Game Info
Kickoff: Sunday, November 29th at 1:00 PM ET
Location: Empower Field at Mile High, Denver, CO
Betting Odds: NO -6, 43.5 Total via Oddsshark
Network: FOX
New Orleans Saints
Quarterback
Taysom Hill (Start, QB1)
Taysom Hill started his first game after most expected Jamies Winston to be behind center. Hill was able to run the offense and produce a solid fantasy week after a shaky first quarter. It looks like Hill can do a Cam Newton impersonation in this Saints offense, meaning a short and quick passing game with the added running. With the explosive playmakers and rushing upside, Hill should continue to post QB1 numbers as long as Drew Brees is out.
Running Backs
Alvin Kamara (Start, RB1), Latavius Murray (Start, Deep Flex)
Last week was the first game of Alvin Kamara’s career without a catch. Kamara only had one target on the day and split the rushing attempts evenly with Latavius Murray. The question is whether this was by design or just happened naturally. I tend to believe it was more of the latter, though that may still be an issue as running QBs tend to scramble instead of looking for check-downs to RBs. We have no reason to be drastic and bench Kamara right now, but it is something to watch as Hill continues to start. Murray continues to be a deep flex option and top handcuff getting roughly half the snaps and carries in the backfield.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
Michael Thomas (Start, WR1), Emmanuel Sanders (Sit)
Michael Thomas looked like himself against the Falcons last week. Thomas saw 12 targets, which was double that of any other Saint. Thomas is now second in the NFL in WOPR (per airyards.com), just behind Davante Adams and right where he normally is. Taysom Hill running the offense should continue to be a boon for Thomas as he will be relying on his first option on most plays. Emmanuel Sanders was the only other Saint to see more than two targets from Hill last week. Sanders had a 50-yard TD called back on a holding penalty and would have made his day look much different. But against a stout Broncos pass defense, I would not be relying on any secondary Saints weapons like Sanders.
Denver Broncos
Quarterback
Drew Lock (Sit)
Never a great look when a QB says that on half of his throws he immediately thinks “Oh no.” But that is a direct quote from Drew Lock. And from watching him play, you will be saying that yourself. Lock is 37th in CPOE (per NextGenStats). That is in the bottom four with other great QBs like Jake Luton, Dwayne Haskins, and Sam Darnold. Do not start Lock against the Saints pass defense, which is top five by DVOA (per Football Outsiders).
Running Backs
Melvin Gordon (Start, Deep Flex), Phillip Lindsay (Start, Deep Flex)
Melvin Gordon and Phillip Lindsay were the most effective part of the Broncos offense last week. Both saw 15 carries for over 80 yards rushing and Gordon punched in two TDs. I am hesitant to use either this upcoming week though. The two prior weeks neither of them were able to produce and now they face the Saints run defense which is second in the NFL by DVOA (per Football Outsiders). Lindsay can hit via a long run and Gordon will see any red-zone work, but this offense will find it difficult to put up points. I would use other options if you have them.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
Jerry Jeudy (Start, Deep Flex), Tim Patrick (Sit), Noah Fant (Start, TE1)
Jerry Jeudy was outshined by Tim Patrick last week, but he is clearly the more valuable receiver on the Broncos. Jeudy is fourth in the NFL in air yards and is 26th in WOPR (both per airyards.com). Patrick’s stat line last week was also buoyed by a 50-yard reception in the final seconds of the game to waste the clock. I would rather not play a weapon attached to Lock this week, but Jeudy would be my preference of the two. Noah Fant is a TE1 mostly because of the landscape of the position. Fant is 13th in routes run among TEs (per PFF), which is solid considering he missed a few games. Fant is third in the pecking order in the Broncos passing game, but you can easily do worse at the TE position.
-Frank Costanzo (@FrankQBList on Twitter, Zzzonked92 on Reddit)