Sit/Start Week 13: Reviewing All Fantasy Relevant Players In Every Single Game

Game Info

Kickoff: Sunday, Dec 4, 8:20 ET

Location: AT&T Stadium, Arlington, TX

Betting Odds: DAL -11.0 43.5 per Caesar’s Sportsbook

Network: NBC

Writer: Michael James (@MikeoftheFF on Twitter)

Indianapolis Colts

Quarterback

Matt Ryan (Sit)

After coming back from a two-week healing process and coaching change, Matt Ryan enters this week averaging about 14 fantasy points per game over that three-game stretch.  He now plays against a Dallas defense that ranks inside the top-five of passing yards allowed and net yards per passing attempt, as well as a slew of top-ten statistics defensively.  This defense has the most sacks in the NFL this season ahead of the number two team by a decent margin as well as leading the NFL in overall quarterback pressure.  Quarterbacks against the Cowboys usually have a higher-than-average number of attempts with lower-than-average yards per attempt as they are getting the ball out as quickly as possible to deal with such a pass rush.  A by-product of that stat is Dallas has the fewest air yards per attempt against them in the league.  Ryan has also only had two games to date scoring higher than 20 points.  When facing a similar defense at home against the Eagles two weeks ago, he came away with nine points in fantasy getting sacked 4 times and throwing zero touchdowns.

Running Backs

Jonathan Taylor (Start, RB2)

Dallas is in the top five for the fewest rushing touchdowns allowed but is far more vulnerable to the rushing attack than they have been to the passing attack on the season.  They rank in the bottom 10 of rushing yards allowed and yards per attempt.  Jonathan Taylor is enjoying a mid-season renewed effort to the Colts’ rushing attack thanks to Coach Saturday’s approach to game planning.  In those three games, Taylor has put up 24, 16, and 19 fantasy points including a touchdown in all three of those matchups.  The Cowboys held their previous two running backs in check (Saquon Barkley and Dalvin Cook) but were gashed heavily by Aaron Jones three weeks ago.  I think Taylor will edge around RB2 numbers as the yards will be lower, but he should find the end zone.

Wide Receivers/Tight Ends

Michael Pittman Jr (Start, WR3), Paris Campbell (Start, WR3), Alec Pierce (Sit), Kylen Granson (Sit), Jelani Woods (Sit), Mo Alie-Cox (Sit)

I don’t think Michael Pittman will earn a Trevon Diggs shadow as Justin Jefferson did, so I think Pittman will get high-end WR3 numbers.  I don’t know if Ryan will have enough time to find Pittman enough volume to be more than a low-end WR2 at most.  Statistically, in their previous matchups, the first receiving option for the team gets about 3-6 catches for 60ish yards on the day.  Benefiting from the lack of time to throw should be Paris Campbell, who I believe can surpass the flex tier into the WR3 tier based on volume alone.  Slot receivers tend to benefit more when the QB is hurried, so that could see a rise in Campbell in this case.  Alec Pierce has not been finding a lot of success lately, I wouldn’t take the risk.

I know Jelani Woods had a breakout game in Kylen Granson‘s absence last week, but Granson and Mo Alie-Cox are now back and healthier while Woods is starting the week already not practicing.  Regardless, the Cowboys are allowing the third-fewest points in fantasy to the tight end position so I think the options here are just too risky.

Dallas Cowboys

Quarterbacks

Dak Prescott (Start, QB2)

The Colts’ defense is no slouch.  We mentioned that Dallas has the fewest air yards allowed in the passing game, and Indianapolis is right behind them in the second slot.  This is a team that has held three of their last four quarterbacks faced under 200 yards (Derek Carr had 250).  They have the 10th most quarterback pressures and sacks on the season in the league.  Dak Prescott might find himself stepping up through the pocket more often than usual because of this.   Since coming back, he’s scored 20+ points in 3 of his last 5 games.  I think he’s going to be borderline high QB2 – low QB1.  He’s had four multiple-touchdown pass games in a row now, the problem is he’s also thrown 5 interceptions in the last four games.

Running Backs

Ezekiel Elliott (Start, RB2/RB1), Tony Pollard (Start, RB2)

Indianapolis has faced the fourth most rushing attempts this season but is tied for the second-fewest rushing yards allowed per attempt.  Heading into last week they had held the last three teams to under 100 yards rushing including the Eagles.  However last week they got hit pretty hard by a Steelers rushing attack featuring Harris and Snell.  Do you know who also has a two-headed rushing attack that is top 10 in the league?  That’s right it’s our dynamic duo Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard.

Dallas has had over 30 team rushing attempts in the last 3 games (29 rushes in the fourth, so yeah) and is proving they can sustain a two fantasy running back approach by volume.   If you take out teams that have not had their bye yet, they are the fifth most attempts as a team.  I give Elliott the nod here because he seems to be the more reliable option in the red zone when both backs are active.  Pollard’s touchdown streak came to an end last week as he failed to get into the end zone after having 6 touchdowns over the previous three weeks.  I’m not backing down though, I still think both running backs are confident starts this week.  (really going out on that limb with that one, I know)

Wide Receivers/ Tight Ends

CeeDee Lamb (Start, WR2), Michael Gallup (Start, Flex), Noah Brown (Sit), Dalton Schultz (Start, TE1)

So by definition, WR1 is a 20-point threshold, and CeeDee Lamb has only hit that 3 times this season, so I don’t think it’s probable that he achieves that against the Colts.  He’s only had one 20+ game since week 5 (38 in Green Bay).  So by definition according to the chart, I believe he will get 16-18 points which makes him a WR2.  He’s only had one game of single-digit fantasy production (9.5) since week 2, so his floor is too good not to start.  Michael Gallup came alive last week but before that has been a solid 7 to 8 points every week.  He is overdue for a touchdown, but I cannot recommend a play based on “dude, trust me” so he will remain as a flex until proven otherwise.

Dalton Schultz is currently tied with a bunch of low-end TE1s and should see his stock rise over the coming weeks as a handful of other tight ends have gone on injured reserve.  He has had double-digit points in four of his last five games since coming back from his injury including 3 touchdowns in the last three games.  For some, he has a pulse and that’s reason enough to start him.