Game Info
Kickoff: Sunday, October 29, 4:25 EST
Location: Empower Field at Mile High, Denver, CO
Betting Odds: Chiefs -7.5, O/U 46.5 Total via PFF.com
Network: CBS
Writer: Matt Prendergast (@amazingmattyp on X/Twitter)
Kansas City Chiefs
Quarterback
Patrick Mahomes (Start, QB1 Always)
So, thanks to a delightful combo of Patrick Mahomes and an inept Green Bay Packers’ offense, we have a new renter living in the basement of the NFL’s passing defenses, with the Chargers dropping below the Broncos in yards per attempt and total yards given up (7.9 yards per attempt and 1860 total). Look for Pat to reset that board back to the one we’ve come to know and love this week, with Denver at the bottom. Please note they are still league dominators in passing touchdowns allowed at 16, so Denver can at least hold onto that with pride. Look, I have to type something in here, and you’re playing Mahomes no matter who he’s up against, just know this week should be another fantastic one for you. He threw for 306 and a touchdown the last time they played the Broncos which was….two weeks ago? Good scheduling.
Running Backs
Isiah Pacheco (Start, RB2), Clyde Edwards-Helaire (Sit), Jerick McKinnon (Sit)
Of the many running backs in the league proven to be at least semi-reliable RB2s, perhaps Isiah Pacheco is the RB2est of them all this season. He doesn’t face any competition for carries (Clyde Edward-Helaire has received 2-3 a game for the last month), and he sees regular action in the passing game – not a crazy amount, though in the past two weeks, he’s seen four targets against the Chargers and six against the Broncos. Last time against Denver, Isiah put up 62 yards on 16 carries and added 6-for-6 receiving for 36 yards in the air. Expect more of the same, as despite their win against the hapless Green Bay squad, the Broncos haven’t suddenly gotten better. CEH and Jerick McKinnon just don’t see enough usage to be on anybody’s fantasy team at this point.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
Travis Kelce (Start, TE1 Always), Rashee Rice (Start, WR3), Marquez Valdes-Scantling (Sit), Skyy Moore/Kadarius Toney/Mecole Hardman (Sit)
MVS! MVS! MVS! What a terrific game for Marquez Valdes-Scantling last week – 84 yards and a score and most importantly, reminding people he’s on the team! Great work, friend. Now to the reality – the five targets he saw last week (and converted on three of them), eclipsed his season-high by two, and most weeks he’s been at two total. They haven’t just discovered something – this is just who MVS is, and has been since his days in Green Bay. He will get you one or two games a year where he looks like he’s worth the money, but the rest of the time he’s just running routes and not worrying about participation. With that 84 yards last week, MVS now has a TOTAL of 200 yards receiving for the season. Don’t be fooled, he’s not a guy to count on for the rest of the season. Right beneath him on the Useless Fantasy Tree is the triumvirate of Skyy Moore, Kadarius Toney, and Mecole Hardman. Statistically, and efficiency-wise, these are all the same guy if I’m looking at my fantasy team. In any given week, one of these guys will unpredictably get a couple more targets than the other, and occasionally one will get a touchdown, but none are worth wringing your hands over.
To the high points: you’re playing Travis Kelce no matter what – he and Mahomes are two of the few absolute no-thinking-this-over starts you can have on a roster, enjoy that. Travis missed a game at the beginning of the year, and still stomps all over the rest of the Chiefs’ receivers in terms of targets and yards (59 for 525) and leads the team with four receiving touchdowns as well. He dropped 124 yards on the Broncos two weeks ago, and I can’t imagine why he won’t do the same again. As for Rashee Rice, he’s the one guy who stands out against the background palette of underperforming and often-disappearing Chiefs’ receiving corp. Rashee is second on the team in targets at 34 and doesn’t miss much. He has also scored a touchdown in two of the last three games, so it’s clear he’s becoming a reliable target for Mahomes, and he has a terrific matchup this week against the Broncos (his matchup advantage per PFF is a rock-solid 71.8). He’s not quite at the production level yet where I would be comfortable running him out at WR2, but the inevitability of ascension to that spot feels strong; it won’t be long.
Denver Broncos
Quarterback
Russell Wilson (Sit)
REMATCH ACTION! The last time Russell Wilson faced the juggernaut that is Kansas City, he punched out a…(flips through a few pages, clicks on multiple tabs, rubs eyes) 95-yard passing day, with two interceptions. And a touchdown! Last week against a significantly less impressive Green Bay secondary he notched, um, 194 yards, and also one touchdown. No picks though! That’s something!
After a decent first month this year, Russ has quickly devolved into the same husk of himself we all got to witness last year, with his ‘high point’ (if we can call it that) coming in the form of a 196-yard, two-touchdown outing against the Jets three weeks back – and that was in a loss. This is a bad matchup, and most likely another lost season for a guy we’re going to point at in five years and say ‘stuck around four years too long’. Then we’ll cut to the studio, where he and Phil Simms compete to see who can offer the most vanilla-flavored opinion each week. Don’t put Russ in your rotation; this team doesn’t have the capacity to function in its current version, and it doesn’t feel like Sean Payton even cares to try anymore.
Running Backs
Javonte Williams (Start, RB2), Jaleel McLaughlin (Sit, Flex), Samaje Perine (Drop)
I’m fully on board the Javonte Williams train after doubting him early this year – well, as fully on board as ‘play him as an RB2 this week’ can be. Granted, he hasn’t had a blowup game yet, but after watching him the past few weeks, it’s clear he’s running with confidence and quickness; that game is coming. This is a decent matchup – not great, but the Chiefs have given up six touchdowns and 741 yards on the ground this year. They’ve also been allowing 4.7 yards per carry during this first half of the season, and Denver has shown me the past two weeks that while there are many things they can’t accomplish in a functional manner, they can do a little run blocking and scheming.
Coming off his best game of the year (15 for 82), look for more usage for Williams as the Broncos should lean on what components are starting to work. In this vein of thought, I still like Jaleel McLaughlin in a flex spot if you’ve got the need. With only 34 carries on the year, he has ground out 236 yards (team leader Williams has a total of 272 on 63 carries). He’s absolutely the change-of-pace back here for now, but the sparks are there, and he does a lot with less opportunity. If you’ve got a fairly injury-free lineup, I’d sit Jaleel this week, but if you’re not in a six-team league and have a bunch of guys on IR like us normal folk, I could get behind running him in a FLEX spot and crossing your toes that he can punch out something better than the “7 for 30, 2 catches for 12 yards” line that he mustered the last time he saw the Chiefs.
In the past two weeks, Samaji Perine has seen a total of two carries and 5 receptions for 47 yards. No, thank you.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
Courtland Sutton (Start, WR2), Jerry Jeudy (Sit, Flex), Marvin Mims (Sit), Whoever is Lined Up at Tight End (Sit)
After a preseason and draft season which held a consistent logic that Courtland Sutton had probably taken a permanent step down in capabilities after injury two years back, he has instead become the one receiving option that can be relied on in Denver. Fact: Sutton has found the end zone in five of Denver’s seven games for far. He leads the team in targets (43) and yards (351). He’s not the flashiest pick, and there’s definitely a ceiling on what one man can accomplish in the face of Sean Payton and Russell Wilson’s ineptitude, but Sutton has the numbers to be playing weekly for your fantasy team.
Meanwhile, Marvin Mims, for all the fun and flash we’ve all been hoping for early in the year, has seen one total target in two weeks, didn’t catch that, and one rushing attempt for negative eleven yards. Potential can’t get a kid past being ignored. As a comparison, Samaje Perine, who I wouldn’t roster at this point, has received ten more targets than Mims this season. He got five more looks in the previous two weeks than the significantly more exciting Mims. Until something gets switched up there, Mims might not even be worth a roster spot.
That said, we’ve reached NFL trade deadline week, and the rumor mill is churning with Jerry Jeudy scuttlebutt yet again. Just in time to potentially increase that value, he checked in with his best performance since Week 2, going 5-for-5 with 64 yards. Not earth-quaking, and really not much more than his general mid-century yardage, and he still hasn’t seen the end zone…but he could get moved, and probably should for both parties’ best interests. Regardless of that conjecture, Jeudy pulled in a total of 14 yards’ worth of catches the previous week against this same Chiefs’ team and projects as a below-average matchup against this week’s cornerback contingent. By comparison, matchup ranks for both Sutton and Mims are mid-range to slightly above average. If you think Jerry might have one big game in him to lure in a potential bidder for his services, I suppose you could throw him in a FLEX spot, but personally, I wouldn’t bother. As for the tight ends, Greg Dulcich is on Injured Reserve, leaving Adam Trautman, Nate Adkins, and Chris Manhertz. Regardless of which hulking body can fit into the jersey, the Broncos don’t use them in the receiving plan. Nor should you.
I can’t anymore with these intrusive ads. Very poor placement.