Game Info
Kickoff: Sunday, October 29th, 8:20 PM ET
Location: SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, California
Betting Odds: LAC -9, 46.5 total via Oddsshark
Network: NBC
Writer: Mario Adamo Jr. (@marioadamojr on Twitter, /u/dotcaim on Reddit)
Los Angeles Chargers
Quarterback
Justin Herbert (Start, QB1)
Last week was ugly for Justin Herbert. It was his first finish outside the top 12 since Week 16 of last year, and he doubled his interception total for the season. I’m burying the tape, putting that game behind us, and looking ahead to this week. This week the Chargers face the Bears who allow 21.29 pointers per game to opposing signal callers, the fourth-most in the league. I’m shaking last week’s performance off and starting Herbert with confidence this week.
Running Backs
Austin Ekeler (Start, RB1), Joshua Kelley (Start, RB2)
Remeber Week 1 Austin Ekeler managers? 26.4 points and a bright season ahead. Since then Ekeler has combined for 15.8 points. Granted, he’s only played two games in that stretch. This week the Chargers have a favorable matchup for running backs as the Bears allow 17.86 points per game to the position, the tenth-highest in the league. I’m continuing to plug Ekeler into my lineup and, despite two pedestrian performances recently, I continue to have high expectations for Ekeler to return to Week 1 form.
The more interesting player in this backfield is Joshua Kelley. In two out of three games in which he played with Ekeler this season, Kelley has an RB18 or better performance. In both of those games, Kelley had at least 75 rushing yards and a touchdown. Besides Week 6 when the Chargers faced Dallas, one of the better defenses in the league, Kelley has had at least seven carries in each game this season. I’m not guaranteeing he’ll score another touchdown, but I believe he’s a better flex play than he’s getting credit for.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
Keenan Allen (Start, WR1), Joshua Palmer (Start, High-WR2), Quentin Johnston (Sit), Gerald Everett (Start, Low-TE1), Donald Parham Jr. (Start if Everett is out, High-TE2)
Last week was Keenan Allen’s worst week since Week 7 of last year. He only caught four of his nine targets for 55 yards and no touchdowns. Allen has two finishes as the top wide receiver in PPR this year, I’m not worried by a single bad performance. I expect a bounce-back performance from Allen this week; I’m starting him in all lineups with no hesitations.
Here’s a fun stat for Joshua Palmer managers. Since Week 4 (reminder: Mike Williams was injured in Week 3) Palmer has 22 targets and averages 90 yards per game while Allen has 25 targets but is averaging 57 yards per game. Palmer has established himself as the firm number two option in this offense. Palmer has solid upside as a WR2 in your lineup.
Quentin Johnston has yet to take that step forward, I don’t consider him rosterable for the time being. Over the Chargers’ last three games, Johnston has two catches on seven targets. He plays 54% of snaps but is not getting meaningful volume in the passing game.
For the tight-end position, it really comes down to health. Gerald Everett caught a touchdown last week but he did suffer a quad injury during the game. At the time of writing this, there were no updates as to whether Everett practiced on Wednesday. Keep a close eye on Everett’s health, if he misses the game Donald Parham Jr. is rostered in ~2% of leagues and would get a considerable bump in projections. The Bears are pretty average against tight ends, allowing 6.43 to the position.
Chicago Bears
Quarterback
Tyson Bagent (Sit)
The Bears blew out the Raiders last week 30-12, so Tyson Bagent probably went off as part of that right? Well, Bagent finished as QB20 last week with his 162 passing yards and single passing touchdown. Although the Chargers allow the most points to quarterbacks they face, 26.67 points per game, I’m expecting another conservative passing game from the Bears (story of their franchise). I’m keeping expectations tempered for Bagent despite the very favorable matchup. With no byes this week, I’m sure there are better options available in your league’s player pool.
Running Backs
D’Onta Foreman (Start, RB2), Roschon Johnson (Start if Healthy, Low-Flex)
Okay, egg on my face. I was not a believer in D’Onta Foreman last week. Last week Foreman scored more rushing touchdowns than the other Bears running backs have combined this year. I can’t say that Foreman will score three times again this week, but with rookie quarterback Tyson Bagent in line to start again this week I expect heavy run game usage. The opportunities alone should allow Foreman to sit in the RB2 range.
Roschon Johnson is still in concussion protocol as of Wednesday, but he did get some activity in practice. I’m keeping expectations low for Johnson if he does play, but at the time of writing this preview, I’m not optimistic he will see the field Sunday.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
DJ Moore (Start, WR2), Darnell Mooney (Sit), Tyler Scott (Sit), Cole Kmet (Sit, Low-TE2)
What to do with DJ Moore. I’ve previously sung his praises, going as far as to say the Chicago Bears offense operates through DJ Moore. That was back when Justin Fields was in his groove and not on the sidelines. With Tyson Bagent under center, the sentiment is still true, but the driving force behind that offense is just not the same. Moore still got the lion’s share of targets, he saw 9 of the team’s 28 targets. He was very close to finding the end zone before he stepped out of bounds last week, so the team is still giving him opportunities. The Chargers are also the worst team against wide receivers, allowing a league-leading 29.67 points per game to wideouts this year. Moore is the bonafide WR1 option on this offense with zero competition in the passing game, but with the rookie under-center the passing game has taken a back seat. I still start Moore but have to lower some expectations until Fields returns to the lineup.
Darnell Mooney caught all four of his targets last week for 32 yards. While Mooney is the number two option as far as wide receivers go on the Bears, this offense just does not have enough volume to support Mooney. The Bears are eighth-fewest in total pass attempts and fourth-fewest in pass attempts to wide receivers. I can’t imagine starting Mooney this, or any week.
Great Scott! Tyler Scott actually had his best game of the season last week with Bagent under center, catching two of his three targets for 19 yards for a finish of 5.3 points. Even with the hot hands and the very favorable matchup (again 29.67 ppg to WRs), with no byes this week I’m not taking a chance on Scott. He can be considered worth a shot in deep, deep leagues.
Cole Kmet didn’t have a target last week. Without Fields, I’m lowering expectations and even benching Kmet for other options. His touchdown potential took a nose dive with Bagnet under center, and without that upside Kmet just isn’t startable.
I can’t anymore with these intrusive ads. Very poor placement.