Game Info
Kickoff: Monday, Dec 11, 8:15 pm EST
Location: MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ
Betting Odds: GB -6.5 O/U 37 Total via PFF.com
Network: CBS
Writer: Matt Prendergast (@amazingmattyp on X/Twitter)
Green Bay Packers
Quarterback
Jordan Love (Start, QB1)
No point in trying to swim against the tide, Jordan Love is on a run here, and there’s no sense in resisting the wave. Love has been playing great football this past month, and in doing so has taken out division leaders in consecutive weeks. During the last three, he’s put an average of 23.72 points into your fantasy pocket (per Sleeper league settings aligned with our system), and hopefully, he wasn’t sitting on your bench for most of those. It’s a much better matchup this week than the last two, and even if he’s missing his now-primary-target Christian Watson, it shouldn’t matter; Love has shown a willingness and capacity to find the open options available in a manner that he just couldn’t the first two months of the year.
Running Backs
Aaron Jones (Start, Flex), AJ Dillon (Start, Flex/RB2*)
We begin with a conundrum – is Aaron Jones going to be ready to go this week after missing the past two weeks with an MCL sprain? And even if he is, do we trust him? As much as I love the guy, the straight facts are that he’s been playing hurt all year, has two games in the seven he’s played where his all-purpose yards eclipsed 70 total yards, and he’s seen the end zone twice. BUT. The Giants are allowing a second-in-the-league high 4.8 yards per carry, and 136 yards per game on average. It’s a choice matchup for the Packers running game, so if he’s active, you have to find a spot for him – but the flex spot is your safe haven for him. To that point, if Jones goes this week, we lose value for AJ Dillon, who is coming off two strong outings against two league leaders – Dillon rolled up 73 yards on the ground (plus a 14-yard reception) against the Chiefs, and had a combined 81 yards the week previous against the Lions. If Jones is out again this week, I push Dillon to an RB2 without a doubt in a solid matchup – unfortunately, if both guys are going, then both are flex options at best.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
Christian Watson (Sit), Jayden Reed (Start, WR2), Romeo Doubs (Start, WR3), Dontayvion Wicks (Start, Flex), Tucker Kraft/Ben Sims (Sit)
So there’s a LOT of stipulations here, and it’s all revolving around Christian Watson and his perpetually faulty hamstring. Here’s the deal – Green Bay has shown a policy of holding out guys until they are actually ready to go, and Watson is the prime example of that in action. So take this section with the following in mind: IF Watson is active, he’s a must-go at a WR2 level. The past two weeks showed Matt LaFleur is committed to Watson as the central weapon in the passing game, he’s seen the endzone in the past three games and has led the team in targets during that timeframe with 20. And again IF he’s playing, bump everyone else on this squad down a notch. I’m going to go with my instinct that he’ll sit out this week, with the Giants matchup already favorable with or without him, and look for Jayden Reed to be the primary beneficiary of his absence in the game plan. While he’s had a couple of less-than-stellar fantasy performances the past two weeks, Reed is still an explosive element they are finding ways to implement, second on the team in targets (for both the previous three-game stretch, and the season overall). Romeo Doubs had a huge impact in that Chiefs’ victory, remains Love’s emergency policy when they absolutely need something to happen, and is a weekly solid flex play – again, if Watson is out, look for an increase in his involvement and success. Should Dontayvion Wicks be pressed into true WR3 duty for Green Bay this week, and you’re short on healthy receivers, he’s most likely on your waiver wire and might be worth a go in a flex if you have moderate expectations. Wicks has averaged 3.25 receptions and 58.5 yards per game over the last month in limited duty. Roll the dice if you like a risk/reward proposition AND Green Bay hasn’t designed a bionic hamstring for Watson this week. Tucker Kraft contributed his season-high 37 yards on 3 for 6 receiving against the Chiefs – he’s a young guy, still developing, and filling in for the injured starter. Can’t trust it. Ben Sims accomplished a rare double-feat last week when he a) scored a touchdown, and b) simultaneously made people aware he exists.
New York Football Giants
Quarterbacks
Tommy DeVito (Sit)
The Green Bay Packers’ defense held Patrick Mahomes to 210 passing yards, one touchdown, and one interception. On a related note, Tommy DeVito‘s mom washes his underwear, which will come in handy after this week. AYYYYE, I’m tellin’ jokes over heah! Anyway, in a horrific fantasy year for people who prefer their quarterbacks not getting their junk all wrecked, DeVito is very much a free-agent rookie who wasn’t supposed to see the field this year. He’s not terrible, necessarily, it’s just that we shouldn’t even know who he is, and Brian Daboll certainly didn’t plan for this. Hell, it didn’t seem like Daboll planned for Daniel Jones this year for that matter. Anywho, DeVito’s best outing thus far was a 246 yard/3 touchdown performance against the Commanders three weeks back. Please note the Commanders are dead last in the league in passing yards allowed (3458, a solid 300 more than the next closest Chargers!) AND passing touchdowns allowed (30!). Conversely, the Packers are tenth in yards allowed, and seventh in touchdowns allowed to receivers. This is a bad matchup for the youngster, and even if you have him rostered (which begs the question: why?), he stays on your bench, where in a just society, he’d have been allowed to stay for this year in the real world too.
Running Backs
Saquon Barkley (Start, RB2), Matt Breida (Sit)
Let’s cut to the bone here: you won’t sit Saquon regardless of any statistical trends or output – he’s legitimately the Giants’ only real weapon with any consistency. Would it be cool if he had more than three touchdowns this year? It sure would. Would it be nice if he didn’t panic his fantasy believers by putting a sad 46 yards up against the waining Patriots? That would have been cool too! But let’s remember he’s on a terrible team and playing with a kid from the corner deli at quarterback, so let’s cut him some slack. Look instead to Isiah Pacheco’s 110 yards last week, or the Monty/Gibbs combo of 135 yards the week before for your tip here: the Packers can be run on, and if the Giants have any shot at competing here, they will need to lean on Saquon, and how. Composing this article made me aware that Matt Breida still collects checks from a team, and good for him!
Wide Receivers/ Tight Ends
Jalin Hyatt (Sit), Wan’dale Robinson (Sit), Darius Slayton (Sit), Sterling Shepard (Sit) Daniel Bellinger (Sit) Darren Waller? (Sit)
The season leader for targets on the New York Giants is Darius Slayton, who has been aimed at (mostly) a spectacular 53 times this season. For comparison, Demario Douglas of the New England Hapless has 55 to lead his squad, and then Rashee Rice leads the Chiefs with 65. In comparison, those two guys are rookies who didn’t even get very involved for the first month of the year. Amari Cooper has 91 targets for the love of god, and he’s worked with about a dozen dudes this year throwing him balls, and they were all questionable. Coming in second is Wan’Dale Robinson with 45, and then Jalin Hyatt with 28. Over the past three games, the haunted memory of Sterling Shepard vaulted into the third spot with a whopping ten (rest assured, he only caught three of them). In that NE game, Jalin Hyatt led the team with six, and cranked out a remarkable 109 yards – that’s the third time all season he’s gotten over twenty yards in a game though (it happens roughly every four weeks, so he’s good to go for Week 18 if you are into long-term planning). Everybody loves the idea of Wan’Dale Robinson breaking through some time, except for Wan’Dale himself, who has broken past fifty yards exactly once this year, and visited the endzone an equally impressive ‘also once’, and has since shown an aversion to success that flows through this squad like so much Bud Light in the veins of the stadium attendees. Is Victor Cruz still here? I saw him on a commercial last week, so he might as well be since he’s clearly open. The issue here isn’t necessarily raw talent, or even developed talent, it’s just a bad team, with an undeveloped backup quarterback, with a plethora of guys that, fantasy-wise, perform about the same, and always have. Nobody stands out, nobody is consistent, and most critically, NOBODY SCORES TOUCHDOWNS. Betwixt their top 3 here, there’s a season total of two. TWO. I wouldn’t play any of them, for any reason. Daniel Bellinger also doesn’t score touchdowns, and hasn’t broken fifty yards in the month he’s taken over from Darren Waller. But is there hope on the horizon? Waller comes off IR this week, and should he be active, he can…well, I don’t know, do something? After a month on the shelf, and with DeVito at the helm, I wouldn’t trust him on his first week back, against this defense, and on this team. Maybe in a desperation heave.