Game Info
Kickoff: Sunday, October 29th, 2023, 1:00 PM ET
Location: MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, New Jersey
Betting Odds: NYG +3 (opened at +2.5), 37 O/U (opened at 38.5) total via oddsshark.com
Network: CBS
Writer: Adam Sloate (@MrAdster99)
New York Jets
Quarterbacks
Zach Wilson (Sit)
Coming into the Jets’ bye week, Zach Wilson was in the best three-game stretch of his career, with serviceable outings against some of the NFL’s best teams, and also the Denver Broncos. He was taking care of the football and finding his receivers at a higher clip than in years prior.
Now, coming off the bye week, it is still difficult to trust Wilson in all but the deepest of leagues, given his inconsistent touchdown production (two TD passes in his last three games) and residence behind a pitiful offensive line (11 (!) sacks in his last three games). He’s running the football a bit more, too, but not nearly enough to return appropriate fantasy value. Two things to mention regarding this matchup: the Giants’ pass rush is a much different and much less talented animal than the Eagles’ pass rush. However, the Giants have been known — thanks to DC Wink Martindale — to blitz opponents heavily, so Wilson will have to get rid of the ball quickly to be successful.
Running Backs
Breece Hall (Start, RB1), Dalvin Cook (Sit)
This is a smash spot for Breece Hall. The matchup is terrific, as the Giants boast among the league’s worst run defenses. The G-Men rank 28th in ESPN’s run-stop win rate, 26th in PFF’s run-defense rating, and are among the top 8 teams in terms of fantasy points allowed to opposing running backs. In his last game against a run defense of this caliber, back in Week 5 against the Denver Broncos (31st in run-stop win rate, 30th in PFF run defense), Hall ran wild for 177 yards and a TD. Now that Hall is back to his bell-cow workload (average of 17 carries per game, which would put him at roughly the same clip of touches per game as Christian McCaffrey), Hall should have plenty of opportunities to break off chunk plays against the Giants.
A bonus point in favor of Hall: Vegas views this game as being particularly close, so fantasy investors don’t have to worry about a potential negative game script detracting from Hall’s workload.
Dalvin Cook isn’t fantasy-relevant in the Jets’ current situation. Since Hall’s workload was “uncapped” for the Broncos game, Cook has seen a total of 9 carries for 35 yards. The Jets haven’t utilized their RBs as pass-catchers very much yet, but what little passing work there is has gone to Hall, not Cook; In the last 3 games, Cook has had 2 targets, while Hall has had 12. Minimal receiving work and touchdown-dependent rushing value means Cook is a clear bench/drop.
Wide Receivers/ Tight Ends
Garrett Wilson (Start, WR2), Allen Lazard (Sit), Tyler Conklin (TE2)
Correlated with Zach Wilson‘s mini-breakout is Garrett Wilson’s target share, as GW has seen a substantial increase in average targets per game over the last three games (7.3 targets per game in Weeks 1-3, and 11 targets per game in Weeks 4-6). Wilson has a favorably rated matchup against the Giants’ secondary this week, so I would expect him to perform at least similarly to the last couple of weeks. I’d love to rate GW higher, but as long as Zach Wilson is under center and performing like this — even the improved version of Zach Wilson isn’t turning Garrett Wilson into a fantasy stud — GW is going to sit right around WR2/3 status.
Allen Lazard was quiet last week, but he’s produced enough over the full body of the season to think that Week 6’s three-target dud against the Eagles was the exception, not the rule. Since Zach Wilson has taken over in full from Aaron Rodgers (meaning from Week 2 onwards), Lazard has been good for four-ish targets per game and 30 receiving yards, which is enough to return flex value. Of the receiving options listed above, though, I’m least certain that Lazard will return his value this week because there’s only so much food to go around for all of the mouths in the Jets offense, and if the Jets are going to lean on their running game a bit more this week, then the number of targets to go around is going to decrease, and Lazard is a bit more likely to be left out or whittled down in the gameplan than Garrett Wilson or Tyler Conklin.
Tyler Conklin has quietly been producing at TE2 levels every week except Week 1, and you can expect the same here. The Giants have actually been decent against opposing tight ends in terms of fantasy points allowed, but Conklin has been a trustable fantasy asset against defenses of all calibers. He’s been good for at least 5.4 points per week in full PPR leagues, and the fact that 5.4 is enough for TE2 status is a grim reminder of the state of the TE position in fantasy. Even so, Conklin is getting a pretty substantial share of the Jets’ passing attack, as he’s responsible for 16% of the team’s targets this season. And, Conklin isn’t just seeing cheap targets next to the line of scrimmage; he’s getting a pretty substantial amount of air yards per reception (above average for a starting TE) and is even turning in post-catch yardage. If he could just get some targets a little further downfield, or even develop some rapport with Zach Wilson in the red zone, Conklin would be pushing TE1 status.
New York Giants
Quarterbacks
Daniel Jones/Tyrod Taylor (Sit)
As of the time of this writing, it is unclear whether Daniel Jones is going to be healthy in time for this Sunday. If he can’t go, Tyrod Taylor would be the guy.
While Taylor did put up QB2 numbers last week, throwing for 279 yards and two TDs, Taylor’s just not good enough to make this juice worth the squeeze against the Jets. The Commanders are a much weaker defense than the Jets, as Washington ranks 26th in defensive DVOA thus far, while the Jets grade out as the 11th-best in defensive DVOA. Taylor won’t be able to prey on another horrendous coverage unit like Washington’s, as the Jets are fairly strong in coverage–though that may not be completely true if Sauce Gardner and D.J. Reed remain in concussion protocol throughout the week. Readers should also remember that Taylor, facing a much more fearsome Bills defense (relative to the Commanders) in his first full start this season in Week 6, didn’t hit QB2 status in that game. I expect the Jets to get after whichever quarterback ends up starting for the Giants, and wouldn’t recommend starting either unless you’re particularly desperate.
Running Backs
Saquon Barkley (Start, RB2)
Barkley hyperextended his left elbow against the Commanders but claimed he would “be alright” for this week. Barkley, if playing, is an obvious start despite some early struggles behind this terrible Giants offensive line. He’s averaging just 3.8 yards per carry on the season and has only one rushing TD, and the matchup is rated as one of the worst OL/DL matchups of the week, but he’s going to be getting a full workload. The Giants’ offense is better with Barkley playing, even if he’s not particularly efficient with his carries, so he’s going to be on the field as often as he can possibly handle with his elbow injury.
The same thought with Breece Hall thus applies to Barkley–with the game expected to be close, Barkley will likely see plenty of work on the ground. However, it’s not as crucial for Barkley to see rushing work as much as Hall because Barkley is a bit more integrated into the receiving game for the Giants than Hall is with the Jets. Barkley might be the Giants’ best receiver, too.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
Jalin Hyatt (Sit), Darren Waller (Start, TE1)
If you insist on wading through the morass that is the Giants’ receiving corps (outside of Darren Waller), then my choice for a dart throw would be Jalin Hyatt. Hyatt finally broke out a bit last week against the Commanders, reeling in two of his five targets for 75 yards. That 75-yard performance was the second-highest single-game receiving yard performance for any Giants receiver this season, second only to…Jalin Hyatt, who had two catches for 89 yards against the Arizona Cardinals in Week 2. Hyatt is the receiver worth “checking out” in this offense due to his home run playmaking ability — and his track record as the only Giants receiver who has put up a fantasy-relevant workload in multiple weeks this season — but the Giants haven’t consistently utilized Hyatt for that deep threat just yet. Hyatt might be better as a speculative, end-of-bench add at this point; he’s not worth starting for the possibility of deep downfield targets.
The only player worth starting from this offense is Darren Waller, who has been more often on the TE2 side of 10 fantasy points than the TE1 side this season (what we in the biz call “fringe TE1”), but I still consider him a TE1 this week because his workload is really reliable. Lately, Waller has been on the upswing, bringing his average fantasy output closer to where it’s been in prior years. He put an exclamation point on his recent run by finally catching his first TD of the year and setting a season-high in receiving yardage. As nice as it was that Waller finally put up a clear TE1 performance, it was also encouraging to see that the switch to Tyrod Taylor under center didn’t slow him down at all. No matter who starts for the rest of the season, whether it’s Jones or Taylor, Waller can be counted on for at least fringe TE1 production. One thing to note this week is that Waller will be matched up with the talented LB C.J. Mosley, which could push his production down a bit. I don’t expect the unfavorable matchup to affect him much, though, because, let’s face it, where else are the targets going to go?
I can’t anymore with these intrusive ads. Very poor placement.