Game Info
Kickoff: Sunday, December 10th, 2023, 4:25 PM ET
Location: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, Missouri
Betting Odds: KC -2.5, 47.5 o/u total via oddhsark.com
Network: CBS
Writer: Dustin Ludke (@TheDunit13 on Twitter)
Buffalo Bills
Quarterback
Josh Allen (Start, QB1)
Does Josh Allen lead the league in interceptions? Yes. Does he also lead the league in touchdowns? Yes. So unless you are in a league that has heavy negative points for interceptions, Josh Allen is still a QB1. He has multiple passing touchdowns in eight of his twelve games this year and has added a rushing touchdown in eight games as well. He has been outside the QB1 range only three times this season which is one of the best in that mertics. Compared to his counterpart on the other side of the field who has six games outside of the QB1 range. Fire up Josh Allen and be happy.
Running Backs
James Cook (Start, RB2), Latavius Murray (Sit)
The Bills run game has picked up steam since the changing of offensive coordinators. James Cook has seen over 15 carries in the past two games. He hasn’t gotten into the end zone which is limiting his fantasy upside. The Chiefs are middle of the road against the run so Cook should have the space and room to get yards. With the goalline work not being there He can only be an RB2. The goalline work goes to Latavius Murray who is just a flex play who could lose that role coming out of the bye. Sit Murray this week.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
Stefon Diggs (Start, WR2), Gabe Davis (Start, WR3), Khalil Shakir (Start, Flex), Dalton Kincaid (Start, TE2)
Stefon Diggs has proven he is still a top wide receiver in the league. As much as the media wants to portray him as a diva who wants out of Buffalo Diggs continues to not only shoot them down in press conferences but also show up on the field. He is still playing on over 90% of the team’s snaps. He is still running a ton of routes and is getting targets. This week however might be more difficult. Facing the Chiefs Diggs will have to face some tough coverage. In two and three wide sets he will see Trent McDuffie who rates as the 18th best cover corner. It’s one of the tougher matchups that Diggs has seen this year. I still like Diggs to get his targets and have the opportunities. His production might just dip putting him in the WR2 range.
Gabe Davis will have to step up and fill the gap for the loss of Diggs’s production. He has the matchup to do it. He will see L’Jarius Sneed in coverage who currently ranks as the 77th best corner. On top of that the safeties for KC don’t rate very high leaving some big down-the-field plays open for Davis. He has reverted to a boom or bust type player but I think this week can be a boom. Start him as a solid WR3 with a ton of upside.
Khalil Skair and Dalton Kincaid have stepped up in the past four weeks and have provided more depth in the passing game. They both can benefit from good matchups and be solid fantasy options. Shakir should be a solid flex. He is a new wrinkle the Chiefs have not seen yet from the Bills. Kincaid should be started but expectations should be down. The Chiefs are giving up the 5th fewest points to tight ends and there is a chance Dawson Knox will come back this week. Kincaid should still be able to get into he TE2 range.
Kansas City Chiefs
Quarterbacks
Patrick Mahomes (Start, QB1)
Yes, the Buffalo Bills have a good secondary. It’s banged up and missing some of its stars, but even if it was 100% healthy you are starting Patrick Mahomes. While he has been just okay as of late, he has the potential to go off and put up 30+ points any given week. With the Chiefs going against a team that pushed them in the playoffs and a perennial contender for the AFC crown, I expect Mahomes to do well. Coming off a tough loss against the Green Bay Packers Mahomes and the Chiefs might be extra motivated to make a statement. Mahomes is a solid QB1.
Running Backs
Isiah Pacheco (Start, RB1), Jerick McKinnon (Sit)
I think Isiah Pacheco is past due for a cool nickname. I have no idea what it should, be so if you have one drop it in the comments. He has been stellar this season and is currently RB10 on the year. He is on a two-game scoring streak and is averaging 4.43 yards per carry. He gets to face a middle-of-the-road Bills run defense which provides a good matchup. With Jerick McKinnon dealing with a groin injury, Pacheco has gotten some passing work which gives him an extra boost in fantasy. Clyde Edwards-Helaire isn’t a threat to take carries unless it’s a blowout, which this game doesn’t look to be. Start Pacheco as a solid RB1.
Wide Receivers/ Tight Ends
Rashee Rice (Start, Flex) Kadarius Toney (Sit), Marquez Valdes-Scantling (Sit), Skyy Moore (Sit), Travis Kelce (Start, TE1)
The Chiefs may have found their new leading receiver in rookie Rashee Rice. He is currently playing on over 60% of the team’s snaps and has seen 19 targets in the past two weeks. He has five touchdowns on the year. The Chiefs will have to find creative ways to get him the ball against a Bills defense that is giving up the 9th fewest points to wide receivers. As the top receiver, he will probably draw Rasul Douglas, who rates as the 4th best cover corner. When Rice is in the slot, which he does 53% of the time, he will see Taron Johnson, who rates as the 24th-best corner. It’s tough matchups across the board. However, given his involvement in the Chiefs’ offense, he should be a solid flex play this week.
The rest of the receivers are hit or miss. Kadarius Toney is barely playing even when he is healthy. Marquez Valdes-Scantling is getting one or two deep shots a game but hasn’t connected on them. Skyy Moore is running a on of cardio during games. Justin Watson pops up every few weeks with a touchdown but that’s it. You can’t trust any of them, especially against a good secondary.
Travis Kelce is an unquestionable hit. You are going to start him. I don’t think there is anything anyone could say to get you to not start your first-round pick. Despite having down games to his standards, he is still a solid TE1. Even with the Bills giving up the 11th fewest points to tight ends, Kelce is a must-start.