Game Info
Kickoff: Thursday, October 26th, 2023, 8:15 PM ET
Location: Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park, New York
Betting Odds: BUF -8.5, 43.5O/U total via oddshark.com
Network: Prime Video
Writer: Dustin Ludke (@TheDunit13 on Twitter)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Quarterback
Baker Mayfield (Sit, QB2)
Baker Mayfield has proven that he can be on a team that wins but has yet to prove that he can actually be the reason why they win games. At the end of the day, Baker is more of a game manager than we want to admit. For fantasy, we want the former first-overall pick to be a superstar, or at least an above-average quarterback, but he has been just okay. He has only one game in the QB1 range and often is at the lower end of, if not out of the QB2 range. Gien that he will be facing a Buffalo Bills defense that is giving up the 3rd fewest points to quarterbacks and on a short week I’m not trusting Baker in my lineup. Sit him this week.
Running Backs
Rachaad White (Start, RB2)
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers let Leonard Fournette go this offseason and didn’t invest heavily in another running back, leaving the bulk of the work to be carried by second-year rusher Rachaad White. Unfortunately, so far this season White has been okay at best. He is averaging only 3.2 yards per carry when the league average is around 4.3. He has seen double-digit carries in all but one game but only once has had over 20 total touches. With the passing game clicking there hasn’t been much need to overuse White. He faces the Bills defense that is giving up the 11th most fantasy points to running back and the 11th best-run defense by PFF.com. It’s a game that could get White back on track but I expect the Bucs to be behind which usually means less rushing. With White only having a small role in the passing game I can’t trust him as anything more than a RB2. It’s worth noting that Chase Edmonds is coming off the IR and will play so he could eat into White’s role a little.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
Mike Evans (Start, WR3), Chris Godwin (Start, WR2), Cade Otton (Sit, TE2),
We all know that Mike Evans is playing for his 10th straight 1000-yard season, but did you know that he is currently on pace for the most yards he has ever had in a season? Well, that is where we are heading into Week 8 of the NFL season. It’s been better than expected for the Bucs and Milke Evans with Baker under center. Evans will be looking to continue his career pace this week against the Bills. The Bills are currently giving up the 10th fewest points to wide receivers but they keep falling down that list as the weeks go on. Injuries have hurt the secondary this year. Evans will probably see coverage from Dane Jackson who rates as the 43rd best corner. I expect the Bills to bring one of their All-Pro safeties over to help, most likely Micah Hyde who rates as the 21st best cover safety by PFF.com. Evans has only had two disappointing games this year so far but I think this could be another one. I’m still starting him based on the volume of targets and his pace this year but I’m not expecting him to get out of the WR3 range.
When Evans gets doubled, that will open up space for Chris Godwin. Even though Bills’ corner Christian Benford rates as the 55th-best corner (out of 117 cornerbacks that qualify), I expect Godwin to win that matchup. Godwin excels in the intermediate part of the field which is where the Bills are missing linebacker Matt Milano who is great in coverage. The Bills will probably move guys like linebacker Terrel Bernard and safety Jordan Poyer up into the box to stop the run and put pressure on Baker. I see Godwin having a great day in terms of targets. He is coming off a game where he saw 12 targets, which is the second time this season he has seen double-digit targets. I think Godwin could be a solid WR2 this week. Touchdowns haven’t come yet for him but even without them, he has been in the WR3 range four times this year. I think this is the week he takes a jump up.
Cade Otton has started to climb the tight-end ranks for me this year. He is checking most of the boxes. Playing all the snaps? Yep, he’s played 97% of the Buccaneers offensive snaps this season. High on the team’s target order? Absolutely, he’s tied for third on the team in targets behind the obvious candidates. What’s lacking for Otton to really break out is red zone work and higher yards per target. He is just middle of the road in those categories but I love that it’s Evans, Godwin, and then him in terms of pass catchers. Guys like Trey Palmer aren’t pushing him in targets. The Bills are giving up the 10th fewest points to tight ends so not a great fantasy matchup for Otton. With no one on bye, you can probably find a better matchup and option this week. If you have to start Otton I think he will be in the TE2 range.
Buffalo Bills
Quarterback
Josh Allen (Start, QB1)
Josh Allen has all the physical talent in the world. He has the size, he has the arm strength, he has the rushing upside. It seems like the only thing really holding him back from being in the MVP talk is all the mental mistakes. Josh Allen has seven interceptions on the season and one in each of the last three games. He has to turn things around for the Bills to have a shot at repeating at the divisional crown and a possible Super Bowl run. For fantasy managers, Allen has been just fine. Don’t let real-world football cloud what he is doing in fantasy lineups. Only twice this season has he not been in the QB1 range. He gets to face a Buccaneers defense that is giving up the 11th fewest points to quarterbacks but that doesn’t matter for Allen. The team relies on him when they are leading or when they are behind. He can do it with his arms or legs. He has talent all around him catching the ball. You can safely start Allen as a QB1.
Running Backs
James Cook (Start, RB2), Latavius Murray (Sit)
The Bills’ running game this season hasn’t been bad but I don’t think it’s been good either. James Cook was given the lead back job and that is still the case for the foreseeable future. Unfortunately, he hasn’t been as effective as fantasy managers would have wanted. Cook only has over 15 carries in two games and is seemingly losing some work to ten-year veteran Latavius Murray. Facing a tough Buccaneers defense that is giving up the 8th fewest points to running backs it’s hard to really trust Cook. He is averaging 4.7 yards per carry and already has 21 targets on the season so he is good enough to be a RB2 this week. You want to see more and the Bills are rumored to be in the trade market for a running back so it could turn really bad for Cook at a moment’s notice.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
Stefon Diggs (Start, WR1), Gabe Davis (Start, WR3), Khalil Shakir (Sit), Dawson Knox (OUT) Dalton Kincaid (Start, TE2)
He may get upset if he ruins your parlay or prop bet but Stefon Diggs has not been ruining your fantasy lineup. Diggs has been a top-13 WR six times this year. The passing offense flows through him. He has seen double-digit targets in five of the seven games this season. He has a tough matchup against Carlton Davis III, as Davis is the 31st best cover corner according to PFF.com, but you don’t have to worry about that. Diggs will get his. Even if it is a down week for Diggs (like he had in Week 2, when he still produced 13 points in PPR), he won’t completely disappoint you. Start him as a solid WR1 this week.
Gabe Davis is still the second-receiving option for the Bills. He is out there for almost all of the Bills’ snaps. He is a great blocker and a solid route runner. He will be opposite Jamel Dean who rates as the 71st best cover corner. It’s a solid matchup for Davis who has had two down weeks. I’m willing to slide him into the WR3 slot based on the matchup and the team working to get him back on track.
There will be lots of talk about Dalton Kincaid this week. Dawson Knox is out for some time with a wrist injury that requires surgery. Kincaid is coming off the best performance of his rookie career with eight targets, all caught, for 75 yards. It looks like he will be playing more than slot receiver Khalil Shakir. However, it’s not the best matchup for Kincaid. The Buccaneers are giving up the 5th fewest points to tight ends right now. They have a good cover corner in Lavonte David who rates as the 29th best coverage safety. The Bucs aren’t going to just let Kincaid go off against them. I’m still willing to start him but I’m expecting him to be back into his TE2 range.
I can’t anymore with these intrusive ads. Very poor placement.