Game Info
Kickoff: Sunday, December 10th, 4:25 PM ET
Location: SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, California
Betting Odds: LAC -3, 44 total via Odds Shark
Network: CBS
Writer: Steve Bradshaw (@SteveBradshawFF)
Denver Broncos
Quarterback
Russell Wilson (Start, QB2)
The Denver Broncos got off to an abysmal start to the 2022 season, but Russell Wilson has helped turn this team around. Right now, the Broncos are 6-6, making this a must-win game. Wilson should bring his A-game, but even in a favorable matchup, he doesn’t sneak into QB1 territory; only six teams have compiled a lower pass/run ratio than the Broncos this season (54.66%). Don’t get me wrong — Wilson is still a high-end QB2 this week based on an amazing probable game script. Denver is a three-point underdog, and the over/under is relatively high at 44 points. On top of this, the Los Angeles Chargers have allowed the 5th most fantasy points to quarterbacks (18.75 PPG). That said, Wilson is averaging 16.7 PPG on the season and hasn’t thrown for 300 yards since Week 3. Wilson will be solid enough to avoid hurting fantasy teams this weekend but depending on him to punch playoff tickets is a tall order.
Running Backs
Javonte Williams (Start, Flex), Samaje Perine (Sit)
At some point, fantasy owners need to give up on what they hoped Javonte Williams would be. Sure, he is a serviceable flex option if you’re looking for 10 points a game, but he’s never going to be an RB1 or even a high-end RB2. Williams has been touted as a phenomenal runner, but in reality, he has been very inefficient this season. In games in which Williams has received over ten carries this year, he averaged more than 4 YPC only once.
To make things even worse, Samaje Perine is quietly taking a fair share of the receiving work in the Broncos backfield. In a game where the Broncos are underdogs, this hurts Williams from a fantasy perspective. Even though the Chargers have allowed the 11th most fantasy points to running backs (23.6 PPG), Williams is only viable as a flex play in Week 14. Meanwhile, Perine had impressive Weeks 11 and 12 but fell back to earth in Week 13. He hasn’t had over ten carries yet this year, and his only value proposition is his work on receiving downs. Perine has no stand-alone value, but his usage as a pass catcher is enough to annoy those who roster and start Williams every week.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
Courtland Sutton (Start, WR3), Jerry Jeudy (Start, Flex), Marvin Mims (Sit), Adam Trautman (Sit)
Courtland Sutton has been overrated in fantasy football circles for most of his career, but he’s averaging an impressive 13.5 PPG this year. Sutton looks like a great X receiver and has won so many 50/50 balls this year, which isn’t always translatable to fantasy. However, most of the reason for Sutton’s success is that he already has nine touchdowns and counting on the season.
Generally, it’s a good practice to avoid placing too much stock in touchdown-dependent players, as the production from those types of players tends to be volatile. However, there have only been three weeks so far in which Sutton hasn’t scored a touchdown. His best finish in those weeks: WR45. In the nine weeks in which he has scored a touchdown, Sutton has six Top 24 finishes; he has only one placed outside the Top 36 once in those games.
Sutton has a good matchup this week, making him a strong WR3. As I mentioned earlier, Wilson will likely be forced to throw the ball more than usual, which helps out all the Broncos receivers. On top of that, the Chargers have allowed the 3rd most fantasy points to wide receivers (39.13 PPG). According to Pro Football Focus, Sutton has a matchup advantage score of 55.1, which rates as “Average,” per PFF.
Like Sutton, Jerry Jeudy has a pretty good matchup, yet he’s a flex play at best. Prior to the 2023 season, I was a fan of Jeudy due to his fantastic route-running skills. Unfortunately, this year has been a nightmare for him. Things have gotten so bad that most NFL fans couldn’t remember anything he’s done in 2023 except beef with Steve Smith, Sr. To make things worse, Jeudy has a matchup advantage score of 46, which is “Average,” according to PFF. That said, Jeudy is averaging 8.6 PPG, which makes him a flex, at least in extremely deep leagues. Jeudy is more likely to exceed his mean, at least slightly, in a matchup against a susceptible opponent in a favorable projected game script.
Marvin Mims is an exciting young rookie, but his usage is too low to consider him as a starter; after logging consecutive games with a snap share north of 50 percent, his on-field presence has dropped for three consecutive weeks. Outside of a 20.3 and 10.6 point performance in Weeks 2 and 3, Mims hasn’t done anything this year. The same can be said for Adam Trautman, who has recorded only one game with over 10 points. Other than that, he’s averaging 3.5 PPG on the year. Pass.
Los Angeles Chargers
Quarterbacks
Justin Herbert (Start, QB1)
It seems like something goes wrong for Justin Herbert every year. The talent is there, but Herbert has never been able to reach his full potential due to some combination of poor coaching and/or injuries to key players surrounding him. In 2023, Mike Williams went down after just three games, and that has been a massive blow to the Chargers; no one has been able to step up and replicate either his production or his off-the-ball contributions.
Despite all of this, Herbert is still a low-end QB1 on a week-to-week basis. Right now, Herbert is averaging 19.3 PPG and should enjoy a fair amount of passing volume in what should shape up to be a high-scoring game. It’s also worth noting that the Broncos have allowed the 13th most fantasy points to quarterbacks (17.14 PPG) this year. Start Herbert without fear.
Running Backs
Austin Ekeler (Start, RB1), Joshua Kelley (Sit)
As dynasty fantasy football enthusiasts have seen so many times in the past with so many different players, Austin Ekeler is experiencing a sharp decline at age 28. Ekeler hasn’t completely fallen out of fantasy relevance due to his receiving ability, but he has been abysmal over the past three games with finishes of 7, 9.4, and 4.7-points in consecutive weeks. Ekeler has taken a deep dive in my ROS (rest of season) rankings.
That said, I’m starting Ekeler as an RB1 this week, as the Broncos have allowed the most fantasy points to running backs (29.27 PPG). The talent may be diminished, but the skill is there with Ekeler; he’s still averaging 14.3 PPG this season and is still capable of producing against inferior defensive competition. The projected game script should allow the Chargers to run the ball when they want, and it won’t deter them from throwing near the line of scrimmage, so I’m starting Ekeler with confidence.
With Joshua Kelley, there isn’t much to say except that you should drop him. Kelley isn’t startable no matter what. In a fairly close game, Kelley will be lucky to touch the ball five times. In 2023, Kelley is averaging 4.9 PPG and most of that is from a 15.1-point week-one performance.
Wide Receivers / Tight Ends
Keenan Allen (Start, WR1), Quentin Johnston (Sit), Jalen Guyton (Sit), Gerald Everett (Start, TE1)
At age 31, Keenan Allen is on pace to have the best fantasy season of his career. In 12 games, Allen is averaging a monstrous 22.2 PPG. Allen should be started as a WR1 every week, no matter his matchup. Although the Broncos have allowed the 5th fewest fantasy points to wide receivers (29.53 PPG), Allen has a matchup advantage score of 81.7, which rates as “Good,” per Pro Football Focus.
The Chargers 2023 Round 1 pick, Quentin Johnston, has had a very rough year. While I expected a slow start to his career, he’s had every opportunity to flourish, given the aformentioned injury to Williams. However, from a statistical standpoint, Johnston is coming off his best game of the year with five catches and 52 yards in Week 13. Recency bias aside, Johnston is averaging 4.7 PPG and faces a Broncos secondary that has been extremely good against wide receivers. To add insult to injury, Johnston has an unbelievably low matchup advantage score of 19.5, which is “Poor,” according to PFF.
I’m not sure why Jalen Guyton ever had fantasy value, but he’s a sit this week. Outside of his one 14.1-point game, which was fueled by a touchdown, Guyton hasn’t scored more than two points this year. If you need any further convincing, Guyton has a matchup advantage score of 8.1, which grades as “Poor,” per PFF, because they don’t have a lower designation.
Gerald Everett is the most challenging Sit/Start decision out of everyone on this list. He is only averaging 7.3 PPG on the year, but has a phenomenal matchup this week. Playing in a relatively high-scoring game gives Everett touchdown upside, which is crucial for tight ends. On top of that, the Broncos have allowed the second most fantasy points to tight ends (16.12 PPG). It gets even better: Everett has a 23% matchup advantage, according to PFF, which is well above average. Everett might be the best streaming option available in your free agent pool; don’t hesitate to pick him up if you’re looking for options due to injuries or Trey McBride‘s bye week.