Game Info
Kickoff: Sunday, October 29th, 1:00 PM ET
Location: Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, NC
Betting Odds: HOU -3, O/U 43.5 via OddsShark
Network: FOX
Writer: Nick Beaudoin (I don’t have Twitter)
Houston Texans
Quarterback
CJ Stroud (Start, High-QB2)
CJ Stroud has been the resurgence that this Texans’ organization has needed for a long time. Despite being down four starting offensive linemen in their first few games, Stroud has excelled in his rookie season, averaging 277 passing yards/game, with a 9:1 TD/INT ratio, and leading the Texans to a surprising 3-3 start to the season. For fantasy purposes, he is currently ranked QB14 in PPG. After a full week of rest, Stroud and the Texans head to Carolina to face a Panthers’ defense ranking 22nd in PPG to opposing fantasy QBs. We will have to monitor their status throughout the week, but if the Texans can piece back together this offensive line sooner rather than later, it can only mean good things for Stroud and the Texans’ offense as a whole. With an implied-point total of 23, I think Stroud will continue to find success against a struggling Carolina secondary. With no teams on bye this week, Stroud is a High-QB2, Low-QB1 option this week against the Panthers.
Running Backs
Dameon Pierce (Start, Low-RB2), Devin Singletary (Sit)
Although we’ve been disappointed in Dameon Pierce this season, I do believe there is hope for him yet, and that there is a narrative explaining his (perceived) downfall. We’ve already touched on the four injured offensive linemen, which is obviously a blow to any RB no matter how talented, but it’s also worth noting that the Texans’ opening schedule was brutal to RBs. Excluding favorable matchups in the Colts and Steelers, the Texans have faced the Ravens, Jaguars, Falcons, and Saints – all of which fall in the top half (three in the top eight) in PPG to opposing fantasy RBs.
In four of the next six weeks, the Texans have much better matchups against teams like the Panthers (31st), Bengals (21st), Cardinals (30th) and Broncos (32nd). With a more favorable schedule and healthier offensive line, I’m counting on Pierce to improve on the RB38 in PPG he currently holds, starting this week. I’m liking what I see from this offense, and am rolling with Pierce as a low RB2 this week.
I know some are concerned with Devin Singletary outperforming Pierce in Week 6, but Singletary also had 0 carries in Week 5, so I’m not counting on that trend to continue. Most teams operate with multiple RBs in today’s game, so I expect Singletary to be involved, but I believe Pierce is the better talent, and I’m treating Singletary as the second option in this offense until proven otherwise.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
Nico Collins (Start, High-WR2), Tank Dell (Start, WR3), Robert Woods (Sit, Flex), Dalton Schultz (Start, Low-TE1)
Nobody appreciates the emergence of CJ Stroud more than Nico Collins. Dynasty managers have rejoiced watching their “breakout candidate” of the past three years finally do so. Even in some tough individual matchups, Collins still enters the week as the WR16 in PPG this season. He is 10th in receiving yards, and third in YAC, and I don’t believe his ceiling has been reached with only three touchdowns on the season. According to PFF rankings, he has excellent matchups with both CBs CJ Henderson and Donte Jackson this week, so we can expect him to continue dominating his 21.3% target share for this offense. He is undoubtedly Stroud’s best weapon, currently averaging seven targets and 91 yards/game, making him a solid WR2 this week, with WR1 upside.
Tank Dell was hand-picked by CJ Stroud in the Texans’ war room on Draft Night, and the two have already shown incredible chemistry early on in their young careers. The only downfall for Dell so far (fantasy-wise) has been inconsistency, with as many “blow-up” games as disappearing acts. Dell has surprisingly played outside (3:1 ratio) more than the slot this season, which could be good news for his fantasy upside if they continue that trend this week, for the same reasons as Collins above. I like Dell this week as a WR3 option with upside.
Carolina’s slot CB Troy Hill currently ranks 14th in PFF’s coverage rating this season, which may make life tough for Robert Woods, who has played 49% of his snaps from the slot this season. He is quietly averaging 7.2 targets/game on the season, and converting that into a respectable 8.5 PPG. Woods’ volume puts him in low-end FLEX consideration each week, but his ceiling remains limited as the third (arguably fourth) option on this offense with low touchdown equity.
After doing wind sprints for the first three games, Dalton Schultz has risen from the grave in the past three, scoring one touchdown in each, while averaging 56 yards and 6.7 targets/game. The Panthers are right in the middle in PPG to opposing TEs, making Schultz a viable streamer in a reasonable matchup this week.
Carolina Panthers
Quarterbacks
Bryce Young (Start, Low-QB2)
Although Bryce Young hasn’t shown the immediate promise that CJ Stroud has, he has improved significantly in his past two games, putting up QB9 and QB17 numbers in Weeks 5 and 6, respectively. Although Houston comes in middle-of-the-pack in PPG to opposing QBs (16th), they are top-three in PPG to WRs, and the Panthers don’t have enough firepower to give me full confidence in him. Still, with a team-implied total of 20 and a favorable game script, I like Young to put up low-end QB2 numbers this week.
Running Backs
Miles Sanders (Start, FLEX), Chuba Hubbard (Start, FLEX)
Miles Sanders has become arguably the most polarizing option in all of fantasy football. He has already faced groin and pectoral injuries, and missed Week 6 entirely with a shoulder issue. Before their bye in Week 7, HC Frank Reich stated that the team did not feel his injuries were long-term, so we will have to monitor his practice reports, but we can likely expect his return this week. Where the Texans excel in coverage, they have lacked in their rush defense, ranking bottom-10 in PPG to fantasy RBs. Despite a good matchup, it is hard to know or trust what Sanders’ usage will look like after an impressive performance from Chuba Hubbard. With that being said, if he is healthy, he should see 8-10 touches and be a low-ceiling FLEX option in a good matchup.
Chuba Hubbard played well in the absence of Sanders, combining 20 touches for 90 yards and one touchdown against Miami. You’d have to think this performance (and full health) has earned him more playing time, but the Panthers paid Miles Sanders to be the guy, and sometimes ego gets in the way of decision-making. I like Hubbard over Sanders this week due to the game script and pass-catching abilities, and will bump him up to a low RB2 if Sanders is unable to go.
Wide Receivers / Tight Ends
Adam Thielen (Start, WR1), DJ Chark (Sit, FLEX), Jonathon Mingo (Sit), Terrace Marshall (Sit), Hayden Hurst (Sit), Tommy Tremble (Sit)
Oh, Adam Thielen. What is there to say? In spite of the entire fantasy community, you’ve essentially reached the “must-start” status again. The WR6 in PPG this season has become an absolute target monster (pretty good Halloween costume right there) this year, with a 26.8% target share, and is currently running a 97.9% route participation rate. He has another good matchup this week with slot CB Jimmie Ward, and is Bryce Young’s first read in (weekly) positive game scripts. If it ain’t broke, they say.
DJ Chark is second on the team with a snap share of 83%. He has had some big(ger) games, but unless he scores a touchdown, he is a low-floor, medium-ceiling FLEX option in the offense, averaging 5.6 targets and just 39.4 yards/game. PFF ranks him with difficult matchups across the board this week, so it’s probably best to stay away.
Jonathon Mingo continues to battle with Chark for the WR2 role in this offense. He is currently just behind with a 78% snap share, and actually slightly ahead with a 15.3% target share – but with 133 scoreless yards on the season, we cannot trust him in fantasy lineups just yet.
Even after his nine reception, 56-yard performance against Minnesota, former second-round pick Terrace Marshall has struggled to see the field, quietly warming the bench for the healthy duo of Chark and Mingo. It has been reported that Marshall was given permission to seek a trade, but he is welcome back to the team if unable to find a suitor.
The “Warm Body” TE room of Hayden Hurst and Tommy Tremble can be avoided entirely this week, and probably every week moving forward. Hurst is the leader, out-snapping Tremble 56% to 29%, but ever since his TE2 overall performance in Week 1, he has been unable to finish higher than TE30 in any of the past five weeks. He has seen exactly three targets each week since then, but has not once topped 21 receiving yards. Houston is 21st in PPG against TEs for whatever that’s worth, but I cannot in good conscience recommend either of them to be in your lineups.
– Nick Beaudoin
I can’t anymore with these intrusive ads. Very poor placement.