Game Info
Kickoff:Monday, December 11th, 2023, 7:15p PM EST
Location: Hard Rock Stadium, Opa Locka, Florida
Betting Odds: MIa -13 47 O/U total via oddshark.com
Network: ESPN, ESPN2
Writer: Dustin Ludke (@TheDunit13 on Twitter)
Tennessee Titans
Quarterback
Will Levis (Sit, QB2)
Where did the quarterback who threw for 238 yards and four massive touchdowns back in Week 8 go? Will Levis has not been the same since. Over the last five games he only has three touchdowns and only twice has gone over 200 yards passing. He also has two interceptions and two lost fumbles. He gets a chance to change that this week against a Miami Dolphins team that is giving up the 11th most fantasy points to quarterbacks and a team that can score a ton of points very quickly. It’s a risky decision to start Levis, given he doesn’t have a great track record, but matchup and game script say yes. I’m going to play it safe and say sit him this week even if he is in the QB2 range.
Running Backs
Derrick Henry (Start, Flex), Tyjae Spears (Start, Flex)
Derrick Henry left the Week 13 game and is questionable for this week’s game. Surprisingly he is not in the concussion protocol so it looks likely they will put him out there. The Titans aren’t playing for much since they are out of the playoffs so they may just stick with the veteran rather than switching it up and going to the rookie Tyjae Spears. The Dolphins are giving up the 11th fewest points to running backs so it’s a rougher matchup for the duo than you want to see. Henry is still the King. His yards-per-carry average is still a solid 4.3, and he has eight touchdowns already on the season. His yardage has dipped but he is still a solid back and this week should be a solid Flex play. Spears might be the better back this week considering he is more involved in the passing game. His lack of scoring concerns me so it probably keeps him in the Flex range as well.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
DeAndre Hopkins (Start, WR3), Treylon Burks (Sit), Nick Westbrook-Ikhine (Sit), Kyle Phillips (Sit, Flex), Chigoziem Okonkwo (Sit, TE2)
He might be 31 years old but DeAndre Hopkins is still an elite-level wide receiver. The quarterback play has kept some of his weeks down but he has the potential every week to be a top three at the position. This week might be one of those down weeks. The Dolphins have a great corner in Jalen Ramsey who is rated as the 8th best corner by PFF.com. Combine that with rough quarterback play, I expect Hopkins to be in the WR3 range.
The other wide receivers on the team are… well… umm…. how do I put it nicely? Not that great. Nick Westbrook-Ikhine and Kyle Phillips are the only ones with 5 targets in a game since Levis took over and it has only happened three times. One of them will step up because they will be on Xavien Howard who rates as the 93rd best corner. That could end up being Chris Moore who played the most snaps last week. He only got one target. It’s just a mess across the board. Sit them all
Chig Okonkwo at tight end is an interesting play for fantasy. The Dolphins are giving up the 18th fewest points to tight ends. He has seen 11 targets in the past two games and has been right on the cusp of TE1. The issue this week is Dolphins’ safety Jevon Holland who rates as the best cover safety. Across the board, the Dolphins have good cover guys at safety and linebacker. So ultimately, I would sit Chig this week.
Miami Dolphins
Quarterback
Tua Tagovailoa (Start, QB1)
Tua Tagovailoa is in consideration for league MVP. He has five games over 300 yards passing and seven multi-touchdown games. He will continue his MVP campaign against the Titans who are middle of the road in terms of giving up points to the quarterback position. If you waited in your fantasy draft you are being rewarded. He is a sure-fire QB1 this week.
Running Backs
Raheem Mostert (Start, RB2), De’Von Achane (Start, Flex ), Jeff Wilson Jr. (Sit)
It looks like De’Von Achane is fully back from the knee injury that sidelined him for a few weeks. He looked electric in Week 13 scoring two touchdowns. That makes Jeff Wilson Jr not startable. Sit him this week. The question will be what does the workload look like between Achane and Raheem Mostert? The Titans are giving up the 12th fewest points to the running back position. I don’t think the Titans will be able to keep pace on the scoreboard with the Dolphins so that should lean more towards Mostert. Achane can score on any play with his speed and burst and you want that in your lineup. He should be a solid Flex play this week. I think Mostert will get more carries, so he should be a solid RB2.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
Tyreek Hill (Start, WR1), Jaylen Waddle (Start, WR1), Everyone Else (Sit)
This is the simplest section to write. There are two names and that is it for the Dolphins. Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. Surprisingly the Titans are giving up the 9th most points to wide receivers. The reason it is not the most is because of safety Amani Hooker who rates as the 36th best cover safety. The corners for the Titans are Kristian Fulton and Sean Murphy-Bunting. They rank as the 108th and 75th cover corners respectively. My prediction is they will shade Hooker over to help on the deep ball that has become the weekly highlight for Tyreek Hill. That should open room and better matchups for Waddle. The other question is what will the passing volume be. If the Titans can’t keep the game close do the Dolphins switch to a more run-first game plan? I still think Both wide receivers should be WR1s this week.
Other than that you are sitting all other Dolphins pass catchers. They don’t get enough targets to be fantasy-relevant.