Game Info
Kickoff: Sunday, December 10th, 1:00 PM ET
Location: Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta Georgia
Betting Odds: ATL -2.5, 39 total via Odds Shark
Expected Weather: N/A (Dome)
Network: CBS
Writer: Justin Mello (@JustinMelloNE on Twitter)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Quarterbacks
Baker Mayfield (Start, QB2)
I’ve personally been impressed with Baker Mayfield this season compared to what I expected from him, but that still doesn’t mean he’s anywhere close to the upper echelon of quarterbacks. He’s thrown for over 300 yards just once this season, but he’s also thrown for under 200 yards just twice (and one of those two games he threw for 199). He’s thrown more than two touchdown passes just once this season, but he’s also had at least one in eleven of twelve games. In other words, he has been a consistent QB2 all season. I expect more of the same in Week 14 when he plays a middle-of-the-pack Atlanta Falcons pass defense which has allowed the tenth most fantasy points to quarterbacks this season and is ranked 20th in coverage by PFF.
Running Backs
Rachaad White (Start, RB2)
It has been a surprisingly elite season for Rachaad White, who already has 1,029 all-purpose yards and six touchdowns. Tampa Bay’s new workhorse has been a blessing for many fantasy teams, but he has a tough test on Sunday against Atlanta. The Falcons have allowed the fewest fantasy points to opposing running backs this season and are the highest-graded run defense by PFF. When the Buccaneers hosted the Falcons in Week 7, White was held to just 34 yards on 13 carries. It’ll likely be a similarly difficult game on the ground, but the good news is that White thrives off his high usage and work in the passing game which should mitigate some of the concerns that the stout defensive front in Atlanta presents. The matchup holds White just outside of RB1 territory, but he is a high-end RB2.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
Mike Evans (Start, WR1), Chris Godwin (Start, Flex), Trey Palmer (Sit), Cade Otten (Start, TE2)
Racking up over 1,000 yards for his tenth consecutive season, Mike Evans has proven that he is still elite. Despite being second on the team in wide receiver snaps, he leads the Buccaneers in targets per route run, targets, receptions, receiving yards, and touchdowns. He’s been a stud for fantasy teams just as he has been on the real-life gridiron, and there is little reason to believe Week 14 is any different. PFF ranks Evans’s matchup advantage as the 10th-best of all receivers this week. A.J. Terrell is a very respectable, albeit inconsistent, outside cornerback for the Falcons, but their other perimeter corner is Jeff Okudah, who has struggled mightily this season, as he has throughout his whole career, quite frankly. Okudah is PFF’s 168th-ranked cornerback out of 211. If Evans draws frequent coverage from Okudah, which he likely will, the veteran receiver could expose this Atlanta defense just as he did to the Panthers last week. Evans is a low-end WR1 with boom potential.
Unlike his counterpart, Chris Godwin has been somewhat of a disappointment this year. He’s played more than any other Tampa receiver this season, but you wouldn’t know that by looking at his stats. While the matchup against the Falcons is overall a solid one for the Buccaneer passing attack, Godwin isn’t one of the main beneficiaries. He should face coverage from Dee Alford in the slot more often than not, and that is a below-average advantage for Godwin, per PFF. The Buccaneers will likely be better off trying to expose other matchups which is a less-than-promising sign for Godwin. On the contrary, he did see a season-high twelve targets in Week 7 when these two teams last faced off. That provides enough promise to keep Godwin in the flex conversation.
Trey Palmer has emerged as the clear WR3 in Tampa, but he doesn’t get nearly enough usage to be in starting consideration for fantasy purposes. He should remain on the bench if you have him on your squad. At tight end, Cade Otton has felt like a forgotten man in this offense lately. He’s only averaged 2.5 targets per game over the last four weeks, but Week 14 does provide some promise. The Falcons have allowed the fifth most fantasy points to opposing tight ends this season. He’s certainly not a TE1, but there aren’t many great options at the tight end position if you’re in a 2 TE league. Otton has enough upside to be a TE2.
Atlanta Falcons
Quarterback
Desmond Ridder (Start, QB2)
I’ll be blunt. I don’t think Desmond Ridder is very good at football (at least compared to other starting NFL quarterbacks). He has an ugly 8:8 touchdown to interception ratio on the year and hasn’t thrown for over 170 yards since Week 7 when he threw for 250. What inadequate secondary let Desmond Ridder hang 250 yards on them? None other than the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The Bucs have allowed the sixth most fantasy points to opposing QBs this season and have the fifth lowest pass coverage grade by PFF. Ridder may not be Tom Brady, but the matchup is favorable enough to make him a decent QB2 option.
Running Backs
Bijan Robinson (Start, RB1), Tyler Allgeier (Sit)
Rookie phenom Bijan Robinson heads into Week 14 in a great spot. He has clearly established himself as the lead back while playing at least 60% of offensive snaps in each of his last five games. The fantasy community seems to unanimously agree that his usage still isn’t enough, much to the dismay of Arthur Smith, but Robinson has made the most out of his touches nonetheless. The Buccaneers have the third-worst run defense in the league according to PFF, so this is just about as good of an opportunity as Robinson should get. Expect him to be heavily utilized and mightily efficient in a game where the Falcons may try to run all over their divisional opponent. Unless he wakes up feeling ill again like he did the last time these two teams met, Robinson is a safe RB1.
Although Tyler Allgeier has been a relatively big part of the offense this season, his usage has materially declined and he hasn’t been efficient enough to compensate for that (just 3.4 yards per carry). He can’t be trusted in your starting lineup.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
Drake London (Start, WR2), Van Jefferson (Sit), Kyle Pitts (Start, TE2), Jonnu Smith (Sit)
Second-year receiver Drake London has been just about as unpredictable as Antonio Brown’s tweets this season. He’s flashed the talent that made him a Top 10 pick but has struggled to consistently produce in an offense that doesn’t throw the ball all that often or effectively. The matchup is mouthwatering though. The Buccaneers have allowed the fifth most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers this season. London also has the sixth-best matchup advantage of all wide receivers in Week 14 according to PFF. Neither Carlton Davis III nor Zyon McCollum has been very good in coverage this season, and London has the chance to take advantage of that while working from outside the numbers. History isn’t on his side, but the matchup alone is enough for me to take the chance on him as a WR2. No other Atlanta receiver is utilized even close to enough to make them a legitimate starting option.
Speaking of unpredictability, the Falcons tight end room has been a mess. Kyle Pitts has (yet again) been a massive letdown, and Jonnu Smith has unlocked the Tennessee version himself in small and short spurts. Neither has been a consistent fantasy asset though. Pitts has out-snapped Smith in three straight games, so he is probably the better bet if you’re starting one. The Buccaneers have a weak secondary, but they’ve been decent against tight ends. Pitts is simply a dart throw TE2 at a position that isn’t very deep in the world of fantasy football.