Tier 10 (Continued)
126. Braelon Allen (RB42, NYJ) – As I mentioned in Breece Hall‘s blurb, we’ve yet to see him back to the pre-injury form. The drum beats continue to get louder, suggesting a Lions-esque committee could be in store for the Jets with new offensive coordinator Tanner Engstrand following Aaron Glenn from Detroit. We’ve seen flashes of elite upside from Braelon Allen. If Hall were to go down with an injury, Allen has RB1 upside.
127. Jayden Higgins (WR51, HOU) – C.J. Stroud‘s supporting cast will look much different this year after a serious step back from his 2023 Rookie Of The Year season. Stefon Diggs signed with New England in free agency. Tank Dell is likely out for the entire 2025 season thanks to a gruesome Week 14 knee injury. The duo averaged a total of 13.4 targets between them, so there are plenty of vacated targets to go around for the new look Texans WR corps. Jayden Higgins is talented enough to make a push for second billing in Houston’s target hierarchy, but he’ll battle with veteran Christian Kirk for it. Unless Higgins erupts over the final few weeks of the preseason, he’s more of a draft-and-stash than a potential Week 1 fantasy starter.
128. Dallas Goedert (TE15, PHI) – Dallas Goedert had the worst fantasy finish of his career in 2024, but there aren’t any noteworthy or surprising statistics that point to a production cliff. Goedert played in only 10 games, the fewest of his career. However, compared to the prior five seasons, Goedert’s stats either exceeded or remained virtually unchanged in 2024. His targets per game went down a whopping — checks notes — half a target. His yards per route run last season ranked 17th. Not at the tight end position, among all players. Among tight ends? Goedert’s YPRR ranked 2nd to George Kittle (2.5 to 2.4). It’s pretty straightforward if you examine the numbers and apply common sense. Goedert is virtually being drafted at his floor.
129. Jared Goff (QB21, DET) – Jared Goff‘s floor is a lot lower than most want to admit. It’s not just the fact that the Lions lost Ben Johnson as a play caller, it’s the fact that their offensive line underwent a significant overhaul this offseason with the retirement of C Frank Ragnow and the loss of OG Kevin Zeitler in free agency. The Lions offense isn’t going to become one of the league’s worst, and Goff (hopefully) won’t spontaneously combust, but with an ADP of QB10, he won’t wind up on any of my fantasy teams in either 1QB or Superflex.
130. Jack Bech (WR52, LV) – The Raiders’ weak WR corps consists of Jakobi Meyers, and that’s about it. Rookie receiver Jack Bech has impressed in training camp and has a chance to see substantial volume from day one. Brock Bowers can’t catch all the passes. Right?
131. Jaylen Warren (RB43, PIT) – Just as Jaylen Warren truthers thought he’d get his time to shine with Najee Harris moving on to LA, the Steelers drafted a running back in the third round. Pittsburgh added Kaleb Johnson, a versatile back coming off a 1,537 rushing yard and 21 touchdown season. Knowing awful Arthur Smith’s disregard for common sense, the season likely starts as a true 50/50 committee. But I expect Johnson to become the lead back before long. Despite what you may hear elsewhere, Jaylen Warren is Just A Guy.
132. Rashid Shaheed (WR53, NO) – Rashid Shaheed had a blistering start to the 2024 season, scoring double-digit fantasy points in four of six games and catching a touchdown in three. Sadly, the breakout was snipped short in Week 6 due to a knee injury that ended his season. Shaheed’s involvement in the offense was on the rise, averaging nine targets from Weeks 4-6 after averaging just under five in the first three. There is concern with the Saints’ Quarterback situation. Shaheed would benefit most from Shough’s big arm ability, but he did see seven targets in the lone game he and Rattler played together. Shaheed should see enough volume as the set starter across from Chris Olave to return value on his WR57 ADP. The Saints’ suspect defense should lead to the offense having to air it out plenty as they play from behind. He’s a threat to take it to the house every time he touches the ball, and garbage time points count just the same in fantasy.
Tier 11
133. Luther Burden III (WR54, CHI) – I like Luther Burden III’s dynasty prospects, but he’ll have a hard time carving out a significant role among the crowded group of pass catchers in Chicago. He’s a draft-and-stash player for now.
134. Dylan Sampson (RB44, CLE) – Similar to the Rashee Rice/Xavier Worthy discussion, so much of Dylan Sampson‘s fantasy value relies on what becomes of Quinshon Judkins‘ potential/inevitable suspension. If Judkins misses the entire season, Sampson is in line for a heavy workload and immediately becomes a borderline RB2. But if Judkins plays in 2025, his return would relegate Sampson back to handcuff territory.
135. Michael Penix Jr. (QB22, ATL) – Michael Penix Jr. showed some growth over his first three starts in the Falcons’ final three games. He did throw an interception in each game and totalled just three touchdowns, but his yardage totals and touchdowns increased with each game. He’s a wild card from a fantasy perspective with a wide range of outcomes. Penix finds himself in a great situation with a plethora of weapons, but an older prospect with an injury history does have a cloud of risk following him. If you draft him in 1QB leagues, be sure to pair him with a safe, high-floor option like Geno Smith in case Penix flops.
136. Ricky Pearsall (WR55, SF) – With the Jauan Jennings contract situation and Brandon Aiyuk set to miss the start of the season, Ricky Pearsall could start the season as the WR1 for the Niners. He finished his rookie season strong and could emerge as a WR2 if he ends up as a top option for Brock Purdy.
137. Jaylin Noel (WR56, HOU) – The second of two Iowa State wide receivers drafted by the Texans, I’ve found Jaylin Noel making his way on more and more of my teams. He’ll have every opportunity to earn touches in a wide-open receiver room, and his cost is zero.
138. Christian Kirk (WR57, HOU) – It’s been reported by Texans beat reporter DJ Bien-Aime that early in training camp, Kirk has seemingly developed into a safety blanket for C.J. Stroud. Kirk produced when he was on the field, averaging 14 yards per catch and 1.84 yards per route run in 2024, just behind former Jacksonville teammate and stud receiver Brian Thomas Jr. The last time Kirk played a full season, he finished as WR11 in total points. He’s not going to finish anywhere near that this season, but especially in PPR formats, he’s a solid WR3 being drafted outside the top 50 receivers. Draft Kirk instead of having to pay up to grab him off waivers a week or two into the season.
139. Jake Ferguson (TE16, DAL) – Jake Ferguson is the fantasy football equivalent of a slice of bread and a glass of water. He has his role. He’ll get the job done. But you’re not excited about starting him.
140. Cameron Ward (QB23, TEN) – The first overall pick in this year’s draft is not someone I’m interested in for fantasy purposes. I’m not drafting Cam Ward in 1QB leagues, and he’s a backup at best in Superflex.
141. Darnell Mooney (WR58, ATL) – At WR46, there’s little risk in drafting Darnell Mooney. He’s a solid WR3 who can win you weeks. If the Falcons’ offense rises with Penix under center, he could easily jump into the top 24. He could miss a game or two at the start of the season due to a shoulder injury sustained in practice, but it’s not considered long-term.
142. Jakobi Meyers (WR59, LV) – Jakobi Meyers is a McDouble: high floor, very low ceiling. He won’t win you any weeks by himself, but he’s a fair PPR bench option and a potential FLEX fill-in during bye weeks.
143. Rhamondre Stevenson (RB45, NE) – I was high on Rhamondre Stevenson over the past few seasons, and he’s produced solid numbers. But his inability to hold onto the ball (seven fumbles last season) and inefficiency led the Patriots to draft TreVeyon Henderson in the second round of this year’s draft. Stevenson likely starts the season in a timeshare with Henderson, but the rookie is talented enough to completely take over the backfield. It may be over for Rhamondre.
144. Isaiah Likely (TE17, BAL) – One of my flag plants this season, a fractured foot and subsequent surgery have put the kabosh on Isaiah Likely‘s early-season potential. He’s not expected to miss a ton of time, but he’ll have to work back to game speed before producing on the field. If you have the room, he’s worth a draft-and-stash, but don’t let him float on waivers too long. Likely hasn’t lost his ceiling.
145. Jaydon Blue (RB46, DAL) – Reports of the team’s unhappiness with Jaydon Blue‘s work ethic appear to be entirely fabricated. He’s impressive in training camp and a name to keep an eye on in case he can take over a wide-open Cowboys backfield.
146. Javonte Williams (RB47, DAL) – The favorite to start the season as the Cowboys’ starting running back, Javonte Williams, is another in a long line of “what-ifs” whose ceiling is likely never reached due to injury. There’s a snowball’s chance he could have a career resurgence in Dallas, but don’t bet on it.
147. Bryce Young (QB24, CAR) – He’s neither a target nor a player I’m explicitly avoiding. But for me, the limited upside isn’t worth the headache of figuring out if the real Bryce Young is his pre-benching or post-benching form from 2024.
148. Tyjae Spears (RB48, TEN) – Tyjae Spears is once again expected to miss significant time due to injury, this time a high ankle sprain. He won’t play the rest of the preseason at a minimum, and likely more. He’s an unreliable handcuff with a smidge of upside.
149. Keon Coleman (WR60, BUF) – Keon Coleman is my favorite kind of post-hype sleeper. Those who were in on him last season expected him to slide right in and become the next Stefon Diggs, and because that didn’t happen, they’ve written him off. No, Coleman wasn’t the most targeted receiver on the Bills. Dalton Kincaid had more targets, too. But he tied for the team lead in receiving touchdowns (4) despite playing in just 13 games. He was also Mr. Hailee Steinfeld’s go-to guy downfield. Coleman led the Bills in deep targets (18) and more than doubled the average depth of the target of Kincaid and nearly tripled that of Khalil Shakir.
150. Wan’Dale Robinson (WR61, NYG) – Wan’Dale Robinson quietly had 140 targets last season and was the only Giant not named Nabers to see more than 70 targets. He was one of just 11 receivers with 90+ catches and over 100 targets, but the only one to finish outside of the top 16 at the position. Robinson’s WR36 finish certainly wasn’t helped by the abysmally poor offense he was on, as well as the 78.9% catchable target rate he received, which ranked 24th among qualifying WRs. I don’t envision Robinson seeing another 140 targets, but another season of playing second fiddle to Nabers should make 100+ easily attainable. That alone makes him a viable option for your FLEX spot or a bye week fill-in, but mostly if you’re playing in a PPR format.