Game Info
Kickoff: Sunday, December 15th, 4:25 ET
Location: State Farm Stadium, Glendale, AZ
Network: CBS
Writer: Michael James
Hey gang, Michael James here filling in this week. Today, we’re looking at the New England Patriots traveling to the Arizona Cardinals. The Cardinals are -270 favorites, and the over/under is 45.5, so let’s see who’s set up for a day as we prepare for the fantasy playoffs!
New England Patriots
Quarterback
Drake Maye: Sit
Drake Maye just had his second-best fantasy game of the year before entering the bye last week and hopes to carry that over to this week against a Cardinal defense towards the bottom in QB Pressure rate with about 18%. This will be a welcome sight, as the Patriots have allowed him to be sacked at least three times in 4 of their last five games. Arizona is actually in the top half of fantasy points allowed to the quarterback position. Maye has only achieved 18 or more points twice in his last six starts, averaging one touchdown and one interception in each game. His floor is sustained by his ability to pick up a few points on the ground with his feet, but it’s still too low of a floor for me. Maye is a QB2 in deep and Superflex leagues. Otherwise, I’d look elsewhere if you made it to the playoffs streaming QBs.
Running Back
Rhamondre Stevenson: FLEX Option, RB3
I know Arizona just got demolished by the running game last week, but before that, they were pretty stout, having given up less than 80 yards on the ground in 4 of their previous 5 games before whatever that was last week against the Seahawks. But it was also the second time facing them this season, and Seattle knew them very well at that point. The Cardinals are getting their two interior DTs some more time to recover from their injuries and will find it a bit easier this time around as the Patriots are at the bottom of run-block win rates for the 2024 season. Rhamondre Stevenson‘s last performance was the first time he achieved 4 yards per carry this season since Week 5. He has not found the end zone since Week 9 and is very hit-or-miss, depending on his work in the passing game. Last week, he had three catches, but the week before that, he had zero. Add into the mix the fact that Antonio Gibson has been the more efficient back in the two most recent games, as he has been taking more snap count share over the past few weeks. Therefore, I’m tempering expectations for Stevenson.
Wide Receiver
DeMario Douglas: FLEX Option, WR4
Kendrick Bourne: FLEX Option, WR4
Neither receiver has gone for over 100 yards this season, but they have at least been consistent of late. DeMario Douglas has brought in between 6-11 points in each of his last five games for a 9-point-per-game average. Kendrick Bourne has steadily increased his snap count since coming back after Week 10. He has brought in 13 targets over those three games, including a touchdown on five receptions back in week 11. However, you probably made the playoffs despite them rather than because of the Patriots receiving corps. Now that bye weeks are gone, things only get worse from here on out in regards to the upcoming schedule.
Tight End
Hunter Henry: Start, TE1
Ah, so that’s who has been catching all the balls from Maye. Hunter Henry has seen an 80+% snap count share since Week 7, and outside of an outlier performance in Chicago, he has had at least 5 receptions in six of those last seven games. The only thing holding him back from being a true top-10 TE is the red zone work, as that seems to be going to fellow TE Austin Hooper, who has a touchdown in each of his last two games. I can see benching Henry if you have been carrying multiple TEs for depth, as Arizona is rather stingy against the position, but otherwise, Henry is a solid start for Week 15, as he has proven to be an integral part of the passing game for New England.
D/ST
I write the weekly D/ST streaming article for QBList, so I’ll throw my two cents in on what I think about the position in fantasy in this game.
Patriots: Sit
Kyler Murray has decided it’s time to start dropping dimes to the other team with an interception in every game since the bye week, totaling five picks in the past three games. However, this is the first time New England has strung together two positive performances since Week 5. The Cardinals have too many offensive weapons that are capable of going off.
Arizona Cardinals
Quarterback
Kyler Murray: Start, QB1
Speaking of Kyler Murray, he now has a 3 to 5 touchdown to interception ratio since the bye week in Week 11. On the other hand, he’s gone over 250 yards passing in each of those games. He’s maintained a 65% completion rate while throwing the ball 37+ times in each of those games. The Patriots entered their bye week, allowing ten touchdowns to the quarterback position in their last three games. This New England defense joins the Cardinals at the bottom with a sub-20 % QB Pressure rate as well. Murray has gained 64 yards with his feet in his two recent games. All this is to say that I’m high on Murray for this game.
Running Back
James Conner: Start, RB1
James Conner is getting it done for managers this season with double-digit fantasy points in all but one game (9.9 in that game…) after Week 6. He’s been a rockstar at home, and I don’t see that changing for this game. He’s been put in at least ten fantasy points as a floor (yes, I’m rounding that aforementioned score in the previous sentence) in all but two games this season! And it’s not entirely his fault either, as his two bad games were in Michigan and Wisconsin, and we all know Cardinals are supposed to migrate south in the fall, not travel north!
Wide Receiver
Marvin Harrison Jr.: FLEX Option, WR3
Michael Wilson: FLEX Option, WR4
One of these two receivers will catch a touchdown on Sunday. Spoiler: it’ll be the one that isn’t on your team, sorry! New England’s secondary is banged up but should be on the mend after getting an extra week to rest. This Patriot pass defense is a bit up and down as they are weak on the rush, coming in the bottom 10 in allowed average depth as well as air yards to target. However, they are one of the best in the league in coverage, with the second-fewest yards allowed after the catch. Over the last three games, Marvin Harrison Jr. is averaging over 8 targets per game. Unfortunately, he’s bringing less than 50% of them. Still, since the volume is so high, even 50% is enough to provide a decent floor. Michael Wilson is also doing well for himself, averaging double-digit fantasy points on average in their three games since their bye.
Tight End
Trey McBride: Start, TE1
After pouring over hours and hours of film and analysis, I’ve sweated it out and concluded that you should, indeed, start the tight end that is ranked #3 overall on the season despite not scoring a single touchdown all year long. This hard-hitting analysis is why you read this far down, right?
(Trey McBride did make the injury report for Dudesday, but the knee is reported to not be a serious issue)
D/ST
Cardinals: Start
The Patriot offense has not performed well on the road except for Week 1, where they had to remind America that you can’t ever trust the Bengals. Will that change after their bye week? Probably not, New England has allowed 11 sacks over their last three weeks and turned the ball over five times in that same stretch. I maintain Arizona got roughed up because the re-match of division rivalry every season usually brings higher volatility to the board as your opponent is very familiar with you. Before that game, the Cardinal defense had been averaging double-digit fantasy points in four straight.