Game Info
Kickoff: Sunday, December 3rd, 1:00 PM EST
Location: Caesars Superdome, New Orleans, Louisiana
Betting Odds: DET -4, 46 total via Odds Shark
Network: FOX
Writer: Mario Adamo Jr. (@marioadamojr on Twitter, /u/dotcalm on Reddit)
New Orleans Saints
Quarterback
Derek Carr (Start in Superflex, QB2)
Derek Carr is an old-school automobile. He sure isn’t a sports car, as Carr has yet to crack 20 points this season. He’s your grandfather’s Corolla — he keeps running, if only barely. Even with a ton of quarterback byes this week (Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Justin Fields) I have Carr low on my list of bye-week fill-ins this week. The Lions are a favorable matchup for QBs (fifth-most points against), but that’s not enough to get me excited about starting Carr. Not to mention his weapons couldn’t be more limited with injuries to his wide receivers, more on them later. Carr is fine in 2QB leagues, but not worth a roster spot elsewhere.
Running Backs
Alvin Kamara (Start, RB1), Jamaal Williams (Sit)
There can be so much to stay about a stud like Alvin Kamara but I’ll keep it simple: Kamara has played eight games this season and has at least 17 points in seven of them. Kamara is a certified stud you’re starting every week. The wide receiver situation does not distract you. Do you want to fire up Jamaal Williams considering the void in this offense that is the wide receiver position? No, last week Williams rushed twice for six yards. I expect the tight ends and Kamara to get the bulk of the usage increase. Williams will get some usage bump I’m sure, but not enough to excite me. Even with the revenge game bump, Williams is not worth starting.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
Chris Olave (Concussion protocol), Michael Thomas (IR), Rashid Shaheed (Injured), A.T. Perry (Sit), Keith Kirkwood (Sit), Taysom Hill (Start, High-TE2), Juwan Johnson (Start, High-TE2)
The Saints wide receiver room is decimated. Chris Olave left last week’s game with a head injury and did not return. He’s currently in concussion protocol as of Wednesday afternoon. Monitor his situation closely, I would prepare for the week as if Olave misses time. Michael Thomas is on IR. Rashid Shaheed is expected to miss this week with a quad injury. A.T. Perry is the Saints’ next man up. The rookie saw two targets last week and four the week prior. He has no other targets. If I had to trust one wide receiver on this team it would be Perry, but I’d be hard-pressed to actually start him. Keith Kirkwood. Kirkwood saw three targets last week, nearly doubling his season total to a now seven. Speaking of doubling, Kirkwood has started two games this year, officially doubling his games started to four. Kirkwood entered the league in 2018 and in the year 2023, he doubled the games started in his career. I have no confidence in Kirkwood.
There aren’t many teams with two “fantasy viable” tight ends, but the Saints have flashes of being one. Both Taysom Hill and Juwan Johnson finished with eight points each last week. Taysom Hill has a higher ceiling to accompany his unpredictability. Hill’s shown he’s capable of three-game stretches of three points to go alongside his three-game stretches of 16+ points. Hill is a gamble at the tight end position. Johnson on the other hand is averaging five targets a game over the last three games. In that stretch, Johnson has an 8.5 game and a 13.9-point performance. His dud game of 1.2 points came when he only managed to catch one target. I like Johnson as a stash before the playoffs. As for this week, I give both tight ends a bump. Johnson is a more traditional pass-catcher while Hill looks to generate anything through his zaniness.
Detroit Lions
Quarterback
Jared Goff (Start, High-QB2)
After Week 10 Jared Goff was the highest-graded quarterback according to PFF. Those days are over. The pressure was too much for Goff as he threw three interceptions in Week 11, his first multi-interception game since Week 7 of last year. Last Week on Thanksgiving Goff solved his interception problem, but the monkey pawl curled as he forfeited three fumbles in their place. The Saints have a fairly middle-of-the-pack defense against quarterbacks, but the game is on the road, a place Goff has historically played worse since landing in Detriot. I predict Goff’s ceiling to be close to a QB2 range as he and the Lions try to figure things out.
Running Backs
Jahmyr Gibbs (Start, High-RB2), David Montgomery (Start, High-RB2)
After four straight weeks of 21+ points the rookie Jahmyr Gibbs came back down to earth with an 11.3 day. Gibbs still saw eight targets to pair with his eleven rush attempts, so the volume is not an issue. I expect last week to be more of a game script thing more than anything, the Packers jumped to an early 20-6 lead in the first quarter. I’m still firing up Gibbs with confidence. Meanwhile, backfield mate David Montgomery scored 15.1 points including scoring an octopus, he rushed for a touchdown and scored the two-point conversion himself. Montgomery has scored a touchdown in seven of eight games he’s played this season and will continue to have a high floor going forward.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
Amon-Ra St. Brown (Start, WR1), Josh Reynolds (Sit), Jameson Williams (Sit), Sam LaPorta (Start, TE1)
Amon-Ra St. Brown has more weekly finishes in the top four (2) than he does as WR20 or worse (1). That’s all the analysis you need for the Sun God. He’s a stud. Start him.
On Thanksgiving, Josh Reynolds found the end zone for the first time since Week 5. He finished the week as WR42. WR42 is his best weekly finish since Week 5 (16). In that stretch, he has finished as WR86, WR73, WR112, WR56, & WR47. In short, his upside is WR47. I’m sitting Reynolds. Jameson Williams was targeted thrice for the second week in a row, bringing in two of them again for the second week in a row. He found the end zone in Week 11 for a WR26 finish, but he didn’t find the end zone in Week 12 for a finish as WR60. That’s perfectly Williams: sometimes, he’ll find the end zone but not with the same consistency that he comes up empty-handed. I’m avoiding Williams.
Two straight weeks (Weeks 11 & 12) of five targets have caused Sam LaPorta’s season average to fall to seven targets per game. LaPorta looked like his usual self last week with five catches on eight targets for 47 yards and a trip to the end zone. The Saints allow the eight-most points to tight ends, I’m firing up LaPorta this and every week forward.