Game Info
Kickoff: Saturday, December 21, 2024, 4:25 ET
Location: M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore, Maryland
Network: FOX
Writer: Matt LaMarca (@MattLaMarca on Twitter)
Pittsburgh Steelers
Quarterback
Russell Wilson: Sit, QB2
Russell Wilson has had a solid bounce-back campaign after being paid $39M by the Broncos to not play football for them this season. That’s a great gig if you can get it. I’m still waiting for someone to pay me not to write articles, but I haven’t been that fortunate. Wilson has been the No. 15 quarterback in fantasy points per game since taking over as the team’s starter, and he draws a phenomenal matchup this week vs. the Ravens. They’ve allowed the fifth-most fantasy points per game to opposing QBs, combining a subpar defense with an offense that forces opponents to be aggressive for four quarters.
Unfortunately, Wilson has not looked like the same player since losing George Pickens to injury. Pickens has been a clear alpha at receiver, and without him, Wilson has finished as QB14 and QB23 in his past two outings. If Pickens returns to the lineup, Wilson has some upside in a juicy matchup, but he’s still probably not a top-12 option at the position.
Running Back
Najee Harris: FLEX Option, RB3
Jaylen Warren: FLEX Option, RB3
Najee Harris is right on the RB2/RB3 borderline, but I ultimately have him just outside the top 25 this week. He has been the Steelers’ main early-down running back this season, and he’s also been more involved in the passing game than you might think. He’s also always a threat to punch in a touchdown, scoring at least once in five of his past nine outings. Unfortunately, this sets up as a poor matchup for him. The Ravens have been significantly tougher against the run defensively, and the Steelers are expected to play this game from behind. Harris tends to lose work to Jaylen Warren in games where the Steelers are trailing, just like last week vs. the Eagles. He ultimately played on just 34% of the team’s snaps vs. the Eagles, and something similar could be in store on Saturday. He’s still a viable flex target, but he has to be slightly downgraded this week.
Jaylen Warren doesn’t have the same upside as Harris, but he has been a pretty steady producer overall. He doesn’t have the same game script concerns as Harris this week, and his pass-catching prowess could actually give him a slight upgrade. He checks in as a low-end RB3 for this matchup.
Wide Receiver
George Pickens: Start, WR2
Calvin Austin: Sit
If Pickens can go this week, he deserves a spot in your fantasy lineups. There’s always a risk in targeting players coming off an injury, but Pickens’ workload has been absolutely elite since Wilson took over at quarterback. He’s had a 26% target share and 44% air yards share in those contests, and he’s also seen 42% of the team’s end zone targets. He has two finishes inside the top five at the position in six contests, and he has two others where he’s finished as a WR2. Against a Ravens squad that has allowed the second-most fantasy points per game to opposing receivers, he’s definitely worth starting.
Unfortunately, no one else for the Steelers is worth considering, even if Pickens is unable to go. Calvin Austin would be the next man up after posting a 28% target share sans Pickens last week. Still, the upside is pretty minimal.
Tight End
Pat Freiermuth: Start, TE1
The biggest winner from the Pickens’ injury has been Pat Freiermuth. He’s finished as a top-eight option at the position in back-to-back weeks, but his role in the offense was growing even before the Pickens’ injury. He’s up to a 19% target share over his past four outings, and while the Ravens have fared slightly better against opposing tight ends, that’s still good enough to deploy Freiermuth in this spot.
Baltimore Ravens
Quarterback
Lamar Jackson: Start, QB1
I’m not going to waste a ton of time on Lamar Jackson. He’s been one of the best players in fantasy all year, so you’re obviously starting him vs. the Steelers. He turned in one of his worst outings of the year in his first matchup vs. the Steelers, but he’s since rebounded with three straight top-five finishes at the position. The Steelers aren’t an ideal matchup, but at least he’ll get to face them in Baltimore this time around.
Running Back
Derrick Henry: Start, RB1
Justice Hill: FLEX Option, RB3
Derrick Henry is still an RB1 for fantasy purposes, but he’s more of a low-end RB1 at this point. The last time he posted a top-10 finish at the position was all the way back in Week 9, and he finished outside the top 30 at the position last week vs. the Giants. He brings very little to the table as a pass-catcher, so he needs to pile up yards and touchdowns on the ground to live up to his lofty ranking. He can do that most weeks, but it’s not a slam dunk. Henry ultimately has a wider range of outcomes than most top fantasy running backs, but he still just barely cracks the top 10 this week.
Justice Hill is also becoming an increasingly larger thorn in Henry’s side. He’s not stealing a ton of carries, but he plays on all the passing-down snaps and takes just enough touches to be annoying. He’s a better target in full-PPR leagues, but he’s still a potential flex option in 0.5-PPR.
Wide Receiver
Zay Flowers: Start, WR2
Rashod Bateman: FLEX Option, WR4
Like Henry, it’s been a while since we’ve seen Zay Flowers pop off for a big game. That said, it hasn’t been due to a lack of opportunities. Flowers has still been the clear top target in the Ravens’ passing attack, garnering 26% of their targets for the year. That’s a really strong figure, especially when Jackson is your quarterback. He’s coming off a 29% target share last week vs. the Giants, and he brings a very reliable floor to the position.
Rashod Bateman is more of the traditional “boom-or-bust” WR4. In some weeks, he might not catch more than one or two passes. In others, he might go for a couple of scores. That’s exactly what happened last week vs. the Giants when he turned five targets into three grabs, 80 yards, and two touchdowns. He’s the locked-in No. 2 receiver in one of the most explosive offenses in football, which keeps him on the flex radar vs. the Steelers.
Tight End
Mark Andrews: Start, TE1
Isaiah Likely: Sit
Starting Mark Andrews does not feel particularly warm and fuzzy. He’s had a part-time role for most of the season, and his target share sits at just 14% overall. That’s not quite what we’re looking for in a starting tight end. However, he’s been able to make up for it with his touchdown-prowess, and he’s finished as a top-10 scorer at the position in seven of his past nine outings. His role is also trending in the right direction. He has a target share of 20% or higher in three of his past five outings, and his 79% route participation last week was his second-highest of the year.
Andrews’ resurgence has had an impact on Isaiah Likely, who looked like the Ravens’ top tight end early in the year. He still has a smidge of upside, but his downside is cavernous: he’s finished as TE25 or worse in three of his past five outings. You can do better at the position.