Game Info
Kickoff: Sunday, November 29th at 8:20 PM ET
Location: Lambeau Field, Green Bay, WI
Betting Odds: CHI +8.5, 45 total via Oddsshark
Network: NBC
Chicago Bears
Quarterback
Nick Foles (Sit), Mitchell Trubisky (Sit), Tyler Bray (Sit)
With a late-game hip/glute injury just before the Bears’ bye week, it seems Nick Foles is in danger of missing this week’s rivalry match-up against the Packers. Early signs and reports have indicated that Mitchell Trubisky looks to be the likely starter, but, Trubisky is nursing a shoulder injury of his own, and Chicago will likely want to keep their Week 12 starting QB a secret for as long as possible. Assuming neither Foles nor Trubisky is ready to go this week, Tyler Bray will get the start. Whoever starts at QB for Chicago this week will be a desperation low-end QB2 play anyway, so fantasy managers should look somewhere else for a viable quarterback this week.
Running Backs
David Montgomery (Flex)
David Montgomery sat out Week 10 with a concussion but should be back this week, barring any major setbacks. Still, Montgomery hasn’t been a great option this year. He’s averaged just under 11.5 fantasy points per game over his last seven and only has one touchdown over that same stretch. The match-up this week against the terrible Green Bay rush defense is encouraging, but only enough to rank Montgomery as a worthy flex consideration this week.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
Allen Robinson II (Start, WR2), Darnell Mooney (Sit), Anthony Miller (Sit), Jimmy Graham (Sit, Low-end TE2)
Allen Robinson II is still the most fantasy-relevant receiver on this team, but when Chicago’s offense is struggling, it means Robinson’s fantasy stat line will flounder as well. Such was the case two weeks ago when the Bears could only score six points and accrued less than 150 total yards. The match-up this week is another tough one. The Packers are allowing the eighth-fewest fantasy points to wide receivers this year. Plus, if the Bears’ best receiver sees plenty of Jaire Alexander, one of the top corners in the league, he could have a tough go of it. I don’t love the match-up, but Robinson should still be capable of low-end WR2 numbers this week.
Some fantasy managers took a bit of interest in Darnell Mooney a few weeks ago when he saw an uptick in his usage. Mooney had five catches two games in a row and even scored a touchdown during those two weeks. Unfortunately, he’s no more than a bench stash when his offense is struggling the way it has and we don’t even know who will throw him the ball. The same could be said of AnthonyMiller, who’s only had one double-digit fantasy performance over the past seven games. He can’t be trusted while the offense is at rock-bottom either.
With how poorly this offense is performing, it will also be tough to trust Jimmy Graham this week. Like most tight ends, Graham’s fantasy performance is pretty touchdown-dependant. The only times he’s reached double-digit fantasy points this year required a trip to the end zone. To make matters worse, the Packers are currently allowing the third-fewest fantasy points to the tight end position this year. I’m not trusting Jimmy against his former team this week, but I wouldn’t blame you don’t have any better options in the tight end wasteland.
Green Bay Packers
Quarterback
Aaron Rodgers (Start, Low-end QB1)
The Chicago Bears have been pretty darn good against fantasy quarterbacks this year, allowing the fourth-fewest points to the position and the tenth-fewest passing yards per game. With the way Green Bay’s defense has been playing, the Packers likely know they need to put plenty of points on the board if they want to win this one. Unfortunately for them, with the way the Bears are playing defense, this game could be much closer than they want it to be. I believe the Packers will have some offensive struggles, but not more than they can handle, and Rodgers should be capable of reaching low-end QB1 territory.
Running Backs
Aaron Jones (Start, RB1), Jamaal Williams (Sit)
Aaron Jones is the overall RB7 with only eight games under his belt. The next closest running back with eight games or fewer is Chris Carson, who is currently at RB24. The Bears have been pretty good against running backs this year, allowing the eighth-fewest points to the position. The match-up isn’t great, but it’s not quite enough to take Jones out of RB1 territory either. Jamaal Williams is still more of a bench stash for the time being. He’s only been given 6.5 carries in each of his last two games.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
Davante Adams (Start, WR1), Marquez Valdes-Scantling (Sit), Allen Lazard (Sit), Robert Tonyan (Start-able High-end TE2), Jace Sternberger (Sit)
Davante Adams has the overall WR1 position and has played two fewer games than the next ten players on that list. The man is a beast. The Bears’ secondary has proven to be quite capable this year, but it doesn’t seem like that will slow down Adams too much. Start with confidence.
Outside his heart-breaking, game-losing fumble last week, Marquez Valdes-Scantling has been playing pretty darn well over the past couple of weeks. Week 11’s stat line didn’t show it, but MVS was still an essential part of the Packers’ attack. Valdes-Scantling could be trending in the right direction as far as “boom or bust” guys go. The question is whether the return of Allen Lazard positively or negatively affects Valdes-Scantling’s ceiling and floor. Lazard made his return last week but was on a bit of a pitch count, so we still don’t know how the targets will shake out for sure. I would recommend a wait-and-see approach with both MVS and Lazard, at least for this week.
Touchdown-dependant tight ends are a dime a dozen this year, and Robert Tonyan is no exception. Tonyan put up more than 15 fantasy points and a touchdown last week, but I don’t think he will ever unquestionably “arrive” on the fantasy scene this year. Tonyan is a talented tight end, but Jace Sternberger is still in the mix, capping Robert’s fantasy potential. The Bears are allowing the eighth-most fantasy points to tight ends this year. That said, I still have Tonyan as a high-end, touchdown-dependent TE2, and he will likely stay in that same general tier for the rest of the year. You could do worse if you’re desperate for a viable tight end, though.
-Ryan Kruse (@ryanpkruse)