Game Info
Kickoff: Sunday, December 22, 2024, 4:25 ET
Location: Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park, New York
Network: CBS
Buffalo Bills
Quarterback
Josh Allen: Start, QB1
Josh Allen isn’t just a QB1, he’s the QB1. He’s been the highest-scoring quarterback in fantasy in back-to-back games, and he put up literally the most fantasy points by a quarterback in a single game two weeks ago. The circumstances aren’t quite as favorable this week — he’s back at home in the cold weather of Buffalo instead of playing indoors — but the matchup vs. the Patriots is solid. There’s no reason to take him out of your lineups.
Running Back
James Cook: Start, RB1
Ty Johnson: Sit, RB4
Ray Davis: Sit, RB4
James Cook is right on the low-end RB1/high-end RB2 borderline for me this week, but he should be in your lineups regardless. His workload isn’t what you’d typically expect for a fantasy RB1, but he makes up for it by playing for one of the most explosive offenses in football. He’s somehow finished as a top-10 RB in three of the past four weeks despite seeing 41% of the rushing attempts or fewer in all four games. That’s really hard to do. Ultimately, he does just enough as a runner, pass-catcher, and touchdown-scorer to warrant a lofty ranking vs. the Patriots. The Bills are expected to roll to a victory this week, which could result in a few additional opportunities for all of their running backs.
That includes Ty Johnson and Ray Davis. Johnson has been the primary non-Cook target in the Bills’ backfield this season. He served as their primary pass-catching back, and he’s turned in some big performances in that role. That includes each of the past two weeks, where he’s finished with either a touchdown or 100+ receiving yards.
However, I think this matchup sets up better for Davis. He’s more of a traditional between-the-tackles grinder, so if Cook departs to the sidelines early, Davis will likely be the one closing out the game on the ground. Both Davis and Johnson are RB4 types this week, so you should hopefully be able to avoid starting either.
Wide Receiver
Khalil Shakir: FLEX Option, WR3
Amari Cooper: FLEX Option, WR4
Keon Coleman: Sit
As good as the Bills’ offense is, they don’t really have a must-start player at receiver. They spread things out more than condense around a few players, especially with Keon Coleman and Dalton Kincaid returning to the lineup last week.
If the Bills do have a top receiver, Khalil Shakir owns that designation. He’s been targeted on 26% of his routes run for the year, and he leads the team with a 23% target share overall. Unfortunately, his routes did take a hit last week with the team getting healthier (65% route participation), but he’s still getting enough looks to be a high-end flex target vs. the Patriots.
Amari Cooper is more of a wild card. He was a target monster in Week 14, racking up a 38% target share while being targeted on 51% of his routes run, but he failed to earn a single look last week. His route participation also dropped to 41% after hovering around 60% in the three prior games without Coleman. He gets a downgrade heading into Week 14, and if you have other options, you should probably consider them.
Unfortunately, Coleman didn’t see enough utilization to put himself on the fantasy radar in his first game back. He’s more of a hindrance to the other Bills’ pass-catchers than a standalone fantasy target. Maybe his role will grow moving forward, but he’s not on the radar at the moment.
Tight End
Dalton Kincaid: Start, TE1
Dawson Knox: Sit
Kincaid stepped right back into his usual workload in his first game back from injury. He ran a route on a subpar 59% of the team’s dropbacks, but he was one of the team’s primary targets when available. He was targeted on 32% of his routes run, good for a target share of 23% overall. Kincaid ultimately finished with seven targets, four catches, and 53 yards, and he had a touchdown catch wiped out by a penalty. He’s right on the TE1/TE2 borderline, but the matchup vs. the Patriots is good enough to push him over the top.
The return of Kincaid means that Dawson Knox can be safely returned to the waiver wire. He didn’t exactly light it up even when Kincaid was unavailable, and he had just a 7% target share last week.
New England Patriots
Quarterback
Drake Maye: Streaming Option, QB2
The Bills’ offense is chock-full of fantasy goodness. The Patriots? Not so much. However, Drake Maye has been a pleasant surprise since taking over at quarterback. He brings just enough rushing upside to the table to make him a viable option at the position. He’s finished somewhere between QB12 and QB18 in six straight games, and he should have plenty of opportunities to throw the ball as a massive underdog vs. the Bills. He’s a reasonable choice at QB2 in Superflex leagues, and he can be used as a QB1 if you’re desperate. I have him ranked just outside the top 15 at the position.
Running Back
Rhamondre Stevenson: FLEX Option, RB3
Antonio Gibson: Sit, RB4
Targeting a massive underdog at running back is always scary. If their team falls into a big hole, it often results in a truncated workload. That drops Rhamondre Stevenson from an RB2 to a flex option in Week 16. The saving grace for Stevenson is that he is at least a capable receiver out of the backfield. He has a 10% target share for the year, so a pass-heavy game script doesn’t automatically mean he’s going to bust.
Antonio Gibson has taken on a larger workload for the Pats in recent weeks. He’s played on 33% of their offensive snaps over their past three contests, and he’s handled 32% of their rushing attempts. Unfortunately, he’s been basically a non-factor on passing downs, with Stevenson getting most of the long-yardage opportunities. That drops him to low-end RB4 territory vs. the Bills.
Wide Receiver
Demario Douglas: Sit, WR4
Kayshon Boutte: Sit, WR5
Kendrick Bourne: Sit
The Patriots receiving corps is kind of similar to the Bills. Stop laughing and hear me out. Instead of having one of two options that soak up most of the opportunities, they use a committee approach. One pass-catcher can have a start-worthy performance on occasion, but pinpointing that option is easier said than done.
Demario Douglas has been their most frequent target this season, but he still has just a 17% target share for the year. Most of his targets come near the line of scrimmage, so they’re not particularly valuable. Kayshon Boutte has seen a spike in opportunities of late, and he’s the big-play threat in their receiving corps. His average depth of target is 15.1 yards downfield for the year, and he had 57% of the team’s air yards last week. However, he’s cracked double-digit fantasy points merely once this season. Finally, Kendrick Bourne has a target share of at least 14% in four of his past five games. All three of these guys have some potential on paper, but it’s not quite enough to be startable for one of the worst offenses in football.
Tight End
Hunter Henry: Streaming Option, TE2
Hunter Henry is the only pass-catcher truly worth considering for New England. His role has been steady throughout the year, leading the team with a 20% target share. However, the Bills have been a strong unit against tight ends this season, allowing the ninth-fewest fantasy points per game to the position. He’s still a potential starter, but he’s more of a TE2 than a TE1 in this matchup.