Game Info
Kickoff: December 15, 2024, 1:00 pm ET
Location: Huntington Bank Field in Cleveland, Ohio
Network: CBS or KCTV local
Writer: Geoff Ulrich (@thefantasygrind on Twitter)
Kansas City Chiefs
Quarterback
Patrick Mahomes: Start, QB1
The Browns haven’t been a terrible opponent for fantasy QBs. They allowed Russell Wilson a pair of scores through the air last week and, before that, allowed multiple passing TDs in five straight games between Weeks 6 and 11.
This isn’t the Patrick Mahomes we used to know for fantasy purposes, so he’s on the lower end of QB1s this week, but he’s still someone you should feel relatively comfortable rolling out. The Chargers game was a bit of a letdown, but they are great at taking the air out of the ball. The Browns have a gunslinger at QB who can turn games into shootouts quickly and could be able to find some big plays that push Mahomes into a few more dropbacks.
I don’t expect a banner day, but certainly, he’s got multiple TD upside with the potential to push for 250+ through the air.
Running Back
Isiah Pacheco: Start, RB2
Kareem Hunt: Sit
Isiah Pacheco saw his snap count rise to 48% in Week 14 after playing just 33% on his return in Week 13. He also doubled his carry count (7 to 14) and saw four targets in the passing game. Like Mahomes, he suffered from a tough matchup against the Chargers, but he should be in line for more snaps this week in his third game back.
The Browns haven’t allowed a 100-yard rusher all season, but they turn the ball over on offense at a high rate, and that’s led to some great field position for opposing RBs to cash in on. Over their last seven games, they’ve now allowed seven rushing TDs to opposing RBs and have now allowed the fifth-most rushing TDs to the position on the season. Pacheco likely won’t push for a ton of yards, but certainly, the opportunity for a multiple-TD game is there.
Kareem Hunt is all but dead in this offense. He saw his snap count dwindle again last week and took just five carries. He may still get used in the red zone like he did last week (which is annoying if you have Pacheco), but his standalone value is next to nil at the moment.
Wide Receiver
DeAndre Hopkins: Start, WR2
Xavier Worthy: FLEX Option, WR4
DeAndre Hopkins saw nine targets for the second game in a row and posted a 24% target share in Week 14, his highest since joining the Chiefs. He’s slowly becoming more reliable for fantasy, although you would like to see a better connection rate. The good news is that the Chiefs clearly value him in the red zone, where he was used again last week and came down with his second TD in three games.
This Browns secondary isn’t scaring anyone, either. They’ve allowed the fifth-most receiving TDs to the WR position, and outside of Denzel Ward don’t have a ton of talent. It wouldn’t be shocking to see Hopkins score again this week and potentially (if he and Mahomes get on a better page) post his best week as a Chief.
Xavier Worthy continues to be a “worthy” flex option but also a player you can’t rely on to save your lineup on a tough week. He caught five balls last week for the second week in a row but continues to be a mainly short-yardage option, which is frustrating because of his open-field speed. With Hopkins now taking more red zone and downfield targets, he needs a broken play to hit his ceiling.
Tight End
Travis Kelce: Start, TE1
I’ll start by stating the same thing I did last week: If you own Travis Kelce, you are starting him.
The Browns haven’t allowed a ton of big games to opposing TEs, but as a defense, they are a better matchup than the Chargers, which makes this a spot for Kelce to potentially bounce back after a slower Week 14. Kelce will be involved regardless of the score, but if Jameis Winston can turn this game into a shootout like he did against the Broncos, Kelce has as much upside as any TE in fantasy this week.
Cleveland Browns
Quarterback
Jameis Winston: Start, QB1
Jameis Winston has been an unlikely hero this season, and if you’ve been riding his hot stretch for fantasy purposes, there is little reason to take your foot off the pedal now. Over his last three games, he’s put together two boom performances (26.6 against the Saints and 33.0 against the Broncos) and two semi-busts (13.5 and 15.3 vs the Steelers x2).
The good news is that if you have Winston as your starter, he’s not facing the Steelers this week, and the Chiefs have hardly been a strong pass defense of late. They got lucky in not having to face Ladd McConkey last week but have still allowed 7.6 yards per attempt over their last three games, the seventh-worst mark in the league over that span.
I rank both QBs pretty similar for fantasy in this game and even give a slight lean to Winston for the simple fact he’s developed a great rapport with elite receivers like David Njoku and Jerry Jeudy as of late.
Running Back
Nick Chubb: FLEX Option, RB2/3 Borderline
Jerome Ford: Sit
Nick Chubb has been frustratingly losing snaps to Jerome Ford over the last couple of games but remains the Browns’ main early-down back. He has started to break free more in the run game of late and did have a couple of nice runs against the Steelers. This situation is pretty volatile week-to-week as Kevin Stefanski has shown he’s perfectly fine dialing back Chubb’s snaps and giving Ford more work if they get behind.
Unfortunately, Ford doesn’t do enough work in the passing game to be viable himself, but with Chubb still getting most of, if not all, of the inside the five carries, he’s still got standalone value. It’s not the best matchup, and he is TD-dependent, but the Browns’ offense has been better under Winston, so while I don’t see Chubb as a must-start, he’s certainly got low-end RB2 appeal.
Wide Receiver
Jerry Jeudy: Start, WR1
Elijah Moore: FLEX Option, WR3
Cedric Tillman: FLEX Option, WR3
Jerry Jeudy remains the top option in this offense and now gets a great matchup against the Chiefs, who have regressed as a passing defense over the last month or so. Kansas City has allowed at least one receiving TD to a WR over each of their last five games and now faces off against a pair of solid open-field receivers in both Jeudy and Elijah Moore.
Jeudy’s rise in value this year has been something to watch, and the fact he was able to go for 65 yards and a TD last week, despite the horrible matchup against the Steelers, showcases the fact he’s become a must-start every week. However, with the Chiefs on tap, Elijah Moore has good value this week as well. While he remains the second or third wheel in this offense most weeks, the Chiefs’ defense should funnel the Browns toward the pass and give Moore a chance to earn a few more targets than he did vs the Steelers.
It is possible that Cedric Tillman returns this week, which could change the targeting a bit. I don’t anticipate Jeudy being affected much by his presence, but it would make me reconsider relying on Moore. Tillman on his own would be a boom or bust play since it’s hard to know how much he’ll play. It’s a great matchup for the second-year player, but he’s not someone I’d want to rely on unless I had no other options.
Tight End
David Njoku: Start, TE1
Njoku has become a must-start in PPR leagues thanks to Winston valuing his humongous wingspan in the short passing game. His 33% target share from last week led the team, and he’s in a great spot to potentially rack up a few yards thanks to the matchup with the Chiefs, who have allowed the second-most fantasy points to opposing TEs.
Njoku is an easy start and likely has a higher upside this week than his counterpart on the other side, who may not have as many chances to earn targets as Njoku.