Game Info
Kickoff: Sunday, October 29, 1:00 pm EST
Location: Lambeau Field, Green Bay, WI
Betting Odds: MN -1 O/U 42.5 Total via PFF.com
Network: FOX
Writer: Matt Prendergast (@amazingmattyp on X/Twitter)
Green Bay Packers
Quarterback
Jordan Love (Start, QB2)
I’m rattled on how to approach the topic of Jordan Love – he scores fantasy points, maybe not reaching the stratosphere, but he ends with a decent tally almost every week from his work very late in games, via the most excruciating methods possible. For nearly two-thirds of every game this season, he has looked baffled and incapable of looking past his first read. The overall offensive approach Green Bay is rolling out isn’t helping his development much, but after watching six games of the Love era, I can confidently say that some of the fault lays on his receivers for not being three feet taller and/or possessing spinal columns that can disjoint themselves a foot and a half backward on command. Still, thanks to Matt LaFleur’s approach of laying back and doing whatever until down three scores in the third quarter, Love somehow ends most weeks hovering near that 20-point mark, due in large part to touchdowns, as he appears to have a force field prohibiting him from completing passes over 15 yards except by fluke or act of God. It’s early in his career, I get it…but for fantasy this week, I don’t LOVE Love, I really only like him. (Draws in and checks off ‘maybe’ box on note slid under the desk saying ‘Start Jordan Love? Yes or No?’) He might be the best SuperFlex guy going this year regardless.
Running Backs
Aaron Jones (Start?, Flex), AJ Dillon (Start, RB2)
This feels insane. Am I losing my gourd? Did Kareem Jackson ‘tackle’ me today? AJ Dillon has put together back-to-back (or more accurately back-to-bye-to-back) above-average games. His 20 attempts for 76 and a score against Las Vegas in Week 5 was one thing – it was still ‘him and a walk-on’ in the backfield. Last week, it was intentional – Dillon outcarried the assumed all-star Aaron Jones by nearly double – 15 carries to Jones’ 8 – turning that into 61 yards and added 34 yards on 2 receptions and did so at critical times (Jones tagged in with 22 yards on one additional reception). He was also recognized in a graphic that noted he is tied with Derrick Henry as ‘The Heaviest Running Back in the League’ at 247 pounds. Not the same production with that girth though, if we’re being honest. Meanwhile, Jones was once again relegated to ‘a couple good looking efforts’ and then squirreled away into Matt LaFleur’s pantry to be forgotten about for full drives at a time. Even the aforementioned training camp feel-good story Emanuel Wilson stole two carries from our man Showtyme last week. I cannot trust that Jones, even at full health (which he appeared to be), will be used in anything remotely near the correct capacity on this year’s team. The Vikings are 17th in the league in overall rushing yards given but tied for third in yards per carry allowed at 3.6 per. Just this Sunday, they kept Christian McCaffrey, the best running back in the league, to 45 yards. I can’t just sit Jones, it feels wrong, but I don’t expect the offensive plan to suddenly get smarter after almost a half-year of unexplainable ineptness, I do expect the relentless pounding away with AJ to continue for another outing because that’s the one aspect that’s started working, but that’s a low-end RB2 prediction, for what it’s worth. If you slip him down to a flex, I understand completely.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
Christian Watson (Sit*, Flex), Romeo Doubs (Start, WR3), Jayden Reed (Start, Flex), Luke Musgrave (Sit)
Against the Broncos, a team that I think we all can agree should have allowed at least two of these guys to have season-high games, the entire Green Bay receiving crew was rendered mostly ineffective, and while the root cause of this abject failure may or may not be somewhat related to Jordan Love’s current struggles at identifying second reads, it may also have been direly affected by balls going five to ten yards off-target. Listen, we’re not pointing fingers here, we’re just going to note that of the four Packer receivers that tied for target leaders of the week, none of them finished with more than 30 yards, two of them didn’t finish the game (Christian Watson and Luke Musgrave) and only Romeo Doubs saw the end zone. And he should have seen it twice, but the deadly Love power combo of ‘slightly behind him and way too hard’ that predecessor Brett Favre made so famous, ended up with Doubs just setting it nicely to ‘Give Him the D%$* Ball’ Jayden Reed, who somehow caught that. First: Romeo Doubs should be credited with an assist on that touchdown, and that should count for three points in fantasy. Second: This team, which desperately needs to start focusing on things that work, NEEDS to get Doubs involved more early and often and implement better match-up schemes for Reed. Pro Football Focus has Doubs with a Good matchup advantage (65.5) against Minnesota and Reed with an average projection, neighboring on good (58.2).
With any fortune, maybe they figure something out along these lines this week, as the success this offense has had this year in the passing game has usually involved one (or in this case, both) of them. Watson left last week with a knee issue and despite the bravado early this week of ‘just need to work through the pain’ I don’t trust it for a second. This team will sit him for a whole season if they think he’s potentially banged up (which at this point, he pretty much always is). If they play him, I probably couldn’t resist sticking him in a Flex spot because he’s always a ‘but what if?’ candidate. Considering this year is quickly slipping away, I don’t expect them to rush him out there. His matchup per Pro Football Focus is rated as Below Average regardless.
Luke Musgrave is still in a boot at this juncture I’m writing this, and whatever combo of Josiah Deguara and Ben Sims and Tucker Kraft Green Bay turns to for his 5 or 6 targets is none of our business for fantasy play. If Musgrave heals up, I still don’t see him as more than a substitute for an injured guy on your roster, otherwise, he sits.
Minnesota Vikings
Quarterbacks
Kirk Cousins (Start, QB1)
Hot dang, Kurt! You get me all furious and ready to lose my mind last week, and then you go out and do that? 378 yards and two touchdowns and only ONE pick? Against the 49ers? You’re a scamp, buddy. Anyway, I still don’t like you, but I gotta respect you. And I REALLY gotta recommend you this week going against a broken Packers’ defense that lost starting safety Darnell Savage last week, lost CB2 Eric Stokes before he completed a whole game (always a good sign), and still haven’t seen J’aire Alexander or De’Vondre Campbell in about a month. All of the Packers are a mess – and even with an improbable return of two or even three of these guys this week, so what? Kirk Cousins, in a just world, will reward his fantasy owners well this week because of that turmoil.
Running Backs
Alexander Mattison (Start, RB2), Cam Akers (Start, Flex)
Last week the Vikings started utilizing Cam Akers a bit more than he’d been trending since his arrival in the Twin Cities. Cam had ten carries to Alexander Mattison‘s eight – however, his yards per carry averaged out at 3.1 in comparison to Mattison’s 4.9. Overall the snap count division between the two still favored Mattison at 37 to Akers’ 27. The point here? We might be looking at the beginnings of a more equal timeshare, which is going to devalue Mattison down the line – IF that’s the case. For now, I don’t want to view one week of decent Cam usage as a new trend. That said – both Javonte Williams and Jaleel McLaughlin had success against this Packers’ run defense last week – Javonte with 15 carries and an average of 5.47 ypc (long of 21), Jaleel with 5 carries and an average of 9.0 (long of 23). Green Bay has a lot of things to fix, and they won’t be getting that done already – if I’ve got either of these Vikings RBs, I’m figuring out how to get them in my lineup this week.
Wide Receivers/ Tight End
Jordan Addison (Start, WR2), K.J. Osborn (Sit, Flex), Brandon Powell (Sit), TJ Hockenson (Start, TE1)
Once again the Pro Football Focus WR/CB matchups don’t promise anything explosively advantageous for the Vikings receiving crew, but they didn’t last week either, and Jordan Addison let us forget about JJ for a couple of hours. Look for more of that this week against a jigsaw puzzle of a Packers’ secondary that’s missing several critical pieces. Addison’s 7 for 10 game doubled the target share of his receiving brethren Brandon Powell (4 for 5 for 64 yards) and K.J. Osborn (5 for 6 for 47). Decent games for both, but I just don’t see Powell repeating that success as his career hasn’t shown anything that indicates a ‘hidden gem’ here. If pushed, I might run with Osborn in a flex, but with no teams on bye this week, there are plenty of other flyers I’d take a chance on before either the Vikings WR2 or WR3. The primary thing influencing my thoughts here is that TJ Hockenson remains a freaking animal, and hoarded almost all of his team-leading targets, rolling over San Francisco with 11 catches on 12 targets and 86 yards. I will state this calmly and strongly based on institutional knowledge: The Green Bay Packers do not see a lot of success against monster Tight Ends. I expect him to equal, if not blow past, last week’s target total.
I can’t anymore with these intrusive ads. Very poor placement.