Game Info
Kickoff: Sunday, December 15, 2024, 4:35 ET
Location: SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, California
Network: FOX
Writer: Chris Helle (@ChrisHelleQBL on Twitter)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Quarterback
Baker Mayfield: Start, low-end QB1
Baker overcame some early mistakes last week by throwing for 295 yards and 3 TDs in the win over the Raiders despite throwing 2 interceptions early on. This was his second straight game throwing 2 interceptions, and now he goes on the road to face the Chargers, who have the 6th highest interception rate and 8th highest sack rate in the league. At first glance, you may be thinking, “Well, the Chargers have a good defense, so Baker is going to have to throw the ball to keep this game competitive.” There’s some cause for caution for that rationale: Tampa Bay has the largest discrepancy between running the ball at home versus on the road. When they travel, the Buccaneers run the ball at a 9.8% higher rate than when they’re at home. When looking back at their previous games, the difficult matchup against Detroit was the game Baker threw his fewest pass attempts on the season (and the Bucs handed Detroit their only loss). Baker is the QB5, and he’s been playing phenomenally, but his first 8 weeks vary quite a bit from his last five games. Weeks 1-8 saw seven finishes as a top-10 fantasy QB with four games for over 300 yards and six games with 2+ passing TDs (the QB2 in that span). Weeks 9-14 have seen only two finishes as a top-10 fantasy QB with no 300+ yard games and two games with 2+ passing TDs (the QB21 in this span). There’s some overlap with Mike Evans being out between Weeks 8-10, but the point remains that Baker is not quite a “set and forget” player. He’s still a high-upside option and should be started over most QBs, but you may have a difficult decision on your hands this week if you have another high-end option on your roster.
Running Back
Bucky Irving: Start, RB2
Rachaad White: FLEX Option, RB3
Last week was a major disappointment for managers of Bucky Irving as he left the game early due to soreness in his back. This opened the door for Rachaad White to handle 17 carries that he took for 90 yards and a TD plus another receiving TD – the RB3 on the week. Bucky should be expected to return to action for this contest, meaning we’ll likely see another game of split workload. Running backs by committee are annoying for fantasy managers, but the Chargers’ defense has been slipping from their esteemed profile. They actually have a lower EPA/rush attempt than the Raiders and rank 23rd in yards per rush attempt allowed. The Chargers’ saving grace is that they’ve allowed the fewest rushing TDs in the NFL at only 6 TDs on the season. The nod in this backfield is given to Bucky because of how much more explosive of a runner he’s shown to be, and White’s production through the air may not be as efficient as the Chargers are 2nd in YAC EPA/attempt.
Wide Receiver
Mike Evans: Start, WR2
Sterling Shepard: Sit
Jalen McMillan: Sit
The streak of 1,000-yard seasons is in jeopardy for Mike Evans. If you have him on your roster, you’re starting him, given his explosive play-making ability. He only had 4 receptions last week yet still hit 69 yards – it’s far from a great day, but it goes to show he’s a consistent 12+ yards/reception receiver. He’s been targeted on 44% of his routes and averages 4.6 yards per route run against zone coverage (both highest in the league). The Chargers run zone coverages at the 3rd highest rate, so this could be a great matchup for him. Expectations for the other receivers in this room should be tempered, though, as the Chargers are the 3rd best pass defense behind only the Lions and Broncos. They have the 3rd hardest EPA/pass rate, 4th fewest net yards per pass attempt allowed, and are averaging less than 1 passing TD per game. Evans should be the only WR to consider starting in this one.
Tight End
Cade Otton: Streaming Option, TE2
Otton emerged during the middle portion of the season, but coinciding with the return of Mike Evans, has since cooled off. He’s now gone four straight games with 5 or fewer receptions, no TDs, and no finishes as a top-10 TE, averaging just over 7 fantasy points per game. It’s tough sledding to find a reliable TE this season outside of the obvious top-end players, so having a good track record and Baker at QB makes Cade Otton a potential streaming candidate. However, this is a difficult matchup on the road, and the target share has been less reliable over the last month.
Los Angeles Chargers
Quarterback
Justin Herbert: Start, QB1
Herbert suffered a minor contusion to his left leg in Sunday night’s loss to the Chiefs, but he’s expected to be good to go for this week. He’s thrown 14 touchdowns this season with only 1 interception and will likely be getting his stud rookie receiver, Ladd McConkey, back this week. It’s a great matchup at home as Tampa Bay is 31st against fantasy QBs and has allowed the 3rd most passing yards against them. Herbert may only be the QB17 on the season, but he’s logged four straight top-12 finishes when he plays at home. Along a similar timeline as J.K. Dobbins‘ injury, the Chargers have thrown the ball at the 10th-highest rate over the last 3 weeks. He may not have the 30-point ceiling of a few higher-end fantasy QBs, but this week sets up nicely for Herbert to provide your roster with a safely high enough floor.
Running Back
Gus Edwards: FLEX Option, RB3
Kimani Vidal: Sit
It was a devastating blow to the Chargers to lose Dobbins in Week 12, but we’ve now seen what this offense looks like in the two full games he’s been out. Gus Edwards was given a higher snap share in Week 13 but lost the edge in snaps to Kimani Vidal last week. It will likely continue to be a split backfield, which doesn’t bode well for managers of either player, as the Chargers are 23rd in yards per rush attempt. Tampa Bay’s defense is also slightly stronger against the rush than against the pass, so this isn’t exactly the best matchup to try to get a slice of. A slight edge is given to Edwards thanks to his role as the goal-line back, but both would likely be in the TD-dependent category.
Wide Receiver
Ladd McConkey: Start, WR2
Quentin Johnston: FLEX Option, WR3
Joshua Palmer: Sit
Ladd McConkey sat last week to rest his knee and shoulder ailments, which paved the way for Quentin Johnston and Joshua Palmer to see 7 and 9 targets, respectively. It was very reassuring for Johnston to have seemingly resolved his issue with dropping the ball and bringing in a TD, but there’s no question that Ladd is the number one target for Herbert. Johnston should continue to be involved with Will Dissly likely out, but Ladd’s role significantly limits Palmer’s opportunities. This is a very favorable matchup for these receivers as Tampa is a pass funnel – they’ve allowed the 8th-highest completion rate and rank 26th in EPA/pass attempt.
Tight End
Stone Smartt: Sit
The substitute for Dissly had a respectable game last week, bringing in all 3 of his targets for 54 yards. The return of Ladd will likely limit his opportunities, though, so look elsewhere for a more reliable TE in the playoffs.