Game Info
Kickoff: Sunday, December 4th, 4:25 PM ET
Location: Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas, Nevada
Betting Odds: LV +3, 51 total via oddshark.com
Network: CBS
Writer: Dustin Ludke (TheDunit13 on Twitter)
Los Angeles Chargers
Quarterback
Justin Herbert (Start, QB1)
Justin Herbert might be having one of the quietest best seasons we have ever season. He is top-five in yards (3004), top-five in touchdowns (19), and top-ten in completion percentage (67.4). He has over 35 passing attempts in all but three games. He now has most of his receiving weapons back on the field and is coming off a three-touchdown game. He gets the Raiders who are giving up the second most point to quarterbacks at 20.95. If there were any questions on whether you start Herbert or not, it’s a clear and resounding yes, and he has a real shot at being the number one overall QB this week.
Running Backs
Austin Ekeler (Start, RB1), Isaiah Spiller (Sit), Joshua Kelley (Sit)
If you just look at the rushing numbers for Austin Ekeler you will be shocked. He only had five carries for 20 yards. It shouldn’t be that shocking. It was his fourth game of the year with under 10 carries. Now his fantasy numbers were still high because of his involvement in the passing game. In his four games where he has had under 10 carries, he averages just under 12 targets. In Week 12 he had 15 targets and caught 11 of them for 60 yards and a score. He has 128 carries on the year and 98 targets. If he has another week of more passing work than rushing work he could finish the season with more targets than carries. He goes against the Raiders who are giving up the fourth most points to running backs at 27.88. I expect it to be a rushing game for Ekeler as the Chargers look to keep Carr and Adams on the sideline. You have to start Ekeler as an RB1.
If you are looking for a back up it’s between Isaiah Spiller and Joshua Kelley. Kelley returned from injury and played on 21% of the snaps. Spiller played on 12%. Since it was a passing heavy game it seemed to lean towards Kelley who saw three targets and Spiller only got one. I think Spiller will be the main handcuff in a normal game script.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
Keenan Allen (Start, WR1), Mike Williams (Sit), Josh Palmer (Start, Flex), Gerald Everett (Start, TE2) DeAndre Carter (Sit, Flex)
It’s a shame we haven’t been able to see this Charger’s passing offense with all its players healthy. Mike Williams is dealing with an ankle injury again so it will be tough for him to make it back this week and even if he does he might not be 100%. I’m not starting him even if he is playing.
Keenan Allen has come back from injury and his snaps have increased in the past two games from 68% to 89%. He got seven targets, catching five for 49 yards and a touchdown. He now faces the Raiders who are giving up the eleventh most points to the wide receiver position at 34.15. He ran 67.3% of his Week 12 routes from the slot position and that would draw coverage from Tyler Hall who rates at 71.2 in limited snaps. Allen should be able to move around and utilize his experience and routing running to get open and continue to lead the team as their number one receiver. Start him as a WR1
Josh Palmer has been playing over 90% of the team’s snaps the past four weeks and is averaging 8.75 targets a game over that stretch. He led the team in Week 12 with 53 routes running. This week he will probably see coverage from either Rock Ya-Sin or Sam Webb. They rate at 64.6 and 51.0 respectively in coverage. Palmer has been able to produce at least flex range weeks every game except two games. He needs to score to truly be a WR1 but you can trust him as a solid WR3.
I’m not starting DeAndre Carter this week. He did play on 80% of the team’s snaps and has been over that threshold the past five games. He ran 44 routes in Week 12 and saw 10 targets. He was able to catch seven of them for 73 yards and a touchdown. It’s his second score in the past three weeks. It’s an outlier stat for Carter who was involved in a very pass-heavy game. He might be in the flex range but he isn’t consistent enough to be trusted.
Part of what makes Carter less involved is the return of tight-end Gerald Everett. He missed the Week 11 game against the Chiefs but returned with four targets, catching all of them for 18 yards. It’s not the best stat line for a tight end that people have been counting on but he did run 32 routes. The Raiders are giving up 13.87 points to tight ends which is the seventh-most. I’m okay starting Everett as a TE2 this week.
Las Vegas Raiders
Quarterback
Derek Carr (Start, QB2)
While the Raider’s record isn’t the greatest Derek Carr has been playing very well. In the past two weeks, he got into QB1 range for the first time this season but has been flirting with it for a while. He did it on under 40 passing attempts. The Chargers are giving up the thirteenth most points to quarterbacks at 17.05. Neither of the two starting corners for the Chargers rate over 65 on PFF.com. Carr has one of the best receivers in the game to throw too and despite the injuries to the other weapons the fill-in players have been doing well with their opportunities. It’s not a horrible matchup for Carr and with the defense not being able to stop people from scoring Carr should have plenty of opportunity to sling the ball and rack up points. He can be started as a solid QB2
Running Backs
Josh Jacobs (Start, RB1)
Well, hot dang. Josh Jacobs was a monster last week. If you didn’t know he had over 300 total yards from scrimmage and two touchdowns. He gets to continue that against the Chargers who are giving up the fourth most points to running backs at 27.88. He has seen over 15 carries in all but three games this year and has had over 20 carries in the past three weeks. The Raiders’ offense runs through Jacobs. He is also involved in the passing game. He has seen five or more targets in five games and outside of Weeks 1 and 2, he has had at least three targets. He isn’t losing work to Ameer Abdullah or Zamir White either. Considering the matchup and usage, you have to start him as an RB1 this week.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
Davante Adams (Start, WR1), Mack Hollins (Start, Flex), Foster Moreau (Sit, TE2)
It doesn’t matter if he is wearing green and gold or black and silver, Davante Adams is a good wide receiver. Besides the fact that he is playing on close to 98% of the team’s snaps on the season, he has seen double-digit targets in each of the past four games. The Chargers are giving up the twelfth fewest points to wide receivers at 31.19. It looks to be a tougher matchup for Adams but in their Week 1 matchup, Adams caught 10 passes for 141 yards and a score. You are starting him as a high-end WR1.
Mack Hollins has been playing on 90% or more of the team’s snaps in eight games this season. While he has had two good weeks in a row, he has been inconsistent on the season. He either needs seven or more targets or a touchdown to produce WR2 numbers or better. He will be covered by either Asante Samuel Jr. or Michael Davis. They rate at 62.2 and 59.0 in coverage respectively. It’s not a great matchup for Hollins. He is leading the team in routes run for the past three weeks. That level of opportunities will keep him in the flex range with an upside. You can start him as a flex this week.
Foster Moreau has filled in for Darrin Waller very well. Waller is eligible to return this week but the Raiders have yet to activate him. Moreau has become the third pass-catching option on the team. He is playing on 95% or more of the snaps since Week 7. He is averaging 5.5 targets a game over that stretch. He has yet to reach TE1 range without scoring a touchdown and doesn’t have a game over 50 yards. He also has to face coverage from Derwin James who rates at 67.3 in coverage and is known for shutting down tight ends like Travis Kelce. I’m going to sit Moreau this week unless you are desperate. James at times gets pulled off tight-end coverage and if the Raiders can get a better matchup he can still be involved.
Thought on Pats DST this week over Minnesota? Could be 4-5 sacks and a couple TO’s no?
I’m sitting the Pats D against Buffalo. I would rather play Minn
got to start one if Fields can’t go – Marcus Mariota or Kenny Pickett
They are so close. I will go with Pickett. Pitts D is giving up the fewest points to quarterbacks while ATL is giving up the 10th most. Both Qbs have some rushing upside. Pickett has 265 passing attempts and Mariota has 276 yet he has played 11 games and Pickett had played 8 but really only 7, higher volume for Pickett and better matchup
You have Davante listed as a WR2 but describe him as a high-end WR1. Which one is it?
He should be a WR1. I updated the article