Game Info
Kickoff: Thursday, October 14th at 8:20 PM ET
Location: Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia, PA
Betting Odds: TB -7, 51.5 total via Oddsshark
Network: NFLN
Writer: Bryan Sweet (@FantasyFreakTN on Twitter, @bsweet0us on Reddit)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Quarterback
Tom Brady (Start, QB1)
Was there ever any expectation other than to start Tom Brady? Brady continues to deny Father Time as he has piloted the Buccaneers to a league-best 349 passing yards per game and has 15 passing TDs through five weeks. He has an arsenal of weapons at his disposal and is arguably playing the best football he has in years. Brady has the sixth-most passing yards through the first five games in NFL history and is his second-best start after his 2011 campaign. Brady does have more passing TDs than that 2011 season in which he finished with 5,235 yards and 39 TDs. Philadelphia’s pass defense has been stingy, allowing the third-fewest passing yards per game at 194, and has yet to allow more than 271 yards in any game. They have surrendered 10 passing TDs on the season, however, and Tampa Bay is second to just Kansas City with 15 passing TDs. Brady already has a Thursday game under his belt this season as he torched the Cowboys in Week 1 for 379 yards and four TDs. Start him.
Running Backs
Leonard Fournette (Start, RB2), Ronald Jones (Sit), Giovani Bernard (Sit)
If you check the official depth chart for the Buccaneers, you’ll see Leonard Fournette listed as the team’s RB2 yet he has dominated snaps the past two weeks and led the team in snaps in both Week 1 and Week 2, albeit by a smaller margin. Fournette is the preferred back for the team and the usage shows it. Fournette has topped 100 total yards in each of the past two weeks and is also an integral part of the team’s passing game, seeing five targets over that time. Fournette found the end zone for the first time last week and should continue to see favorable matchups given the multitude of ways the Buccaneers can attack on offense. Tampa Bay’s rushing attack takes a backseat to the potent passing game, but Fournette should see enough opportunities and open rushing lanes to return RB2 value this week.
Ronald Jones and Giovani Bernard were both intriguing later-round options in fantasy drafts heading into this season because of the powerful Tampa Bay offense, but neither has made much of an impact on the season. Jones has yet to total 100 rushing yards for the season and seems to have been relegated to the doghouse after a fumble in Week 1. Jones has seen fewer than 15 snaps in each of the last three games and there is no reason to expect a sudden increase with the way this offense is humming along. Bernard has been dinged up with minor injuries but returned to action last week to a minimal role. Bernard has carried the ball just four times on the season and has 17 targets, so the volume just isn’t there for him to be trusted by fantasy managers. Unless Fournette misses time, neither Jones nor Bernard is worth starting this week.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
Mike Evans (Start, WR2), Chris Godwin (Start, WR2), Antonio Brown (Start, WR3/Flex), Rob Gronkowski (Sit), Cameron Brate (Sit)
The Buccaneers are on pace to have a trio of WRs eclipse the 1,000-yard mark and, through five games, the best of the group has been Mike Evans. Evans leads the team in targets (45), receptions (29), receiving yards (393), and receiving TDs (4). Evans also rarely leaves the field as he’s been on the field for nearly 84% of the team’s snaps this season. Evans is a huge red-zone target with his 6-foot, 5-inch frame and is a trusted target for Brady when they approach the end zone. Brady has shown he can support multiple WRs in any game and fantasy managers with Evans on their roster should lock him in as a solid WR2 in Week 6.
Trailing just behind Evans in every statistical category is Chris Godwin. Godwin has seen 41 targets, has matched Evans with 29 receptions and has turned them into 366 yards and two TDs. Godwin also rarely leaves the field, edging out Evans as Godwin has been on the field for 89% of the team’s snaps this season. Godwin has been very consistent over the last four games, with no less than 55 yards and no more than 74 yards in any of them. Godwin has seen his Average Depth of Target dip below 10 yards for the first time in his career, limiting his upside some. He still carries a nice floor in PPR leagues because the team passes so much but doesn’t carry the upside of Evans. Expect a slightly lower WR2 finish for Godwin when compared to Evans but is still a solid play this week.
Despite seeing just 50% of Tampa Bay’s snaps, Antonio Brown is showing the traits that made him the overall #1 WR during his time in Pittsburgh. Brown is averaging a career-best 16.3 yards per reception and is seeing plenty of targets despite his low snap percentage. Brown generally draws favorable coverage working from the slot as he is too fast for LBs and safeties to cover him with any success. Brown is also seeing some downfield throws as his Average Depth of Target is just over 10 yards, taking advantage of his speed and playmaking ability. For fantasy managers, Brown simply doesn’t see enough snaps to justify ranking him as high as his teammates. Brown has enough speed and elusiveness to land as a startable option on minimal targets, but treat him as a viable WR3 or Flex and enjoy any additional he provides.
It’ll be another 10 days before we see Rob Gronkowski back on the field with Brady as Gronkowski has been ruled out for a third consecutive week. Reports early this week indicated Gronkowski might be ready to go tonight, but it makes sense for the team and trainers to give him the extra time to get back close to 100%.
Cameron Brate will once again step into the role of the #1 TE for Tampa Bay, but his production over the last two weeks leaves a lot to be desired. Brate only has three receptions for 41 yards during that time and is the fourth option at best in the passing game. Fantasy managers thin at the TE position might be forced to run him out there, but don’t expect much. Sit him unless he’s your only option this week.
Philadelphia Eagles
Quarterback
Jalen Hurts (Start, QB1)
Despite playing behind a patchwork offensive line and throwing primarily to youngsters, Jalen Hurts looks to be a fine option for fantasy managers this week. The most glaring deficiency for the defending Super Bowl champion Buccaneers is their secondary as they are dead last in the NFL allowing 314 passing yards per game. Hurts is not polished as a passer, but he has limited mistakes and played well enough to be a legitimate starting option in every game this season because of his rushing upside. Hurts is good for 8-10 rushes per game and has a nose for the end zone as he has three rushing TDs on the season. Tampa Bay has been the best against the run this season, but Hurts does have the ability and weapons to attack the secondary and always is a threat to get yards on the ground if a play breaks down. Hurts should be on the attack frequently as Tampa Bay are heavy favorites and should produce QB1 numbers for fantasy managers this week.
Running Backs
Miles Sanders (Start, RB2), Kenneth Gainwell (Sit, low-end Flex)
It seems as if Miles Sanders is allergic to the end zone this season as the third-year RB has yet to hit paydirt through the team’s first five games. Sanders is seeing plenty of opportunities, but the majority of them are coming in the passing game as Philadelphia has almost abandoned the run the last three weeks, electing to run on just 29% of the time. Sanders is more of a volume play this week as Tampa Bay has been the best defense in the NFL against the run, allowing a paltry 45 rushing yards per game. Sanders likely won’t provide much more than that on the ground but regularly sees a handful of targets in the passing game, giving his floor a little boost. Fantasy managers should lean on Sanders as a mid-RB2 and hope for his first score(s) of the season in Week 6.
With what we know about how well the Buccaneer defense plays the run and how often the Eagles look to pass, it could make for an interesting opportunity for rookie RB Kenneth Gainwell. Gainwell has supplanted Boston Scott as Philadelphia’s receiving back and popped onto the fantasy community’s radar following the Week 4 game against Kansas City in which he totaled 89 yards and one TD on just nine touches. Gainwell will see about half the snaps Sanders will, but he has enough upside with his involvement in the passing game to garner consideration as a Flex option with four teams on BYE this week. Don’t expect a game-changing performance from Gainwell, but 8-10 touches might be enough to push him into the RB3/Flex territory this week.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
DeVonta Smith (Start, WR2), Jalen Reagor (Sit), Quez Watkins (Sit), Zach Ertz (Start, TE1)
When he was drafted in the first round of the 2021 NFL Draft, DeVonta Smith immediately walked into a situation in which he was all but guaranteed a healthy target share due to the other options in Philadelphia’s passing game. Perhaps it’s an indictment of just how lackluster Philadelphia’s WRs were last year when the target leader from 2020 (Greg Ward with 79) isn’t even starting this season. Smith has been far and away Hurts’ favorite target so far this season as Smith’s 39 targets are 14 more than anyone else on the roster. Smith has a couple of less-than-stellar games in Weeks 2 and 3 but has been very good the last two weeks with 14 receptions and 199 yards on 18 targets. Again, this looks like another pass-heavy game script for Philadelphia and Smith should be the primary beneficiary. Look for Smith to continue to build on his last two games and finish within the WR2 ranks in Week 6.
The other WRs suffer from the attention Philadelphia’s TEs get from Hurts in the passing game and are too inconsistent to trust every week. Quez Watkins is a second-year WR that has made some big plays for the Eagles this season but just simply doesn’t see enough targets to be reliable. Watkins has just one game with under a 100% catch rate, but he’s only had one game with more than three targets. Watkins has done a lot with a little, averaging an unsustainable 20.5 yards per reception but splash plays don’t garner fantasy starts. Until he starts to see his role grow within the passing game, Watkins is a sit for me.
Joining Watkins as a second-year WR is last year’s first-round pick Jalen Reagor and is a regular part of the offense as he trails only Smith with 25 targets on the season. I hope it’s not a trend, but Reagor has failed to record 10 receiving yards in both of the even-numbered weeks (Week 2 and Week 4) this season and tonight is the team’s third. While Reagor has gotten more chances than Watkins, he’s done less with them and that may lead Hurts to look away from him more as the season goes on. Being the third or fourth option in this passing offense doesn’t warrant enough attention from fantasy managers and Reagor should be sat in fantasy leagues this week.
On Tuesday, it was reported that Dallas Goedert would be entering the NFL’s COVID-19 protocol with a positive test which will make him ineligible for tonight’s game and potentially the team’s Week 7 game as well. Goedert’s absence means more opportunities for his running mat Zach Ertz. As recently as 2019, Ertz was in the conversation as a legitimate top-five TE in fantasy football, but injuries and the emergence of Goedert made Ertz an afterthought in 2020. Assuming Ertz sees the majority of the average volume Philadelphia’s TEs have seen through five games, we can project 8-10 targets and 6-7 receptions for Ertz with TD upside. Given the uncertainty at the position in fantasy football outside of a handful of guys, Ertz should finish with TE1-numbers this week based on volume alone.