Game Info
Kickoff: December 15, 2024, 1:00 pm ET
Location: NRG Stadium in Houston
Network: CBS
Writer: Geoff Ulrich (@thefantasygrind on Twitter)
Miami Dolphins
Quarterback
Tua Tagovailoa: Start, QB1
Tua Tagovailoa is in a great matchup this week. The Texans haven’t been great against the pass of late, and their defense has now allowed multiple passing TDs in four of their last five games. For his part, Tagovailoa has played well since coming back from injury. While he relied on garbage time to post big numbers vs the Packers, he did take advantage of a wounded Jets secondary last week to post his second 300+ yard game in a row and two TDs.
Overall, even if the Texans do represent a slight step up on the opponent, he’s averaging 2.75 TDs and 325 passing yards per game over his last four starts and is in a dome this week. No need to overthink this one, just start him.
Running Back
De’Von Achane: Start, RB1
De’Von Achane is the primary back for the Dolphins. They haven’t been nearly as effective running the ball this season as they were last year, but Achane’s incredible receiving skillset sets him apart and makes him a must-start in PPR leagues. Last week, he played on 81% of the snaps with Raheem Mostert out, and if he sits again, he is likely to see similar usage.
If anything, his output from last week (6 receptions, a TD, and 15.9 FP) should be seen as the floor this week, with his ceiling being much higher.
Wide Receiver
Tyreek Hill: Start, WR1
Jaylen Waddle: Start, WR2
Tyreek Hill had a great rebound week against the Jets. He took advantage of injuries to break free for his fourth TD in five games. Hill’s 31% target share last week was his highest since Week 5, and he’ll face a Texans secondary that has allowed the second-most TDs to opposing WRs this season, it’s wheels up once again.
Jaylen Waddle is also in a nice spot and should be viewed as a solid WR3 or WR2 start. He’s getting targeted more of late as the targets they were once feeding to TE Jonnu Smith have seemingly been rotated back to the WR spot. Waddle’s not going to get primary coverage and could avoid Derek Stingley this week, so his upside is similar to Hill’s, albeit with less chance of a TD.
Tight End
Jonnu Smith: Start, TE1
Jonnu Smith‘s hot run came to a bit of a halt last week as he ended the day with just a 9% target share. It still worked out OK if you started him, as he did find the end zone and produced 11.9 FP, but he needed some targets in OT just to get to 44 yards. If you’ve been rolling with Smith this long and don’t have a more viable option, then rolling the dice on him in Week 15 is fine. However, it is time to be wary with Smith, who might be on the verge of losing his previously enormous target share to two elite WRs who now both seem healthy.
Houston Texans
Quarterback
CJ Stroud: Start, QB1
I don’t really know what to say about CJ Stroud at this point. He’s in a really solid matchup against the Dolphins defense that just allowed Aaron Rodgers to throw for 339 yards and is terrible at getting pressure (1.8 sacks per game). That alone should help Stroud, who has been getting sacked at an alarming rate all year.
With his top two WRs healthy, I see this week as a potential breakout spot. He’s not without risk (big risk), but I rate him as a low-end QB1 and a name to potentially roll the dice on if you are already holding a Texans WR (and looking to stack a WR with his QB). This game has plenty of upside, and getting in two big pieces of the Texans passing game could produce magic.
Running Back
Joe Mixon: Start, RB1
Joe Mixon is the easiest name to write up in this game. He has no competition for carries, and with the Texans off a bye will only come off if he needs a drink or the bathroom. The matchup on the ground for Mixon isn’t the greatest, but he’ll stay involved as a receiver and get the goal-line touches.
The only way you’d consider sitting him is if you own some form of Barkley and another elite RB.
Wide Receiver
Nico Collins: Start, WR1
Tank Dell: FLEX Option, WR3
The Texans WRs have to be licking their lips after what they saw last week. The Dolphins’ secondary cratered under pressure from two elite WRs in Davante Adams and Garrett Wilson, and now will have their work cut out for them again with Tank Dell and Nico Collins.
Collins may be set to go completely off after a couple of decent games in a row. He’s posted target shares of 34% and 30% in his last two games. That said, I love this spot as a sneaky place to start Dell. He’s been disappointing for fantasy too many weeks, but the Dolphins use a lot of Cover Three, which tends to allow a lot of passes over the middle and open field on short catch and runs. Dell is still the clear number two and could go off in this spot for a big play or two.
Tight End
Dalton Schultz: Streaming Option, TE2
This is a great matchup for Dalton Schultz. The Dolphins have allowed some massive games to opposing TEs, and Schultz had seven targets in his last game. I see Dell as the higher upside option if you are going to try and hit on one of these secondary Texans receivers, but certainly, if you are looking for a homerun at TE and don’t like your other options, Schultz has some juice this week.
His TD upside is minimal, but he could push for 5 catches and 60+ yards against a defense that often allows players to run wild on short underneath throws.