Game Info
Kickoff: Sunday, October 17th at 4:25 PM ET
Location: Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, MA
Betting Odds: -4 DAL, 50.5 total via Oddsshark
Network: CBS
Writer: Marc Salazar (@oldsnake77 on Twitter and Reddit)
Dallas Cowboys
Quarterback
Dak Prescott (Start, QB1)
Coming into the season the Cowboys coaching staff talked a lot about finding balance in the offense, with roots in running the ball. After throwing the ball 42 times in Week 1, fantasy managers thought that was coach speak, but now five weeks in we are starting to realize they meant what they said. In each of the past four weeks, the Cowboys have run the ball 48% of the time or more, and in Week 3 they ran the ball 54% of offensive snaps. Dak Prescott has still scored 24.5 fantasy points or more in four of five games thanks to two key metrics. First, the Cowboys are playing at a fast pace, third in plays per game, and are among the lead leaders in TD efficiency. Prescott may not have enough passing opportunity to compete for the overall QB1 but he is a low-end top 12 every week starter, and with a plethora of options at receiver he will be a solid start again this week.
Running Backs
Ezekiel Elliott (Start, RB1), Tony Pollard (Start, Flex)
Ezekiel Elliott looks like the Zeke of old, and the Cowboys are using him intelligently. The Cowboys have been so content on sticking with the run game because the offensive line has been so dominant in run blocking. The Dallas offensive line leads the league in Football Outsiders Adjusted Line Yards stat, are being stuffed behind the line just 12% of carries (2nd in the league), and lead the league in springing backs for 5-10 yard gains. Zeke is seeing a massive opportunity as a ball carrier and is the overall RB5. All of this in while seeing less opportunity than any point in his career. Last week he played in just 60% of the team’s offensive snaps. Continue to ride Zeke, the Cowboys sure will.
Lightning to Zeke’s thunder, Tony Pollard is 10th in the league with 325 rushing yards, and averaging 6.4 yards per carry. He has added 12 receptions. Pollard is explosive when he touches the ball, and anyone who pays attention to Cowboys football knows that the team wants to run their offense through two running backs. Pollard is currently the overall RB20 despite scoring just once in five weeks. Expect that number to rise as the season rolls along, and Pollard is an every-week Flex option this week and moving forward. The team won’t be putting Pollard on the shelf anytime soon and he is exactly what Zero RB drafters are looking for in a back.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
Amari Cooper (Start, WR2), CeeDee Lamb (Start, WR2), Dalton Schultz (Start, TE1)
This Cowboys receiving corps has been hard to pin down early in the season but they remain productive, however, the Cowboys’ insistence on running the ball has capped the value of Amari Cooper and Ceedee Lamb. Cooper is currently the WR15, thanks in part to four receiving touchdowns, while Lamb is the WR23, catching just one touchdown. Still, both players are every week mid-range WR2 options based on how well Dak is playing and their talent. Cooper and Lamb’s peripheral numbers are eerily similar and managers shouldn’t expect one to pull away as the lead receiver. Both belong in your lineup every week, and should not be on your bench.
What is most surprising early in the season is the team’s usage of Dalton Schultz. Schultz has earned six targets in four of five games and is earning a target on 23% of his routes run, which leads the team. The overall TE4 has also caught three touchdowns and could have punched another in with a little luck. While it is hard to expect this sort of production to continue every week, Schultz is a clear every-week fantasy option this week and moving forward.
New England Patriots
Quarterback
Mac Jones (Sit, QB2)
Rookie quarterback Mac Jones has been a breath of fresh air for the NFL, and as impressive early in the season as any first-year signal-caller. However, that hasn’t translated into fantasy production for managers. Jones has not thrown for 300+ yards yet and has just one multi-touchdown game in five starts. Jones, currently the overall QB27, is a decent start in 2QB leagues but cannot be trusted as an every-week starter in traditional leagues. Still, he should be held in dynasty formats while he continues to grow in this offense.
Running Backs
Damien Harris (Sit, Flex), Rhamondre Stevenson (Sit, Flex), Branden Bolden (Sit)
Fantasy managers will want to keep an eye on practice reports and monitor the status of Damien Harris. Harris left last week’s game with a rib injury, returned, only to exit with a chest injury. Early reports indicate that he is fine and should be ready to go in Week 6. Should he be unable to suit up, Rhamondre Stevenson will be the primary benefactor as an early-down back. Still, this is a difficult matchup against a Cowboys rush defense that is only allowing 12 points per game to the position, 5th in the league. Dallas has allowed just two touchdowns to the position, one rushing and one receiving, to backs in five weeks. Both players should be on your bench this week unless you are desperate for a body.
After James White landed on season-ending IR, Brandon Bolden handled long down and distance snaps, and all of the work in the two-minute offense. However, he was mostly invisible and managers should monitor the situation for another week before making roster and lineup decisions on Bolden. While he did receive five targets, it is just hard to trust him at this point.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
Jakobi Meyers (Start, WR3), Nelson Agholor (Sit), Hunter Henry (Start, Low-end TE1), Jonnu Smith (Sit)
The Patriots have struggled to see production from this receiving corps. Jakobi Meyers is leading the team in targets but only earning an 11.2 aDot. Currently the overall WR30, Meyers is the best of a limited depth chart of pass catchers. Meyers could see a solid performance this week and should be in lineups as a WR3 with hopes that he finds the end-zone as a receiver for the first time in his career. The Dallas pass defense is creating turnovers but they have also allowed five individual receivers 100+ yards so far. Nelson Agholor has been almost invisible, and most of that is because Mac Jones is not pushing the ball down the field. He belongs on the waiver wire until that changes.
At tight end, the fantasy options are not much better. Jonnu Smith has been relegated to a pass blocker, last week running routes on just 18% of team snaps, and at just 33% on the season. While Smith does lead the team in targets per route run, the limited opportunities are impossible to trust for managers. Hunter Henry had a solid Week 5, his second straight weekly TE1 finish, and it seems like he will continue to operate as the primary pass-catching tight end in this offense. Henry is running routes on 65% of his offensive snaps, and that is a solid number for a fantasy TE. Henry is a low-end starter this week, against a Cowboys defense that is 25th in the league defending the position.
-Marc Salazar (@oldsnake77)