Game Info
Kickoff: Sunday, December 22, 2024, 1:00 ET
Location: Solder Field, Chicago, Illinois
Network: FOX
Writer: Chris Helle (@ChrisHelleQBL on Twitter)
Detroit Lions
Quarterback
Jared Goff: Start, QB1
Goff is coming off his biggest game of the year in the loss to Buffalo last week, going for nearly 500 yards through the air and 5 TDs. Since throwing 5 INTs against Houston in Week 10, Goff’s now thrown 14 TDs to only 1 INT and is the QB2 in this five-game stretch behind only Josh Allen. Within this span of games is also Detroit’s first matchup against Chicago – the Thanksgiving Day blunder that lost Matt Eberflus his job. Goff was the QB18 that week after putting up 17 points via 220 yards + 2 TDs, but that was on a short week, and the Lions ran for nearly 200 yards on the ground. David Montgomery was given 21 carries in that game, and now that he’s out for the season, Dan Campbell may lean a little more into the passing game to lighten the workload on Jahmyr Gibbs. The matchup between Detroit’s offensive passing EPA/play against Chicago’s defensive EPA/play against the pass is the 3rd biggest differential across this week’s slate of games. In fact, the Bears’ defense has allowed the 2nd highest net yards gained per pass attempt against them behind only Jacksonville. Goff doesn’t provide any fantasy value on the ground, but this could easily turn into another big game through the air for him.
Running Back
Jahmyr Gibbs: Start, RB1
Craig Reynolds: Sit
Perhaps the biggest news coming out of Week 15 is David Montgomery‘s torn MCL that will end his season. Dan Campbell even said in a press conference that he hopes Gibbs is ready for the increased workload; however, all signs pointing in the same direction are grounds for a hint of skepticism. After this past weekend, Detroit has over 20 players on IR and is still a heavy favorite to make a deep playoff push. These last few games have major implications, with the Lions, Eagles, and Vikings all at the top of the NFC at 12-2 and fighting for the first-round bye plus home-field advantage throughout the postseason. Detroit has run the ball on 47.7% of their plays (6th highest rate in the NFL), but that rate has dipped to 37% over their last three games (24th), including only 20% of plays against Buffalo last week (32nd). Granted, last week was a shootout, but this shows their willingness and ability to be productive primarily through the air. The snap counts for Jahmyr Gibbs will undoubtedly increase in Montgomery’s absence, and he’s already the RB3 on the season despite a split workload, so he’s a must-start from here on out regardless – but temper your expectations given the possibility that the Lions pass the ball a little more, or even sprinkle in more of Craig Reynolds than you would like. They’ll be driven harder to get that 1-seed given their injury list, and also have to ensure they don’t lose another key piece of their offense that would decimate them if he were to also go down.
Wide Receiver
Amon-Ra St. Brown: Start, WR1
Jameson Williams: FLEX Option, WR3
Tim Patrick: Sit
The Sun God is coming off another monster week: 14 receptions for 193 yards and a TD. He’s the WR2 on the season and is set-and-forget every week. This matchup is also not one to avoid, so I would strongly consider starting Jameson Williams as a high-end FLEX option. Jamo has had at least 5 targets in 6 straight games, establishing a floor of around 10 points in PPR, but his big-play potential makes him an extremely enticing asset to have. He had 7 targets in their last contest against the Bears but only needs one deep ball to cash in big. Tim Patrick has caught 3 TDs in the last two games, with 7 and 8 targets, respectively, in those games. It’s worth noting that Goff threw the ball 41 and 59 times in those games, so the relative target share is about the same as Jamo’s. The likelihood of him continuing his TD streak is a bit too shaky to consider starting him at this point.
Tight End
Sam Laporta: Start, TE1
The resurgence of targets for Laporta has catapulted him back into TE1 territory. He saw only 17 targets through the first 7 weeks but has now accumulated 44 targets in his last seven games, including 7 and 10 these past two weeks. His 13 red zone targets since week 7 are tied with St. Brown for most on the team. He does not have the same elite campaign as his rookie season, but this type of target share on a high-producing passing offense lands him in a “safe start” bucket.
Chicago Bears
Quarterback
Caleb Williams: Streaming Option, QB2
The first overall draft pick has been struggling this season, no doubt about it. Much of it can be attributed to some poor pass protection; he’s taken a sack on 10.5% of their plays, the highest rate in the league. He’s also been forced to scramble at the 7th highest rate in the league. Detroit’s had some injuries up front, but they’re a well-coached team that will likely keep pressure on the rookie. He was the QB5 on the week when they last played Detroit on Thanksgiving, but that was 1 of only 4 times all season he finished in the top 12. Caleb’s had eight games outside a top-20 finish as the Bears are 25th in scoring in the league. They’ll likely be playing from behind and leaning more into the passing game, so he could be considered for starting in 2-QB formats but should generally be avoided if possible.
Running Back
D’Andre Swift: FLEX Option, RB3
Roschon Johnson: Sit
Since Roschon Johnson has been out for the past three games, this backfield was run primarily through D’Andre Swift. Despite seeing his season highs in snaps, Swift failed to find the endzone even one time and has yet to break 10 points in PPR in any of the last four games. Roschon is still going through concussion protocol, but it is possible he returns this week. Even if Roschon fails to suit up, this matchup is generally one to avoid. The injuries to the Lions’ defense will certainly soften them up some, but the Bears are 26th in yards per rush attempt and have only 12 rushing TDs through these first 14 games. Swift can be considered a FLEX play if Roschon sits, but Roschon’s return would have us fading the entire backfield.
Wide Receiver
D.J. Moore: Start, WR2
Keenan Allen: FLEX Option, WR3
Rome Odunze: FLEX Option, WR4
The biggest hurdle for these WRs has been Caleb’s inability to sit in the pocket and get the ball out of his hands. The injuries to the Lions’ defensive front should help some, but the Lions’ secondary still ranks as the 3rd most difficult matchup in EPA/pass. The more reliable WR in this room has been D.J. Moore, who’s seen an average of 8.8 targets/game since Week 9 (12th most in the league). Keenan Allen is right behind him at 8.7 targets/game in that same span (13th), but Moore’s catch percentage is 66% compared to Allen’s 58% (on the season is 65% to 56%). On the season, 24% of the team’s targeted air yards have gone to Moore, and 27% has gone to Allen. Leading the team’s targeted air yards is actually Rome Odunze at 33%, but Rome has the lowest completion rate of the three at only 55%. Are you noticing the trend? Caleb struggles to connect on the deeper throws – this is a trend that generally applies across most of the league but may be exaggerated by Caleb’s rate of pressured throws. The solution seems pretty straightforward: get the ball out quickly on some shorter routes. This feeds into Moore’s role the most, and he’s averaging nearly 6 yards after the catch. This game script can also lead to Chicago passing the ball more, so either remaining WR could be considered for the FLEX spot, with a slight preference for Allen.
Tight End
Cole Kmet: Sit
At a high level, Kmet had two big weeks before the Bears’ Week 7 Bye, and he hasn’t cracked a top-10 finish since. He saw only 1 target over these past two games despite being on the field for at least 92% of snaps. Even if the Bears lean more into the passing game, Kmet’s target share (or rather lack thereof) is far too unreliable.