ second option? Adams turns 33 in December, and concerns with Stafford’s back broaden the range of outcomes for all of the Rams’ skill position players, and not in a good way. He’s a volatile WR2 with WR1 upside, but it wouldn’t be a shock to see Adams’ production fall off a cliff.
34. Jaxon Smith-Njigba (WR16, SEA) – The Seahawks signed Sam Darnold to replace Geno Smith (who was traded to the Raiders), and I’m wary of his so-called resurrected career. Darnold struggles under pressure, and he’s going from one of the best offensive lines in Minnesota to one of the worst in Seattle. Without much target competition outside of Cooper Kupp, JSN should still get served the biggest piece of the target pie. The problem is that the pie is shrinking. The Seahawks replaced pass-happy Ryan Grubb with run-loving Klint Kubiak at offensive coordinator, and he intends to bring back a more balanced attack. This creates just a little more cloudiness around JSN’s upside than I’d like.
35. Jaylen Waddle (WR17, MIA) – Despite the down year, Jaylen Waddle led all Dolphins receivers in yards per target (9.2), yards per reception (13.2), and had a higher yards after the catch per reception than Tyreek Hill (4.5 to 3.6). With Jonnu Smith traded to Pittsburgh, Tua Tagovailoa healthy, and a 31-year-old Tyreek Hill that maybe does/maybe doesn’t want to be traded, the ingredients are there for Waddle to get his groove back in 2025. I’m waddling back one more time, and you should too.
36. Marvin Harrison Jr. (WR18, ARI) – I still believe in the elite upside offered by Marvin Harrison Jr. and the potential to become a perennial top-five receiver. But with more games under double-digit fantasy points (nine) than over (eight), he’s lost the benefit of the doubt. As long as he remains with an ADP in the teens among receivers, Harrison’s acquisition cost is well worth it. You’d be getting MHJ at his floor, and few match his ceiling.
37. Trey McBride (TE2, ARI) – How did Trey McBride follow up his breakout 2023 campaign? By blowing past his TE7 finish to end up the TE2 behind Brock Bowers. His 111 receptions were the fourth-most of any player in the league and just one behind Bowers. Had it not been for some terrible touchdown luck, McBride could have easily finished as the top TE in 2024. Similar to the top quarterback options, McBride, Bowers, and George Kittle are virtually interchangeable from a fantasy points perspective. But with an ADP of 26 overall, I’ll probably forgo drafting McBride this season. I can’t pass up the likes of Ladd McConkey, Chase Brown, and Bucky Irving to draft a tight end.
38. Brock Bowers (TE3, LV) – Rarely do we see an uberly hyped tight end prospect meet, let alone exceed, the expectations placed on him. Brock Bowers did that rather bigly. The Raiders fed him early and often, with Bowers racking up 111 receptions, 1,194 receiving yards, and five touchdowns on 153 targets. There is some concern that Bowers will have a hard time matching his rookie production, considering all the offseason changes in Las Vegas. New (but old) head coach Pete Carroll has not traditionally targeted tight ends heavily in his offense, and with the addition of Ashton Jeanty, he could shift more towards the run game compared to last season. Bowers is truly an elite talent and should easily remain one of the top fantasy tight ends for the foreseeable future. But like McBride, I won’t be drafting him this season. An ADP around 18 overall is far too rich for my blood.
39. Tyreek Hill (WR19, MIA) – Tyreek Hill turned 31 this offseason, a number that’s seen just six receivers play in at least 10 games while still averaging over 12 points per game. Hill’s numbers dropped across the board last season, from yards per target, yards per route run, explosive play rate, to nearly every efficiency metric. You can absolutely credit some of that to not having Tua under center for much of the season, but banking on a return to the top 10 from an aging receiver whose greatest asset is his game-breaking speed is a recipe for disaster. I get it’s hard to let go of a perennial WR1 overall threat, but drafting Hill as anything more than a WR2 is buying all the risk.
Tier 5
40. Mike Evans (WR20, TB) – Mike Evans is a surefire first-ballot Hall of Famer, no question. Thanks to some Week 18 force-feeding from Baker Mayfield, Evans tied Jerry Rice’s record of 11 consecutive 1,000-yard seasons. Still, considering Evans will be 32 by Week 1 and Mayfield’s owed a hefty helping of negative regression in touchdowns, he’ll find it hard-pressed to put up another WR1 season. Evans is a solid WR2, considering he’s coming off the board in the fourth round, but I’d much rather gamble on the upside of the guys going around him like Marvin Harrison Jr and D.J. Moore.