Game Info
Kickoff: Sunday, December 3, at 1:00 PM EST
Location: NRG Stadium, Houston, TX
Betting Odds: HOU -3.5 O/U 47 Total via PFF.com
Network: CBS
Writer: Matt Prendergast (@amazingmattyp on X/Twitter)
Denver Broncos
Quarterback
Russell Wilson (Start, QB2)
I’m going to start by saying this game is the one I’m looking forward to most this week — if this was the first month, this would’ve projected as a ‘movable object meets resistible force’ game, but what a difference a couple of months make. The Broncos, led by the NFL’s most irritatingly positive man Russell Wilson, might indeed be the NFL’s hottest team right now. They snapped off five wins in a row, including nailbiters against Buffalo and the Vikings, and more convincing beatings of the Chiefs and last week’s Browns. That said, Russ has been a steady presence, but for fantasy purposes, not lighting the world on fire. To wit, DangerRuss has only tossed over 200 yards once since the beginning of October (against those Vikings), is throwing 1-2 touchdowns per game in most of them, and only has one run-in as well. All this to say, this is a pretty solid matchup — the Texans are allowing 252.5 passing yards per game (but only 11 touchdowns to go with that) — but new Game Manager Russ is leading the Broncos to success on the field, without rewarding fantasy owners any of those old-timey Russ numbers. He’s a good start, but not a great one.
Running Backs
Javonte Williams (Start, Flex), Jaleel McLaughlin (Drop), Samaje Perine (Sit/Drop)
The Texans stroll into this game eighth in overall yards allowed for the season (95.0 a game). Since the bye week, however, they’ve tightened up a bit, allowing 44, 81, 66, 123 (against the Cardinals), and 81 respectively. This is a much stingier defense for opposing runners than receivers. Let’s start with an easy one — Jaleel McLaughlin, who at one point looked like he might be a threat for at LEAST a timeshare with the incumbent starter, has dropped off the map (and rosters) this past month, and in the last three weeks has amassed a total of 13 yards on 9 carries (and only seeing a total of 3 in the past two games). As a prospect or dynasty hold, he’s got value, but for winning now, there’s no point in consideration. Hot waiver wire pickup this week Samaje Perine was a good little bonus play last week for whomever was just flat out of viable starters last week, but for those of us still competing, he was on your wire — and that’s probably where he should stay. A one-week performance does not a season of irrelevance erase. Which brings us to Javonte Williams. Look, I really want him to break out, he shows flashes all the time…but he’s got a total of two touchdowns this season (both receiving) and has a high-water mark of 85 yards this year, and that was on a workhorse 27-carry week against KC a month back. He’s averaging a 48% snap count, and there’s just not enough production on the paper to think he’s going to break through against a stout Texans’ run defense.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
Courtland Sutton (Start, WR3), Jerry Jeudy (Start, Flex), Marvin Mims (Sit), Adam Trautman (Sit)
So one of the more astonishing things about this Denver run as of late is that they are doing so without any particular player doing much to contribute week-in and week-out. Except for Courtland Sutton. Sutton has scored a touchdown in 8 of the Broncos 11 games so far (and narrowly missed out on making that nine last week on a little-too-far-over-oops-I’m-on-the-sideline-now grab in that Browns game. He leads the Broncos in targets, averaging 6.2 per game, and he’s very much playing the part of Russ’ emergency go-to when he absolutely needs a touchdown. However, he’s averaging just 50.9 yards for the season (push that up to 60 per game over the last three, if you want a more recent sample) — that’s prime WR3 real estate, and that’s where you should be using him. Jerry Jeudy trails him a bit, seeing 5.3 targets per game over the season, but I’m more concerned with the three each he saw against the Browns, and two weeks prior in Buffalo — Jeudy has only touched grass in the endzone once all year. I’d recommend a sit, but there are quite a few receivers out this week, and the Broncos should be forced to throw a little more this week, so he’s an outside recommend in a flex spot, but man alive I do not trust him. As for Marvin Mims — those fun bursts back in September seem so long ago — Denver hasn’t figured out a spot for him yet, and it doesn’t appear they will soon (since October, Mims has seen an average of 1.7 targets over seven games). I look forward to future Mims, but 2023 Mims isn’t worth the time. Adam Trautman remains Adam Trautman. He scored a touchdown last week. He also scored one on October 8. He’s averaged 1.5 catches for 15.25 yards per game over the last month. Look for Tight End to be an offseason need.
Houston Texans
Quarterbacks
C. J. Stroud (Start, QB1)
Even in a loss last week against Jacksonville, CJ Stroud continues to impress and support the argument for weekly starts. Last week’s outing gave his loyal supporters 304 yards, two passing touchdowns, and a rushing score to boot (and that’s CJ’s third in the past five games). While the Denver passing defense is currently playing pretty solidly, I’m past playing the ‘better matchup’ card with CJ. He’s earned my trust, and should yours as well. He’s as solid a consistent fantasy start at the position as there is lately, and he’s outscoring perennial must-start-under-all-costs Patrick Mahomes regularly. In fact, I don’t see that outside of Josh Allen, Jalen, and Dak, there’s anybody I’d run with starting over CJ at this point in the season. The halftime team on one of the networks last week — those shows all blur together after a while — put it most succinctly in noting (and I’m paraphrasing a bit here) ‘everyone keeps expecting him to hit ‘the rookie wall’, but he doesn’t seem to have one.’
Running Backs
Devin Singletary (Start, RB2), Dameon Pierce (Sit)
While I didn’t expect another hundred-yard outing from Devin Singletary last week against the Jaguars, I did kind of hope he a) wouldn’t split carries quite so evenly with the (disappointingly) returning sad memory of a draft pick squandered that is Dameon Pierce, 2023 toilet edition, and b) if that did come to pass, Devin wouldn’t revert to ‘the other Dameon Pierce’ role he had been playing in their previous time-share adventures. Alas, we can’t have nice things — at least not on the ground, where Singletary’s six carries for 18 yards narrowly edged out Pierce’s five carries for 14 in the ‘production?’ category. Not all was lost, however! Our hero Devin DID come in second on the squad in receptions and targets (six for seven) and added 54 yards to the effort. And for the record, Devin KILLED Dameon in the snap count category — he was on the field for 82% of the plays, while Pierce sopped up the remaining 18%. Denver has ceded 192, 175, and 197 yards to opposing run games over the last three weeks, and I expect Singletary to bounce back big this week for his fantasy faithful, while Dingleber—uh, Pierce, will cozy up a little more to his backup role.
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
Tank Dell (Start, WR2), Nico Collins (Start, WR2), Noah Brown/Robert Woods(Sit), Dalton Schultz (Start, TE2)
I REALLY, REALLY, REALLY want to recommend Tank Dell as a WR1 this week. In his last four fantasy outputs (per a PPR Sleeper league set to our system), he’s averaged 23.65 points. While two of those weeks dipped a smidge below the twenty-point threshold, he’s as hot a receiver as I’ve seen this year….but Denver has only allowed an average of 158 yards per game over the last three games. GRANTED, two of those games were against ‘Comet at the End of its Trail’ Josh Dobbs, and a combination of Dorian Thompson-Robinson’s first career game and PJ Walker’s whole career. But they did shut down Josh Allen pretty well three weeks back, and before the bye, only let Pat Mahomes get 62 on them. They’re stronger in the passing game, regardless. As such, while I still expect Tank to be efficient, but a little more down-to-earth this week — he’s nursing a bit of a calf injury as well. Besides, if Tank isn’t going to get the Broncos, Nico Collins will get a few shots in to help the effort too. Collins led the Texans last week with 104 yards on seven for nine receiving and grabbed a touchdown. If Noah Brown comes back this week, or it’s Robert Woods again, I’m not really tempted by either — both are the fifth or sixth option at this point, and Brown’s pre-injury sizzle has got to have cooled off being on the shelf for the last couple of weeks, regardless. Dalton Schultz has dropped off the radar considerably the past two weeks, seeing only 2 and 3 targets respectively, but he remains a solid option on a team that throws to whoever gets the best matchup — per PFF.com’s matchup chart, Schultz has a mild advantage this week against Denver, and with five touchdowns on the year has a decent chance to score at a position where there aren’t a plethora of consistent performers this season.