Sit/Start Week 13: Reviewing All Fantasy Relevant Players In Every Single Game

Game Info

Kickoff: Thursday, December 1st, 8:15 PM ET

Location: Gillette Stadium, Foxboro Massachusetts

Betting Odds: NE +4, 43.5 total via oddshark.com

Network: Amazon Prime

Writer: Dustin Ludke (@TheDunit13 on Twitter)

Buffalo Bills

Quarterback

Josh Allen (Start, QB1)

It’s clear that the elbow is an effect on Josh Allen but when you need a play, he makes a play. Since the Week 7 bye he has been a QB1 twice, QB2 twice, and a Sit once. You drafted him to be your starting quarterback and you probably don’t have any better options. He gets the Patriots this week in a crucial divisional matchup with huge playoff implications. The Patriots are giving up the twelfth fewest points to quarterbacks but in his past two games in Foxboro, Allen has passed for three and four touchdowns. He is matchup-proof. Even if he has a down game passing-wise, he uses his legs to pick up first downs, keeps drives going, and racks up fantasy points. Start him as a QB1. If you are actually reading this you probably should move on already, but thanks for taking the time.

Running Backs

Devin Singletary (Start, Flex), James Cook (Sit)

The past few weeks have been very good for Devin Singletary. With Josh Allen being less than 100% the running game has seen an increase. The Bills were rushing the ball only 40% of the time and now they have moved closer to 43% over the past three weeks. It may not seem like a massive shift but it has given Singletary double-digit carries in each of the past three weeks. The Patriots are giving up the least amount of points to running backs at 15.56, but are known for taking away a team’s leading option, which will be Josh Allen and the passing game for the Bills. It’s a tough matchup for Singletary but he should still be started as a solid flex option.

James Cook has seen more work since the Bills’ Week 7 bye. He doesn’t have enough opportunities to be fantasy relevant just yet but he could continue to see more work as the Bills make a playoff push. You will still sit him for now.

Wide Receivers/Tight Ends

Stefon Diggs (Start, WR1), Gabe Davis (Start, Flex), Isaiah McKenzie (Sit, Flex), Dawson Knox (Sit, TE2) 

Let’s start with the easy part. You are starting Stefon Diggs as a WR1 this week and every week. He has led the team in targets almost every week and has 84 receptions, 1110 yards, and 9 touchdowns on the season. He is currently the number one overall wide receiver in fantasy. Even with the Patriots giving up the seventh-fewest points to wide receivers at 29.43 you are still starting him. The Patriots are known for taking away a team’s best option and that will be Diggs. They can try to cover him with Jonathan Jones who is a great corner, rating at 82.0 in coverage, and a safety over the top in Kyle Dugger, who rates at 65.3 in coverage, but Diggs will still get his. In his last four games against the Patriots, he has averaged 93.25 yards, 6.5 receptions, and a score, including the wind game last season. He is a must-start.

Gabe Davis has always been a boom/bust player. The question is will he boom this week? Since the Week 8 bye Davis has led the team in routes run every week except one. He will probably see coverage from Jalen Mills who rates at 42.7 in coverage. It’s a great matchup for Davis who can use his speed to get past the coverage or in crossing patterns. You can start him as a flex play this week. He has started to see more targets earlier in games and his speed is a tool the Bills want to utilize in quicker passes giving Davis a chance to get yards after the catch.

Isaiah McKenzie had ten targets in Week 12 which is more than he saw in the previous four games combined. It’s an outlier in terms of his normal target share and shouldn’t be considered a weekly thing. He will see coverage from Myles Bryant this week, who rates at 58.1 in coverage. The Patriots also have good cover linebackers who will be in charge of taking away the passes between the numbers which is where McKenzie sees most of his work.

The linebackers also will have to deal with tight end Dawson Knox. New England is giving up the eighth-most points to tight ends at 13.48 per game. Before last week Knox had seen over five targets in two games straight but only saw two in the Thanksgiving game. He has been hit or miss this season. I don’t expect him to be that important as the Bills should get a comfortable lead and look to take more passes off Allen’s elbow. This week, he will be in the TE2 range and could get to TE1 if he scores a TD. There are probably better options out there but if you need him he won’t disappoint too much.

New England Patriots

Quarterback

Mac Jones (Start, QB2)

Mac Jones played very well in the Thanksgiving loss to the Vikings. It finally looked like he had gotten over all the Bailey Zappe talk and regained his confidence and the team’s confidence. It’s great to see for the second-year quarterback who has struggled with coaching upheaval and injuries this season. What’s less fortunate is that he has to play the Bills this week. Not only is he playing the team giving up the seventh fewest points to quarterbacks at 13.59, but it’s also a defense that is getting healthy. All-pro corner Tre’Davious White returned last week after missing the start of the season. Jordan Poyer is playing fully healthy. The loss of Von Miller rushing the former Crimson Tide QB is a plus but the other defenders up front can pick up the slack. It’s a tough divisional matchup that the Bills need to win to keep their hopes of a third straight division win alive. I’m not starting Mac Jones this week. Last week was only the fourth time in his career that he was in the QB1 range.

Running Backs

Rhamondre Stevenson (Start, RB1), Damien Harris (OUT)

Damien Harris will not play on Thursday night. He suffered a thigh injury last week and was seen on crutches after the game. He hasn’t practiced at all this week and has been declared out. Even if he was playing this is now Rhamondre Stevenson‘s backfield. The Bills are giving up 21.79 points to running backs which puts them 19th in the NFL. Stevenson is playing on over 70% of the team’s snaps and is getting the bulk of the carries. He has seen over 15 carries in five out of the past seven games. Adding to his value is that he is heavily involved in the passing game. He ran 27 routes in Week 12 and saw 10 targets. He has seen five or more targets in eight out of their eleven games. He is a solid RB1. He is getting a healthy amount of carries and pass-catching opportunities and there isn’t anyone behind him who can take the work away when Harris is on the shelf.

Wide Receivers/Tight Ends

Jakobi Meyers (Start, WR3), DeVante Parker (Start, Flex), Nelson Agholor (Sit), Kendrick Bourne (Sit), Hunter Henry (Sit, TE2)

New England wide receiver Jakobi Meyers is dealing with a shoulder injury but is slated to play on Thursday night. He has got limited practice this week. His matchup isn’t the worst this week, as he has run 75% of his snaps from the slot position so he will draw coverage from Taron Johnson who rates at 64.2 in coverage. Normally Meyers is playing up to 80% or more of the team’s snaps, bu last week with the injury, he only played 29%. Despite the limited play he still saw four targets and caught three of them for 62 yards. He hasn’t scored in three games, and he will need to get into the end zone to have the upside but you can start him as a WR3.

The Meyers injury opened up more snaps for Nelson Agholor. After four straight weeks of under 70% snap share, he saw 78% of the team’s snaps on Thanksgiving night. He saw eight targets and caught six of them for 65 yards and a score. He ran 31 routes in that game with 64.5% of them coming from the slot. With Meyers back, it will limit his opportunities. I don’t think he can be trusted unless Meyers misses the game.

Devante Parker led the team in routes run in Week 12 with 36. He caught all four of his targets for 80 yards. It will come down to coverage for Parker to have a good game. He ran 91.7% of his routes out wide so he will see coverage from either Tre’Davious White or Dane Jackson. White rates at 65.2 on his one game of limited snaps while Jackson rates at 60.8. The Bills have rotated their secondary well with all the injuries this season. Parker has been involved but not heavily and Pat’s passing offense is low-volume. I think you can trust Parker as a flex play against the Bills.

Kendrick Bourne and Tyquan Thornton are nothing more than boom plays hoping for a long ball touchdown. Neither has seen over five targets in the past four weeks. You should probably not be rostering them except in a very deep league but you can’t start them.

It seems like Hunter Henry has finally taken over as New England’s tight end. He has played over 70% of the team’s snaps the past two weeks and has run over 20 routes in every game since Week 5. He saw five targets in Week 12 and caught three of them for 63 yards and a touchdown. The Bills are giving up the ninth-fewest points to tight ends at 9.75. They have one of the best cover linebackers in Matt Milano who rates at 71.0 in coverage. I’m not starting Henry this week even if he will be in the TE2 range and I’m certainly not playing Jonnu Smith.