Game Info
Kickoff: Monday, December 4th, 8:15 PM ET
Location: EverBank Stadium Stadium, Jacksonville Florida
Betting Odds: JAX -8.5, 38 total via Odds Shark
Network: ESPN
Writer: Justin Mello (@JustinMelloNE on Twitter)
Cincinnati Bengals
Quarterbacks
Jake Browning (Start, QB2)
He barely makes the cut for me, but Jake Browning could end up being a viable QB2 this week if you don’t have any better options. Last week was far from pretty, but he was playing against a tough Pittsburgh Steeler defense which has given opposing offenses a hard time all year. He didn’t produce from a fantasy perspective, but Browning still completed 73% of his passes and threw for 227 yards. The Jaguars have allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to QBs this year, and Browning could air out the rock quite a bit as the underdog Bengals try to keep up. The former Washington Husky doesn’t have the physical skills or experience to make him an exciting start, but the favorable matchup and embarrassment of riches the Bengals have at receiver make Browning a reasonable QB2 option.
Running Backs
Joe Mixon (Start, Flex)
Long-time Bengal Joe Mixon is still unquestionably the workhorse in Cincinnati, but his situation is far from ideal. Without Joe Burrow at the helm, the peak of Mixon’s fantasy appeal has likely passed. Last week, he only carried the ball eight times despite playing 28 snaps. There is little reason to believe that his workload will increase this week as the Bengals are heavier underdogs in Jacksonville than they were last week. The silver lining is that the Jaguars run defense isn’t as stout as Pittsburgh’s which means Mixon should probably be more efficient than the two yards per carry he averaged last week. Nonetheless, the game script could be an issue and Mixon hasn’t been all that efficient this season to begin with (3.9 yards per carry on the year). It’s tough to bench him given his undisputed RB1 status for the Bengals, but he should be treated as more of a flex option than a RB1 or RB2.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
Ja’Marr Chase (Start, WR2), Tee Higgins (Start, Flex), Tyler Boyd (Sit), Tanner Hudson (Sit)
It’s a sad truth that Ja’Marr Chase’s upside is severely limited with Browning at quarterback. There still is hope that he can piece together a solid fantasy performance though. Last week, Chase had a 25% target share. It only makes sense that his young and inexperienced quarterback wants to get the ball in the hands of his best playmaker. In fact, there were two times last week where the ball was forced into coverage, but Chase was able to come down with it after being deflected by a defender. Expect similar force-feeding this week as the Bengals try to keep up with the Jaguars’ offense. The Jaguars have allowed the ninth-most fantasy points to opposing receivers this season, so Chase could still return high-end WR2 numbers despite lacking his star QB.
Tee Higgins hasn’t played with Browning yet which makes it difficult to predict his usage. Being Jake Browning’s second receiving option isn’t a great sign though. It also doesn’t help that PFF ranks Higgins’s Week 13 matchup advantage against the Jaguars as below average (46th overall) compared to other receivers. Based on pre-snap alignment, he figures to predominantly line up across from Montaric Brown which does provide some hope given Brown is probably the weakest link in Jacksonville’s secondary. There are still likely better options though, and Higgins is a risky flex play assuming he is even active. Regardless of whether or not he plays, Tyler Boyd cannot be trusted in your starting lineup. He will likely draw coverage from slot corner Tre Herndon who has played well this year, and he’s too low in Browning’s pecking order to inspire any confidence anyways.
Tanner Hudson has actually been playing behind both Irv Smith Jr. and Drew Sample this year, but he has developed into their best receiving (and therefore fantasy) tight end. Despite this, he’s still playing too few snaps in an untrustworthy offense to be started regardless of matchup. I’d look elsewhere.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Quarterback
Trevor Lawrence (Start, QB1)
It’s been a frustrating season for those who roster Trevor Lawrence (trust me, I know). At the risk of jinxing him, it seems like he may have finally figured it out. He is coming off his two best games of the season where he’s combined for 626 passing yards and three passing touchdowns to pair with an additional three scores on the ground. Will this continue? Hard to say. It’s definitely worth taking the chance this week though. The Bengals are PFF’s lowest-graded defense in coverage this season, and Lawrence should have every opportunity to pick them apart. This is as good of a week as any to start the former first-overall pick.
Running Backs
Travis Etienne Jr (Start, RB1)
Lawrence’s long-time backfield buddy has developed into a workhorse (or at least close to it) which is a huge reason why he is a RB1 just about every week. This week is especially exciting for Travis Etienne Jr. though. The Bengals have PFF’s fifth-lowest-graded run defense. In a game where the Jaguars may go into clock-killing mode down the stretch, Etienne could be in for a day of heavy usage against an inferior opponent. He is an exciting RB1 in Week 13.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
Calvin Ridley (Start, WR2), Christian Kirk (Start, WR2), Zay Jones (Sit), Evan Engram (Start, TE1)
While it was widely believed that Calvin Ridley would be the WR1 in Jacksonville this past offseason, it really has been Christian Kirk who has retained his status as Trevor Lawrence’s most productive receiver. Kirk leads the team in receptions, receiving yards, and target share. Ridley continues to play the most snaps though, and has come on strong the last two weeks just as his quarterback has. In those two games, Ridley has recorded 12 receptions for 192 yards and three touchdowns. It’s too small of a sample size to get carried away, but it appears like he may finally be taking over as Lawrence’s favorite weapon. Regardless, both should be involved against a struggling Bengals secondary and are solid WR2 plays. If I’m picking between the two, I’m leaning Ridley only because Mike Hilton is Cincinnati’s best cornerback and plays out of the slot where Kirk predominantly lines up as well.
Zay Jones has shown flashes but is now the fifth receiving option on the team and is not reliable or consistent enough to be started.
Evan Engram is putting together his second consecutive productive season in Duval County, and this week presents yet another great opportunity. The Bengals have allowed the third most fantasy points to tight ends this season. PFF ranks Engram’s matchup advantage as the seventh-best of all tight ends in Week 13. There aren’t many better options in your TE1 spot.