Game Info
Kickoff: Thursday, November 26th at 12:30 PM ET
Location: Ford Field, Detroit, MI
Betting Odds: HOU -2.5, 51.5 total via Oddsshark
Network: CBS
Houston Texans
Quarterback
Deshaun Watson (Start, QB1)
Turkey, dressing, and the Detroit Lions are all Thanksgiving staples and the Lions will host the Texans to kick off a day full of food and football today. Detroit is 0-3 on Thanksgiving the past three seasons and Deshaun Watson will look to extend that streak to four games today. Watson, despite a 3-7 record, is on pace for the best statistical season of his career. Watson is averaging 288 passing yards per game along with two passing TDs per game and still has the ability to run when needed. Detroit has allowed more than 20 fantasy points to opposing QBs seven times this season and another two that have exceeded 19 fantasy points. Watson should continue that trend this week and looks like an easy QB1 for fantasy managers in Week 12.
Running Backs
Duke Johnson (Start, RB2)
David Johnson still has one more week on injured reserve before he can be designated for return so the primary rushing duties will once again fall to Duke Johnson in Week 12. Duke has struggled with the lead role mustering just 89 total yards the last two weeks with no TDs. Duke has also been sparsely used in the passing game with six targets over that same span. Detroit has allowed an RB to score in every game for each of the last seven weeks and has one of the worst rushing defenses in the NFL. Given Duke’s recent struggles, it’s hard to fully trust him as an RB1 but fantasy managers should expect an RB2 day given the matchup today.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
Will Fuller (Start, WR2), Brandin Cooks (Start, WR1), Keke Coutee (Sit), Jordan Akins/Darren Fells/Pharoah Brown (Sit)
For the first time in, well, ever, Will Fuller has played in all of the team’s games to this point. Fuller is well known for his explosive speed and his ability to take any catch the distance but it might surprise you that Fuller’s ADOT this season is the lowest of his career at 12.2 yards. Fuller doesn’t have the benefit of DeAndre Hopkins on the opposite side of the field this season, but Brandin Cooks has been almost as good. Fuller went six consecutive games with a TD earlier this season and has fewer than four catches only twice this season. Fuller could easily finish as a WR1 today but tempering expectations would be advised for fantasy managers and a WR2 finish seems very attainable.
Despite lagging behind Fuller in receiving yards and TDs, Cooks has consistently been the more targeted player every week. Cooks saw his fewest targets of the last six games last week but still led the team in receiving yards and had a TD nullified by a penalty that would have resulted in an even bigger day. The Lions couldn’t slow down Carolina’s WRs with a backup QB last week and there is no reason to believe this week will be any different. Cooks has a slightly higher floor than Fuller simply because of the targets and should creep into WR1 territory for fantasy managers today.
Houston ruled both Randall Cobb and Kenny Stills out for today meaning the third WR role now belongs to Keke Coutee. Coutee did have a TD last week but has only made an appearance in two games this season. Houston’s third WR has been mostly an afterthought and fantasy managers shouldn’t count on another TD from Coutee as that is what it will take to make him fantasy relevant. Coutee can be benched today.
Houston rolls out three different TEs throughout the game and all have been involved in the passing game over the past few weeks. As a result, it’s hard to trust any of them as a fantasy manager today. Darren Fells has been the most productive of the group with three TDs but Jordan Akins has been the most targeted in recent weeks. Pharoah Brown has been little utilized but has seen a couple of targets as well. Fantasy managers should avoid all three today.
Detroit Lions
Quarterback
Matthew Stafford (Sit, QB2)
If there is a team that could finish worse than Detroit in defensive rankings, it could be the Houston Texans. Houston is only slightly better than Detroit in passing yards allowed at 252 per game and has allowed four QBs to exceed 300 passing yards. Also, six QBs have scored multiple TDs against the Texans. The next to attempt that feat is Matthew Stafford although it appears as though he’ll be without star WR Kenny Golladay once again. Stafford, dealing with a thumb injury of his own, was held to less than 200 passing yards for the first time this season and it’s simply hard to trust him despite the plus matchup. Fantasy managers in two-QB leagues can slot Stafford in as their QB2 but there are too many negatives to trust Stafford as anything higher today.
Running Backs
D’Andre Swift (Start, RB2), Adrian Peterson (Sit), Kerryon Johnson (Sit)
Unfortunately for fantasy managers, rookie D’Andre Swift was held out of Detroit’s Week 11 game after suffering a concussion earlier in the week. As of this writing, we’re not sure if Swift participated in the team’s Wednesday practice although he did get in a limited session on Tuesday. If Swift is cleared to play, he becomes a strong option against Houston’s league-worst rush defense that allows an average of 159 rushing yards per game. Swift finally got the official designation of “starter” in Week 10 as Detroit looks to have turned to him as their primary RB. Swift responded with 149 combined yards and a receiving TD for fantasy managers. Monitor reports coming out of Detroit’s practice, but if Swift is cleared he should easily finish as an RB2 for fantasy managers in Week 12.
Both Adrian Peterson and Kerryon Johnson were left to pick up the scraps in Week 10 with Swift healthy but it was Johnson who saw the majority of the work in Week 11 with Swift sidelined. Neither player was very impressive last week, but the same could be said for the entire team. If Swift plays, neither Peterson nor Johnson carries enough fantasy value to warrant consideration. If Swift is sidelined and we get a clear indication of who the lead back will be, that player could be a flex option today.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
Kenny Golladay (Sit), Marvin Jones (Sit, WR3/Flex if Golladay out), Danny Amendola/Marvin Hall/Jamal Agnew/Quintez Cephus/Mohamed Sanu (Sit), T.J. Hockenson (Start, TE1)
Fantasy managers relying on Kenny Golladay have been sorely disappointed this season as he has struggled to stay healthy. As I mentioned earlier, I don’t know if Golladay will play this week but he was unable to practice Tuesday after a limited session on Monday putting his availability severely in doubt. Detroit, at 4-6, has no real reason to rush him back and sitting him one more game gives him 10 days to fully recover. If Golladay plays, I can’t imagine he’ll see a normal workload and should be benched in Week 12.
Marvin Jones has been good to excellent in Golladay’s absence sans last week when the whole offense struggled. Jones has accumulated 37 targets and has turned them into 18 receptions for 229 yards and four TDs over the last four weeks and is the most targeted Lion over that span. The big question is how much of last week’s struggles were a result of Stafford’s thumb injury. If it was just an off week, Jones should be back in the WR2 conversation but if the injury is affecting Stafford’s throwing then Jones is probably no better than a WR3. Fantasy managers with the luxury of starting Jones as their WR3 should feel OK doing so. If you’re trusting him as a WR2 then you need to hope last week was an aberration.
Danny Amendola missed practice on Monday and Tuesday, casting serious doubt over his availability today. If he is ruled out, Detroit will look to some combination of Marvin Hall, Quintez Cephus, Jamal Agnew, and Mohamed Sanu to fill the void. Hall and Agnew saw the most snaps and were the most productive last week and it would stand to reason that would be the case again this week. Unfortunately, none of them project to see enough volume to make a blip on the fantasy radar. Fantasy managers can look past all of Detroit’s secondary WRs today.
About the only reliable option in Detroit’s passing game, this season has been T.J. Hockenson and he’s even had some duds this year. Hockenson leads the team and targets and receptions with 60 and 40, respectively, and is tied with Jones for the team lead with five TDs. Hockenson is a viable threat for Stafford all over the field and has secured all of his TDs when the team reaches the red zone. In a year with few clear options at the top of the TE rankings, Hockenson has been a reliable TE1 finisher most weeks and looks to continue that trend for fantasy managers today.
Snap counts courtesy of Fantasy Data.
-Bryan Sweet (@FantasyFreakTN on Twitter)