Game Info
Kickoff: Sunday, December 3, 8:20 pm EST
Location: Lambeau Field, Green Bay, WI
Betting Odds: Chiefs -6.5 O/U 42.5 Total via PFF.com
Network: FOX
Writer: Matt Prendergast (@amazingmattyp on X/Twitter)
Kansas City Chiefs
Quarterback
Patrick Mahomes (Start, QB1)
Statistically, over the past month’s worth of games, Patrick Mahomes has brought us one game over 20 points, two games in the QB2 sweet spot of 15-17 points, and a 5.6-point upchuck against the Denver Broncos a month ago. The Green Bay Packers still boast a pass defense that is eighth in the league in total yardage allowed. What does this all mean? Absolutely nothing. I’m literally just typing some words here so it fills up some space and you feel like you have filled some time. You have Patty Mahomes, you play him. Don’t get cute. Green Bay gave up 324 passing yards to the Lions last week, 90 of which were to Kalif Freaking Raymond. This might be a shootout; I expect another 20-plus point performance from Number 15 this week.
Running Backs
Isiah Pacheco (Start, RB2)
I keep thinking I’ve typed his name wrong, but then I triple-check, and nope, that’s correct. Feels like I’m missing a vowel in here somewhere, but I guess not. Anyhow, Isiah Pacheco is possibly the most flex-spot-destined starting RB going this year, particularly for a guy who doesn’t really lose any significant carries to either of the other dudes who play his position. However, he has a wonderful matchup on tap against a defense that allowed a combined 125 yards on the ground to last week’s Lions twofer, with a touchdown added on, plus an additional 19 yards in the air to Jahmyr Gibbs. While Pacheco does cede some work to his backfield mates, he’s still the RB13 in fantasy this year and has logged 58 percent of the offensive snaps. He should get plenty of opportunities this week. Meanwhile, neither Clyde Edwards-Helaire nor Jerick McKinnon participates in enough team activities to constitute “deserving a spot in the sub-header” anymore. Sorry, fellas.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
Travis Kelce (Start, TE1), Rashee Rice (Start, WR3), Marquez Valdes-Scantling/Skyy Moore/Kadarius Toney/Mecole Hardman/Justin Watson (No Thank You)
Travis Kelce – Yes. Let’s not waste time here. Granted, he hasn’t been a world destroyer over the last month, but you do not have a better option if you have him on your roster. Quay Walker will give him some fits across the middle here and there, but Kelce is still the best receiver KC has going; set him and forget him. I’m NEARLY tempted to project Rashee Rice as a WR2 here, but I’m trying to balance out the excitement of his breakout week against the Las Vegas Raiders with a healthy dose of “that was one game, man…relax.” But Rice led the Chiefs in targets (10 to Kelce’s 7), and yardage (107 to Kelce’s 91) and scored his fifth touchdown of the year. More importantly, he looked like a real weapon for Patrick Mahomes, one that’s been desperately needed by this offense. I still need to see another week of heavy usage, but with bye weeks hitting this week (doesn’t it feel late for those?), I wouldn’t hate having to slide him into a WR2 slot. I don’t think he’ll repeat quite the same level of performance, though.
As for the grab bag of mediocrity that is the remainder of this receiver room, I would have to assume that if you are entertaining the possibility of starting Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Skyy Moore, Kadarius Toney, or Mecole Hardman, you are either a) immorally jockeying for draft position in a dynasty league, b) a believer in faith and miracles, or c) out of options and four beers deep on a Sunday morning. Get it together, man! None of these crapsacks has scored seven points in over a month. I know I risk blasphemy against the reigning Super Bowl Champions here, but this might be the saddest pile of underperformance and wasted cap space that an NFL team could conceivably put together. If they didn’t keep putting Mahomes, Kelce, and Rice out there, you’d assume they were intentionally tanking. Oh, and if you’re considering starting Justin Watson, you’re in desperate need of 7 points and are hoping the past two weeks are enough to constitute a trend. Bless your heart.
Green Bay Packers
Quarterback
Jordan Love (Start, QB2)
It has been spectacular the past two weeks seeing Jordan Love finally start to gel with this young Packer offense and put a few things together. It gives me a lot of warm fuzzy feelings about hope for the future and whatnot. Let me tell you this: let that warmth carry you for another day or two at most. because it’s not going to repeat itself this week. The Detroit Lions have a bottom-half pass defense. The preceding week’s Los Angeles Chargers can be found in the league’s bottom two in yards allowed; these two defenses have ceded 21 and 19 touchdowns respectively to opponents’ passing games. Conversely, the Kansas City Chiefs have allowed a total of only 1943 yards to opponents all season (176.6 per game) and yielded 13 touchdowns, tied for ninth-best in the league.
I’m all for feel-good stories, but common sense tells me that Love is going to have a rough week here. If you’ve got an alternative option and you’ve been waffling back and forth with him all season long, this might be a good week to leave him on the bench. If you’re a true believer, and just love the guy and his upswing the past couple of weeks, by all means, keep rolling with him. Just temper those expectations. I mean, I won’t and will be running him out there in a couple of leagues (including a long-running money league where I’m facing the league leader), but please note that it has been well-established that I am 1) a homer and 2) kind of an idiot sometimes.
Running Backs
Aaron Jones (Start, Flex), AJ Dillon (Start, Flex/RB2**)
The Chiefs’ run defense may give up a little more than their pass defense (4.6 yards per carry, 113 yards per game), but that doesn’t make me particularly high on either of Green Bay’s running backs this week. Aaron Jones‘ availability is still in doubt due to a torn MCL (how does a guy with that even consider coming back in two weeks?). Meanwhile, A. J. Dillon‘s groin was giving him a tough time as the week started. I don’t love either to have brilliant outings if Jones returns and this becomes a time-share week again. I would view both as flex options then, as it’s hard to sit Jones even in a super-inconsistent year. If he plays, I have to imagine that Dillon still gets a healthy share and bruise his way to another 50-70 all-purpose yards. However, if Jones sits another week — and again, I don’t know how anything “torn” heals itself in under a month — I would push Dillon to an RB2 based on the incremental volume. This projection would be cemented by the likelihood that Green Bay will need to lean more heavily on the run game in a week in which passing yards will be harder to grab in clumps than in the previous two weeks.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
Christian Watson (Start, WR2), Romeo Doubs (Sit), Jayden Reed (Start, WR3), Dontayvion Wicks/Malik Heath (Sit), Tucker Kraft (Sit)
Normally I’m not big on “one week and it’s fixed” thinking – but with all the struggles that Christian Watson was having the whole year, the Packers just did not give up on him, and were nigh, willing him to get it straight. Last week, he absolutely did. By leading the team in targets (7), catches (5), yardage (94), and scoring his third touchdown of the year, Watson finally looked like the guy we all assumed he was going to be all year. In a game where Green Bay walks in a little outmatched (at least on paper), and with a tough passing defense to boot, I think they lean heavily on Watson and his athleticism, as well as Jayden Reed‘s utility knife of skills in a variety of manners.
However, I expect the overall yards and scoring opportunities to be a lot lower against the stout Chiefs passing defense. That said, there are a few teams sitting at home this week; your league will be without the services of your Jordan Addisons (not to mention Justin Jefferson), D. J. Moores, Zay Flowers, and Davante…you get where I’m going. In a thin week, even with a rougher matchup, I think you roll the dice on Watson and Reed being focal points and seeing the continued success they’ve both built up the past couple of weeks.
That said, after a long season of believing deeply, this is a week I wouldn’t start Romeo Doubs in a fantasy lineup. He has dropped down to the third option on this offense, and that’s with Aaron Jones out. With this week being a rougher opponent, I don’t love his endzone chances, where he has been most prolific as a contributor to fantasy squads. I just don’t love this week for Romeo….and even less so for ‘the other rookie tight end’ Tucker Kraft, who only saw two targets last week. While he converted both, one for a score, he does not look to be nearly as integral to the game script as Luke Musgrave was before injury. As for the Packers’ other two receivers of note, Dontayvion Wicks sat out last week, and Malik Heath stepped in for four catches and 46 yards. If Wicks returns, Heath likely sees the bench, and neither is a reliable fantasy option at this stage.