Game Info
Kickoff: Sunday, December 22, 2024, 4:25 ET
Location: Hard Rock Stadium, Miami, Florida
Network: CBS
Writer: Chris Helle (@ChrisHelleQBL on Twitter)
San Francisco 49ers
Quarterback
Brock Purdy: Streaming Option, QB2
It’s been a rough stretch of games for Purdy – he’s now logged 2 of his last three games with less than 5 fantasy points. Last week’s contest against the Rams was a rainy game, but this offense simply hasn’t been living up to its preseason expectations. This is a middle-of-the-pack matchup against a Dolphins defense that ranks 20th in EPA/pass but also has the 10th lowest rate of pass yards gained per attempt against them. Purdy is the QB13 on the season, and that’s about the finish to expect from him this week – he should bounce back from last week’s disappointment, but don’t expect him or this offense to click back into high gear.
Running Back
Isaac Guerendo: Start, RB2
Patrick Taylor: Sit
After all the injuries to the Niners’ backfield, Isaac Guerendo has started each of the last two games. He’s a respectable talent who benefits from the Shanahan scheme and is a solid RB2 option when healthy, but he just popped up on the injury report with a hamstring issue that sidelined him for Wednesday’s practice. These midweek additions usually don’t bode well, especially when it’s a hamstring issue. Hopefully, he’s good to go, but if you’re desperate for an RB2 or FLEX option, you may want to consider picking up Patrick Taylor off waivers. Taylor wouldn’t be a viable starter if Guerendo can suit up this weekend, but he’d see plenty of volume on an offense that’s top-1o in EPA/rush and runs the ball at the 7th highest rate in the league. The Dolphins may only allow the 11th-lowest yards per rush attempt against them, but they haven’t faced many run-heavy teams.
Wide Receiver
Jauan Jennings: Start, WR2
Deebo Samuel: FLEX Option, WR4
Ricky Pearsall: Sit
The Dolphins’ defense is statistically much stronger against the run than the pass, ranking in the 76th percentile in rushing success rate but only in the 21st percentile in passing success rate. Jauan Jennings has been far and away the most reliable WR in this offense ahead of yips-magee Deebo Samuel and the hardly utilized Ricky Pearsall. If Guerendo fails to see the field this weekend, Deebo becomes slightly more playable in the chances he gets worked into some backfield carries as he did last week and in previous seasons. Generally speaking, though, he’s one to avoid, along with Pearsall, who’s only seen 9 targets in the last five games.
Tight End
George Kittle: Start, TE1
Kittle is the TE3 on the season and the heartbeat of this offense. He’s a must-start every week, as he’s only finished outside the top 10 TEs twice all season. He’s actually the TE1 on a points-per-game basis, is tied with Brock Bowers for the 2nd most yards/game at 71.8 yards/game, and has the highest TD rate of all TEs. He’s in your lineup with no major concerns for this game.
Miami Dolphins
Quarterback
Tua Tagovailoa: Streaming Option, QB2
The decision to start Tua would have been much easier had it not been for last week’s stinker. He had thrown for 1,300 yards, 11 TDs, and 0 INTs in the 4-game stretch before last week’s 195 yards, 1 TD, and 3 INTs. Houston does have a very strong defense, and while the Niners’ defense isn’t as good as previous years, it’s still a high-end unit. Houston’s D ranks 2nd in interception rate, 4th in sack rate, and 2nd in lowest yards allowed per pass. The Niners defense is 11th in INT rate, 8th in sack rate, and 4th in lowest yards/pass allowed. Tua and this offense certainly can bounce back and put up big numbers, but last week was cause for concern, and this situation isn’t much different. Tua lands around the high-end QB range, given his high ceiling, but he’s a risky start.
Running Back
De’Von Achane: Start, RB1
Raheem Mostert: Sit
Achane is locked into your lineup each week, given that he’s essentially a low-end WR1 who gets another ~10 carries out of the backfield. He’s an explosive playmaker who sees roughly 18 touches per game, so his production is one of the most reliable expectations in fantasy. Miami has struggled to be efficient on the ground but knows how to get their guys the ball in open space and let them do the work. The 49ers are 15th in YAC EPA/reception, so Achane should see no problem doing what he’s been doing. Achane’s snap share and level of volume come at the expense of Raheem Mostert, who has become an obsolete RB with few touches and inefficient production.
Wide Receiver
Tyreek Hill: Start, WR2
Jaylen Waddle: FLEX Option, WR4
Malik Washington: Sit
Tyreek Hill may no longer be the elite talent he has been in years past, but he’s still a serviceable fantasy asset and can be seen as a WR2 with upside from here on out. Since Tua’s return to action in Week 8, Tyreek has averaged 15 points per game in PPR (WR23 in PPG over that span). Last week’s 2 receptions for 36 yards was a dud, but he still saw 7 targets. A major factor to consider is the availability of Jaylen Waddle, who left last week’s game early with a knee injury and has been kept out of practice this week. Waddle’s target share has had its ups and downs, so he would be a low-end FLEX option with upside if he suits up, but Tyreek would likely be the biggest beneficiary of targets should Waddle be ruled out.
Tight End
Jonnu Smith: Start, TE1
Jonnu has now gone five straight games as a top-10 TE in PPR, including last week’s finish as the TE1. He saw 11 targets in 3 of these past five games, which goes to show how much of an integral part of this offense he is. He’s also scored 5 TDs in these past five games, making him one of the most valuable TEs to own. Much has been discussed about Achane’s improvement with Tua back, but a case can be made it’s been just as big of an impact on Jonnu.