Game Info
Kickoff: Sunday, October 17th at 1:00 PM ET
Location: Ford Field, Detroit, MI
Betting Odds: -3.5 CIN, 47.5 total via Oddsshark
Network: FOX
Writer: Marc Salazar (@oldsnake77 on Twitter and Reddit)
Cincinnati Bengals
Quarterback
Joe Burrow (Start in Superflex, QB2)
Last week the Bengals lost a wild game at home against the Packers, a game where Joe Burrow was admitted to the hospital after suffering a throat contusion injury. Reports are that Burrow is fine and will be in the lineup this week, which is good news for the Bengals trio of wide receivers. Burrow has played like a fantastic franchise quarterback early in the year, but the team insists on running the ball despite a strength at the receiver position. Cindy is 30th in plays per game, 27th in pass percentage of snaps, and they are 30th in pass attempts while trailing. Until those numbers start to rise, Burrow should be considered a mid-range QB2, an excellent start in 2QB leagues, but not a Top 12 option in most weeks.
Running Backs
Joe Mixon (Start, RB2 if fully healthy), Samaje Perine (Start, Flex if Mixon limited)
Joe Mixon returned from an ankle injury but received limited snaps, just 28% on the day. Mixon salvaged his day with a late touchdown but fantasy managers will want to pay attention to practice reports this week to get a clearer picture. As mentioned, the Bengals are clearly of the mindset of establishing the run, and the Lions present a great matchup, allowing nearly 25 points per game to the position. However, Mixon has finished as weekly RB3 for four straight weeks after an explosive Week 1. If Mixon is a go, he is a must-start but managers with options at RB could slot him into the Flex to mitigate the risk of reinjury. Samaje Perine had a solid Week 5 as the clear backup to Mixon. Perine should remain productive and is a solid flex play if Mixon is limited in practice again this week. Perine caught four of five targets, while carried the ball 11 times for 59 yards.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
Ja’Marr Chase (Start, WR1), Tee Higgins (Start, Flex), Tyler Boyd (Start, Flex), C.J. Uzomah (Sit)
Rookie Ja’Marr Chase has established himself as a true alpha and is commanding a 24% target share on a team full of great receivers. Last week Chase dominated the Packers secondary and scored his fifth touchdown on the season. Chase has been highly efficient in his targets, and if anything levels out it will be his ridiculous touchdown rate. However, we could be seeing a true outlier rookie season and is squarely a WR1 the rest of the way.
Both Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd are outstanding receivers that are competing for targets after Chase. Higgins has battled minor injuries but it is concerning that he is seeing just 16% of the target share and 17% of the air yards on the season. Those numbers will need to rise before managers can trust Higgins as an every-week WR2. This week he is a solid Flex play, he made it through a full game without reinjury and is simply too good to be held down long. Boyd is seeing plenty of playing time and the Bengals target share is heavily concentrated between these three options. Boyd remains a possession receiver, with an aDot of just 5.7 yards. Still, Boyd should see enough volume this week in a competitive game to be a Flex option.
C.J. Uzomah has just 13 targets on the season and is 24th in tight end receptions. He has scored twice and is a touchdown dependant shot in the dark for managers that are searching for a long-shot option.
Detroit Lions
Quarterback
Jared Goff (Sit in 1QB, QB2 in 2QB)
The Detroit Lions have played from three or more points behind more than any team in the league. This had lead to negative game scripts where the team is forced to throw the ball late in games. Jared Goff is fifth in the league in attempts and seventh in completions, yet just the QB18 on the season. However, Goff has finished as a weekly QB1 in three of five weeks. Goff is a solid option for managers playing in Superflex, not because he has played well but because he has of expected volume. This week should be a closer, low-scoring game, but he should see enough volume to pay off as a QB2.
Running Backs
D’Andre Swift (Start, RB1), Jamaal Williams (Start, Flex)
The Detroit Lions have established a clear backfield committee, with D’Andre Swift dominating passing game work while Jamaal Williams is receiving consistent touches as the two-down ball carrier. Swift was explosive in his opportunities and has established himself as one of the more dynamic backs with the ball in his hand. The Lions are also feeding him with high-value opportunities (rush attempts plus receptions inside the opponent’s 10-yard line). Swift is second in the league with 29 HVT’s on the season and there is no sign that his usage in this area will slow down. Swift is an RB1 this week, against a Bengals team that is allowing eight receptions and 50 yards to the running backs. Williams is also a solid Flex play this week, as some teams are on bye and looking for options. Williams is averaging 10+ carries per game and seeing a solid amount of targets in the passing game.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
Amon-Ra St. Brown (Start, Flex), Kalif Raymond (Sit), T.J. Hockenson (Start, Low-end TE1)
With injuries piling up to this Lions receiving corps, rookie Amon-Ra St. Brown is earning 24% of the team’s targets in the last two weeks. St. Brown caught seven of eight targets for 65 yards last week and his role should only increase as the season moves on. St. Brown’s peripheral numbers have been solid and managers could do worse in searching for a flex option this week. The rest of the receivers can be ignored for now. Kalif Raymond ran plenty of wind sprints last week but failed to produce.
At tight end, teams have begun to focus on taking away T.J. Hockenson at all costs. This week Hock will face a Cincy defense that has been solid against the position. So far, the Bengals are allowing just three receptions and 30 yards per game to tight ends and have allowed just one score. However, after three weeks of failing to get Hock involved in the passing attack, look for the Lions to find ways to free Hockenson up for big plays. He is a low-end TE1 this week and should be in your lineups.
-Marc Salazar (@oldsnake77)