Game Info
Kickoff: Sunday, October 17th at 8:20 PM ET
Location: Heinz Field, Pittsburgh, PA
Betting Odds: PIT -4.5, 42.5 total via Oddsshark
Network: NBC
Writer: Adam Sloate (@MrAdster99 on Twitter and Reddit)
Seattle Seahawks
Quarterback
Geno Smith (Sit)
Smith took over as QB1 when Russell Wilson went down with a finger injury in last week’s game. Upon taking over, Smith posted a mediocre line of 10/17 for 131 yards, 1 TD, and 1 INT. Zooming out to a larger view of Smith’s career, Smith has not thrown more than 40 passes in a season since 2015. In his last 3 seasons (2018, 2020, 2021), Smith has tossed just 26 passes for 172 yards (and the 1 TD and 1 INT from last week). So, he really hasn’t taken a ton of starting reps since leaving the Giants in 2017, much to Ben McAdoo’s dismay. That almost certainly will work against Smith this week and it certainly worked against him against the Rams. Last week, Smith was taking over in the middle of the game and faced a strong(ish) Rams defense, but it’s not like Smith is going to have it so much easier this week against a tough Steelers front.
The other question is the line protection that Smith probably won’t have. Is Smith going to be able to produce standing behind Seattle’s atrocious offensive line (26th in adjusted sack rate), play after play? My guess is no, as Smith seems to be removed from extending too many plays with his legs and probably isn’t going to be able to dissect the Steelers’ defense with the 0.24 seconds he is allotted by the offensive line protection. Additionally, Smith doesn’t have the improvisation ability or mobility of Russell Wilson, which may have helped to buoy some of the offensive line’s numbers this season and helped raise the fantasy value of players like DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, and others, so I don’t have high hopes for old Geno.
Running Backs
Chris Carson (Start, FLEX), Alex Collins (Sit)
It looks like Chris Carson will be back this week after a neck injury kept him out of last week’s game. He skipped practice Wednesday but it was reported that Carson would return to practice on Thursday, which I assume is a significant step towards playing on Sunday. Carson has put up some real stinkers of games, including his previous outing in Week 4. If you believe in patterns, Carson has alternated between averaging 5+ yards per carry in odd-numbered weeks and sub-3 yards per carry in even-numbered weeks. Going beyond patterns, though, if Carson is healthy this week, it seems like Pete Carroll and Co. will lean a little heavier on the ground game to support Geno Smith under center. That means the opportunities for Carson will be there, even if he is running into a less-than-ideal matchup with this season’s 6th-ranked rushing defense. You have to go with the opportunities over the matchup, though, as one TD or a couple of catches from Carson will negate any concerns over the subpar matchup with a good defense.
If Carson is out, Alex Collins will likely step into a similar role. Collins picked up 47 yards on 15 carries (75% of RB carries) last week against the Rams and would hopefully be in line for a similar share of the total carries if Carson were to miss time.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
Tyler Lockett (Start, WR3), DK Metcalf (Start, WR3), Will Dissly (Sit), Freddie Swain (Sit), Gerald Everett (Sit)
I’m going to give Lockett and Metcalf tentative WR3 rankings this week because there is a lot up in the air with Geno Smith under center, as opposed to Russ. You should still start them if you have them, as the talent is way too good to ignore (plus Smith still targeted them when he was under center) and I assume that Carroll and Co. are going to find ways to get the ball into the hands of their playmakers, regardless of the QB. Until we see Smith completely tank their fantasy value, don’t bench these guys, but temper expectations for fantasy production.
This matchup is not particularly inviting for Lockett and Metcalf, especially considering the reputation and talent of this Pittsburgh defense. However, PFF seems to think they have a fairly good matchup (Metcalf’s matchup was rated “good” by PFF, Lockett’s was rated “average”), so I guess they have that going for them, which is nice.
Will Dissly and Freddie Swain saw a couple of targets with Smith under center. Dissly, with Everett out and Smith under center last week, saw a whopping 4 (!!) targets, reeling in a pair of them for 29 total yards. Unfortunately, despite the increased attention from Smith, Dissly seems to be a TE you can comfortably leave on the waiver wire, especially now that Gerald Everett has been reinstated from the COVID/Illness list and is expected to be available for this game. The same goes for Swain, who saw a little bit of action from Smith in the second half, but until we can see Smith in action for a game or two, these guys should be on the waiver wire in all but the deepest of leagues.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Quarterback
Ben Roethlisberger (Start, QB2), Mason Rudolph (Sit)
I’ve included Rudolph because Roethlisberger is listed as ‘questionable’ for the time being and didn’t practice Wednesday because of a hip/pectoral injury. I expect Roethlisberger to play (because he usually does), but if for some reason he can’t go, then Rudolph is one of those starting QBs you can leave on the waiver wire.
We know Big Ben doesn’t really have ‘it’ much anymore, but last week’s game against the Broncos made it look like he could turn in a decent fantasy game if presented with the right matchup. I’m not sure I would have predicted 250 passing yards and 2 TDs against the projected 7th-best defense in football, but football is completely random, right?
At any rate, Ben looks to have most of his talented receivers at his disposal (Tough luck for the Smith-Schuster fans out there), Najee Harris for dump-offs, and Eric Ebron for anything else left. And, he finally gets the opportunity to play against a defense that isn’t ranked in the top half of the league in pass DVOA thus far. Ben shouldn’t face overwhelming pressure very often, as the Seahawks don’t generate a ton of sacks and don’t put a ton of pressure on opposing QBs, according to ESPN’s Pass Rush Win Rate. This is good news, as Ben may not have to get rid of the ball in 2.3 seconds every single time he drops back to throw, which should increase opportunities for fantasy points downfield.
The reason Roethlisberger is slotted in at QB2 is because he just simply doesn’t throw it deep these days. Yes, he has 195 passing attempts (buoyed by a monstrous 58 pass attempts against Cincinnati in Week 3) thus far, tying him for 6th among all starting QBs, but the average yards per completion sits at a paltry 6.6 yards (7th-worst among all starting QBs not named Ryan Fitzpatrick). The passing attempts are encouraging, but when paired with a low YPC and a below-average completion rate, Roethlisberger isn’t going to rack up the yardage, so he depends on TDs to return any semblance of fantasy value (more so than other QBs). I could see it happening this week, especially against a subpar Seahawks defense; Roethlisberger could rack up 1 or 2 TDs by halftime. Or, those red zone opportunities could go to his RBs.
Running Backs
Najee Harris (RB1, Start)
This week will be the Najee Harris show. It’s been the Najee Harris show thus far, but this week, against a Seahawks defense that ranks 20th in Adjusted Line Yards and otherwise struggles to make contact with RBs at the line of scrimmage, Harris might actually be able to rack up some yardage on the ground! The NFL’s most targeted running back (speaking of being buoyed by big games, he did indeed have 19 targets in Week 3) seems to have a pretty safe floor, but being able to add a little more on the ground — plus, what should be a handful of red zone opportunities if all goes right with the projected game script — means Harris should be in for quite a night. He’s a must-start regardless of who’s under center.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
Diontae Johnson (WR1), Chase Claypool (WR2), James Washington (WR4), Eric Ebron (Sit), Pat Freiermuth (Sit)
Let’s do a little bit of comparison between Johnson and Claypool:
Both have been excellent this season, with Johnson just barely beating Claypool in terms of fantasy points per game. And, these numbers have been accumulated even with Juju Smith-Schuster racking up 28 total targets. With no Smith-Schuster for the remainder of the season, Claypool and Johnson should be started regardless of matchup. However, the point of this exercise was to show you that Johnson is the WR1 of the offense and while I love what Claypool has done this season, he is just a smidge below Johnson in my rankings for a reason. It was a tough call not bumping Claypool up to WR1 status this week, but I think that the volume of quality targets this week just won’t be enough for Claypool and Johnson to both achieve WR1 status, assuming that the Steelers grab the lead early and hold on by feeding the ball mostly to Harris. If one of them is going to reach WR1 status, I think it will be Johnson, not Claypool.
Washington I like as a WR3 in deep leagues or a WR4 because I assume he will soak up some of the targets that would normally go to Smith-Schuster. Washington will likely be utilized on the outside, while Claypool and Johnson get moved into the slot periodically to replace Smith-Schuster’s role. As an outside receiver, he might see a deeper target depth, but targets are targets and Washington will probably see enough of them to do a little something. I think it’s a little too early in the season (with a new offensive coordinator) to make sweeping predictions of how the Steelers will structure their offense, but I’ll need to see more from Washington before he gets anything more than deep-league WR consideration. He should be on your radar, though, and potentially worth an end-of-bench spot on a roster.
Don’t try to galaxy-brain your way into starting Eric Ebron or Pat Freiermuth.
— Adam Sloate (@MrAdster99 on Twitter and Reddit)