Game Info
Kickoff: Saturday, December 21, 2024, 1:00 ET
Location: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, Missouri
Network: NBC
Writer: Matt LaMarca (@MattLaMarca on Twitter)
Houston Texans
Quarterback
C.J. Stroud: Sit, QB2
C.J. Stroud turned in one of the best rookie seasons in the history of the quarterback position, but he has been unable to duplicate that success in his second year. He’s averaged just 232 passing yards per game after leading the league with 273.9 last season, and he has just 17 touchdown passes in his 14 starts. Overall, he’s merely QB25 in terms of fantasy points per game, and he hasn’t finished inside the top 10 at the position since all the way back in Week 4.
The Chiefs’ defense has taken a step backward this season — particularly against the pass — but they’ve still been a below-average matchup for quarterbacks. It’s simply not possible to trust Stroud in one-QB leagues at the moment, and he’s not even particularly appealing in Superflex formats. He’s somewhere around QB20 in the Week 16 rankings.
Running Back
Joe Mixon: Start, RB1
While the Texans’ passing attack has struggled this season, the run game has flourished. Joe Mixon is No. 2 at the position in terms of fantasy points per game, trailing only Saquon Barkley. He’s averaged just under 19 fantasy points per game in half-PPR formats, and he has some of the best utilization in football. He’s handled 78% of the Texans’ rushing attempts when he’s been in the lineup this season, and he’s also been a big factor in the passing game. Mixon has at least six targets in three straight games, and he’s had a target share of at least 16% in each contest. That’s an elite figure for a running back: only Alvin Kamara and Christian McCaffrey have been above 16% for the season.
Unfortunately, the matchup isn’t quite as good for Mixon. The Chiefs have historically been weak against the run, but they’ve been significantly improved in that area this season. They’re fifth in rush defense EPA, and they’ve allowed the fewest fantasy points to opposing RBs this season. Mixon is still a no-doubt RB1 for fantasy purposes, but he’s more of a low-end RB1 than a high-end one.
Wide Receiver
Nico Collins: Start, WR1
Tank Dell: FLEX Option, WR4
Despite Stroud underperforming, it has had minimal impact on Nico Collins. He’s been one of the best receivers in fantasy when on the field this season, ranking second at the position in fantasy points per game. He’s commanded 26% of the Texans’ targets and 38% of their air yards, and he’s seen a whopping 67% of their end zone targets. His touchdown upside saved what would’ve otherwise been a dismal performance last week. He had just four catches for 17 yards, but two of them found the paint. Collins should revert to a more traditional stat line vs. the Chiefs, making him a high-end WR1.
Tank Dell is more of a wild card. He was expected to be an every-week starter at the position this season, especially once Stefon Diggs went down with an injury. Unfortunately, that has not been the case. He hasn’t been nearly as involved as expected — his target share sits at just 13% over his past three outings — and he hasn’t displayed the same big-play upside he did as a rookie. At this point, Dell is more of a desperation flex play than a reliable starter. You can hopefully do a bit better in the fantasy semifinals.
Tight End
Dalton Schultz: Streaming Option, TE2
Dalton Schultz has had decent involvement for the Texans this season; it just hasn’t led to much actual production. However, he is at least trending in the right direction. He ran a route on 91% of the team’s dropbacks last week, which was his highest mark of the season. His target share has increased to 17% over his past four outings, and he’s been at 22% in two of them. Schultz has managed to crack the top 10 at the position in scoring in just one of those outings, but the utilization is good enough that you can consider him as a streamer if you’re desperate. The Chiefs have allowed the fifth-most fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends, so the matchup is at least a good one.
Kansas City Chiefs
Quarterback
Patrick Mahomes: Sit, QB2
The Chiefs stand out as a bit of a nightmare for fantasy purposes at the moment. We’re still unsure about who is going to get the start at quarterback, though all signs currently point toward Patrick Mahomes. The team received positive news about his ankle after testing, and he is reportedly pushing to play vs. the Texans. It remains to be seen if that happens, but Mahomes typically gets his way (as he should).
However, should you start Mahomes in your fantasy lineups? If you have a viable alternative, I would lean toward no. For starters, this hasn’t been the same “Patrick Mahomes” that we’ve come to expect in years past. He’s merely QB12 in fantasy points per game, and he’s having his worst statistical season in virtually every category across the board. His mobility could also be significantly impacted on Saturday, and there’s also the chance that he is forced to leave the game early. Ultimately, I have him ranked outside the top 15 at the position currently, which means you can probably do a bit better in one-QB leagues. Mahomes is still the best football player on the planet, but he’s just not performing at that level for fantasy purposes.
Running Back
Isiah Pacheco: FLEX Option, RB3
Kareem Hunt: Sit, RB4
Samaje Perine: Sit
Speaking of nightmares, the Chiefs’ backfield has evolved into a full-on committee with the return of Isiah Pacheco. He was operating as the team’s clear bell-cow back before getting injured, and Kareem Hunt picked up the mantle in his absence. Pacheco has a slight edge in carries and snaps since returning to the lineup three weeks ago — he has 49% of the team’s rushing attempts, Hunt is at 36% — but the two players split the carries exactly down the middle in their last outing (38% apiece). That’s not ideal for fantasy purposes, especially with Samaje Perine stealing valuable pass-catching opportunities on third down.
Pacheco is still the most talented back in Kansas City, and he will likely resume his primary role at some point before the start of the playoffs. That could happen this week vs. the Texans, but it’s far from a guarantee. His upside keeps him in the flex conversation, especially with Mahomes potentially playing at less than 100%, but the other two KC backs aren’t startable.
Wide Receiver
DeAndre Hopkins: FLEX Option, WR4
Xavier Worthy: FLEX Option, WR4
Hollywood Brown: Sit
It’s pretty wild that there is no slam-dunk must-start for the Chiefs at any position but tight end. This has historically been one of the top offenses in football, but they’re currently outside the top 10 in both yards and points per game. DeAndre Hopkins was acquired at the trade deadline to give the team another option at receiver, but he’s been used sparingly in Kansas City. He hasn’t been deployed as an every-down player, running a route on just 56% of the team’s dropbacks. He is a frequent target when on the field — he’s been targeted on 24% of his routes run — but the result is a subpar 17% target share overall. That’s not quite what you’re looking for from a starting fantasy receiver.
Xavier Worthy is on the field at a much higher rate, but we haven’t seen the upside we expected from the rookie speedster. He scored two touchdowns in his first professional contest and ran the fastest 40-yard dash in NFL history, but that hasn’t translated to many big plays at the NFL level. However, Worthy did see a season-high 11 targets last week, and he added three carries, 30 yards, and a touchdown on the ground. He still barely managed to crack the top 30 at the position in scoring, but his role may be growing as we approach the playoffs.
The return of Hollywood Brown would only further complicate matters. He has missed the entire season with an injury but has returned to practice this week. Andy Reid told reporters there’s a chance he would suit up on Saturday, which would make this receiving corps even more volatile. It’s impossible to trust Brown in his first game of the year, but his presence would be a downgrade for the rest of the Chiefs’ pass-catchers.
Tight End
Travis Kelce: Start, TE1
Noah Gray: Sit, TE2
It’s been a weird year for Travis Kelce. He’s managed just two receiving touchdowns, which is three fewer than backup TE Noah Gray. That has capped his upside, though his involvement on a week-to-week basis remains among the best in football. Since Rashee Rice went down with an injury, Kelce has posted an elite 27% target share. He’s the clear No. 1 option for Mahomes, and even in a down year, that still means something. Kelce has been quite recently, but he’s still TE7 for the year on a per-game basis.
Speaking of Gray, has he reached the point where you can start him in fantasy? I wouldn’t go that far, but it’s pretty close. He’s posted a respectable 14% target share over his past five outings, and he’s finished as a top-10 scorer at the position in three of them. He hasn’t finished outside the top 20 in any of those outings, so he’s deployable if you’re stuck at the position. However, if the touchdown-scoring ever dries up, he’s not bringing much to the table in terms of yards and receptions.