Sit/Start Week 12 Reviewing All Fantasy Relevant Players In Every Single Game

Game Info

Kickoff: Sunday, November 29th at 1:00 PM ET

Location: Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN

Betting Odds: IND -4, 51 total via Oddsshark

Network: CBS

Tennessee Titans

Quarterback

Ryan Tannehill (Sit)

For the second time in three weeks, the Titans and Colts will face off and sole possession of the AFC lead is at stake this week. In the Week 10 matchup, Ryan Tannehill had his worst game of the season compiling just 147 passing yards and one TD with a 55.5% completion percentage.  Not much has changed for either team in those two weeks so it seems unlikely that Tannehill will suddenly become a viable option for fantasy managers.  Both these teams lean on the running game on offense but Indianapolis has a better defense.  This has all the makings of a grind-it-out type of game and I can’t recommend Tannehill as a starting option this week.

Running Backs

Derrick Henry (Start, RB1), Jeremy McNichols/D’Onta Foreman (Sit)

For the first time this season, Derrick Henry put together back-to-back games with 100+ rushing yards although it did take overtime to get there last week.  Henry is one of just two backs to have eclipsed 1,000 yards on the season and is the motor that keeps the Tennessee offense running.  Henry has not had a game in which he has received fewer than 21 opportunities (carries plus targets) and got exactly that number in Week 10 against the Colts.  Tennessee rushed for a total of 157 yards in Week 10 which is the most Indianapolis has surrendered in a single game this season.  Henry was held without a TD in the first meeting between these teams but is guaranteed a high volume of touches and should continue to be trusted as a solid RB1 for fantasy managers this week.

Both Jeremy McNichols and D’Onta Foreman are complementary pieces in Tennessee’s offense and won’t see enough action barring an injury to Henry.  Both can safely be ignored by fantasy managers this week.

Wide Receivers/Tight Ends

A.J. Brown (Start, WR3/Flex), Corey Davis (Start, Flex), Adam Humphries/Kalif Raymond/Cameron Batson (Sit), Jonnu Smith (Sit, TE2)

It’s hard to fathom questioning whether or not to confidently start A.J. Brown after witnessing his TD last week that was a result of pure determination, but here we are.  Two weeks ago Brown suffered what was easily his worst game of the season with just one catch for 21 yards.  Indianapolis is a top-five defense this season and we’ve already discussed Tannehill’s performance against the above.  Brown has the talent to finish as a WR2 any week but his recent track record against the Colts makes it tough to count on him as the fantasy playoffs approach.  If you can start three WRs or have shaky options for your flex, then plug him in and be happy with that.  He could disappoint if fantasy managers are expecting WR2 production or better, so be warned.

In Week 10, Corey Davis was the most productive WR for Tennessee as he led the team in receptions and yards (5-for-67) and tied for the team lead in targets with six.  Davis has been a consistent producer for the Titans this season and showed out against a tough secondary last week in Baltimore with five catches for 113 yards.  Given the recent success Davis had against this team, it’s hard to completely ignore him but this is going to be a tough test for the Titans and fantasy managers should be hesitant to trust Davis as anything other than a middling flex option this week.

It is yet to be determined if Adam Humphries will return from the concussion he suffered in Week 8 but his game does not translate well to fantasy production.  If Humphries misses, some combination of Kalif Raymond and Cameron Batson will be asked to step up in his place.  Neither has been very productive in Humphries’ absence and there is no reason to expect otherwise this week.  All three WRs can safely be benched in Week 12.

It’s been a frustrating few weeks for fantasy managers that trusted Jonnu Smith as a TE1 early in the season as Smith has been unable to recapture that production since suffering an ankle injury in Week 6.  Smith is still leading the position in snaps every week but has been losing targets to Anthony Firkser recently.  Given the tough matchup and the loss of targets, Smith should be sat in all but the largest of leagues in Week 12 along with Firkser.

Indianapolis Colts

Quarterback

Philip Rivers (Sit, QB2)

If you search the internet for information about Philip Rivers you might be surprised to see a “Questionable” tag for a toe ailment as week approach Week 12.  Rivers was treated during the Green Bay game in Week 11 but returned and led the team to a come-from-behind victory making his appearance against Tennessee this week more likely than not.  Rivers had a solid outing in Week 10 against Tennessee as he passed for more than 300 yards and tossed a TD without throwing an INT in the win.  The Titans have struggled against the pass this season, allowing 267 passing yards per game and have allowed two or more TDs to the position in every week except Week 1 and last week.  Rivers has seen a slight uptick in attempts the last six weeks but Indianapolis is still a run-first team, limiting his upside.  Rivers is best viewed as a solid option in leagues with two starting QBs but might struggle to make an impact in traditional leagues in Week 12.

Running Backs

Jonathan Taylor (Start, low-end RB2), Nyheim Hines (Start, Flex), Jordan Wilkins (Sit)

Just when you think you have the answer to the Colts RB rotation, Indianapolis changes the question.  In the last four weeks, this is what fantasy managers have had to deal with:

• Week 8 – Jordan Wilkins leads the team in carries and yards (20-89-1), Nyheim Hines is the preferred receiving back (3-54-2), and Jonathan Taylor is just there (31 total yards)
• Week 9 – Wilkins again leads in yards and carries (11-39) but Taylor gets the TD (6-27-1) and Hines totals just 38 yards
• Week 10 – Hines replaces Wilkins as the preferred option (12-70-1 rushing, 5-45-1 receiving) as Wilkins (28 total yards) and Taylor (37 total yards) are basically nonexistent
• Week 11 – Taylor takes control of the backfield (22-90-0 rushing, 4-24-0 receiving) as Wilkins (36 total yards) and Hines (33 total yards) take a backseat to Taylor

Perfectly logical, right?  In trying to navigate how this backfield might shake out this week, Taylor has been dubbed “starter” in most of the team’s games this season so we’re going to assume that will be the case again this week.  Taylor has the draft capital and pedigree to succeed and has shown that ability on several occasions this season.  Projecting the majority of the work this week, Taylor should end up somewhere in the RB2 range for fantasy managers.

Hines sees a bit of a bump in PPR leagues and has shown he can provide RB1 production when given the chance.  In fact, Hines was the most productive back when these two teams met in Week 10.  However, I suspect Taylor will see a bit of a bigger workload and that will relegate Hines to a flex role for fantasy managers in Week 12.

Wilkins has seen his fantasy stock plummet the last two weeks and now is firmly nothing more than a backup for Indianapolis.  He can be sat this week.

Wide Receivers/Tight Ends

T.Y. Hilton (Sit), Michael Pittman (Sit), Zach Pascal (Sit), Trey Burton (Sit)

Much like the RB situation in the previous section, the Colts’ WR production is hard to peg down from week to week.  Over the same four-week span as above, each of T.Y. Hilton, Michael Pittman, and Zach Pascal has led the team in targets in any given week.  It may seem odd to recommend Rivers as a viable option in two-QB leagues but have none of his receiving options as startable possibilities, but the production is so spread out no one generally has a great week as a result.  In fact, this week I’m projecting all three of Indianapolis’s WRs to finish withing one point of each other mainly because I don’t know who, if anybody, will receive the most opportunities.  Will one of these guys end up as a startable option?  Probably, but I don’t know who so I recommend avoiding all of them unless you don’t have a clearly better option.

About the only thing that seems certain among the receiving options in Indianapolis is that Trey Burton is going to see one high-value red zone target.  Burton has been a red zone factor since his return in Week 4 and has received one red-zone target every game he’s played this season.  Burton has only been able to convert two of those targets into TDs, but the opportunities are encouraging.  Unfortunately for fantasy managers, Burton isn’t seeing enough opportunities throughout the game to warrant serious consideration every week.  This week, it’s recommended to sit Burton for better options.

Snap counts courtesy of Fantasy Data.

-Bryan Sweet (@FantasyFreakTN on Twitter)