Game Info
Kickoff: Monday, October 18th at 8:15 PM ET
Location: Nissan Stadium, Nashville, TN
Betting Odds: BUF -6, 54 total via Oddsshark
Network: ESPN
Writer: Bryan Sweet (@FantasyFreakTN on Twitter, @bsweet0us on Reddit)
Buffalo Bills
Quarterback
Josh Allen (Start, QB1)
Through five games, you’d be hard-pressed to convince me that any team is better in the AFC right now than the Buffalo Bills. Josh Allen is heading up the league’s #1 offense as they are averaging an absurd 34.4 points per game and are in the top 10 in both passing (9th with 270 yards per game) and rushing (5th with 140 yards per game). Allen is the driving force behind the passing numbers but also is second on the team in rushing yards (188) and rushing TDs (2). It’s this rushing upside that catapults Allen near the top of the QB rankings every week. Tennessee has faced two mobile QBs already this season in Kyler Murray in Week 1 (289 passing yards, 4 TDs, 20 rushing yards, 1 TD) and Russell Wilson in Week 2 (343 passing yards, 2 TDs, 16 rushing yards) so we have an idea of the damage Allen can do on Monday night. Allen has one of the safest floors in fantasy football and has an incredible ceiling, making him a must-start this week and likely every week this season.
Running Backs
Zack Moss (Start, RB2), Devin Singletary (Sit, low-end Flex)
After being a surprising Week 1 healthy scratch, Zack Moss appears to have taken over the majority of Buffalo’s backfield as he handled 73% of the team’s snaps last week and more than doubled the touches among RBs. Moss has also been an active participant in the passing game, seeing 3+ targets in every game sans the Houston blowout in Week 4. Moss is not going to blow you away with game-breaking speed or elite elusiveness, but he’s going to get four yards every time he touches the ball and might end up in the end zone once or twice. Moss isn’t a sexy RB to plug into your starting lineup, but this offense provides him with a very nice floor though his ceiling is limited because of the other options in the running game. Moss should be good for RB2 production anyways with RB1 upside if he can find the end zone in Week 6.
Buffalo has tried to make Devin Singletary a feature back throughout his career, but he’s just not built for that type of role in the NFL. Singletary has seen Moss slowly eat into more playing time at his expense and now is struggling to get 10+ touches in a game. Last week, Singletary saw a season-low 15 snaps (26%) and only had seven touches for 23 total yards. It was quite a departure from earlier weeks in which the backfield split between Singletary and Moss was closer to 50/50, so it’s hard to say if this will be a theme going forward or if it was an aberration. Singletary has shown he can be productive on limited touches, but volume is king in the NFL and it will be hard for fantasy managers to trust him as a reliable starting option. Singletary should probably not be started this week but might provide enough production for a low-end Flex option with four teams on BYE this week.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
Stefon Diggs (Start, WR1), Cole Beasley (Sit), Emmanuel Sanders (Sit), Dawson Knox (Start, TE1)
It’s been a bit concerning for fantasy managers who drafted Stefon Diggs as he hasn’t been able to produce at the level he did in 2020 so far this season. Diggs has just one 100+ yard receiving game and hasn’t scored a TD since Week 2. This could be a bit of a get-right game for Diggs as Tennessee has been susceptible to big-play receivers this season. Deandre Hopkins (6-83-2), Christian Kirk (5-70-2), Tyler Lockett (8-178-1), Freddie Swain (5-95-1), Corey Davis (4-111-1), and Jamison Crowder (7-61-1) have all had success against the Titans this season, which bodes well for Diggs. Expect WR1-level output from Diggs this week as Buffalo continues to roll towards the playoffs.
Both Cole Beasley and Emmanuel Sanders take a back seat to Diggs in the passing game but provide nice options for Allen that don’t translate necessarily to fantasy football. Beasley has two games this season with 13 targets but has a combined eight targets in the other three. Beasley’s fantasy outlook also suffers from the types of routes he runs as his Average Depth of Target is just 5.4 yards and he doesn’t do much after the catch with a YAC average of just 4.4 yards. Beasley is a better NFL player than a fantasy player and isn’t worthy of a starting spot this week.
Sanders has a chance to produce enough for fantasy managers to consider him as a viable Flex option this week, but I don’t think the volume is there to warrant it. Sanders provides a nice deep threat as his ADoT is an impressive 16 yards but he’s not seeing more than five or six targets per game. Sanders is catching the ball at a 61% clip this season, so his ceiling is around three or four receptions a game. Unless he finds the end zone, Sanders just doesn’t have quite enough to push him above WR40 or so for me. He might be a sneaky good DFS play this week, but I’d sit him in traditional fantasy leagues.
Dawson Knox is quietly putting together a career season and is becoming the second-most valuable part of Buffalo’s passing game. Knox has one or more TDs in each of his last four games and has become Allen’s primary receiving option when the team gets in the red zone. Once you get past the top two or three TEs in fantasy, you’re looking for volume and/or TD upside to gain any advantage you can over your opponent. Knox provides both and looks like a solid starting option for the rest of the season for fantasy managers who were savvy enough to grab him before his breakout.
Tennessee Titans
Quarterback
Ryan Tannehill (Sit)
For the Titans, Ryan Tannehill is an excellent QB. He doesn’t make many mistakes (three INTs) and plays within the confines of the offense. He’s accurate (63% completion percentage) but has enough arm talent to challenge defenses deep when given the opportunity. For fantasy managers, Tannehill is just good enough to carry on your roster but has such a low ceiling you never really feel good about starting him. This week, Tannehill will be facing a defense that ranks second in passing defense (173 passing yards per game) and first in scoring defense (12.8 points per game). Combine the level of Buffalo’s defense with the run-first approach of Tennessee’s offense and potentially lingering injury issues with Tannehill’s top two WRs and it looks like Tannehill will struggle to warrant starting consideration this week. There are worse options as Tennessee will likely have to throw in the second half if the game goes as Vegas expects it, but there are better options as well and I’d recommend fantasy managers bench Tannehill this week in leagues that have one starting QB.
Running Backs
Derrick Henry (Start, RB1)
I mentioned the overall strength of Buffalo’s defense above and that extends to their rush defense as they are third in the NFL allowing just 78 yards per game. Buffalo has surrendered just one TD to an RB this season, and it came via reception. That being said, you kind of have to throw all the stats out the window when it comes to Derrick Henry. Henry has bulldozed his way to a league-leading 640 yards and seven TDs and has seen no fewer than 28 carries in his last four games. In addition, Henry has become a part of the passing game to a level he’s not seen before this season as he’s already totaled 15 targets (his career-high is 31 for a season) and is converting 93% of his targets into receptions. Henry is the engine that runs Tennessee’s offense and simply can’t be benched regardless of the opponent. Set Henry as your RB1 and rest easy with his high floor.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
A.J. Brown (Sit, low-end Flex), Julio Jones/Marcus Johnson (Sit), Anthony Firkser (Sit)
Tannehill had to be ecstatic last week when A.J. Brown returned from a one-week hiatus to mend a hamstring injury. Brown wasn’t needed much as the Titans handled the Jaguars, but a healthy Brown is certainly someone defenses have to keep an eye on. Unfortunately for Brown, he’ll be lining up opposite Tre’Davious White who has become one of the top CBs in the NFL. Buffalo has surrendered just two TD receptions to WRs this season and only one of those was from the team’s #1 WR (Diontae Johnson in Week 1). Brown might see more targets than the six he saw in his return last week, but might not be able to do much with them against White. I’d avoid every part of Tennessee’s passing game this week but I can see enough volume for Brown to sneak into the low-end of the WR3 range and does present some Flex value given his physicality and run after the catch ability. Temper your expectations for Brown this week.
A hamstring injury has also kept Julio Jones off the field for the last two weeks and, unfortunately, his status for this week is still up in the air. With this game being played on Monday night, it may be Saturday before we know anything for sure regarding his status so fantasy managers will want to keep an eye on practice reports for the next two days. Even if Jones is determined healthy enough to play, I struggle with recommending him in a week in which he’s returning from injury and against a very good defense. If Jones is ruled out, Marcus Johnson would seem to be his replacement. Johnson had a nice game last week (3-52), but that matchup is nowhere near as difficult as this one. Johnson should be on your bench as well even if he starts.
If nothing else, Anthony Firkser has improved in every game this season. However, his best game is still just three receptions for 33 yards. Buffalo has been the weakest against the TE position as both Logan Thomas and Travis Kelce have scored against them, but I don’t think anyone would confuse Firkser for either of those two. Firkser just hasn’t been able to generate the trust and red zone connection Jonnu Smith had with Tannehill last season and this game is not one to target building a rapport in. Keep Firkser on your bench in Week 6.