Tier 8 (Continued)
81. Kyler Murray (QB10, ARI) – Playing in his first full season since 2020, Kyler Murray finished as a borderline QB1 on a points per game basis. I’d stop short of calling him a bust, but he certainly didn’t live up to offseason expectations, especially with the addition of rookie wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. Among quarterbacks who played in at least 10 games, Murray’s sixth-ranked 68.8% completion percentage is deceptive. When looking at his adjusted completion percentage*, the number does go up, but his rank drops all the way to 16th. He ranked 20th in yards per attempt among qualified quarterbacks, and a touchdown-to-interception ratio of 21:11 leaves much to be desired. Murray’s rushing prowess provides him with a safe floor, but his ceiling is closer to QB7/QB8 than it is to QB1/2.
*Completion Percentage adjusted for drops, spikes, throwaways, hit as thrown, and batted passes.
82. Bo Nix (QB11, DEN) – I’m not a Nix hater, I’m just not a Bo-liever. Last year’s breakout is driving up the price, and fantasy managers are buying all the risk. Nix didn’t have a 300-yard passing game until Week 11, and he only had one more after that. Nix had 10 passing touchdowns through Week 10, failing to throw a single touchdown in half of the first ten games. What kept him afloat during those lean passing games was his rushing. Nix finished inside the top ten in rushing yards for quarterbacks with 430, but not because he ran remarkably well. Nix had a yards per carry of 4.7, but that doesn’t matter when you have as many attempts as Nix did last season; He was one of five quarterbacks with at least 90. But what happens when that number goes down? The Broncos have second-round stud RJ Harvey and recent free agent signing JK Dobbins as their one-two punch. I expect the running back touches to return closer to the norm for a Sean Payton offense this season. I don’t see a world where Nix finishes inside the top five, so drafting him at QB8 is buying all the risk. Unless his passing numbers improve significantly, a drastic drop in rushing attempts could be devastating for Nix’s fantasy value in 2025.
83. Jerry Jeudy (WR39, CLE) – In the 12 games Jameis Winston started for Cleveland last season, Jerry Jeudy averaged 7.8 targets, 5.1 receptions, 79.6 receiving yards, and 15.7 yards per reception. Without Winston, Jeudy averaged 10.2 targets, 5.8 receptions, 54.8 receiving yards, and 9.4 yards per reception. Despite averaging nearly three more targets and an additional catch when Winston wasn’t on the field, Jeudy’s receiving yards dropped by about 25 yards, and his yards per reception dropped from 15.7 to 9.4. Winston’s love for the YOLO ball meshed well with Jeudy’s skillset. Unfortunately for Jeudy, Winston left for the Giants in free agency. The Browns’ quarterback room is easily one of the worst in the league, and it’ll likely be a QB carousel not conducive to fantasy production. An ADP of WR33 isn’t awful, but I’d rather take a shot on the upside on the guys going around him, like Chris Olave or Rome Odunze.
84. Joe Mixon (RB30, HOU) – This ranking of Joe Mixon takes into consideration the nagging foot injury that has had him on the non-football injury list since the start of training camp. We’ve yet to find out what the exact injury is and what sort of timetable is expected for his return. I’m assuming he misses a game or two to start the season, but if it turns out to be more, I’d drop Mixon outside the top 100. I’m likely avoiding him regardless of the injury updates. Take a chance if he falls to the seventh round or so, but I’m avoiding drafting him at his current ADP in the late 50s.
85. Brandon Aiyuk (WR40, SF) – Similar to the Joe Mixon situation, it’s unclear when we can expect to see Brandon Aiyuk back on the field. But unlike Mixon, we know Aiyuk will miss a significant portion of the beginning of the season. Week 6 has been repeately floated as Aiyuk’s expected return date, head coach Kyle Shanahan recently reiterated “…which means that could be Week 10, it means it could be Week 5, but that’s the area where I start thinking about it…” when speaking about a trio of 49ers working their way back from ACL injuries.
It’s a tricky situation when considering drafting Aiyuk. An ADP of 113 for a player of his caliber is alluring, but there’s a hidden cost you may not be considering. He’s guaranteed to miss nearly half of the fantasy football regular season, even if he returns Week 5. That’s half the season you’re down a bench spot, putting yourself at a disadvantage not only for depth, but stashing that potential breakout player we’re all chasing. Even when Aiyuk does return, he won’t be at full speed as soon as he steps on the field. The most obvious issue is that there’s a very real chance he misses even more time. A healthy Aiyuk on a potentially pass-heavy 49ers team is the stuff dreams are made of, but I’d much rather wait to attempt to trade for him closer to his return than deal with the baggage that comes with rostering him.
86. T.J. Hockenson (TE5, MIN) – Nearly two years after tearing his ACL and MCL in Week 16 of the 2023 season, T.J. Hockenson is right around the ADP I’m generally starting to consider drafting a tight end. Not considering last year’s mid-season return and working his way back to form, Hockenson was a top-five fantasy tight end in three of the previous four seasons. Jordan Addison is set to miss the first three games of the season, giving Hockenson an early-season advantage in potential targets and chemistry building with new quarterback J.J. McCarthy. Hockenson is a phenomenal option at tight end due to his reasonable cost and relatively high floor and ceiling. He’ll remind people how talented he is.
87. Cooper Kupp (WR41, SEA) – It’s hard to pass up on a fantasy football legend the likes of Cooper Kupp when you see him still hanging around in the eighth or ninth round. But let someone else draft the former Triple Crown winner. Kupp recently turned 32, no longer has offensive mastermind Sean McVay calling plays, and hasn’t played a full season since 2021. Oh, and his quarterback is no longer his breakfast buddy, Matthew Stafford. If you want to roster Kupp as a WR3, be my guest. But you’ll be passing on the upside of guys going around him, the likes of Matthew Golden and Rome Odunze.
88. Justin Fields (QB12, NYJ) – Finally free from Chicago and Pittsburgh, Justin Fields heads to …the Jets. Yes, I know, I know, it’s the Jets, but hear me out. I love the hiring of Aaron Glenn, and with him comes Tanner Engstrand, the first-time offensive coordinator who served under Ben Johnson as the Lions’ passing game coordinator for the past two seasons. Fields does have a better arm than he’s shown in the pros. He threw for 5,701 yards and 62 touchdowns in his college career. Notably, his completion percentage and QB rating have improved in every one of his first four seasons in the NFL. If Fields can become just decent enough of a passer, a top-five fantasy finish is within reach. In 1QB, I’d pair him with a Justin Herbert-type high-floor QB to offset the risk of Fields. In Superflex, Fields is my prototypical QB2 target—an ADP value with upside.
89. Trevor Lawrence (QB13, JAC) – Trevor Lawrence enters 2025 with a new head coach for the fourth time in five seasons. Thankfully, Liam Coen hails from the much-beloved, uber-productive Sean McVay coaching tree. In just one season as Tampa Bay’s offensive coordinator, Coen rejuvenated both the Bucs offense and Baker Mayfield‘s career. There was a lot to like about how Lawrence played pre-shoulder injury last year. He had the third-highest accuracy rate (83.25) and the second-highest average depth of target (9.8) among quarterbacks with at least 10 starts. Lawrence is coming off back-to-back seasons of over 4,000 passing yards, and averaged 321 rushing yards and about four rushing touchdowns in his first three seasons, adding nearly four extra points per game. Jacksonville addressed the offensive line this offseason and made a splash by trading up to draft Heisman Trophy winner WR/CB Travis Hunter. Paired with Pro Bowl sophomore wideout Brian Thomas Jr., the duo already appears to headline the best arsenal of weapons TLaw has had in his professional career. Is a QB1 overall season in his future? Likely not. But a top-10 fantasy finish is undoubtedly attainable. Maybe as early as this year.
90. Trey Benson (RB31, ARI) – Second-year back Trey Benson has an ADP around RB46 and has—stop me if you’ve heard this before— league-winning potential if he manages to get the bulk of backfield carries in Arizona. Benson matched Conner’s 4.6 yards per carry over the full season and got better as the year progressed. From Weeks 10-17, Benson bested Conner’s yards per carry, 5.7 to 4.8. Over that same period, Benson had a higher avoided tackle rate, explosive (20+ yard) run rate, and yards after contact. Granted, that was in about 1/4 of the touches, but it proves the point I’m trying to make: Benson is more than capable of producing at the highest level. I believe there’s a good chance Connor sees a drop in production and/or misses multiple games due to injury. Either could lead to a backfield takeover by Benson.
91. Sam LaPorta (TE6, DET) – I kinda think Sam LaPorta is being slept on. LaPorta was solid last season. His yards per route run were very comparable year-over-year (1.95 to 1.8), his yards per target and yards per reception went up, and he had two additional red zone targets. The problem was that his acquisition cost was way too high. He was TE2 off the board and the 33rd player overall, around or before guys like Malik Nabers, James Conner, Mike Evans, and James Cook. The emergence of Jameson Williams also led to 2 fewer targets per game and a total of 37 fewer on the season (he played in one less game, too). Sometimes, it’s just not enough volume. I don’t have an issue with LaPorta being the fourth tight end drafted. I do have an issue with where you have to draft him. A current overall ADP of 50 would require you to take him over the likes of TreVeyon Henderson, RJ Harvey, Tetairoa McMillian, and even teammate Jameson Williams. Not a chance I’d take him over a single one of the guys in that range.
92. Michael Pittman Jr. (WR42, IND) – It was revealed that Michael Pittman Jr. played with a fractured back nearly all of 2024. He didn’t look like the same guy who averaged over 98 catches, 1,053 yards, and ~5 touchdowns, finishing as WR13, WR20, and WR17 over the previous three seasons. I get why people are down on him after last year’s WR41 finish. But he wasn’t as bad as you think. Pittman led the Colts in targets for the third straight year (albeit in two more games than Josh Downs) and was the first read on 73% of his targets. He was the first read most often, sitting at 14.3%, which is good news considering that both Anthony Richardson Sr. and Daniel Jones targeted their first read over 50% of dropbacks last season. Both the Giants and Colts ranked inside the top 10 for first-read pass percentage, with Indy’s 53.5% being the third-highest rate in the league. Pittman is being drafted outside the top 100 players. That’s WR49, after last season’s faceplant finish of WR41. The hate has gone way too far. He’s quite literally being drafted under his floor.
93. Mark Andrews (TE7, BAL) – Mark Andrews struggled most of last season, but finished strong. Over the second half of 2024, Andrews had 25 catches on 33 targets for 316 yards and SIX touchdowns. His tuddy total was the second most in the league over that span, and his 9.6 yards per target and 12.6 yards per reception were both top 10 at the position. I’m still a big fan of Isaiah Likely, but he recently had surgery to repair a broken bone in his foot. He’s not sure to be ready by the start of the season, although it’s not considered a long-term issue. All things considered, I’m beginning to like Mark Andrews more and more at his ADP.
94. J.K. Dobbins (RB32, DEN) – J.K. Dobbins took the fantasy world by storm with his electric start to his Chargers career, rushing for a combined 166 yards and two touchdowns through the first two weeks of the 2024 season. Unfortunately for Dobbins, those would be the only games he’d rush for over 100 yards the entire season. It was a mirage you could see right through if you looked closely enough. Over his first four games, he had an undoubtedly unsustainable 6.1 yards per carry and 16.1% explosive run rate. He finished the season with respectable ratios: 4.64 yards per carry and a 5.1% explosive run rate, but nowhere near the elite numbers of his first two games. Dobbins signed late in free agency with the Broncos, after the draft and after drafting RJ Harvey in the second round. Sean Payton has a record of preferring to use multiple backs, and Dobbins will get a little run. But this backfield belongs to Harvey, and Dobbins is little more than a handcuff with some FLEX value. Pass.
95. Baker Mayfield (QB14, TB) – Last season’s 41 touchdown barrage by Baker Mayfield produced a career-high 7.3% touchdown rate (the number of touchdowns thrown per passing attempt) after averaging 4.5% over the previous four seasons. Just four quarterbacks have had a touchdown rate over 7% in the past five seasons (per teamrankings.com). Touchdown rate wasn’t the only stat Baker produced an outlier in last year. He also had the best competition percentage of his career in 2024 at 71.4%, nearly ten percent higher than the rate of his previous four years (61.9%). There are concerns surrounding Mayfield’s supporting cast, as well. Mike Evans is a surefire Hall of Famer, but he’ll be 32 this August. Chris Godwin‘s return to the field is up in the air after a grueling Week 7 dislocated ankle. Even when he returns, he’ll be eased into action, and a return to form is far from a guarantee. Tristan Wirfs, arguably the best LT in the league, is uncertain to be ready for the start of the season. And with Liam Coen leaving for Jacksonville, the Bucs promoted passing game coordinator Josh Grizzard to offensive coordinator. Tampa is banking on a plug-and-play OC swap, but significant question marks remain. Mayfield should end up a borderline QB1, but his ADP inside the top 10 quarterbacks is a classic overpay after a career season.
96. C.J. Stroud (QB15, HOU) – C.J. Stroud‘s sophomore step back isn’t all that surprising when you dig into the details. Stroud faced pressure on 34.8% of his drop-backs (the highest rate in the NFL) and was sacked 52 times (the second most). When given time, Stroud was just fine, with a completion percentage of 70.1% and yards per attempt of 7.3. When pressured, his completion percentage dipped to 47.6% and yards per attempt dropped a whole yard to 6.3. Thankfully, Houston revamped its line this offseason, signing a handful of veterans in OG Laken Tomlinson, OT Cam Robinson, and OT Trent Brown, trading for OG Ed Ingram, and drafting OT Aireontae Ersery in the 2nd round. The offensive line should be improved, but to what degree will determine Stroud’s true bounce-back potential. Another positive development is Houston’s acquisitions of both talent and depth at wide receiver: signing Christian Kirk and drafting Iowa State teammates Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel at 34th and 79th overall. Stroud’s being drafted way below his floor around the QB 18-20 mark. The difference is that a QB1 overall season is still in the realm of possibility for Stroud.
97. Travis Etienne Jr. (RB33, JAC) – After a top-five finish in 2023, Travis Etienne Jr. had a full-on fantasy faceplant last season. He fell to RB35 in 2024, and if it hadn’t been for his usage in the passing game, it could have been a whole lot worse. Among the 31 running backs with at least 150 carries last season, Etienne ranked 30th in yards per carry, 21st in explosive run rate, 20th in yards after contact per attempt, and 30th in percentage of team carries inside the five. I know people are excited to see what ETN can do with Liam Coen, but it feels eerily similar to the Rachaad White/Bucky Irving situation from just a season ago: an incumbent starter with pass-catching chops who is an inefficient runner is replaced by an efficient, explosive “backup” who is a capable pass catcher but has not been asked to do it at the pro level. I recognize I am extremely low on Etienne compared to the masses. But I trust my process, and I’m willing to eat crow if I wind up on the wrong side of this take.
98. Zach Charbonnet (RB34, SEA) – Zach Charbonnet holds tremendous upside if something were to happen to Kenneth Walker. What makes him one of the most valuable handcuffs in all the land is his viability as a FLEX starter even if he remains KWIII’s understudy all season. Charbs averaged 11 points per game last season, good for 29th among RBs with at least 100 carries. In the six games Walker missed last season, Charbonnet averaged 19.2 ppg, including games with point totals of 25.7 and 38.3. He’s a tremendous value coming off the board around the 116th pick.
Tier 9
99. Tucker Kraft (TE8, GB) – Tucker Kraft could be the most disrespected tight end in fantasy. Kraft quietly caught seven touchdowns last season, and it wouldn’t be a shock for him to repeat (or improve) on that number. He’s a low-risk, moderately high-reward selection with an ADP outside the top 100 players.
100. Kyle Pitts Sr. (TE9, ATL) – A few fun facts about Kyle Pitts:
-He’s never had a yards per reception under 12.
-He’s finished outside of the Top 15 tight ends just once, in his sophomore season, when he played just 10 games.
-Last season, he ranked 13th at the position in receiving yardage (602) and touchdowns (4).
-He was tied for the 5th most targets over 20+ yards among tight ends.
There have also been trade rumors swirling around Pitts this offseason, but on the bright side, a trade to the right situation could increase his value. All in all, there is a wide range of outcomes for Kyle Pitts this season, but in that range is a top-five finish. With the state of the tight end position, he won’t have to do much to finish as a TE1. Being drafted among backup running backs and 3rd string wide receivers, Pitts is easily worth the dart throw at his next-to-nothing cost.