Game Info
Kickoff: Sunday, December 10th, 4:05 PM ET
Location: Allegiant Stadium, Paradise, NV
Betting Odds: LV +3, 40.5 total via PFF.com
Network: FOX
Writer: Chris Sanzo (@Doombot12_FF on Twitter/X)
Minnesota Vikings
Quarterback
Joshua Dobbs (Start, QB2)
Joshua Dobbs is facing a Raiders defense that is ranked in the top half of the league against QBs, but it has not been an impressive run. Half of their games are against QBs who are unlikely to be starters next year and the other half are mostly 20+ point games. While I do have him ranked as a QB2 this week, that is a projection based on a median outcome model. I am willing to take on the risk knowing that a Top 5 finish is possible. Especially when looking at play-in games this week for the fantasy playoffs, I want to take the big swing if it’s a close race. In superflex leagues, you’re likely not sitting him unless you have an elite top pairing. His high variable performance is perfect for teams with a high-floor QB1.
Running Backs
Alexander Mattison (Sit), Ty Chandler (Sit)
The matchup would imply one if not both of Minnesota’s top backs should produce and surely at least one is a start. The problem is, that’s been the case the previous two games as well, and yet Alexander Mattison hasn’t managed a double-digit game since Week 9. Ty Chandler had a hot start in Weeks 10 and 11, scoring over 10 points in both matchups, but when the wheels came off against Chicago, Chandler’s usage plummeted and he managed just six opportunities and a 33 percent snap share compared to Mattison’s 56% percent. If I were given the choice, I would actually feel better with Chandler if I was forced to choose between the two. Mattison has been inefficient at best in the run game, averaging under 4 yards per carry in more games than not, and hasn’t had a 3+ target game since week 7. Chandler, in limited work, has been similarly inefficient, but when the Vikings had two competitive matchups, he managed 29 opportunities. You’re playing for the ceiling if you play either, and Chandler has proven he can do that when the Vikings are able to play close to a neutral game script.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
Justin Jefferson (Start, WR2), Jordan Addison (Start, WR2), T.J. Hockenson (Start, TE1)
I cannot fathom a single moment when I thought to bench Justin Jefferson. There have been bye weeks when I’ve almost convinced myself he could make it into a Flex spot. I fully believe he may be on a snap count and there’s a non-zero chance he plays close to a 30 percent snap share. Knowing that, I am starting Justin Jefferson like it was Week 1 and I just walked out of the draft knowing everything in front of me was sure to be fried gold. I don’t expect him to drop out of the Top 25 WRs and right along with him will be Jordan Addison. Addison played the role of WR1 in Jefferson’s absence but struggled against top competition with Dobbs under center. Getting back to their earlier success, Addison should settle right back in as Dobbs’ third option behind JJ and T.J. Hockenson, the current overall TE1. Hock has had one of the most favorable schedules in recent memory, but he’s made the best of it and cemented himself as an elite tight end along with the likes of Travis Kelce and Mark Andrews. It’s unlikely Dobbs will be able to support any more fantasy relevance outside of those three.
Las Vegas Raiders
Quarterbacks
Aidan O’Connell (Sit)
It has been a bit of a rough start for Aidan O’Connell, so it was encouraging to see him play well in his start against the Chiefs in Week 12. It still had little fantasy relevance, but considering he came into the game with three touchdowns to six interceptions, a 248-yard, one-TD game with no INTs is a step in the right direction. Unfortunately, with zero rushing upside, there’s not enough that he’s shown in the passing game to warrant a start. It’s a good spot, especially after the bye, but the Raiders will be looking to grind out a game with a fresher Josh Jacobs to limit exposing O’Connell.
Running Backs
Josh Jacobs (Start, RB1)
Minnesota has been stingy to fantasy running backs, but Jacobs is still going to get the volume and the opportunity you need from an RB1. I would not be looking to sit him over many options because of it. Jacobs has logged 20 or more carries in three of his last four games and is coming off an impressive showing against the Chiefs in which he ran for over 100 yards and hauled in four catches. Interim head coach Antonio Pierce has shown that he wants to establish the run early and often. In a game where he’d presumably like to limit the amount of action for arguably the best wideout in the game, Jacobs is probably safe for another 20+ opportunities.
Wide Receivers/ Tight Ends
Davante Adams (Start, WR2), Jakobi Meyers (Start, Flex), Michael Mayer (Sit)
O’Connell is not going to sustain three fantasy-relevant options while Jacobs dominates the touches. The way to attack the Vikings is by throwing away from the safeties, so the expectation is to attack the outside where Davante Adams roams as a mismatch, regardless of whoever is covering him. Adams has 33 targets in his last three games and all signs point to that continuing. Michael Mayer is flashing a lot of what we saw in college but this is just not the draw for him. With him working nearly exclusively inside, he’ll be getting plenty of attention from the teeth of the defense that is Tp 10 against the tight end position. Only three TEs have 50 or more receiving yards in a game against the Vikings and Mayer is not Travis Kelce, George Kittle, or the eternal Jonnu Smith.
Jakobi Meyers has had enough success that if Pierce can get him moving around the formation, he could exploit the poor coverage ability behind Mekhi Blackmon. Jakobi has not found the same success with O’Connell consistently, but this has been the type of situation where the duo has succeeded together. His seven targets this past week were his high in the last five weeks, and if his involvement in the rushing and passing games says anything, it’s that the staff still views him as an important piece of the puzzle.