Game Info
Kickoff: Sunday, December 15, 2024, 4:25 ET
Location: Ford Field, Detroit, Michigan
Network: CBS
Writer: Matt LaMarca (@MattLaMarca on Twitter)
Buffalo Bills
Quarterback
Josh Allen: Start, QB1
You heard it here first: start Josh Allen this week vs. the Lions. I just have a good feeling about that guy. In all seriousness, Allen seems likely to take home the first MVP of his career as long as he can avoid injury. He turned in a masterpiece last week vs. the Bills, racking up six total touchdowns, 342 passing yards, and 82 rushing yards in a loss to the Rams. He finished with more than 50 fantasy points, which was the best mark by a quarterback in any game this season. In fact, it’s the first time this year that any quarterback has broken 40 fantasy points, let alone 50. The Lions are a tough matchup on paper, but their defense has taken a bit of a step back with all the injuries they’re dealing with defensively. Allen is clearly startable this week, and he’s in contention for the top spot at the position.
Running Back
James Cook: Start, RB2
Ty Johnson: Sit
Ray Davis: Sit
After Allen, things get a little dicey for the Bills. They have three running backs that all factor into the equation: James Cook, Ty Johnson, and Ray Davis. Cook is the clear top option in that group, and he’s popped off for some big games this season. He has two finishes as a top-three scorer at the position — including one at No. 1 — and three others as a top-10 finisher. However, he’s more of a “boom-or-bust” option than a steady one. He’s handled just 53% of the team’s rushing attempts this season, and Allen is always a threat to steal a rushing touchdown near the goal line. His rushing share has also dipped in recent weeks, so he’s a bottom-end RB2 in this matchup.
Johnson and Davis are stealing enough work away from Cook to be a problem but not enough to have any standalone value of their own. Of the two, Johnson is the better option because of his role as the team’s pass-catching back. That gives him just a smidge of upside, which he put on display with a receiving touchdown last week. Still, neither is really in the starting conversation.
Wide Receiver
Khalil Shakir: FLEX Option, WR3
Amari Cooper: FLEX Option, WR4
Keon Coleman: Sit
The team acquired Amari Cooper from the Browns before the trade deadline, and he was expected to take over as the team’s top receiver. That said, that hasn’t been the case. Khalil Shakir has maintained his spot atop the pecking order, making him the team’s top fantasy receiver vs. the Lions. Shakir doesn’t bring a ton of upside to the table, but he’s been a steady producer all season long. He’s been targeted on 25% of his routes run, and his route rate has been at 80% or higher in four straight games. He’s ultimately finished as a top-25 scorer at the position in three of those contests, so he’s safely in the FLEX conversation vs. the Lions.
Cooper is also coming off his most promising outing with the Bills. He’s still being used as a part-time player — he had just a 63% route participation in Week 14 — but he was targeted on a whopping 54% of his routes run. The result was a 38% target share overall, which was easily his top mark with the Bills. He has a wide range of outcomes, but he has enough of a track record that we should take notice when his workload changes. Last week might have been that point.
Finally, Keon Coleman was one of the Bills’ top receivers to start the year, but he’s been out of the lineup since Week 9. He may return this week vs. the Lions, but it’s impossible to know what his role will look like. He was barely hanging on to relevance before the team acquired Cooper, so he’s unstartable at this point.
Tight End
Dalton Kincaid: Streaming Option, TE2
Dawson Knox: Sit
Like Coleman, Kincaid has also been out of the lineup of late. However, he returned to practice in a full capacity this week, which means he should almost certainly return to the lineup vs. the Lions. Kincaid hasn’t had the type of season that fantasy players were hoping for, but he’s still been a solid piece of the Bills’ passing attack. He’s been targeted on 25% of his routes run this season, which is identical to Shakir’s mark. He’s not a slam-dunk starter at the position, but he could be a viable fill-in.
If Kincaid is back, Dawson Knox can be comfortably returned to the waiver wire. He’s provided no usefulness when Kincaid has been healthy this season, and he was even disappointing when Kincaid was out.
Detroit Lions
Quarterback
Jared Goff: Streaming Option, QB2
Goff is arguably having his best season as a professional, and he’s propelled the Lions to a 12-1 start and first place in the NFC. That said, he’s had to make the most out of the least. The Lions are throwing the ball at one of the lowest rates in the league; they’re fifth in the league in pass frequency and have a -5.1% Pass Rate Over Expectation. That makes Goff more of a high-end QB2 than a low-end QB1. He’s 12th at the position in fantasy points per game, and he’s seemingly alternated between monster performances and busts. He has four finishes as a top-five scorer at the position and seven weeks as QB18 or worse; he’s only been between those two thresholds once all year. That volatility makes him tough to trust against the Bills, who, before last week, had been a solid defensive team. They’ve still allowed the sixth-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks, so I think it’s reasonable to leave Goff on the bench if you have a better option.
Running Back
Jahmyr Gibbs: Start, RB1
David Montgomery: Start, RB2
What Goff loses in value from the Lions’ offensive philosophy is gained by their running backs. Both Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery have been reliable fantasy starters all season, with both currently ranking in the top 1o in terms of half-PPR scoring per game.
Gibbs and Montgomery have split the workload almost exactly down the middle this season. Montgomery has the slightest of edges in terms of carry share, but Gibbs makes up for it with his work in the passing game. Montgomery has had more opportunities from inside the five-yard line, but Gibbs is the more explosive athlete. Ultimately, Gibbs’ skill set has proven to be more valuable for fantasy football, but both guys are as safe as it gets. There’s more than enough volume to go around to satisfy both players, even in a tough matchup vs. the Bills.
Wide Receiver
Amon-Ra St. Brown: Start, WR1
Jameson Williams: FLEX Option, WR3
Tim Patrick: Sit
Amon-Ra St. Brown hasn’t been quite as good for fantasy purposes as he was last year. That makes sense. The Lions are throwing the ball less frequently, so St. Brown simply hasn’t had as many opportunities to catch passes. He’s averaging 1.2 fewer receptions and nearly 30 fewer receiving yards per game than he did last year, though his nine touchdowns have helped mitigate some of that difference. St. Brown is coming off a clunker last week, but he still leads the team with a 27% target share for the year. He may not be the same no-doubt WR1 like he was in 2023-24, but he still brings more than enough to the table for fantasy purposes.
St. Brown is the “move the chains” guy in the Lions’ offense, while Jameson Williams provides the big plays. He has just a 19% target share when he’s been in the lineup this season, but he leads the team in air yards. That makes him a bit more volatile, but his targets are trending in the right direction. He’s had a 20% target share since returning to the lineup in Week 10, which is only 4% lower than St. Brown over that time frame. He’s finished as a top-30 receiver in three of those five outings, so he’s in play in what should be a high-scoring affair.
Tim Patrick caught two touchdowns last week, and he has proven to be a competent receiver during his time with the Broncos and Lions. Unfortunately, there just aren’t enough targets to go around to satisfy everyone. He’s a bench option vs. the Bills.
Tight End
Sam LaPorta: Start, TE1
LaPorta is right on the TE1/TE2 border, but he’s done enough recently to put himself back on the right side of that equation. He hasn’t had the type of season that was expected after dominating as a rookie, but he’s finished inside the top 10 at the position in four of his past six games. His target share also sits at 20% over that time frame, which is good enough to warrant starting on one of the best offenses in football.