Game Info
Kickoff: December 22, 2024, 7:00 ET
Location: AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas
Network: NBC
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Quarterback
Baker Mayfield: Start, QB1
Mayfield looks to be in an amazing spot for semi-final week. The Cowboys’ defense is still banged up and has allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing QBs this season. This game is also being played in a dome when a bunch of other top QBs may be dealing with weather factors in December.
Mayfield’s attempts have come down a bit, but his TD rate is still amazing and has improved with Mike Evans back. Add in a decent Dallas offense that should be able to keep this exciting, and it won’t be shocking to see Baker finish as a top-five QB this week.
Running Back
Rachaad White: Start, RB2
Bucky Irving: Start, RB2
It’s a rare thing, but both of Tampa Bay’s RBs are starts this week for fantasy (unless you have a very deep bench). While it looked touch-and-go as to whether Bucky Irving would even play last week, he did start and took a healthy 15 carries for 117 yards against a decent run defense. Irving is a clear start against this week as long as he doesn’t regress from an injury perspective, and he may even see a bump in usage if he ends the week healthier.
Rachaad White continues to be a week-to-week surprise as well. Regardless of who the Buccaneers start beside him, White delivers. With Irving banged up, White has now played over 50% of the snaps in three straight games and continues to be used as a receiver and runner in the red zone (three TDs in the last two games).
While Irving has a little more pure upside because of his ability to break big runs, White’s steady usage means he’s a great RB2/Flex to fire up this week against a Cowboys defense that has allowed the eighth-most fantasy points to opposing defenses.
Wide Receiver
Mike Evans: Start, WR1
Jalen McMillan: FLEX Option, WR3
Mike Evans is not someone I would want on my bench this week. The veteran is still in need of some big games to post his 11th straight 1000-yard season and faces a Dallas secondary that loves to give up big plays. Dallas is second-to-last in yards per attempt and has ceded 100+ yards to an opposing WR in three of their last four games. Fire Evans up with impunity this week.
Rookie Jalen McMillan is in a nice spot as well and is certainly viable as a WR3 or Flex. He led all Bucs WRs in targets two weeks ago and has flashed big play ability. Just because of the injuries the Buccaneers are dealing with at WR, McMillan has a solid floor/ceiling combo that could even push him into WR2 territory.
Tight End
Cade Otton: Start, TE1 (low-end)
Otton’s usage has fallen off since Mike Evans returned, as the TE has just seven targets over his last two games combined. Still, targeting for secondary receivers like Otton and McMillan can change fast, and Otton has proven he’s capable of producing when he gets the looks. While I’m more bullish on the WRs in this spot for Tampa, Otton certainly has upside as well; his floor is just nowhere near what it was when Evans was out.
Note: Otton is dealing with a knee injury as well, so make sure you keep checking the injury report or pick up a backup option if he is your starter.
Dallas Cowboys
Quarterback
Cooper Rush: Streaming Option, QB2
I don’t think Cooper Rush is the worst idea for a spot start this week. He is playing the Buccaneers, who allow the second-most fantasy points to opposing QBs. Still, he’s a career backup QB, and his performances have been a bit all over the place. Could you catch lightning in a bottle again and get three passing TDs? Sure, but we could also see multiple picks and a mediocre fantasy day.
Running Back
Rico Dowdle: Start, RB1
Rico Dowdle has taken over as the main ball carrier and is thriving in the new role. He’s now averaged around 20.5 carries over the last three games as the Cowboys try to insulate their backup QB with a power run game. The only downside with Dowdle is his lack of receiving game work, which is strange as he’s shown upside in that part of the game before.
Even in full PPR leagues, you have to start him because his snap rate is so high that, at some point, he’ll likely get involved as a receiver as well. Tampa’s strength against the run is a bit of a downer for him this week, but there are few RBs with a more secure role than him, which counts for a lot.
Wide Receiver
CeeDee Lamb: Start, WR1
Jalen Tolbert: Sit
Lamb is a must-start in this game. He’s facing a Buccaneers secondary that allows the seventh-most fantasy points per game to opposing WRs and the third-most receptions to the position overall. He’s dealt with some injuries late in the season but has looked fully healthy the last two games, going for an average of 104 yards, 7.5 rec, and a TD over his last two starts.
While this is a nice spot for one of the Cowboys’ tertiary receivers to potentially rise up and post a big game or make some plays, your guess is as good as mine as to who that may be. Brandin Cooks ain’t it anymore, so if I had to choose, I would probably look to Jalen Tolbert, who played 50% of the snaps last week, even with Cooks back.
The best idea is to not rely on anyone but Lamb from this unit.
Tight End
Jake Ferguson: Start, TE1
Jake Ferguson‘s four targets last week were third on the team, but he did play on 60% of the snaps. The matchup this week is solid as the Buccaneers are a pass funnel defense and have allowed the sixth-most TDs to opposing TEs. Ferguson has yet to score a TD, but this could certainly be the week he finds the endzone and finally pays off with a big game for fantasy owners.