Game Info
Kickoff: Sunday, December 3rd, 1:00 PM EST
Location: MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ
Betting Odds: ATL -2.5, O/U 34 via OddsShark
Network: FOX
Writer: Nick Beaudoin
Atlanta Falcons
Quarterbacks
Desmond Ridder (Start, QB2)
With six teams on bye, this means statistically that only two QBs will fall outside of the QB2 range. This game may have both of them.
I’m only listing Desmond Ridder as a (QB2) start because of the aforementioned algorithm above. He will be on the road, facing a Jets defense coming in sixth to opposing fantasy QBs. The Jets have been a nightmare matchup (almost) all year, shutting down far more talented QBs than Ridder, who is averaging just 12.8 PPG this season. Ridder’s ability to make plays with his legs keeps him fantasy relevant, but we can almost certainly expect a run-centric game plan from the Falcons. Even if Ridder’s passing volume increases substantially, his ceiling is very low in a tough matchup, with a team-implied total of just 18.
Running Backs
Bijan Robinson (Start, RB1), Tyler Allgier (Start, FLEX)
Bijan Robinson SZN is finally here! Head Coach Arthur Smith must have heard our pleas, as the Falcons have finally given the reigns to their 8th overall pick, averaging 21 touches, 114.5 all-purpose yards, and 1 touchdown/game over the past two weeks. In Week 13, Bijan will take on the Jets’ run-funnel defense, currently ranking 25th against opposing RBs, with what PFF regards as the biggest OL/DL advantage in favor of Atlanta. We’ve always known Bijan has the talent as both a rusher and receiver, and with 15-20 guaranteed touches, he is a must-start RB1 moving forward, regardless of matchup.
https://twitter.com/arkeshrayyy/status/1729898141594341618
Tyler Allgier‘s touch count has scaled back with Bijan’s uptick, but is still playing a valuable role in this run-heavy offense. Quietly, he is still averaging 10.5 touches/game over the past four weeks, and has delivered FLEX value in five of the last six games. The Jets will likely be more focused on stopping the run than usual, giving Allgier a slightly lower floor, but he still has the capabilities and the offensive line advantage to keep him as a reasonable FLEX play this week.
Wide Receivers / Tight Ends
Drake London (Start, WR3), Van Jefferson (Sit), Scotty Miller (Sit), KhaDarel Hodge (Sit), Kyle Pitts (Start, TE2), Jonnu Smith (Sit, TE2)
Drake London has been criminally underused the past two seasons, but he is coming off one of his best games of this year, reeling in five receptions (seven targets) for 91 yards against the Saints. We’ve grown used to this guessing game with London, but I am not expecting a repeat this week against the Jets’ secondary, ranked number one in PPG against opposing WRs. London is the only true receiving threat in this unit, making it easy to focus on him in obvious passing situations, which is somewhere the Falcons find themselves pretty often. He will be a low-floor WR3 this week against Sauce Gardner and Co.
I hope I don’t have to do much convincing here, but you should not be starting Van Jefferson, Scotty Miller, or KhaDarel Hodge. Could a miracle happen? Of course. But this is a terrible matchup, and the floor is just too low.
The usage of Kyle Pitts and the resurgence of Jonnu Smith have been just another example of mind-boggling decision-making from Arthur Smith. Pitts was supposed to be the “Unicorn.” After a rookie year with over 1,000 yards receiving, he is now just another top-10 pick who has been left for dead on this offense. He is still averaging 5.5 targets/game, but somehow has only topped 50 yards twice this season. Although the Jets are just 21st versus opposing TEs, Pitts will likely have the focus of CJ Moseley, PFF’s 4th-ranked LB in coverage (of 78 players). This may open the door more for Jonnu, but he is also trending in the wrong direction after playing a season-low snap percentage against the Saints last week, and only has just one reception for one yard over the past two weeks. It will be hard to trust either option against New York this week.
New York Jets
Quarterbacks
Tim Boyle (Sit, QB2), Trevor Siemian (Sit)
I’d start Ridder over Tim Boyle, for whatever that’s worth.
The Falcons’ defense looked promising early in the year, but has fallen from grace over the past few weeks, currently ranking 26th to opposing QBs. Boyle played like a backup last week against the Dolphins, putting up his only score to Garrett Wilson in garbage time. Boyle has elite playmakers around him that could elevate his game and stats, but he also has an extremely low ceiling. With a team-implied total of 16, and the potential to be benched for Trevor Siemian at any point during this game, you can do better.
Running Backs
Breece Hall (Start, RB2), Dalvin Cook (Sit)
Breece Hall has been hampered by his team’s poor offensive play as of late, and that may unfortunately be the case again this week. The Falcons excel in run defense, coming in 4th to opposing RBs, and PFF has this OL/DL matchup heavily favoring Atlanta. Hall is an elite talent and should be in your lineup no matter what, but he may struggle to find running room this week in a low-scoring matchup. Regardless of matchup, I’m dialing up Hall as a solid RB2 this week.
Dalvin Cook had three touches for 21 yards last week. Despite releasing Michael Carter, the Jets have shown no interest in getting Cook more involved this season.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
Garrett Wilson (Start, Low-WR2), Allen Lazard (Sit, FLEX), Randall Cobb (Sit), Jason Brownlee (Sit), Xavier Gipson (Sit), Tyler Conklin (Start, TE2)
Garrett Wilson salvaged his day with a late touchdown grab against Miami, finishing as WR20 on the week, which is about where I’m ranking him again this week. Wilson may not be quite as dominant as we hoped this year, but talent is prevailing, and his role in the offense is enormous. Even with backup-level QB play (for the second straight year), he is still WR21 on the season. He has an absolutely elite 32.6% target share, and has seen double-digit targets in six of the last eight games. Although he may have trouble this week when lined up against AJ Terrell (PFF’s 17th-ranked coverage CB), he should be able to create mismatches against Jeff Okudah (ranked 89th in coverage) and Mike Hughes (unranked due to not reaching snap minimum). In a positive game script, look for Wilson to be a target once hog again, and another low-end WR2 finish.
.@GarrettWilson_V finding the endzone ⚡️
pic.twitter.com/gYJjiKSyoU— Ohio State Football (@OhioStateFB) November 24, 2023
Allen Lazard was a healthy scratch in Week 12, benched by Head Coach Robert Saleh as an attempt to motivate and remind the WR what he’s capable of. He should be activated again this week, but with a combined 35 yards receiving in the three games before that, he cannot be trusted in your lineups. The same can be said for Jason Brownlee, Xavier Gipson, and the ghost of Randall Cobb.
Tyler Conklin has been serviceable as the second receiving option on the Jets for most of this year. He has at least four receptions and 33 yards in three of his last four games, and the Falcons come into the week ranked 25th in PPG to opposing TEs. His matchup with LB Nate Landman (PFF’s 27th-ranked LB in coverage) favors Conklin slightly, giving him a good floor once again in a positive game script. Conklin’s lack of touchdowns (zero on the year) has held back his fantasy output, but he is a good streaming option once again on a team desperate for playmakers. Conk, Conk, Baby.
Thank you for being here, and best of luck to your teams this week!
– Nick Beaudoin